Week 12 Fantasy Football Recap
Welcome to Week 13 and happy Thanksgiving! However, before we turn our attention to turkey dinners and Thursday football, it’s time for a quick look back at Week 12. Here are my top 10 fantasy football takeaways from the week’s action.
Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 12
Alvin Kamara Goes Down
The veteran running back suffered a knee injury early in the Saints’ loss to the Falcons and did not return. Reportedly, the issue is an MCL sprain, which is not a season-ending issue but will cause him to miss some time.
After Kamara’s departure, the Saints’ backfield was split between two very different players: 22-year-old rookie RB Devin Neal and 35-year-old gadget player Taysom Hill. Neal saw 58 snaps and handled seven targets and seven carries. Taysom played 26 total offensive snaps: 15 in the backfield (including some as the fullback to Neal’s halfback), five as a wildcat QB, and three each out wide and in the slot. He recorded 10 carries and two passing attempts.
It’s unclear how this unique backfield split will shape up going forward. On the one hand, Taysom did have more carries than Neal this week. But it’s difficult to picture Kellen Moore and the Saints genuinely entering a 2025 NFL game with the goal of having the 35-year-old “tight end” be their lead ballcarrier.
For now, however, both players are must-adds. Any NFL RB1 should be rostered, and it’s clear that Neal is the Saints’ top option (if not only option, as no other RB played a snap on Sunday) as a traditional back if Kamara misses time. But the fantasy standards are low enough at TE that Taysom could be a must-start if he is indeed going to see double-digit touches of any form.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s Return
One of the biggest questions of the week was how the Patriots would divide their backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson returning from his toe injury. In Stevenson’s absence, second-round rookie TreVeyon Henderson had broken out with back-to-back massive fantasy games. But would Mike Vrabel and Co. put the rookie back in the stable and lean on the veteran?
The answer to that question was a resounding no. Henderson got the start, and he finished with 22 opportunities to just eight for Stevenson. He also more than doubled Stevenson’s snap total for a 64% snap share.
Given that we’ve received no information indicating that Stevenson was being eased in, the safest assumption is that this will be the backfield split going forward. I’m still a little skeptical of Henderson, who was very inefficient prior to Rhamondre’s injury (and lowkey only got there on a couple of big plays and a bunch of TDs with Rhamondre out). But he is at absolute worst going to fill Stevenson’s old shoes as a borderline RB2, with upside for far more if he can keep finding explosive plays.
Kayshon Boutte’s Return
Stevenson wasn’t the only key piece of the Patriots’ offense to return from injury on Sunday. Kayshon Boutte also returned after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury, and he immediately resumed his role as the team’s WR1 (in terms of routes, at least). His 77% route participation rate led the team, although he saw just two targets — he looks like the same boom/bust flex option he was prior to his injury.
What’s more interesting is how Boutte’s return impacted the rest of the Patriots’ WR room. Specifically, Stefon Diggs plummeted to just a 51% route participation rate. Diggs has been less than a full-time player for the entire season, but this was by far his lowest mark in months.
Early in the season, Diggs made a habit of scoring fantasy points despite his low route shares, but that wasn’t the case this week. He saw just three targets (a 9% share), catching two for 20 scoreless yards. Unless his usage rebounds going forward, Diggs looks more like another risky flex option than a weekly fantasy starter.
The Bears’ Usage Gets Ugly
Speaking of ugly route rates, we have … the Bears’ entire offense. Everyone is excited about the rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III, but they both posted just 53% route participation rates on Sunday. This is nothing new, as Burden has only made it above 40% for the first time in the last couple of weeks, and Loveland has hovered around 50% whenever Cole Kmet is healthy.
However, what is new is that Rome Oduzne and DJ Moore also posted participation rates of just 68%. Prior to this week, they had average participation rates of 83% (Odunze) and 79% (DJM). All four players mentioned were heavily utilized on their routes, with target totals of nine (Odunze), seven (Moore), and five (Loveland and Burden).
But it’s very hard to provide reliable production when you’re not consistently on the field. This situation is worth monitoring to see who (if anyone) is able to separate as an every-down player. Otherwise, we could be in for a frustrating end to the season from every player in this Chicago passing offense.
Two Former Second-Rounders Get Second Chances in NY
The Jets’ receiver room is wide open with Garrett Wilson on IR. And right now, John Metchie III and Adonai Mitchell seem to be stepping up to fill that gap.
Metchie III, in particular, has already been productive. The 2022 Texans second-round pick scored 12 half-PPR points in Week 11, then followed up with 15.5 points this week (six catches for 65 yards and a TD on seven targets). Metchie also led the Jets with an 88% route participation rate on Sunday. He is already a potential deep-league flex option at this point.
Meanwhile, Adonai Mitchell, a 2024 second-round pick who landed in New York as a result of the Sauce Gardner trade, is also seeing promising usage. He saw seven targets of his own on Sunday on a 77% route participation rate. Thanks to a massive ADOT, he finished with a 69% air yards share and 17.3 expected fantasy points (although he only finished with 5.2 actual points).
Mitchell has always flashed elite traits when he sees the field, and this is an opportunity for him to do just that. The question will be whether he can overcome the drops and other questionable blunders that have haunted him thus far in his career. If he can, his ceiling is probably higher than Metchie’s as an explosive deep threat in a Jets offense desperate for playmakers.
J.J. McCarthy is That Bad
So far this season, 39 quarterbacks have attempted at least 100 passes. Among those 39, J.J. McCarthy ranks (per Fantasy Points Data):
- 38th in turnover-worthy throw rate
- 39th in off-target throw rate
- 39th in catchable throw percentage
- 39th in highly accurate throw percentage
The second-year passer also ranks dead last by a massive margin among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play. He’s only 22, so I’m not going to declare that his career is over. But it’s not too early to declare that he is killing the fantasy value of the Vikings’ weapons this season. In his six starts, none of Justin Jefferson (9.5), Jordan Addison (5.4), or T.J. Hockenson (5.4) has managed to average even 10 half-PPR points per game.
Going forward, McCarthy is currently dealing with a concussion, so perhaps UDFA Max Brosmer can provide an improvement … he probably can’t be worse, at any rate. But until someone wearing purple shows they can be a competent NFL QB, all players on this offense deserve massive fantasy downgrades.
The Packers’ New WR1 (For Now)
Don’t look now, but Christian Watson has led the Packers in route participation rate for two straight weeks. His 88% share in Week 12 is the highest number he has posted since Week 12 … of 2023. Watson has also seen excellent usage in other ways over the last two weeks, with a 25% target share and a 36% air yards share. He only scored 7.4 points this week, but he was the WR5 in Week 11 with 18.6 points.
Unfortunately, because things can never be simple in the Packers’ WR room, this might not last. Both first-round rookie Matthew Golden and talented slot receiver Jayden Reed should return from injuries soon, potentially even in time for the Packers’ Thanksgiving Day matchup with the Lions.
However, Reed has traditionally only played in three-WR sets, and Golden seemed to be falling out of favor even before his injury. At the very least, it’s worth adding Watson now to see if he can maintain his spot atop this complicated pecking order.
Coachspeak Comes Through For Kenneth Walker
The Seahawks’ backfield has frustrated fantasy managers all season, with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet remaining in a very even 50/50 split. However, Seattle Head Coach Mike Macdonald said after Week 11 that Walker was “showing that he deserved more opportunities.”
In a shocking move for an NFL coach, Macdonald actually put his money where his mouth is on Sunday. Walker saw 64% of the team’s RB carries (11 to Charbonnet’s six) and posted a 64% snap share — those were both season highs. So were his four targets, and his 48% route participation rate was his second-highest of the season. As long as this continues, Walker will be a must-start fantasy back, while Charbonnet is closer to a pure handcuff than anything else.
The Tuten Train Slows Down
If you consumed any fantasy content over the last seven days, you probably saw the name Bhayshul Tuten. The hyperathletic rookie looked to be well on his way to a breakout in Week 11, as he was out-touching and out-producing (and out-playing) Travis Etienne through three quarters prior to suffering an ankle injury.
That injury ended up being minor, and Tuten did not have an injury designation for Week 12, so many were hoping that he would pick up where he left off. Instead, he fell back to a clear backup role, albeit a slightly increased one. Tuten played just 21% of the Jaguars’ snaps and saw only seven carries and zero targets, while Etienne racked up 19.1 fantasy points on a 64% snap share and 19 touches.
Tuten is still a high-upside stash and valuable but handcuff, but we’re getting close to the end of the season. Ankle injury or no, it’s not a good sign that he couldn’t capitalize on the momentum he built up with an impressive showing last week. It’s far more likely than not that Etienne — who has played well this season — simply remains the Jaguars’ lead back for the rest of the season.
The Steelers’ New Split
Speaking of interesting backfield situations involving a minor ankle injury, we have the Steelers. Kenneth Gainwell took advantage of Jaylen Warren’s early exit last week to have a huge game, and his expanded role continued into Week 12.
Warren was still Pittsburgh’s lead rusher, racking up 18 carries. But Gainwell recorded 10 totes of his own for a 36% RB rush share that was one of his highest of the season. The former Eagle was also the Steelers’ clear passing-down back, racking up six targets on a 53% route participation rate (Warren saw zero targets ona 24% route share).
Going forward, both of these backs can have value, especially if there are this many touches to go around. But it’s hard for one offense to support two viable fantasy RBs, and Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t exactly elite. Both are flex/RB3 options with this usage split, nothing more.
