DFS Building Blocks – Week 17

Our Geno + Goodwin chalk was a bust, but our studs and duds lineup with Jefferson, Chase, Kittle cashed nicely. Jefferson was good. Chase was a bust, it was actually Kittle + Dotson that made the difference.

Initial Reactions

A couple of clear top games should draw people’s attention. CHI @ DET and MIN @ GB. And should be some chalk at RB with Brian Robinson a good option and Tyler Allgeier likely to draw some focus as well. And people will be jamming in Justin Jefferson as he chases 2,000 yards.

Game Overviews

Detroit Lions *	Chicago Bears	-6(-110)	-275	29.25	52.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions *	6(-110)	220	23.25	52.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

The clear top game of the week is full of players who have put up some big points this year. On FD, I’m probably locking in Fields + Kmet. But Goff is very cheap on DK, so I’ll likely start with him there. It looks like St. Brown is going to be the most popular WR at around 25% ownership. That’s a big number and we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact he’s only hit 3x this price twice this year! That’s not good for his level of ownership. Chark has only hit 3x once, but he makes a nice pivot when considering ownership. And Swift, who has been getting a lot of targets, makes a nice pivot on DK, in what would also be a unique Goff + Swift pairing. Jamaal Williams is also cheaper than Swift on FD and expected to come in at lower ownership.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Fields + Chark + Kmet

Goff + Swift + Kmet

Fields + Swift + Chark + Kmet

Goff + St. Brown + Chark

Fields + Williams + Kmet

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Fields

St. Brown

Chark

Williams

Swift

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Herbert

Goff + Herbert + St. Brown/Chark

Green Bay Packers *	Minnesota Vikings	-3(-115)	-175	25.25	47.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 05:25
Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers *	3(-105)	145	22.25	47.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 05:25

Minnesota secondary is not good and Rodgers and the Packers have been coming on, but that’s largely been (at least by perception) because of Christian Watson. Watson is questionable, but even if he plays, he’s only hit 3x his price twice this year. I’ll stay away from him and I’ll soften my Packers interest, although a Rodgers + Lazard + Doubs stack is attractively priced on DK and isn’t a bad option if you’re going to force in Justin Jefferson. Dalvin Cook is also in play against a poor Packers run D and would be a nice pivot if Jaire Alexander was correct and his first matchup against Jefferson was a fluke. Cook is coming in at really low ownership because the focus is on Jefferson and because there are other chalk value RBs this week. I’ll stay away from Hockenson after he finally had Adam Thielen’s two-TD game last week. I like Lazard the most as a one-off play because he has good TD potential. You can also play either Jones or Dillon in hopes the Packers play their traditional run-first game and try to slow the game down; good luck picking the right one though, unless Jones is limited. GB needs to win. MIN doesn’t, but perhaps they just pepper Jefferson with targets, not caring whether they actually win or not.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Rodgers + Cook + Lazard

Rodgers + Lazard + Doubs + Jefferson

Rodgers + Cook + Lazard + Doubs

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Cook

Jefferson

Lazard

Hockenson

Dillon/Jones

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Cousins + Thielen + Lazard

Cobb

Osborn

Thielen

Kansas City Chiefs *	Denver Broncos	-12.5(-110)	-800	28.75	45	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs *	12.5(-110)	550	16.25	45	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

Let Russ cook. Playing the Chiefs on the road isn’t a great situation, but we should know a little more about whether the problem in Denver was Hackett or Russ. Dulcich is out, which will hurt Russ, but let’s us focus more on Jeudy and Sutton. On the KC side, Kelce is always in play. I like a JuJu bounce-back this week – especially after telling a user to play JuJu instead of Devontae Smith last week (they still won and made it to the championship). McKinnon is in play, but this could be a week to go back to Pacheco with such a large spread.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Wilson + Jeudy + JuJu

Wilson + Jeudy + Sutton + Kelce

Mahomes + JuJu + Kelce

Mahomes + JuJu + Jeudy

Pacheco + Chiefs DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kelce

JuJu

Pacheco

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Tomlinson

Wilson + Jeudy + JuJu + Tomlinson

Houston Texans *	Jacksonville Jaguars	3(-105)	145	20	43	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
Jacksonville Jaguars	Houston Texans *	-3(-115)	-175	23	43	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

The Jags have been passing (note Engram and Zay Jones game logs) but this is a running matchup. Enter Etienne, who should be very popular this week, unless people think the Jags rest their starters at some point. Lawrence is too cheap on DK, but not as cheap as Goff. I’m probably staying away from this game given the Bears and Lions game, but if going here, you can take the unique QB + RB + WR stack of Lawrence + Etienne + Zay Jones ( + Cooks).

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Lawrence + Etienne + Jones + Cooks

Lawrence + Jones + Cooks + Engram

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Etienne

Zay Jones

Engram

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Mills + Etienne + Cooks

Las Vegas Raiders *	San Francisco 49ers	9.5(-110)	333	16.5	42.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 05:05
San Francisco 49ers	Las Vegas Raiders *	-9.5(-110)	-450	26	42.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 05:05

This is a strange game with Carr being benched in Las Vegas. This should be a 49ers DEF domination, which we normally like to pair with an RB. The problem is the 49ers don’t really need to push McCaffrey, so unless we get some quick TDs from him he may not get the volume we need to pay off. There is a chance the 49ers push longer than expected to get more reps for Purdy, and we could see Kittle and Aiyuk score well, but I’ll pass on them, especially after we hit on Kittle’s big week last week. It should go without saying that we should pass on all Raiders player this week outside of extreme lottery pick lineups. I don’t mind the option of Mason + 49ers DEF, following similar logic as our Malik Davis play last week. Bonus is that you open up a lot of other salary and get to a pretty unique lineup build. Just know you’re gambling on whether Mason or Davis-Price is the number two this week. But they may both be able to pay off given the matchup.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

49ers DEF + CMC/Mason/Davis-Price

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kittle

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Seattle Seahawks *	New York Jets	1.5(-110)	105	20.5	42.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 05:05
New York Jets	Seattle Seahawks *	-1.5(-110)	-125	22	42.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 05:05

I don’t like much from this game. I think the Mike White hype will start to die down as the reality of his career backup status will start to catch up to him and the Jets. This matchup looks good on paper, but Seattle DEF is still decent enough that I expect this game to stay low scoring and disappoint any DFS owners. That said, it is a tight spread, so if you want to take some shots on it shooting out, go for it, but I won’t be.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Corey Davis

White + Moore + Davis

Smith + Goodwin + Fant + Wilson/Moore/Davis

Los Angeles Chargers *	Los Angeles Rams	-6.5(-110)	-300	24.25	42	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 05:25
Los Angeles Rams	Los Angeles Chargers *	6.5(-110)	230	17.75	42	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 05:25

This game feels like a trap after the Rams put up so many points last week and the Chargers generally disappointing each week. Akers finally had a big game, but can he repeat that? Higbee seems much less likely to repeat. Can the Chargers key players passing game players finally put up a big game? I’m likely staying away from this game, but if you want to take a shot go for it.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Herbert + Akers + Allen

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Akers

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Palmer

Herbert + Akers + Allen

Mayfield + Jefferson + Allen/Williams

Atlanta Falcons *	Arizona Cardinals	-5.5(-110)	-250	23.5	41.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons *	5.5(-110)	190	18	41.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

Allgeier has picked up some popularity this week, especially on DK because of his price. I typically think this game is going to be slower paced with Atlanta running the ball a ton, which, obviously, benefits Allgeier. Blough is slated to start for the Cardinals, making him the fourth (?) string QB… that said, Dortch is set to start for Moore (and Hopkins is out) and is priced way down the list. He makes sense on the other side of Allgeier. Or as a stand-alone play. Conner has some popularity but I’m going to play this as Atlanta controls things and Blough passes a ton, with, hopefully, Dortch catching a ton. London is popular because of the target share he’s been getting, but Arizona is decent against WRs so I’ll skip him.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Allgeier + Dortch

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Allgeier

Dortch

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Blough + Allgeier + Dortch

Conner + London

Ridder + Conner + London

Philadelphia Eagles *	New Orleans Saints	-6(-105)	-250	23.75	41.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles *	6(-115)	200	17.75	41.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

I started the week thinking about Miles Sanders and the Eagles DEF, which may be where I end up still. I don’t expect Minshew and the Eagles to need to put up as many points as last week and Minshew did turn the ball over enough, that it’s easy for me to skip him again. But you can play this as a full stack if you want as Brown and Smith are both expected to be under 10% ownership. You can also play Taysom Hill this week as he’s desperately needed in the running game and that’s the Saints best hope of scoring any points.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Sanders + Eagles DEF

Sanders + Hill

Minshew + Brown + Smith + Hill

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Sanders

Hill

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Dalton + Olave/Shaheed + Brown/Smith

New England Patriots *	Miami Dolphins	-2.5(-110)	-145	21.75	41	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots *	2.5(-110)	120	19.25	41	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

I’ll actually be attending this game tomorrow so I’m more likely to reach and take some shots here just so I have a rooting interest. Even with that said, Stevenson is really popular this week, which is surprising given the matchup. The strength of the Dolphins is the run D, but the Patriots should know they can’t keep up through their passing game, even with Teddy B starting at QB. Adding to this, Stevenson was limited this week and Harris practiced again. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Harris return to at least a 50% share with potential for more if Stevenson is hurt. And, while not the most likely path, if Harris falls into two TDs, he’s a great leverage play at near-zero ownership.

The Patriots defense has done well limiting opponents but most opponents don’t have a pairing like Hill and Waddle. Either could still post a big game, leaving me looking to ownership for an edge. Hill is expected for around 7% ownership, while Waddle is down under 3%. Sign me up.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Harris + Waddle

Meyers + Waddle/Hill

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Harris

Meyers

Hill

Waddle

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Harris + Patriots DEF

Jones + Meyers + Waddle/Hill

Bridgewater + Harris + Waddle + Hill

Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	Carolina Panthers	-4(-110)	-200	22.25	40.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	4(-110)	165	18.25	40.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

Are the Bucs finally due? The Panthers corners are hurt, so if not now, when? This game should be lower scoring and slower paced with the Panthers not able to put up points, but we can still take some shots on the Bucs.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Fournette + Bucs DEF

Brady + Fournette + Evans/Godwin

Brady + Evans + Godwin + Bucs DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Fournette

Evans

Godwin

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Brady + Evans + Godwin + Moore

Washington Commanders *	Cleveland Browns	-2(-110)	-125	21.25	40.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
Cleveland Browns	Washington Commanders *	2(-110)	105	19.25	40.5	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

Brian Robinson without Gibson looks good on paper, but he doesn’t have a stranglehold on all the touches and it’s still a low-scoring game so he may not have the upside we need him to have. And he’s near 20% ownership meaning he’s not sneaking up on anyone and has a higher than realized probability of being a bust. That makes this a game we can just avoid altogether, but it does have a tight spread and could shootout if everything goes right. I won’t be going  here but it’s the type of game that does make a good lottery-pick stack.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Robinson

Samuel

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Chubb + Browns DEF

Robinson + Washington DEF

Watson + Cooper + Samuel

Watson + Robinson + Cooper/DPJ

New York Giants *	Indianapolis Colts	-6(-105)	-250	22.5	39	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00
Indianapolis Colts	New York Giants *	6(-115)	200	16.5	39	Sun, Jan 1, 2023 02:00

You can take a shot on Barkley with more TD upside this week in a game the Giants need to win, but I’ll be staying away. If you do go to Barkley, might as well pair with the Giants DEF.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Barkley + Giants DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley

Richie James

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Moss

Jones + Moss + James

Foles + Barkley + Pittman

The Lineup Build

FD

I’m still playing around with things, but I have two primary builds right now.

Fields + Kmet + St. Brown. Robinson. Harris + Waddle. Sanders + Eagles. Then playing around with a final WR.

Fields + Chark. Harris + Waddle. Taysom Hill (dropping Kmet). Barkley + Giants. Mason at RB. Then needing a final WR still. This is certainly more studs and duds and the stud, Barkley, is in the lowest scoring game of the week. But we should be uncomfortable with our lineups if we want to win first place.

Both have Harris (who is great leverage but not necessary) and Waddle. If you’re not actually attending the Patriots game, you may decide to take on a different stack – Allgeier and Dortch perhaps.

DK

Goff + St. Brown + Kmet. Allgeier + Dortch. Jefferson + Aaron Jones. A lot of studs made possible by Mason + SF DEF to round it out. You can certainly go more balanced here and not take on the risk of Mason. Easy to drop down to Chark instead. And even from Jones to Dillon.

Yahoo

Fields + Swift + St. Brown. Fournette. Meyers + Waddle. Taysom Hill. Barkley + Giants.