Saturday Night DFS Showdown
Lions at Cowboys (-5.5)
O/U 52.5
All right we have a great game on the docket tonight, with Detroit headed to Dallas on Saturday Night. Both teams still have a lot to pay for: Detroit has clinched their division but they have a good chance at the #2 seed in the playoffs and are a long shot for the #1 seed. Dallas is still battling for their division and needs this game to keep pace with the Eagles. Dallas is 7-0 at home this season, and they destroy visiting teams, scoring over 40 points a game. Detroit’s offense is good, if they don’t turn the ball over, and can easily keep pace. They have also changed their defense in the last couple of weeks, bringing more blitzes and pressures, and selling out to stop the run. I am worried they may have to back off with all the injuries in the secondary.
Overall, Dallas is the 2nd highest-ranked offense in the league and the Lions are 5th. Since Week 8, the Cowboys are ranked 25th in defense and the Lions are 26th. Both teams have a weakness in the middle of the field. Last week Tua tore up Dallas here and Nick Mullens threw for over 400 yards in this area against Detroit. We also have the news that Cam Sutton is a game-time decision for the Lions. If he is limited or out, Detroit is down to their #3 and #4 corners.
I see two scenarios. Dallas blows away Detroit (like Baltimore did) or the game is a shootout (like Det/Sea). With Detroit’s secondary severely injured I don’t see a scenario where Dallas doesn’t score through the passing game, taking a Lions blowout off the board.
Dallas plays a man-to-man defense most of the time, which has been the most challenging for Detroit this season. But Detroit has their entire starting offensive line, which is one of the best in the league, keeping Goff clean last week against the blitz-happy Vikings, so I don’t expect a lot of sacks.
The path to a Detroit win is to run the ball. Dallas has been vulnerable to run and using up the game clock keeps Dak Prescott and the Dallas passing offense out of the game. This brings both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to the top of the player pool. If the game shoots out and the Lions have to pass more to keep up, lean towards Gibbs. With Dallas’ man-to-man defense and soft middle defense, San Laporta is my favorite Lions receiver.
For Dallas to win they will have to pass the ball, and that suits them fine. CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott top my list followed by Ferguson and Brandin Cooks. Lamb is the most expensive player today, so I won;t play him a lot in Captain and I prefer to pay down to Dak or Ferguson.
All the players I have mentioned so far are high-priced, except Cooks, so we need some value. Both kickers are in play and so is Dallas’ defense, especially in Dallas stacks. I also love Jameson Williams at only $3200 for Detroit. His usage has been increasing every week and he is the fastest player in the game. I can see him scoring on a Jet Sweep.
Let’s get to the player pool and some sample lineups. Good Luck!
My Favorite Plays
CeeDee Lamb
Dak Prescott (Cpt)
Jahmyr Gibbs (Cpt)
David Montgomery
Jake Ferguson (Cpt)
Sam LaPorta (Cpt)
Second Tier Plays
Jared Goff
Amon-Ra St Brown
Brandin Cooks
Tony Pollard
Dallas DST
Value Plays
Jameson Williams
Brandon Aubrey
Michael Badgley
Josh Reynolds
Michael Gallup
My Main Lineup
Jake Ferguson (CPT)
Dak Prescott
CeeDee Lamb
Brandin Cooks
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jameson Williams
Dallas Onslaught
CeeDee Lamb (CPT)
Dak Prescott
Brandin Cooks
Michael Gallup
Dallas DST
Jahmyr Gibbs
Detroit Run Attack
David Montgomery (CPT)
Jahmyr Gibbs
Sam LaPorta
Michael Badgley
Jameson Williams
CeeDee Lamb