Thanksgiving is always one of the most unique and fun slates of the entire season. It’s one of the best chances all year to take down a large-field tournament, and because DraftKings drops the MillyMaker entry fee to five dollars, this is legitimately the best opportunity any of us will have all season (and probably for our entire lives) to turn five bucks into a million dollars.

Before we dive in, let’s quickly look back at Week 12.

Week 12 Recap

Once again, we had some solid plays on FanDuel. My core was Jameer Gibbs, Emanuel Wilson, Wan’Dale Robinson, Rashee Rice, and Hunter Henry. Those guys did their job. The rest of the lineup is what held things back. I played Jared Goff at quarterback instead of Jameis Winston, and I chose the Raiders defense instead of Cleveland or New Orleans. I played Alec Pierce on the other side of Rashee Rice and went Jamison Williams instead of Amon Ra St Brown.

If I flip that lineup around and pay down to Jameis Winston, then pay up to Amon Ra St Brown instead of Jamison Williams, that’s a near–tourney winner. It was right there.

On DraftKings, I started with the Cowboys stack I talked about: Dak, CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley, and Devonta Smith. Dak ended up getting there in points, but he didn’t spread it around the way we needed, and Barkley and Smith didn’t do much. We had a secondary Lions lineup and even had one lineup with the Wan’Dale comeback, but we didn’t lean into a full game stack strongly enough. Hopefully you got there.

Thanksgiving Week Strategy Overview

Whether you play one lineup, six lineups, or 150 lineups, you need a plan for these three–game slates. They play very differently than a Sunday main slate.

For me, I’m making at least eight lineups and putting them into the five dollar MillyMaker. Between our skill level, our ability to target leverage plays, and our understanding of correlation and game theory, this is the best week of the year to take a swing. Yes, we need variance to break our way, but we’ve put ourselves in position all season.

My Eight-Lineup Plan

1. One pure chalk lineup.
No ownership considerations. Just the players most likely to score the most points.

2. One mostly chalk lineup with a couple key pivots.
For example, if Ja’Marr Chase is extremely chalky, I might fade him. I might go Isaiah Likely instead of Mark Andrews. I might go Travis Kelce instead of Rashee Rice.

3–8. One lineup built around each game and each quarterback.
I overstack each one, telling the story that this is the game that blows up. I build it from both sides. That gives me six game–stack lineups.

You can use this ratio for 8 lineups or 150 lineups.

Building My First Lineup

If I’m building my very first lineup based purely on where I think the raw points come from, I start with Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews. Those are the two names that immediately jump off the slate for ceiling.

I’m not immediately going back to Ja’Marr Chase. He is likely to be the highest-owned player on the slate. He can absolutely get there again if the game shoots out or they keep feeding him, but that’s not where my mind goes first. If I’m not playing Chase, I’m likely going to Henry – Andrews – Ravens defense and building the rest around the other games.

From there, the tweaks start:

• Maybe I go Likely instead of Andrews.
• Maybe I go David Montgomery after Gibbs’ monster game.
• I expect Gibbs to be the second-highest-owned player on the slate behind Chase.
• If you fade Gibbs or Chase, that’s reasonable. If you fade both, very few lineups will do that.

That’s something I want to think through as I start to build my other lineups and game stacks.

My Game Projections

Here’s how I personally see these games playing out:

• Ravens handle the Bengals fairly easily.
• Packers vs Lions is close but not a shootout, Lions edge them out.
• Chiefs vs Cowboys turns into a shootout. Both teams are in near must-win situations. Both should come out aggressive. This does not look like a typical low-scoring game.

So in my most likely lineup, I’m probably looking to build around Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes.

Refresher on Leverage vs Pivots

Before getting into ownership, it’s worth reviewing what leverage actually means.

If Ja’Marr Chase is the highest-owned wide receiver, a pivot would be playing someone like CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens at lower ownership. Their success is independent of Chase.

A leverage play is different. A leverage play says:
“When Chase fails, who succeeds directly because of it?”

For Chase to fail:

• The touchdowns could go through the tight end.
• The Bengals could score on the ground and Chase Brown gets the touchdowns.
• They could spread the ball around and someone like Mike Gesicki benefits.

In those cases, Chase failing directly correlates with another player succeeding.

If you fade the chalk and hit the player who benefits from the chalk failing, you gain massive leverage.

There is also the scenario where all the Bengals fail. If you pivot to Gesicki or Chase Brown and the Bengals get shut out, the actual leverage play becomes the Ravens defense, paired with Henry or Andrews. Leverage doesn’t have to come from the same team. Sometimes it’s the opposing defense that benefits the most.

Another great leverage pivot off Chase is Mike Gesicki. With Tee Higgins out and Gesicki back, he should get more work. Any touchdown that goes to him instead of Chase becomes huge leverage.

Ownership Breakdown

Quarterback

Mahomes leads the slate at over 30 percent projected ownership. Lamar is second. Then you drop to the 10 percent range with Dak, Jordan Love, and Joe Burrow, all basically equal. Jared Goff is just slightly below them.

If you’re building only one lineup, I’d lean Dak. You get immediate leverage off the highest-owned quarterback, and you’re still playing for a shootout.

Running Back

At the top, the expected names:

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Derrick Henry

Then comes Javonte Williams, priced well at 6,300, and Chase Brown at 6,500 around 30 percent owned. This is mostly a construction thing. People don’t want to pay for both Henry and Gibbs if they’re paying for Mahomes and high-priced receivers, so they land on Javonte.

I don’t love it. I’d rather go a little cheaper at wide receiver and build Dak – Lamb – Rice or go toward Kelce.

One play that stands out is Emanuel Wilson. Jacobs is back and around 25 percent owned, but Wilson could see more work, and if Jacobs leaves early again, Wilson becomes a slate-winner. At around 3 percent ownership on a three-game slate, you could do much worse. He won’t be in my primary lineup, but he’s worth some shots.

Keaton Mitchell is around 10 percent. If we’re leaning into Henry – Andrews – Ravens defense, I like Henry and Keaton Mitchell together to tell that story. That wouldn’t usually work on a full slate, but it becomes feasible on a three-game slate.

Wide Receiver

At the top:

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Amon Ra St Brown
• Rashee Rice
• CeeDee Lamb
• Christian Watson

Then you hit the next tier:

• Xavier Worthy
• Zay Flowers
• Romeo Doubs
• Jameson Williams
• George Pickens

Pickens is interesting around tenth-highest ownership. The percentages aren’t extreme, but I like him as a leverage option off the big names.

Ownership then drops off a cliff:

• Rashod Bateman
• Andrei Iosivas (around 5 percent)
• Matt Golden (2 percent)
• DeAndre Hopkins (1 percent)
• Hollywood Brown (1 percent)
• Tyquan Thornton (under 1 percent)

Iosivas is another strong leverage play with Higgins out.

Tight End

This is where ownership condenses even more:

• Andrews
• Kelsey
• Likely

It’s rare to see two tight ends from the same team projected at 30 percent and 20 percent, but the salaries are forcing that.

Gesicki around 20 percent fits the same pattern.

Then you drop to Jake Ferguson at 10 percent. He’s a very strong leverage option. You can build Dak – Pickens – Ferguson – Rashee Rice and tell a very clear story.

After that you have the Packers tight ends who are great leverage lottery picks.

Defense

Ownership focuses on:

• Ravens
• Packers
• Chiefs
• Cowboys
• Bengals
• Lions

The important thing is always the same: tell the story of your lineup.

If you stack the Ravens game, maybe your defense is Dallas or Kansas City.
If you fade the Bengals, lean into the Ravens defense and build it as a blowout with Henry and Andrews or Henry and Mitchell.

Final Thoughts

This slate has more real paths than a normal Thanksgiving. All three games have real shootout potential, and that opens the door for a ton of viable lineup constructions. Build intentionally. Use correlation. Use leverage. And build your lineups to tell a logical story that fits the scoring outcomes you’re projecting.

This is one of the best weeks of the entire season to be aggressive. Good luck, enjoy the games, and let’s try to take down the Thanksgiving Milly.