Playoff DFS – 1/22 and 1/23

Last week was another week of balanced lineups with some key pivots. We had a few lineups in the running for top prize, but Williams instead of McKinnon hurt that. Let’s find those pivots this week and, most of all, during these playoff slates, just have fun.

SATURDAY:

We’ll start again with what we expect out of each game.

CIN @ TEN: Derrick Henry is back. We can expect TEN to run the ball to set up the pass. And we can expect CIN to lean on the pass. Mixon will be more popular than Henry, making Henry an interesting pivot, while acknowledging the risk that he doesn’t get a full workload in his first game back. Part of his low ownership is that Tannehill is the most popular QB on the Saturday slate. So a build around Henry or a Tannehill + Henry + Brown/Jones could be unique. Or, if you really want to get unique – and I always do – a Tannehill + Foreman + Brown/Jones lineup. That also saves you a lot of salary.

SF @ GB: A battle should be expected, but we could easily see either side jump out to a big lead and a dominating performance. That means we have a lot of different lineup stories we can tell. SF controls the game like they did against Dallas. The 49ers struggle in the cold and the Packers dominate. Jones is expected to be more popular than Mitchell – that’s a mistake. I’ll be taking advantage of that and locking in Mitchell today. I do also have some interest in Jones for his potential passing work, but he’s a clear second to Mitchell. My RB selections are likely to be Mitchell / Jones / Foreman / Henry today, depending on the rest of my lineup. Adams will be popular as always, but he’s sort of all they have today. He can beat anyone and any coverage, but it’s pretty easy to make a fade case taking Lazard or Cobb instead or just taking Jones as the only Packers piece of this game.

The Lineup Build:

For the Saturday slate, I want to build around the secondary options. I’ll be playing a Tannehill + Julio Jones core (perhaps with Henry or Foreman). I want to lock in Mitchell and Samuel, probably coming back with Jones, but if not Jones, Cobb or Lazard. If I don’t go with Henry or Foreman, I’ll go with a Tannehill + Brown + Jones stack, coming back with Higgins (popular because of price). TE and DEF is a crapshoot, just pick the best options that fit your lineup story.

SUNDAY:

LAR @ TB: Shootout time. But what if it doesn’t? I’ve said a lot this year that when we get these clear shootout spots sometimes both teams try to slow things down and we get a defensive battle. I think it’s most likely we get the shootout we’re expecting this week, but you can build a lineup that tells a different story. Let’s stick to the shootout first though. Somehow, Stafford is the least popular QB of all four games this weekend. Yes, Mahomes and Allen will be the most popular, but Stafford against a team that will put up points and force opponents to pass, is going way overlooked. I’ll be locking him in. And I’ll be locking in Gronk. You could very easy play the proven Brady + Evans + Gronk lineup also though.

BUF @ KC: Shootout time. Same thing as above though, what if it doesn’t? Just pick a side and tell the story. I’ll be locking in Diggs. And locking in Singletary on DK, not on FD. I don’t have any locks on the KC side, but I do like the double-TE lineup this week with Gronk and Kelce, especially on DK. I also always like Knox if you want to go that route. I would expect the Chiefs to lean into Hill and Kelce now that we’ve reached the playoffs, but I also like Pringle as a piece to fill out our lineups. I’ll mostly be staying away from the running game, but you can tell the story that Edwards-Helaire gets into to the endzone, taking points away from all the KC passing-game stacks.

The Lineup Build:

I’m adding Stafford and Kupp. I’m locking in Gronk and Diggs. Then I’m mixing in other pieces, like Pringle and Beasley. I’m going to take a shot on Akers and Fournette (assuming he plays) hoping to get unique when others are scared off of the matchups. When a game shoots out, especially on short slates, it’s entirely feasible to play a QB + RB + WR stack. You can do these with KC and BUF too. You can pick any defense, but I’m leaning to the Rams because we’ve reached the point in the season that the Bucs are the most banged up team and the most vulnerable to a disappointing game. Buffalo would be my second pick, taking a chance the early-season Chiefs show up and disappoint. That also provides the most leverage on the field.

I’m ending up with a lot of Diggs + Beasley lineups. In those I’m dropping Stafford and Kupp and moving to Allen and Hill to better correlate my lineup.

Good luck!