Monday Night Football DFS Showdown Week 16
Thursday Night Showdown: Packers vs. Saints Breakdown
We have an intriguing matchup tonight with the Green Bay Packers favored by a hefty 14 points over the injury-plagued New Orleans Saints. The Saints are without Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and Alvin Kamara, leaving them in a challenging position to compete.
Slate Overview
With Green Bay heavily favored, the field is expected to lean Packers-heavy, with Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love projected as the most popular Captain options. The chalk lineup constructions will gravitate towards 4-3 and 5-2 Packers-focused builds.
On the Saints’ side, QB Spencer Rattler and RB Kendre Miller will likely garner the most attention. While Rattler is projected to be the highest-owned Saint, he’s also the safest choice. Given the expected game script where New Orleans is trailing and forced to throw, Rattler offers solid volume-based upside. On the other hand, I’m fading Kendre Miller due to the negative game script and limited opportunities.
Strategy: Attack the Slate
In a game like this, it’s tough to stray too far from the field’s expectations, as Green Bay should dominate. However, there are two distinct ways to attack this slate:
1. All-In on Josh Jacobs at Captain
Jacobs at Captain allows you to lean into a script where the Packers dominate time of possession while the Saints struggle to move the ball. Pair Jacobs with the Packers’ defense to capitalize on turnovers or a potential defensive score. For the Saints, Spencer Rattler becomes a near lock for me in this build, as the volume should be there in a pass-heavy script. Simulations consistently show this combination as optimal for tonight’s contest.
2. Low-Owned Captain Options
To differentiate, consider going with a tight end at Captain. Juan Johnson has seen increased usage in the Saints’ depleted offense, and Tyler Kraft has emerged as Green Bay’s top tight end. Captaining a low-owned TE opens salary flexibility for high-upside Flex options while giving you a chance at a slate-breaking performance.
Ownership Projections
Captain:
- Josh Jacobs: 35%
- Jordan Love: 17%
- Christian Watson: 7%
Flex:
- Jordan Love: 57%
- Josh Jacobs: 50%
- Spencer Rattler: 34%
- Christian Watson: 32%
- Jayden Reed: 32%
By leveraging game script insights and ownership trends, you can build lineups that balance optimal plays with contrarian upside. Best of luck tonight!
