Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and welcome back to my weekly Start/Sit HUB! Mike here, providing you with information that can help you win your fantasy league week in and week out. For all things fantasy football, follow me on Twitter (@FantasyHubbard).
It’s already Thanksgiving 2023. Time to feast on food, football, friends, and family. All. 3 games have potential to be blowouts or could turn into one possession finishes. I’m here every week during the fantasy football season with start and sit suggestions that can impact your team each week. My decisions as always include obvious and not so obvious picks. I would also like to clarify that my sit suggestions are based on the assumption you have or can add a player that has a better chance at success. Good luck this week and continue to check out my weekly articles.
THANKSGIVING START/SIT
Packers @ Lions
Start – David Montgomery – Montgomery must be on a high after scoring the winning TD against his former Bears team. This week he gets the soft run defense that is the Packers. The Packers average nearly 135 yards rushing allowed each game with is bottom 5 in the NFL. Due to injury David has only played in 7 games this season. He has 8 TDs in 7 games, all rushing. Montgomery should be able to feast today.
Sit – AJ Dillon – Dillon is RB1 this week for Green Bay with Aaron Jones not playing. Detroit won’t be easy to run on given they allow under 90 rushing yards per game this season. These teams already met back in week 4 when the Lions won by 14 points. Dillon had a season low 5 carries in that game for 11 rushing yards and didn’t catch his only target. Love will need to air it out in this one which doesn’t benefit AJ much. Keep an eye on his game status if you must, he has been dealing with a groin injury.
Commanders @ Cowboys
Start – Dak Prescott – Dak has had solid performances recently, in fact his last 5 games were all impressive. He lost to the Eagles but not by much and has done what’s needed to put his team in position to win. Dak’s last 5 games included 14 passing TDs with 2 rushing TDs as well. Washington gives up the most points to opposing QBs by way of passing TDs and passing yards per game. Dak should benefit from all that is going right for him, although you could argue just about any offensive Cowboy would be in solid position to excel on Thanksgiving.
Sit – Sam Howell – Howell faces the Cowboys for the first of 2 meetings this season between the NFC East rivals. Cowboys’ defense is no joke, and it is in Dallas on a holiday. Howell throws a ton which is great for his fantasy owners, but he will be facing the best defense he has seen this year other than maybe Buffalo in week 3 when Sam had 170 passing yards and 4 INTs. I would avoid Howell this thanksgiving if you have options for week 12.
49ers @ Seahawks
Start – George Kittle – Kittle has been scorching hot for the 49ers in their last 4 games played. He has combined for 432 receiving yards over that time and George has found the end zone in his latest 2 games. The Seahawks are middle of the pack when it comes to defending opposing TEs so another big game would not surprise me. CMC is the obvious must play here, but the 49ers have offensive weapons where any of them can go off any game. Fire up Kittle with confidence.
Sit – Geno Smith – Geno has had trouble with his elbow recently so it would be smart to monitor his health up until game time. The 49ers are a top 5 overall defense in the NFL and Geno has to play them 2 times in 3 weeks. Easy game in-between? Nope its Dallas. Geno is in for a tough 3 game stretch and will need Lockett and Metcalf to have productive games. Geno is outside my top 20 QBs in week 12.
Happy Saturday! Hope you had a great week and holiday. Welcome back to my Start/Sit Hub. Week 12 began with 4 games on Thanksgiving/Black Friday. The Packers shocked the Lions, the Cowboys murdered the Commanders, the 49ers murdered the Seahawks, and the Dolphins then murdered the Jets. 3 of the 4 games were decided by 18+ points. We only get one TNF game next week which will be between the Seahawks and the Cowboys.
The games that I’m looking forward to watching in week 12 include the Bills/Eagles, the Steelers/Bengals, the Jaguars/Texans, and the Ravens/Chargers. Enjoy your weekend of football and good luck getting that fantasy W.
START OF THE WEEK
Start – Jaylen Warren – Warren continues to impress scoring a TD in 2 consecutive games and crossing the century mark in rushing. Warren has caught a pass in every game played this season and his numbers are better than Najee Harris. Harris has 48 more rushing attempts as Warren, but only 6 more actual rushing yards. Both have 3 rushing TDs and Warren owns every receiving stat over Najee this season. Safe to say Warren should continue to get chances.
Saints @ Falcons
Start – Rashid Shaheed – Shaheed takes on the Falcons this week who just allowed Trey McBride to go off on them and he is a TE pass catcher. I think Shaheed can grab more targets with the absence of Michael Thomas. I really like Kamara and Olave here too, and even Taysom Hill is a nice option here. Shaheed got 9 targets last game which was tied for most with Olave, so I’m thinking he keeps up those targets this week and makes the most of his opportunity.
Sit – Kyle Pitts – Pitts is taking on the Saints who he will play again in the last game of the season. Kyle has been actually really consistent. Just consistently average. He has 5 targets exactly in each of his last 4 and converted those targets into 3 receptions each game with the exception of a game with 4 receptions. If you take Pitts average over the last 4 weeks it comes out to 5 targets, 3.25 receptions, and 42 receiving yards. Pitts is #17 in fantasy points this season for TEs through 11 weeks. Manage any expectations.
Steelers @ Bengals
Start – Jaylen Warren – SEE START OF THE WEEK ABOVE
Sit – Diontae Johnson – I think the Steelers are going to go run heavy in this game with the absence of Joe Burrow for Cinci. That doesn’t bode too well for Johnson, along with his last 2 game performances. Although 12 combined targets in his last 2 games, he only caught 3 of those passes for 33 yards. There is no hiding that Pickett isn’t anywhere near his best form, making it even more appealing for Pittsburgh to run more.
Panthers @ Titans
Start – Derrick Henry – This is a fantastic matchup for Henry to exploit. Panthers have a hard time shutting down RBs this season. Henry has double digit carries in every game this season and has a reception in all but 1 game. I’m expecting a heavy dose of the run for the Titans this week. Carolina gives up the most rushing TDs per game this season which currently sits at 1.6 TDs. They are also in the bottom 10 teams allowing 129 rushing yards per game.
Sit – Miles Sanders – Sanders had 10 carries in week 11 and converted those into 50 rushing yards. He hasn’t had double digit caries since week 4 and hasn’t hit 50 rushing yards since week 1. Sanders is clearly at best in a committee with Chuba Hubbard who are both on a bad team. I think Bryce Young and Adam Thielen need to connect early and often to make them a threat to win this game.
Buccaneers @ Colts
Start – Baker Mayfield – I like the way Baker has been playing recently. He was rough against the 49ers, but for good reason. He gets the Colts defense this week which can look average a lot of the time. Baker has 15 passing TDs this season with multiple in 5 of his games. Mayfield and Evans seem to connect well so I will be looking for that connection to continue. Baker doesn’t have any rushing TDs, although that could change if he continues to average over 4 caries each game.
Sit – Zach Moss – Zach Moss has a tough matchup with Tampa’s rush defense, but with the addition of healthy Jonathan Taylor it seems as if Moss is becoming more and more irrelevant. Just the 1 carry last week and just 8 carries for 28 yards since week 8 when he last was productive and scored. The window might have shut for his fantasy appeal, but he is just one JT injury away from that role again.
Patriots @ Giants
Start – Rhamondre Stevenson – Its usually a pleasure to play the Giants in the last so many years, and Sunday shouldn’t be too different. These teams aren’t anywhere near where they were when they met in the Superbowl twice. Stevenson should be able to run over New York and don’t sleep on Zeke Elliot who has been scoring on the Giants for years. Rhamondre had a season high 20 carries last game and has back-to-back 87+ yard games. His appeal comes in the pass game too, having 3 games this season with over 40 receiving yards.
Sit – Wan’Dale Robinson – Robinson doesn’t have a bad matchup with New England, but not sure which DeVito will be at QB, the 3 passing TD DeVito or the 2 INT DeVito. Another week of benching all Giants not named Saquon Barkley. Bill Belichick usually is able to take away his opponents’ best player, and if that happens it could get ugly. However, neither team is playing well so low scoring and minimal stats could easily come to fruition.
Jaguars @ Texans
Start – CJ Stroud – Stroud has been great this season, however his last 2 games weren’t ideal. 4 INTs in those 2 games was a low point. Jacksonville is a great team to throw on so Stroud should continue to throw and build up that confidence again. Tank Dell is emerging for him, Dalton Schultz is playing rejuvenated football, and Stroud looks ahead of his time. Stroud has reached 300+ passing yards in 5 games this season and has 3 in a row looking for a 4th.
Sit – Trevor Lawrence – Lawrence actually scored multiple TDs last game which had only ever happened twice this season back in week 6 and week 1. Houston has proven to be a team you can’t sleep on, and you have to score on them a lot because they seem to be in every game late. Since week 4 the Jags have won 4 of their 6 games and all have been one possession ball games to finish.
Browns @ Broncos
Start – David Njoku – Njoku was targeted 15 times in week 11 and that turned into a season high 7 receptions. He had 56 receiving yards which gives him 50+ yards in 4 of his last 5. Thompson-Robinson was dropping the ball off to Njoku repeatedly since Deshaun Watson was placed on IR. David is just outside the top 10 TEs this season.
Sit – Amari Cooper – Basically I have the same reasoning to bench Amari and start Njoku. Thompson-Robinson linked up with Elijah Moore and Njoku more than Cooper. New QB is not an upgrade for Cooper but a significant downgrade. Denver has been playing really well since their embarrassing loss earlier in the season and should be in a good position to keep the Browns score down.
Rams @ Cardinals
Start – Kyle Murray – Kyle Murray is back and is about to lay his 3rd game this season. He takes on the Rams who have a solid defense. Problem for LA is that Murray can use his feet and his arm to hurt you and you can ask Kyles last 2 opponents about that after he ran a TD in each game to start his season. Murray and McBride are playing great together.
Sit – Marquise Brown – Brown is in my sit spot, and it doesn’t feel right. When I think of the Cardinals I think of Murray and Brown linking for 6. Well, that hasn’t been the case in Murrays first 2 games back. Brown has been targeted 9 times and caught only 3 of them for 46 yards and no scores. The Rams will most likely keep Hollywood in check like most have. Can’t trust Brown yet like I used to. Marquise is also working with a heel injury so make sure you check his status before gametime.
Chiefs @ Raiders
Start – Isiah Pacheco – I thought and expected Pacheco to have a bad day against the Eagles last week and he responded with his 2nd highest number of carries this season and 2nd highest rushing yards for him this season. Vegas has trouble defending the run so I’m expecting Mahomes to hand it off quite a bit. Chiefs are going to want to take out some anger after their Superbowl rematch loss. Pacheco just needs to play as hard as he did last week, and his ceiling will continue to grow.
Sit – Jakobi Meyers – Meyers welcome back to the sit spot. Jakobi started the year red hot and played well until week 8 and on. After being targeted 10+ times in 4 separate games in the first 7 weeks, Meyers seems to have hit a brick wall. He has 9 receptions in his previous 4 games adding up to 127 total receiving yards. The Raiders have said that they want to continue to go back to their run heavy offense whenever they can which helps Josh Jacobs and most likely hurts Meyers.
Bills @ Eagles
Start – DeVonta Smith – Smith is in my start spot again because Goedert is still supposedly out, and Smith seemed to be the main beneficiary of that. Smith has 99 receiving yards in 2 of his last 3 games and also has 2 receiving TDs in 2 of his last games. Buffalo has shown they can manhandle a team with their defense, but Philly knows their offense is elite and get to play at home. I like a big game from DeVonta this weekend.
Sit – James Cook – Cook is getting the Isiah Pacheco treatment I wrote last week. Eagles don’t allow much rushing yards each game. Pacheco had to prove me wrong, but the Eagles should be more prepared and eager for this week with James Cook. James is coming off back-to-back great games, but if I’m Buffalo I’m throwing downfield early and often.
Ravens @ Chargers
Start – Zay Flowers – Flowers is one of the most electric WRs in his rookie class. When Zay gets targets, Zay gets results. Zay plays LA this week who love to give up yards and scores to opposing teams. Flowers should benefit from Mark Andrews injury from a fantasy perspective. Flowers has 30 more targets than any other pass catcher able to play this week. Zay leads his team in targets, receptions, receiving yards. Mark Andrews led his team with 6 receiving TDs but without him there, Lamar Jackson will have to look elsewhere, and you know Flowers will be waiting for it.
Sit – Isiah Likely – Likely was supposed to be the main beneficiary of the Mark Andrews injury given he is TE #2 on the Ravens. Isiah had a 4-reception game for 42 yards in week 9 this year. Other than week 9, Likely had just 1 reception or less in every game played. This is a great spot for Likely to get his game going, but I think others benefit more than him until we see more time played.
Bears @ Vikings
Start – Josh Dobbs – Dobbs just continues to fight. The QB starting for Minnesota has a rushing TD in 5 consecutive games. He has 11 total TDs in his last 5 games compared to just 3 INTs. Dobbs gets the Bears this week where he can score his 6th rushing TD consecutively. Justin Jefferson is listed as questionable right now, but if he goes then Dobbs appeal just grows higher.
Sit – KJ Osborn – Osborn is in my sit spot mostly due to the fact that Jefferson might return to the field this weekend and give less chances for KJ. Hard to get attention when you are surrounded by the running Josh Dobbs and his pas catchers that include Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Jordan Addison.