DFS Building Blocks – Week 14
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Not a lot of changes. Updated DK lineup at the bottom. Overall this week, I’m taking more risks and fading more chalk than you may be comfortable with, adjust accordingly.
Goff and Cousins are just too cheap on DK to not build around them.
Some other stacks to target – Geno and Brady. I also like building a Huntley + Andrews stack coming back with Pickens or Johnson.
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The fantasy gods giveth. And the fantasy gods taketh away. Down week last week after a lot of the chalk hit. When the chalk hits we, taking a more contrarian approach, don’t end up so well. But it’s the process that matters and we’ll keep build smart, differentiated lineups. If you load up on chalk plays, you’ve still got a big uphill climb to first place because everyone else has the same players. When you make smart pivots to lower-owned players, you leapfrog your way to 1st place because far fewer rosters have your players.
Initial Reactions
This week looks terrible. One clear game to target with Det vs Min. And one other game that looks feasible, but still lower total than we’re used to seeing, Cin vs Cle. I would expect heavy ownership on the first game and, so far, have not seen as much ownership on the second game, at least, not in the way I would expect. More on that in a bit. This could be a week where one game separates itself from all the others and a full game stack wins. It could be a week where all the games perform as expected and a blend of the top couple game environments wins. This is also a week without a lot of clear options, so people will be spending up for studs, making it hard for them to fit all the attractive players and games in. We’re going to have to take some risks this week (which we should be doing anyway).
Game Overviews
| Detroit Lions * | Minnesota Vikings | -1.5(-110) | -125 | 26.5 | 51.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
| Minnesota Vikings | Detroit Lions * | 1.5(-110) | 105 | 25 | 51.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
Highest total. Tight spread. Weird to see Detroit favored, even with homefield advantage. We keep getting Detroit shootouts. I talked last week about these types of games sometime disappointing and then they went out and put up another big game. This has all the makings of a shootout and it should have the ownership percentages to match with. St. Brown, Jefferson, and Thielen all projected in the top six of ownership. St. Brown at over 20% is the clearest fade candidate, but even 20% is not enough to make him an autofade the way he continues to play. I’m likely to fade him again though, FYI. If we go way down the list we Chase at 5%, making it much more likely I start with that stack and just fill my roster in with Det/Min players.
I do like Jefferson in this game as an “everyone keeps talking about Adams and St. Brown” approach. At only 12% ownership, he’s a fine play. I’m just not sure he’ll end up fitting based on salary. Thielen is still “due” for a big game and gives you some salary relief. I like the approach of playing Swift, like we did last week when it felt sneakier, but he’s pretty popular this week. I still may end up there if the salary works out that way, as he’s still a good pivot away from St. Brown. You could start your lineups with Dalvin Cook and get some leverage off the Vikings WRs and Swift, as most people won’t play both Cook and Swift. One of the places we can take a risk this week is with Jameson Williams who is min-priced. He definitely doesn’t have guaranteed playing time, but an explosive player who already has some snaps under his belt, in the highest game total of the week is a good risk to take, especially on a week where we need some unique ways to save salary.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Cousins + Jefferson + St. Brown
Goff + St. Brown + Jefferson/Thielen
Cousins + Swift + Jefferson/Thielen
Swift + Thielen
Cousins + Jefferson/Thielen + St. Brown + Hockenson
Goff + Jameson Williams + Jefferson/Thielen
Swift + Thielen + Jameson Williams
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
St. Brown
Swift
Jefferson
Thielen
Cook
Hockenson
Chark
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Jameson Williams
Reynolds
Osborn
| Cincinnati Bengals * | Cleveland Browns | -5.5(-110) | -225 | 26 | 46.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
| Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals * | 5.5(-110) | 180 | 20.5 | 46.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
This is a nice game if we think the Browns can keep up. We know the Bengals can score points and we know Deshaun Watson will try to score. With the Bengals relatively big favorites and the poor rushing defense of the Browns, it makes sense that Mixon is seeing high ownership. That’s great for us. Easy opportunity to pivot to the Bengals passing attack, getting leverage on 20% of the field and without having to use hail-mary players. If I can get Chase at 5% ownership, instead of Mixon at 20%, I’ll take that any day. It’s going to force us to think harder at RB, but that’s why we’re here. I like coming back with Njoku, but you can go Cooper or Peoples-Jones or even take another flier on Hunt if you want, who didn’t crush us last week, but didn’t outperform either. I really want to play Mark Andrews at TE this week, so I may end up with two main lineups – one with Burrow + Chase + Njoku and another that has Andrews at TE and a different core stack. You can get to Andrews in one lineup if you’re willing to move to Hunt at RB instead of Njoku at TE, which isn’t a terrible play given the limited options at RB this week.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Burrow + Chase + Njoku
Burrow + Hunt + Chase (+ Andrews)
Burrow + Chase + Higgins/Boyd
Watson + Chase + Cooper/Njoku
Watson + Mixon + Cooper/Njoku
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Mixon
Hunt
Njoku
Boyd
Cin DEF
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Brissett
Chubb + Browns DEF
Perine
| New York Giants * | Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5(-115) | 240 | 18.5 | 44.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants * | -7.5(-105) | -300 | 26 | 44.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
AJ Brown dominated last week. We had him rostered in some lineups at low ownership which was nice, but didn’t have the other matching pieces we needed. This week the Eagles are big favorites and could lean on Sanders more, who has some ownership, but isn’t extremely high. He’s not a bad pivot away from the other RB chalk like Mixon and Pollard, but he’s always at risk of being vultured by Hurts. Devontae Smith is projecting to be really popular, so if I’m targeting this game, I’m just going right back to the AJ Brown well at 5% ownership. I’ll avoid all Giants in a tough matchup and with uncertainty around Barkley. Could see an unconventional WR + DEF ministack here. Or Hurts + Brown + Eagles DEF.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Hurts + Brown
Sanders + Eagles DEF
Hurts + Brown + Eagles DEF
Brown + Eagles DEF
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Brown
Sanders
Eagles DEF
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Any Giants player or stack.
Breida (especially if Barkley is playing).
Jones + Slayton + Brown
| Seattle Seahawks * | Carolina Panthers | -3.5(-110) | -190 | 24 | 44.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 05:25 |
| Carolina Panthers | Seattle Seahawks * | 3.5(-110) | 155 | 20.5 | 44.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 05:25 |
This game has a lower total but is still in the top half of this week’s slate. And the spread is relatively close. We’ve seen the Seahawks put up points and we’ve seen the Panthers. That’s it, we’ve just seen them. We talked about a Geno stack last week and it produced and it’s in play again this week, particularly with the uncertainty around their running game. I don’t love playing passing attacks against Carolina, but if you’re picking a game to overstack (and hoping the top two games don’t go crazy) this game might be our last decent option. I also like Foreman as a solid pivot away from the other RBs on the slate. He’s not cheap, but he’s got a more solid role than some other RBs around him who are in more clear timeshares, and we’ve seen him put up some big games. DJ Moore is surprisingly popular this week, expected to be at almost 20% ownership. I’ll happily take the double leverage and play Foreman instead. If I lose because Sam Darnold to DJ Moore erupts, so be it.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Smith + Metcalf
Smith + Lockett
Smith + Metcalf + Lockett
Smith + Foreman + Metcalf/Lockett (+ Fant)
Darnold + Metcalf/Lockett + Moore
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Metcalf
Lockett
Foreman
Homer
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Homer (if Walker sits, bump this up to building blocks)
Smith + Homer + Metcalf/Lockett
| Dallas Cowboys * | Houston Texans | -17.5(-110) | -2000 | 30.75 | 44 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
| Houston Texans | Dallas Cowboys * | 17.5(-110) | 1000 | 13.25 | 44 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
17.5 point spread. Wow. Two of the greatest QBs in history – Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield – just put up big comeback wins and still only scored 17 points in the game. I kid, of course, but this is a big spread and it’s gives us a tough decision to make. We know you can run on the Cowboys. And, if you’ve been here for a while, you know that we know that the Cowboys want to run the ball. This sets up perfectly for them, but the problem is both Zeke and Pollard are priced like RB1s. Pollard, at a $500 discount to Zeke, is projected to be the highest owned RB on the slate. But what will the Cowboys do when it’s a blowout. Pollard is now an integral part of the weekly gameplan, and they don’t want to risk losing him, so I don’t think this play is “Pollard gets an entire half of garbage time”. Now, Pollard, even in close games with Zeke playing, has paid off this salary. But, if we have to take some risks this week, I’m going to place my bet on Zeke getting two or three easy TDs en route to the Cowboys getting that big lead.
Now, the other part of this discussion is the garbage time… if we don’t think Pollard gets it, then we have to consider Malik Davis at near zero ownership at only $4,800. On a slate that doesn’t have a lot of value RBs, and has Pollard projected for 20% ownership, Davis could be a great leverage play. I’ve played around with rosters that have Mike Boone and that feels just as risky (and maybe even lower upside) than taking a gamble on Davis and the Cowboys dominating. If you go this route, it’s ONLY when pairing with the Cowboys DEF. I haven’t tried this yet, but it may be feasible to get Chase, Jefferson, and Andrews into your roster with this approach. I may have just talked myself into my secondary lineup.
Last point here, with Pollard’s high ownership, you could instead just build around the Cowboys passing game, but Lamb is relatively popular as well.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Elliott + Cowboys DEF
Davis + Cowboys DEF
Pollard + Cowboys DEF
Elliott/Pollard + Davis + Cowboys DEF
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Elliott
Davis
*Because of Pollard’s ownership levels, I only want to play him when paired with Cowboys DEF.
Dorsett
Moore
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Garbage time works both ways and Cooks and Collins are both out.
Dorsett
Moore
Mills + Elliott/Pollard + Dorsett/Moore
| Denver Broncos * | Kansas City Chiefs | 9.5(-110) | 350 | 17.25 | 44 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 05:05 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos * | -9.5(-110) | -450 | 26.75 | 44 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 05:05 |
This is ugly and yet popular. Dulcich is projected to be the top TE. Pacheco has decent ownership. Hinton and Jeudy have decent ownership (Jeudy the better play of the two). All that popularity and Russ is less than 1%. Someone has to throw the ball to them! I won’t be playing this game, but it’s worth a lottery-pick lineup or even your third lineup if you’re building a few. But you’re not really getting the ownership leverage we want (outside of Russ) so if going here, start with Russ (gasp) and build around him. Here are some WRs projected to be lower owned than both Hinton and Jeudy… Chase, Brown, Metcalf, Evans, Kirk, Johnson, Gallup… all (well, most) are better players and in better situations.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Pacheco + Chiefs DEF
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Pacheco
Jeudy
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Wilson + Pacheco + Dulcich
Wilson + Pacheco + Jeudy + Dulcich
Wilson + Jeudy + Kelce
Mahomes + Jeudy + Kelce
| Buffalo Bills * | New York Jets | -10(-110) | -500 | 26.5 | 43 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
| New York Jets | Buffalo Bills * | 10(-110) | 375 | 16.5 | 43 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
I don’t plan to have much exposure to this game. Both defenses are good and it’s likely we see a lower scoring game here. I won’t be playing any Jets. The only pieces that are interesting to me are the Bills RBs. Cook is getting popular but this is a matchup where we should see more targets to the RBs, which is where we were seeing Singletary shine earlier in the year. I’d rather take a shot on Singletary at 1% than Cook at 10%, but we may not need to take a shot on either player, depending on the rest of our lineup. Could also pair with the Bills DEF, but I’m almost certainly going to be 100% Cowboys DEF.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Singletary
Cook
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
White + Singletary + Wilson
White + Cook + Wilson (DK)
Allen + Carter + Diggs/Davis
Allen + Singletary
| Tennessee Titans * | Jacksonville Jaguars | -3.5(-110) | -200 | 22.25 | 41 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans * | 3.5(-110) | 165 | 18.75 | 41 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
I keep waiting for December-Derrick Henry and looks like I might still be waiting after this week. I’ll be off this game completely, although Hooper getting targets. And Ihkine will get more work this week with Burks out.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Kirk
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Tannehill + Ihkine + Kirk + Hooper
Lawrence + Henry + Kirk
| San Francisco 49ers * | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.5(-105) | -185 | 20.25 | 37 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 05:25 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | San Francisco 49ers * | 3.5(-115) | 150 | 16.75 | 37 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 05:25 |
I wish we could still play kickers on FanDuel as this feels like a defensive, field goal game. Of course, when we say that, that’s when the game explodes and goes for 60 points! Hello lottery-pick lineups. I’ll be staying
Let’s the play lottery-pick game for a minute. Brady + Evans + Godwin + Kittle. Take away the matchup and their actual performance this year and that looks like a lineup that can explode. The Bucs won’t want to run against SF and Brady will need to get the ball out quick, making Godwin a better play than Evans, but in the lottery-pick scenario of this game blowing up, might as well double stack with Brady. We were on Kittle last week and it was CMC that hit. CMC is pretty popular on FD so I’d rather move to Kittle in this scenario. You could also take a flier on either White or Fournette getting some TDs, but there are better plays this week.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Godwin
Kittle
CMC
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Brady + Evans + Godwin + Kittle
Brady + CMC + Godwin/Evans
Samuel
Brady + Godwin/Evans + Samuel
Purdy + Godwin/Evans + Kittle
| Pittsburgh Steelers * | Baltimore Ravens | -2(-110) | -125 | 19.25 | 36.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers * | 2(-110) | 105 | 17.25 | 36.5 | Sun, Dec 11, 2022 02:00 |
The lowest game total of the week, yet I’ve found my way to wanting to force Andrews in and then coming back with Pickens. In a slate full of bad games, we can find plays like this from some of the “worst” games. When Andrews went on his big run it was Huntley at QB. People forget that. I’ve even built some lineups with Huntley at QB because of the salary savings.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Huntley + Andrews
Andrews + Pickens
Huntley + Pickens + Andrews
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Andrews
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Pickett + Pickens + Johnson + Andrews
The Lineup Build
I’ve played around with a few different scenarios but I’m landing on a studs and duds approach, finding some ownership leverage where I can. This feels like an “if you’re not first, you’re last” week. Expecting some movement tonight so check back in tomorrow morning for an update.
FD
I’m starting with Burrow + Chase and coming back with my first “dud” Hunt. I’m going to ride another week with Singletary. I’m going to add Andrews at TE at a great ownership discount. Now some more duds… I’m adding my Malik Davis + Cowboys DEF stack (yolo!). And if I want more studs, I need another dud. So I’ll add Jefferson + Jameson Williams giving me the ultimate “stud plus dud” ministack in the top game environment of the week. A lot of things need to go right in this lineup, but the lineup story makes sense.
You can obviously go more balanced if you’d like, not needing to force Chase, Jefferson, and Andrews into one lineup.
Burrow + Chase + Peoples-Jones. Singletary and Homer. Elliott + Cowboys DEF. Andrews. Still filling it out with taking a flier on Jameson Williams.
Play around and find what you like this week.
DK
Still not settled on DK, but here’s where I’m at so far. Goff and Cousins both seem too cheap for their matchup. I want to force Jefferson in (even though it’s much easier to leave him out and go more balanced). Thielen seems too cheap for his TD upside. So I’ll start by stacking up Cousins + Jefferson + Thielen + St. Brown. I’ll add Kittle at TE at a big salary discount compared to his upside. (If going more balanced and dropping Jefferson, add Godwin opposite Kittle.) I’ll add Davis + Cowboys DEF again. I’ll add James Cook here at a bigger price savings compared to Singletary on DK than on FD. And I’ll add Homer (who could end up chalk if Walker gets ruled out).
UPDATE: Cousins + Jefferson + Chark + Swift. Foreman. Kittle + Godwin. Davis + Cowboys DEF.
Going more balanced and fading Jefferson is a bit sharper as it’s hard for both Jefferson and Thielen to hit at Jefferson’s high price.
Yahoo
Goff + Swift + St. Brown + Thielen. Andrews + Pickens. Elliott + Cowboys DEF. Sanders to fill out RB.