DFS Building Blocks – Week 15

We went studs and duds last week and a dud turned into a stud and some studs turned into duds. That’s the way it goes.

If you weren’t building around Eagles, 49ers, Chiefs, and Broncos last week you probably didn’t win. When a few games explode, you need to be on them. That’s not even accounting for the Evan Engram explosion, which few were likely on, unless you happened to be building a mini-stack around Henry.

One thing to point out about your studs and duds approach is the correlation. We didn’t just throw in random duds – we build around duds that matched our lineup story. Justin Jefferson + Jameson Williams (both did fine, particularly Williams at minimum salary). Our other combination, Cowboys DEF + Malik Davis, did terrible, but not because of Malik Davis. Yes, he got zero points, but that didn’t matter. The Cowboys DEF was a bust, so we weren’t going to win anyway. However, had they performed as expected, then we would’ve had a great chance for 10 to 15 points from Davis. If building around duds – or building around any players – make sure you’re thinking about the correlation and telling a story that makes sense.

Initial Reactions

This week feels a lot like last week, with fewer studs available. I’m glad McKinnon went off for the Chiefs and I’m glad the Cowboys DEF was a bust against the Texans, because now I can load up on Pacheco + Chiefs DEF at much lower ownership than it deserves.

RB looks pretty thin this week, which should drive people to the same plays. Same with WR. TE has a recent bust, Dulcich, playing the Cardinals. Sign me up.

QB has more names, but some tricky things to think about. Does Mahomes get the work or does Pacheco have a game? Does Hurts or Sanders get the TDs? Can the Chargers score enough points for Herbert to pay off? Can Burrow find success against a normally tough TB DEF? Can Fields be vintage (ha) Fields against the Eagles DEF? Then we’ve got Dak, Brady. Can Ridder be the new Fields? Or should we be looking at the Saints DEF?

Game Overviews

Kansas City Chiefs	Houston Texans *	-14(-110)	-1000	31.75	49.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00
Houston Texans *	Kansas City Chiefs	14(-110)	625	17.75	49.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00

We start with highest total of the week, but it’s also the highest spread as KC is implied to score over 30 and Houston, well, is not. The Chiefs will pass and keep passing, but I’m going to stick to the story that Pacheco gets more work than usual and finds the endzone a couple times. And will pair him with the Chiefs DEF. You can certainly go to Mahomes and Kelce, but they should have high ownership. I’m interested in Dulcich against the Cardinals, so if I’m fading Kelce I may as well fade Mahomes as well, doubling down on Pachecho. If you want, this is the type of game where a QB + RB + WR can pay off. I wouldn’t even mind a Mahomes + Pacheco + Chiefs DEF. We know Mahomes spreads the ball around this year and with the Chiefs expected to score 30+ we could see something like two TDs for Pacheco and three TDs for Mahomes, bonus if one of those goes to Pacheco.

Chris Moore was attractive for Houston last week because of his price and potential volume with Cooks and Collins out, but I stayed away because of the Cowboys DEF play. Moore is technically in play this week as well, and so is Dorsett, but I’ll be staying away from them on rosters that have the Chiefs DEF. If I get stuck and need salary relief, I’ll give them a look. I’ll be staying away from the Texans running game without Pierce.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Pacheco + Chiefs DEF

Mahomes + Kelce

Mahomes + Pacheco + Chiefs DEF

Mahomes + Pacheco + JuJu/Kelce

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pacheco

Chiefs DEF

Kelce

JuJu

Mahomes

Moore

Dorsett

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Burkhead

Ogunbawale

Mahomes + McKinnon + Moore/Dorsett + Kelce

Mahomes + Burkhead + JuJu + Kelce

Philadelphia Eagles	Chicago Bears *	-9(-110)	-400	28.75	48.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00
Chicago Bears *	Philadelphia Eagles	9(-110)	310	19.75	48.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00

Another big total and big spread. While we know the Chiefs will want to pass, the plan for the Eagles should be more run-based. The problem is who does the running… Last week, when putting up 48 points, both Hurts and Sanders paid off. That shouldn’t be the case this week, although nothing really says it can’t be the case. For me, this is either Hurts or Sanders. Pick one – or let ownership and the rest of your lineup drive you – and hope variance falls your way.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Sanders + Eagles DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hurts

Sanders

Goedert

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Fields + Sanders

Hurts + Montgomery + Brown (+Smith/Goedert)

Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars *	-4(-110)	-200	25.75	47.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00
Jacksonville Jaguars *	Dallas Cowboys	4(-110)	165	21.75	47.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00

Cowboys at Jags is a little less lopsided than the other games, but I don’t expect the Jags to push the Cowboys as close as the spread says. I do expect the Cowboys to find success this week after a narrow victory against the lowly Texans last week. Dak is in play, but may be popular. QB ownership doesn’t matter nearly as much as some of the other positions though. Lamb is always the most popular WR for the Cowboys, so if going here I’m heading to Dak + Gallup and maybe Schultz. I’m staying away from the RBs. Etienne makes the most sense on the other side because, in theory, he’s involved with building a lead or coming back, but he hasn’t been getting the passing volume. Still, he make sense if stacking this game. The Cowboys pass rush is exactly the type of situation that could lead to more Etienne passing work.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Prescott + Etienne + Gallup

Prescott + Schultz

Prescott + Etienne + Gallup + Schultz

Prescott + Gallup + Schultz + Cowboys DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Gallup

Schultz

Etienne

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lawrence + Etienne + Gallup + Schultz

Elliott + Cowboys DEF

Los Angeles Chargers *	Tennessee Titans	-3(-105)	-150	24.75	46.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 05:25
Tennessee Titans	Los Angeles Chargers *	3(-115)	125	21.75	46.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 05:25

He’s heating up. Is it December-Derrick-Henry time? Maybe. On a slate missing big RB names, Henry might be popular but he’s a solid play this week. The Chargers passing game will also be popular, so if playing any of this game, it’s best as a full game stack. Okwonkwo may be popular again, but I’ll stick to Henry unless you’re going full overstack. Ekeler has a tough matchup, making me inclined to stick to Williams and maybe even Palmer or Everett.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Herbert + Henry + Williams

Herbert + Henry + Williams + Palmer/Everett

Herbert + Henry + Williams + Palmer/Everett + Okwonko

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Henry

Williams

Palmer

Okwonko

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Tannehill + Okwonko + Williams/Palmer/Everett

Cincinnati Bengals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	-3.5(-110)	-190	24.25	45	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 05:25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	Cincinnati Bengals	3.5(-110)	155	20.75	45	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 05:25

Is this game the 49ers last week or a classic Bucs defense field goal battle? The strength of the Bucs defense is still the running game so if the Bengals put up points it’s likely to come via Burrow and Chase. We could go back that stack this week or… skip this game completely. I’m most likely to skip this game completely, unless I end up with extra salary and just put Chase in as a final piece. The Bucs offense has been too bad to use this week, outside of placing a bet that either Fournette or White dominates and puts up a big game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Burrow + White + Chase

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Chase

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Brady + Evans + Godwin

Burrow + Chase + Evans

Brady + Mixon + Evans + Godwin

Las Vegas Raiders *	New England Patriots	-1.5(-110)	-120	23	44.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 05:05
New England Patriots	Las Vegas Raiders *	1.5(-110)	100	21.5	44.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 05:05

Tight spread means potential shootout, but this is also a game where defense could dominate. The Patriots running game is banged up, so we could see Mac Jones get more work and he’s left with cheap pieces to throw to. I’m most likely to use these pieces to fill out my lineup though, not as part of a core stack. On the Raiders side, this week could be an Adams week or it could be a Patriots-focus-on-shutting-down-Adams week. I probably won’t be playing Adams this week outside of lottery-pick lineups that stack up this entire game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Agholor

Bourne

Thornton

Henry

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jones + Agholor/Bourne/Thornton/Henry + Adams

Carr + Adams + Agholor/Bourne/Thornton/Henry + Adams

Moreau

Hollins

New York Jets *	Detroit Lions	-1(-105)	-110	22.25	43.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00
Detroit Lions	New York Jets *	1(-115)	-110	21.25	43.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00

People were all over Mike White, but it’s Zach Wilson time. Back to the same old Jets. Even though the matchup is great, I’ll probably stay away from this game as the Jets defense could keep the entire game from getting out of hand. It looks enticing – and we’ve seen the Lions shootout as recently as last week – but I’ll side with Vegas on this with a 22 to 21 game not a game we need to go out of our way to target. Now, there is a case to treat this game exactly the same way as when Mike White was playing and just sub Wilson in. That’s great for you lottery-pick lineups but I won’t be going there.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Wilson + Swift + Wilson/Moore + Chark

Moore

Swift

Carter + Jets DEF

New Orleans Saints *	Atlanta Falcons	-3.5(-110)	-190	23.5	43.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00
Atlanta Falcons	New Orleans Saints *	3.5(-110)	155	20	43.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00

This matchup is the rare occasion where we can consider Andy Dalton. Kamara is also in play. So is Olave. On the Falcons side, Patterson is in play as he could be a safety valve for Ridder in his first game or they may try to lean on him in the run game. The trouble here is that this game could easily be an environment with low play volume, making it hard for your players to put up winning scores. That said, they also come with low prices so they don’t need monster games. We could also see Ridder do some work with legs and extend some drives or we could see him make rookie mistakes and give the Saints more possessions. Without a lot of other RB names, Kamara is in play and Patterson is in play. I like Olave on the Saints and I like Dalton as a cheap option at QB. You could also take a flier on Ridder if you want to make a bet that he runs all over the place.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Dalton + Patterson + Olave

Ridder + Kamara

Kamara + Saints DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kamara

Patterson

Olave

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Ridder + Kamara + London

Ridder + London + Olave

Carolina Panthers *	Pittsburgh Steelers	-3(-105)	-145	20.25	37.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00
Pittsburgh Steelers	Carolina Panthers *	3(-115)	120	17.25	37.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 02:00

Not much to see here. We’ve targeted Foreman and Pickens more than most this year. And we’ve had success with them, but this feels like a low-scoring fight. Even on a small slate, we’ve got better options to target this week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Foreman + Panthers DEF

Pickett + Foreman + Johnson + Pickens

Denver Broncos *	Arizona Cardinals	-1.5(-110)	-125	19	36.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 05:05
Arizona Cardinals	Denver Broncos *	1.5(-110)	105	17.5	36.5	Sun, Dec 18, 2022 05:05

This game looks ugly, yet, I can’t look away. It’s really hard to fade TEs against the Cardinals, even if they have a backup QB throwing them the ball. Is Rypien going to pull a Purdy and come out slinging? Will he lean into his TE as a safety valve? Hopefully Rypien starting will lower ownership on Dulcich and we can still make a bet – and save salary – on the TE facing the Cardinals. Other than that, I’m likely to be completely off this game. Either defense should be in play too though.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Dulcich

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

McCoy + Brown + Dulcich

Rypien + Brown + Dulcich

The Lineup Build

My builds so far have me going to Herbert or Dalton stacks, depending on salary.

FD

I’m starting with Henry + Williams. I’m starting with Dulcich. I’m starting with Pachecho + Chiefs DEF. That leaves me thinking about remaining salary. I’ll save and go with Dalton + Olave + Patterson. And I can slide Agholor in as my final piece.

Play around with Herbert instead of Dalton. In that scenario, I like going to Henry and Kamara instead of Patterson and Olave. It’s a tight fit for salary though, so you’ll have to make some sacrifices elsewhere.

DK

Easier to find myself going to Herbert here. Herbert + Henry + Williams. Kamara + London. Agholor again. Dulcich again. Pacheco + Chiefs DEF.

It’s not normal to be able to fit a better QB on DK than on FD but that’s the way it worked out this week.

Yahoo

Some bargains lead us to a more unique lineup here.

Dalton + Kamara + Patterson + Olave. Pacheco + Chiefs DEF. Dulchich. Then we’ve got enough salary to fit both Adams and Chase.