DFS Building Blocks – Week 3
Sunday morning update:
It’s appearing that Dalvin Cook won’t play. People are going to jump to Mattison, he could approach 40% ownership. He’s obviously a great value and he’s excelled when given the chance, but don’t force it. Remember, we already have Barkley who is only slightly more expensive and we have Ty’Son Williams who is a bit more as well.
Ty’Son is a bit scarier though and his workload isn’t as certain as Mattison, so I may actually bump down to Mattison, which would allow me to move up to Josh Allen at QB, keeping my Barkley/Pitts stack though. This is making my lineup chalkier though, so I may not want to give up my 1% owned Matt Ryan. I do already have Justin Jefferson, whose ownership should go down quite a bit with the Mattison news. So we’ll see. Bottom line, don’t panic and force Mattison in, but play him where it makes sense in the lineup story you’re telling.
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Well, that was interesting.
Here’s what we told you about Week 2:
“What this week also means though… lots of high scores. It’s harder to win on these slates because so many players are expected to do well, but it also means we can find some opportunities at lower ownership, giving us a chance to leapfrog the field. In a week like this, you’re likely to going to look at the million $ winning lineup and say “I could’ve made that!” There will be so many players getting high scores this week, that’s it’s going to take more luck than usual to win the big one and we’ll probably see fewer correlated stacks, unless one game total ends up much higher than the others.”
Yep, that happened. Except…
Instead of one game total ending up higher than the others, we saw three of the four afternoon games go way over. The fourth game – the game we focused our stack on – didn’t.
The best game environment of the day (DAL/LAC) ended up with only 37 total points, effectively only giving us one half of football to get our points. That’s not enough.
The other three games had totals of 63, 67, and 73. Ouch. And we saw a couple must-have players – Derrick Henry and Cooper Kupp (the early games). Kyler Murray did great but wasn’t a must-have because a few of the other QBs also scored high.
If you’ve been around here for a while, you know we normally fade the chalk pretty heavily. Only in the best situations, where we think the popular plays are appropriately popular, do we follow the crowd. This week was one of those. Highest over/under, tightest game spread and other high-total games on the slate to take ownership away from our targeted game. So, we ate the chalk, and it didn’t taste good. This week is a good lesson in why we usually fade the chalk. When you have similar game environments at lower ownership it’s almost always smart to pivot to those. Same things with players – when you have two players who have similar upside, it’s almost always smart to select the lower-owned player.
Here’s the FD million $ winning lineup:
Lot of high scores. And a lineup that “I could’ve built”. That’s the nature of these slates with so many high-potential games, particularly when three of them hit. And, as predicted, we see a couple mini-stacks, but no real game stacks. Murray + Moore (who was a target in our stacks) and Henry + Lockett. We really wanted to play Henry as a bounce-back candidate, but the situation wasn’t optimal with more downside than upside. Obviously though, for the same reasons we targeted Henry in Week 1, his upside, when it hits, is huge. This may give us an opportunity to target Tannehill + Brown at reduced ownership this week, unless Kupp’s performance against the Colts bumps Brown and Jones up this week. It may not be as sneaky as we want it to be so we’ll see how it plays out as we get into our research.
On to Week 3!
Three clear approaches to our builds this week: 1) Stud WRs, fit in what else we can. 2) Stud QB naked. 2) Stud QB as part of a game stack.
QB
Lamar Jackson. Stud QB. Great game environment. Just maybe though, they lean on their RBs more than usual this week.
Pat Mahomes. Always in play, but as we saw with the Cowboys and Chargers, sometimes these games tend to underwhelm.
Kyler Murray. Stud QB who can be played naked (without pairing with a pass-catcher). If you think Jacksonville can keep up some, can go here. Or if you think the Cardinals get a big lead because of Murray and then keep their foot on the gas, can go here. I’m probably going to other spots in my primary lineup.
Josh Allen. Feels like an Arby’s night. This could be the spot Allen and Diggs go off after a slow start. Very tempting to go here and I’ll have some exposure but probably not in my main.
Matt Stafford. This one is interesting. One of the top passing teams in the league now and only the 5th highest ownership. I’ll have some exposure in game-stack lineups.
Russell Wilson. Not as popular as I thought he would be, so makes a nice target. I’ll have some game stacks here.
Justin Herbert. See Mahomes above. Passing this week, no pun intended.
Tom Brady. What does Tom have to do? Missing Antonio Brown probably and playing a tough defense, but he’s also playing a team that also wants to throw it all over the place. There is some 4-TD game streak (record help by Peyton Manning) and I think Tom will want to get it. Hard to believe we’re even talking about Brady being this low owned. I’ll have some pieces in my main lineup and will definitely have a Brady stack high on my list.
Daniel Jones. We’ll talk RB in a minute, but Saquon is cheap and popular and will draw ownership away from Jones who has a surprising amount of upside with his legs. I like Barkley on FD and Jones on DK.
Kirk Cousins. In play. Easy to see this game turning into a shootout and surprised it’s not a more popular play.
Ben Roethlisberger. Pass. Najee Harris is still priced up and is still popular. I may go there this week, but we’ll see. But Big Ben is in prove-it mode for me before I roster him in my main lineup.
Ryan Tannehill. I really like this. Henry is going to be popular, but the Colts strength is their run D. I really like a Tannehill + Jones stack. The caution here is that the Colts with Eason aren’t likely to put up much of a fight, so it may be a more balanced, low upside attack from the Titans.
Teddy Bridgewater. Doing great as a real QB, but not on my list as a fantasy QB.
Matt Ryan. Wow. Week one we were talking about Pitts at the level of Kelce. Now two weeks in, not only has Pitts not performed, but his QB is way down the ownership list. If I build toward a stud-WR lineup, Ryan may make it into my main lineup. Makes a great stack with Pitts and Barkley. Or Pitts and Shepherd.
Justin Fields. Not next in ownership, but last one of any interest. DK only. Potential with his legs and his price put him in play. But he’s still a rookie QB playing a tough defense. We saw what happened in Week 1 when rookies were overhyped. Still, he’s too cheap on DK.
RB
Saquon Barkley. Too cheap for his upside in a sneaky game. I’d rather play Shepherd from the Giants side of this game, or even Slayton, but I’ll probably land on Barkley on FD as I’m trying to target stud WRs. Bonus to rostering Barkley is if Cook is out and Mattison is in, it’s an easy swap salary-wise from Barkley to Mattison.
Derrick Henry. Tough to miss on his week 2 breakout after he failed us in week 1, but I won’t be chasing points here. Rather get leverage through the Titans passing game.
Dalvin Cook. Good spot if healthy, but I’m probably staying away outside of game stacks.
Austin Ekeler. One of the okay pieces of last week’s game, but I’m generally shying away from this game.
Najee Harris. Popular on both FD and DK. You’re paying for opportunity, not performance. He’s one of the true workhorse RBs, but on a team that is having some trouble offensively. I like Pittsburgh D this week and will likely get some leverage on Najee ownership by playing Najee + PIT on FD. I like Najee okay as a stand-alone option on DK.
Joe Mixon. Can always erupt but I’m staying away given the defense. Would rather target Boyd if going here.
Alvin Kamara. Priced for his reputation and in a tough matchup. Jameis Winston and the Saints are who we thought they were! We were just a week early…
Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Super cheap on DK and we just saw what Elliott and Pollard did to the Chargers. Hard to pass up on DK on the team with highest projected total of the week. And same over/under as last week’s DAL/LAC game but a higher spread in favor of KC. On most teams, that means more RB touches, but we know KC will be content to get there through the air.
Mike Davis. Price is right, but I’d rather go to Pitts or Ridley in this game.
Chris Carson. Being overlooked for Metcalf and Lockett, but I like other RB options better still. Although Carson is a great leverage play against Metcalf/Lockett lineups. Feels expensive for his name, so likely also a reason he’s being overlooked. Too cheap on DK.
Jonathan Taylor. I’m not likely to target this Colts team while Wentz is banged up. Not that he was doing great with two good ankles.
Antonio Gibson. They’ll try to run him, but defense is too good for me to target Gibson here.
James Robinson. Wow, what a drop. Priced way down with the Jags not doing great and Hyde seeing some work. This is also a scary matchup, but this one just feels (scary, when your reasoning for a play is just the feels) like a spot where he can get enough volume to pay off. Definitely worth a look in a game stack.
Some low-owned guys to take a look at:
Nick Chubb. Super low for his talent. Worth a look if you want to pay up at RB as a way to differentiate your lineup. I really like this if returning to the Chubb + CLE ministack we used last week. Again, be careful about the rookie hype – Chubb + CLE defense could be a tourney winner. And if you don’t like Chubb, why not Hunt at even lower ownership?
Ty’Son Williams. It’s scary, I know. But you’re getting (probably) the top RB on a team with a big total and a big spread at tiny ownership. It’s a high price given the Lamar’s rushing and the other RB options, but he’s a got great shot at hitting value even with those risks.
Kenyan Drake. Little ownership after Barber was involved (as expected) last week. I’m probably not going here, but the upside is there if you want to. This is another good swap-portunity with Mattison.
Chase Edmonds. Arizona DEF should be a strong option this week, so a correlated play with Chase Edmonds makes sense. With Murray putting up numbers every week, Edmonds is going underowned, particularly for the strength of this game environment.
Cordarrelle Patterson. Have to mention him with the involvement he’s getting in the offense. He’s likely more popular on DK, but makes a nice leverage play on FD if you’re not going to some other ATL/NYG stack.
WR
Cooper Kupp. It used to be like clockwork that you could play a player who was a bust last week and fade a player who went off. The public would overreact to the previous week, and we could take advantage. The public is getting sharper though, so we need to adjust from a game theory perspective. We need to target the best plays, with less concern for ownership, as long as they are truly the best plays… Enter Cooper Kupp. We weren’t chasing points with Kupp last week, choosing to ignore his connection with Stafford. Now, we also had a lot of smart pivots last week, so it was easier to fade Kupp. This week, we have a lot of smart pivots again, including a player on his own team. Robert Woods. At the highest WR ownership level on the slate, and with a player that is at least equally likely to perform well, we’ll be pivoting to Woods this week. Kupp has a slightly worse matchup and it’s still early in the season, so Kupp may not be Stafford’s locked-on WR over the course of the entire season. This week could see the start of Stafford mixing it up more.
Chris Godwin. Great matchup if you think Ramsey is on Evans. Bad matchup if you think Ramsey is on Godwin. I think Ramsey will focus on Evans enough to give Godwin a lot of volume.
DK Metcalf. I just told you the public is getting sharper, then we see Metcalf expected for higher ownership than Lockett. Why? Seemingly just because. “Lockett has been going off and Metcalf is due.” That used to work. But we have to look deeper. On any given week Metcalf or Lockett are capable of blowing up, but this week Metcalf should see a lot of Patrick Peterson, meaning Russ should focus on Lockett again. We know from last season that Wilson will relentless attack the better matchup; this wee that matchup belongs to Lockett. So while the public is getting smarter and is not “chasing points” with Lockett, we’re looking deeper. Lockett is the right matchup play and the right game theory play.
Tyreek Hill. Mostly staying away from this game. Not the greatest Hill matchup.
Robert Woods. See above. He’s on our short list.
AJ Brown. I want to be early to Brown’s big game, but he seems banged up still and this may not be a high-scoring game.
Keenan Allen. Always in play, particularly on DK, but I’ll be going elsewhere this week.
Justin Jefferson. If playing Lockett, we should build a mini-stack with a Vikings player. Since we’re fading Cook, Jefferson makes a lot of sense. But this is another situation where Thielen is equally viable at lower ownership.
Stefon Diggs. Talked about with Allen. This could be a big week.
De’Andre Hopkins. I’d rather target Kirk who has been forgotten. The Cardinals should control this game and there may not be enough volume for Hopkins. Kirk can pay off his value in a few plays though.
Some other WRs to discuss.
Tyler Lockett. Play him.
Tyler Boyd. I like his path to volume this week. Good DK option.
Calvin Ridley. In play, but Pitts has the better matchup.
Marquise Brown. Good FD option, but if going to this game, I’m more likely to take shot on Williams.
Kenny Golladay. Squeaky wheel? I won’t be prioritizing him in my main lineup as I’m likely going to Barkley, but he makes sense in a Daniel Jones stack.
Julio Jones. I like a Tannehill + Jones stack as a way to get leverage on the Henry ownership.
Sterling Shepherd. Way too low owned for his role. Barkley ownership is hurting Shepherd. A Barkley + Shepherd stack opposite Ryan + Pitts is a nice way to get exposure to a lot of potential points at a cheap price. And is a way to make a unique lineup. Remember, we don’t need to be different by selecting a bunch of hail-mary players, we can be different through our lineup construction. Overstacking a good situation is a great way to do it, particularly in a nontraditional RB + WR stack when salary allows it.
Juju Smith-Schuster. If not this week, then when?
Darnell Mooney. I won’t be going here, but if you’re playing Fields, Mooney is a great pairing. Especially if you’re playing Fields on FD.
Cole Beasley. Under owned for his role and volume in a get-right spot for Buffalo offense.
Van Jefferson on FD.
Scotty Miller on DK.
Darius Slayton on FD.
Christian Kirk on FD.
KJ Osborn. Super cheap on DK.
TE
Travis Kelce. Always the top option, especially in a week where Hill as a relatively tough matchup. If going here, some cheap, low-owned WR options at the end of the list.
T.J. Hockenson. Plays more like a WR in a game they should be behind in.
Mark Andrews. I need to see it first. He could get a two-TD game any week though.
Darren Waller. Can get 20 targets any week, but you’re paying for them.
Tyler Higbee. In play, especially as leverage off of Kupp, but I’ll go Woods and another TE.
Rob Gronkowski. Here’s what we said last week. “What does he have to do? How much more Gronk can Gronk get than last week? See above about the Bucs WRs. On any given week you’re guessing which pass catcher hits, but if Gronk hits again then this ownership level would look like straight disrespect.” Classic Gronk two weeks in a row and now Antonio Brown is out and there is uncertainty on Godwin vs Evans as the best play. This could easily be another two-TD week for Gronk and you’re only paying slightly more than Hockenson and Pitts. Sounds crazy. This is another classic game theory spot where the public may be overvaluing regression. Regression is a concept to consider over the long term, but three games isn’t the long term. Gronk is just as likely this week to get two TDs and he was the previous two weeks, but the public is fading him just because “he can’t do it again”. Plenty of good TE options, so see what fits with salary and the lineup story you’re telling. But don’t be afraid to go back to Gronk.
Kyle Pitts. I really want to go back to Pitts, because I’m trying to fit some other high-priced options in and he fits nicely with a cheaper Ryan stack, but it’s tough to pay for potential when so many other proven options are listed above. The matchup is great though. This may be a week where I build my secondary lineups as ways to get exposure to a bunch of different TEs.
Noah Fant. Fine option, but too many other better ones.
Jared Cook. Same as Fant.
Evan Engram. Danger, way to easy to get one quarter of Engram and then an injury. Just say no.
DEF
Denver Broncos. Great option. Paying up for DEF is sometimes a way to differentiate, but this week it’s the most popular play, so I’ll be going elsewhere.
Buffalo Bills. Heinicke better than expected. I won’t be chasing Buffalo points, even though they’re cheap.
Cleveland Browns. I like this, but won’t be my main.
Arizona Cardinals. This seems like a great spot with so much attention on Denver.
Baltimore Ravens. Fine, but Detroit has proven to be scrappy, so I’ll stay away.
New York Giants. This seems like an overreaction to Atlanta’s first two games. I’ll stay away. In fact, I’m probably targeting an ATL stack in my primary.
New England Patriots. Sure, now everyone wants to target Jameis. Maybe they read our week one article?
Atlanta Falcons. Same as NYG, this is not giving the Giants enough credit. Both teams can’t finish this week 0-3.
Pittsburgh Steelers. Here we go. This is where I’m going. Pitt pressure attacks Cincy weakness well. This is a good example of paying up to be different.
New Orleans Saints. Yes, it’s Mac Jones, but he’s no Zach Wilson.
Miami Dolphins. This doesn’t make sense. People grasping at straws to find a cheap defense.
Las Vegas Raiders. This makes much more sense if looking for a cheap option.
The Lineup Build.
I’m still tinkering with a lot things. Main two decision points, build around Pitts or Gronk.
I’m likely to lean to Pitts because there are simply fewer options in ATL. That would have me starting my lineup with Ryan + Barkley + Pitts. I was originally targeting Najee + Pitt for the correlation, but Najee is priced up already, so I’m heading down to Ty’Son Williams. It’s scary, as we talked about above, but plenty of room for him to hit value at low ownership as others are scared by Lamar and the other RB options in Baltimore. I want to lock in Lockett and Woods. With Woods, I’ll play the odds that Ramsey focuses on Evans so will pair Woods + Godwin. Last decision spot is forcing a mini-stack by adding Jefferson with Lockett or going to someone like Diggs.
I’m very likely to build a second lineup that starts with Allen + Diggs and uses Gronk instead of Pitts. That allows me to get away from the uncertainty of Godwin since I’ll have Woods + Gronk. Barkley still makes sense here because is price is so low, but this may be a spot to toss in Najee Harris and keep the Pitt D correlation. Will also be tinkering with starting this lineup with Stafford or Brady.
Stacks to consider:
Ryan + Barkley + Pitts
Brady + Godwin/Gronk + Woods
Allen + Diggs
Stafford + Woods + Kupp (you can’t have two of his WRs in the top-ten and Stafford as only the fifth-highest owned QB)
Chubb + CLE (DK as leverage on all the Fields ownership)
Cousins / Jefferson / Lockett
Wilson / Lockett / Jefferson
Carson + Lockett
Tannehill + Jones
Ryan + Pitts + Shepherd
Jones + Golladay + Pitts
Barkley + Shepherd