NFL DFS: Monday Night Football Showdown Week 15

Spread: Green Bay -7
O/U: 39

The LA Rams travel to the frozen Tundra of Green Bat to finish out Week 15. This game projects to be very slow-paced with a game total of only 39 points. I am not buying in on the Baker Mayfield is suddenly good narrative, he needs to prove it. With the Packers favored by 7, I am stacking Green Bay.

Captain/MVP Picks

Aaron Jones

I am not usually a fan of using the highest priced player on the board as Captain. On Fanduel it makes sense, but on DK you have to pay 1.5x salary. But with the game script looking like a slow running based game, Jones becomes the best player. Without Aaron Donald in the lineup, L.A. has allowed 195 rushing yards to running backs over the last two weeks. He also has a 22.1% target rate against zone defense, which is more than Allen Lazard, Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs. The Rams use zone defense more than any other team in the league.

FLEX Picks

Kyren Williams

Williams has typically served as the passing-down back. And given that the Rams are underdogs, Williams could lead the team in snaps over Cam Akers. Williams has also been the more impressive runner of the two. He’s earned a higher PFF rushing grade (76.3 to 65.4), averaged more yards after contact per carry (3.0 to 2.6), produced first downs at a higher rate (20.0% to 18.6%), and has been stopped at the line of scrimmage less often (4.0% to 8.0%).

Baker Mayfield

Yes, I said I am not buying in on Baker, but given the game script, LA is going to have to pass, and in fantasy, it’s all about volume. I will not have him as captain in any lineup, but it makes sense as a flex play.

Allen Lazard

Most people will roster Christain Watson who has been hot recently, but Lazard is more consistent and cheaper in salary. He’s averaging double digit fantasy points and the Rams give up the 6th most points to WR.

Value Picks

Kickers

Both kickers are in play as this projects to be a very low scoring game. I lean towards Matt Gay with LA having an implied team total of only 12.5 points.

Green Bay Defense

As I stated above, the Rams have an implied total of only 12.5 points, but will most likely have to pass a lot. This tells me we can expect some sacks and an interception, especially if the bad Baker shows up. And if Green Bay only gives up 12 points or less, it’s a great play.

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