DFS Building Blocks – Week 16

We’re flying through the season and most people are focused solely on DFS now. But not you, you’re Blueprint people, so you’re still firmly in the season-long championship hunt! Good luck! For us Jonathan Taylor owners though, let’s just talk about DFS…

Initial Reactions

I’m glad Malik Davis + Cowboys DEF was a bust against Houston two weeks ago. And I’m glad Pacheco + Chiefs DEF was a bust against Houston last week. Why? Because now I can triple-down and fire up Derrick Henry + Titans DEF at what should be relatively low ownership.

Some weeks when I build my initial lineups I end up making significant changes because of projected ownership. But we should remember that it’s the unique combination of our lineup that matters. Even a player at 50% ownership is okay if you have another player who is at 1% ownership. As popular as the 50% player is, a maximum of 1% of the rosters will have both players, giving you big differentiation.

That said, this week my initial build already has a lot of ownership leverage built in. That’s good. We don’t have to make any tough ownership decisions – we can get leverage on the field with our first reaction build.

Game Overviews

Kansas City Chiefs *	Seattle Seahawks	-10(-110)	-500	29.75	49.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00
Seattle Seahawks	Kansas City Chiefs *	10(-110)	375	19.75	49.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00

I started my builds wanting to get Marquise Goodwin into my lineup. And if I also want to play Derrick Henry, it’s tough to get to Mahomes. So I went to Geno, who is a nice pivot away from Walker who is projected as the second highest owned RB. And, at this point, Kelce is my optimal stacking partner. You could certainly play the Mahomes side of this game, knowing that even as ten-point favorites, they’re likely to be passing but, in theory, Geno is cheaper and is positioned for more passing work. If going the Mahomes side, I’m probably getting more unique by still fading Walker and instead stacking with Goodwin. If building  secondary lineup that goes away from Henry, I’m starting with Mahomes and likely adding both Kelce and JuJu. Then still adding Goodwin, or potentially paying up for Metcalf, but he’s going to be extremely popular this week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Smith + Goodwin + Kelce

Mahomes + Goodwin + Kelce

Mahomes + Goodwin + JuJu + Kelce

Mahomes + Walker + JuJu + Kelce

Smith/Mahomes + Metcalf + Kelce

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Goodwin

Kelce

McKinnon

Metcalf

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Treadwell

Pacheco + Chiefs DEF

Smith + Goodwin + JuJu + Fant

Minnesota Vikings *	New York Giants	-4(-110)	-210	26	48	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00
New York Giants	Minnesota Vikings *	4(-110)	170	22	48	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00

I built one of my early lineups around Daniel Jones. With a similar core built around Smith, I can slide in other cheap-ish QBs. Jones has a nice matchup in a high (for this week) game and has rushing upside. He doesn’t need a stacking partner, but someone like Richie James has shown upside with him. On the other side, you can’t really go wrong with Justin Jefferson or Dalvin Cook or even a full game stack. I’ll be looking at ways to build around thisi game for my secondary lineup. It won’t be sneaking up on anyone though as both Cousins and Jones are popular. Jefferson is, of course. Barkley is more popular than Cook, which make Cook a pretty nice game theory play.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Cook + James

Jones + James + Jefferson

Jones + Cook + Jefferson

Cousins + Cook + Jefferson/Hockenson + James/Slayton

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jefferson

Cook

James

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley + Jefferson

Thielen

Cousins + Barkley + Thielen + Hockenson

Dallas Cowboys *	Philadelphia Eagles	-4(-110)	-225	25.25	46.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 05:25
Philadelphia Eagles	Dallas Cowboys *	4(-110)	180	21.25	46.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 05:25

Minshew Mania should be renamed Minshew Madness – in that it’s madness that he’s projected as the most popular QB and he’s going up against the Cowboys DEF. Enter Miles Sanders pivot.

Sanders was a bust last week and with Minshew so popular, he makes an even greater play this week. With Minshew at QB they’ll want to run the ball and you can still run on Dallas. Sanders could get 25 carries here and he doesn’t have the normal Hurts-vulture risk. Fire him up.

Everytime I see Brown projected for under 10%, he seems to end up crushing. He’s projected to be just barely under 10%. If he was 5%, I might play him just because, but still am prioritizing Sanders. Brown, to me, is a must stack if you’re going to Minshew though.

The Eagles DEF is for real also though, so I’m likely to avoid most other pieces of this game. If you want to bring someone back just to correlate with Sanders, Lamb is really popular so I like going back to Gallup, especially after Brown’s big game.

And if you don’t want to go to Sanders – or even if you do – the Cowboys DEF is in play this week. Pollard or Elliot are fine to pair if going to the Cowboys DEF, but you don’t need to pair them.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Minshew + Brown + Gallup

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Sanders

Brown

Goedert

Gallup

Cowboys DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Dak + Gallup + Brown

Sanders + Eagles DEF

Minshew + Gallup/Pollard + Goedert

Carolina Panthers *	Detroit Lions	2.5(-105)	120	20.5	43.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00
Detroit Lions	Carolina Panthers *	-2.5(-115)	-145	23	43.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00

It feels dirty, but along the same lines as Daniel Jones earlier, I actually built a practice lineup around Sam Darnold. We know the Lions are capable of putting up points and if the Panthers can get anything going at all, Darnold could pay off. He’s also a nice cheap pivot away from Minshew and he comes with some cheaper stacking options like Marshall.

I’ll probably stay away from the Lions this week, outside of St. Brown if I actually play a Darnold lineup somewhere. The Panthers DEF is good and this doesn’t feel like a game that needs to shootout.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Darnold + Marshall + St. Brown

Goff + Foreman + St. Brown/Chark

Goff + Swift + St. Brown + Moore

New England Patriots *	Cincinnati Bengals	3(-105)	140	19.25	41.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00
Cincinnati  Bengals	New England Patriots *	-3(-115)	-165	22.25	41.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00

I’ll be staying away from this game. Tight spread, but likely a low-scoring game. That said, if the Bengals jump out to a lead there’s a case to me made for a game stack with some of the cheap New England pieces. We’ll probably see their ownership climb as people to try to jam in two stud RBs this week. From a game theory perspective then, Chase makes sense, as a lineup-build strategy that most people won’t be targeting.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Stevenson

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Burrow + Stevenson + Chase

Jones + Mixon + Agholor/Myers/Thornton

Patriots DEF

Perine/Mixon + Bengals DEF

Chicago Bears *	Buffalo Bills	8.5(-110)	310	16	40.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00
Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears *	-8.5(-110)	-400	24.5	40.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00

I just can’t quit Devin Singletary. If not this week, then when? I’m not interested in any Bears pieces. I do like Josh Allen in a game where most people won’t play him, but my initial builds have me going to Singletary. With so much of the chalk going to high-end RBs, Singletary is a nice pivot that doesn’t need a monster game to pay off. They *should* run the ball here and they should have success doing it.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Singletary

Allen

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Allen + Diggs

Singletary + Bills DEF

Fields + Diggs

San Francisco 49ers *	Washington Commanders	-6.5(-110)	-300	22	37.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 05:05
Washington Commanders	San Francisco 49ers *	6.5(-110)	240	15.5	37.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 05:05

McCaffrey is really popular this week which seems to be a result of volume and lack of other options. Volume is correct, but the Washington run DEF is pretty solid. I’ll fade him this week and go down to guys like Cook at half the ownership.

Kittle is a nice pivot away from CMC, especially if you build a secondary non-Kelce lineup. You can go after some of the cheaper Washington receivers, especially if you spent at RB and need to correlate with Kittle.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Kittle + Dotson/Samuel

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kittle

Dotson

Samuel

SF DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

WAS DEF

Baltimore Ravens *	Atlanta Falcons	-6.5(-110)	-300	21	35.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00
Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens *	6.5(-110)	240	14.5	35.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00

I also can’t quit (or forget) those Andrews games with Huntley. He’s been a disappointment the last two weeks, and there may not be enough play volume in this game, but Andrews is in the discussion for me again this week. If you want to stack the game up a bit more London is in play. Dobbins is in play. Even Demarcus Robinson is in play.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Andrews + London

Dobbins + London

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Andrews

Dobbins

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Huntley + London + Andrews

Dobbins + Baltimore DEF

Tennessee Titans *	Houston Texans	-3.5(100)	-175	19.5	35.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00
Houston Texans	Tennessee Titans *	3.5(-120)	145	16	35.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00

Whew. What a time to triple-down on Derrick Henry. He could score all 19.5 projected points for the Titans and still not pay off. But he could score all those points and 200 yards and catch some passes… Or the Texans focus (and succeed) at stopping Henry. In that scenario, it’s an ugly, low-scoring game. But if Henry jumps out to some quick scores, the Texans will have to be passing to catch up. Meaning, not that I want to bring back a Texans player, but that there will be even more opportunities for turnovers and short fields for Henry to take advantage of. Henry isn’t a lock in all your lineups, but he’s worth a shot this week. That said, he’s pretty popular himself, so there’s a definite case, given the Vegas total to fade Henry. Value RBs and stud WRs is the unique build this week. Can we get to Jefferson, Chase, Kelce in a single lineup?

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Henry + Titans DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Mills + Henry + Cooks

Cleveland Browns *	New Orleans Saints	-3(100)	-150	17.75	32.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00
New Orleans Saints	Cleveland Browns *	3(-120)	125	14.75	32.5	Sat, Dec 24, 2022 02:00

Weather concerns here and some disappointing offenses. You can take a flier on Kamara or Chubb or even Hunt, but I’ll mostly be staying away from this one.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Browns DEF

Saints DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

The Lineup Build

This weeks seems clear that the chalk build will be RB focused. I’ll be building my initial triple-down on “run against the Texans” lineup and then a secondary lineup that goes heavy on stud WRs/TEs.

FD

I’m starting with my Henry + Titans DEF stack. I already mentioned I’ll build my core around Smith + Goodwin + Kelce. I like pivoting to Sanders at RB. And I like taking (yet another) shot on Singletary. I’m still playing around with different cheap WRs to fill out my lineup.

My secondary lineup is seeing how I can fit Jefferson, Chase, Kittle/Andrews, and maybe even Dalvin Cook into a single lineup. It would be a really unique build, but we’d have to find some duds to fill out our roster.

DK

Taking a similar approach here with Smith + Goodwin, but Kelce is much more expensive on DK so I’ll use this as an opportunity to drop down to Andrews. I’ll keep Sanders and Singletary. So far, I’ll keep Henry and the Titans DEF, then still playing around with my last piece. May also drop off of Henry here and go more balanced.

Yahoo

Letting pricing take me on a bit of a different path here, but not too much. Mahomes + JuJu + Metcalf (could also go to Walker). Foreman + Panthers DEF. Sanders at RB. Kittle + Dotson. And leaves me picking my last RB.