NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 12
Week 11 had some really nice calls, but it turned out to be one of my worst weeks overall, even though we started strong with Jacoby Brissett, who completed an NFL record 47 passes, and we got Greg Dortch in there at value, and even saw the backup tight end Higgins get a little work. Ultimately, we needed the full Cardinals stack with Brissett, Michael Wilson, Dortch, and Trey McBride. And even though we had a great call with the Steelers defense, fading the very popular Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown, and putting up a top defensive performance of the week, we did not have the running back pieces we needed, and it was an overall lower scoring week across the board.
It was one of those weeks where you had to have that one game over stack, and then have some exposure to the second game with Bijan Robinson and Tetairoa McMillan. We did not have any exposure to that game.
We did fade the very popular running back chalk of Chase Brown and Jalen Warren, opting for value. Unfortunately, we did not play Sean Tucker as that value option, thinking Rachaad White would be more involved as the Bucs were passing to catch up. It ended up being more back and forth, and Sean Tucker had a huge game, with Josh Allen also having a big game on the other side.
We keep knocking on the door. Let’s get after it again and turn in a solid Week 12. Hopefully you found the right combination of secondary players to go with the Cardinals stack and Steelers defense.
Format Change Moving Forward
We are changing up the format of the Building Blocks a little bit. Ted is focusing more on the seasonal rankings in his game previews and where he differs from consensus rankings. I am going to focus more on the ownership portion of building our lineups. The name of the game is Getting Leverage on the Field, and the best way to do that is by finding spots where the field is not going.
We do not need every spot filled with an under owned player, but by making smart pivots and making leverage picks against chalk, we put ourselves in position to win first place. Our goal here is not just to hit the cash line. Our goal is first place. So we have to get a little uncomfortable with some of our picks.
Game Environments I Like for Week 12
As I look at Week 12, I like a few different spots:
- The Cowboys side of the Cowboys–Eagles game
- The Chiefs–Colts game to potentially be high scoring
- The Detroit Lions
None of these are sneaky. Everyone will target them in some way. So now we look at ownership and let that help drive where we should go with our lineups.
DraftKings Ownership Breakdown
Quarterback
Starting with DraftKings quarterback ownership:
- Jared Goff is coming in as the highest owned
- Drake Maye right behind him
- Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Jacoby Brissett follow
Not surprising, but what we do not see until we scroll way down is Dak Prescott. If I can get Dak down around the 15th highest ownership, I will take that all day. There is probably a perception that the Philadelphia defense is better than how they have been performing, and the Cowboys need to win this game. I expect a vintage Dak performance at home.
I would not be afraid to fully stack this game with:
- Dak + CeeDee Lamb
- Bring back Saquon Barkley or DeVonta Smith
- You can also add Jake Ferguson
This should not be a Pickens game. We have seen him have some big ones recently, but this should be more toward the Lamb side.
As for Brissett, he is popular again. He is fine, but I probably will not go there. If I go down to value, I will probably go all the way down to Tyrod Taylor. It does not feel great, but at his price and with the pairing of Adonai Mitchell, you can come back with Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, or Mark Andrews. Any of those three are viable and give you a nice game stack at a bargain price that lets you fit studs from the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Lions games.
If you cannot stomach Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston is coming in under 5 percent owned and you could do worse than a Winston plus WanDale Robinson lineup for garbage time against Detroit.
Running Back
At running back, I am a little surprised to see Chase Brown at the top around 25 percent. It is not a great matchup against New England, and when Cincinnati gets into scoring games, they do it through the pass. Brown does catch passes, but I will gladly fade him at this ownership.
Emmanuel Wilson is also coming in as chalk. He is fine, but the Packers are not running well this season, so I will probably skip this play at high ownership.
Then we get Jahmyr Gibbs, the chalk I expected. He is pricey, but this is a great matchup for him, and his style fits the Giants defense. The only knock is that all of the Lions players could have success without one of them putting up a true tournament winning score. So if you play this game, I am fine with:
- Only Gibbs
- Only Amon Ra St. Brown
- Only Jameson Williams
- Or starting with Goff and playing all of them together
If Goff is the most popular QB, pairing him with Gibbs is something the field will not do much, which gives you leverage. You also do not need a Giants bring back. This could be a blowout.
Next we have Bijan Robinson, Ashton Jeanty, and Derrick Henry. I do not love any of them. I don’t mind Henry as much. We know what he can do, and it is a good matchup. But I have other running backs I prefer.
I want nothing to do with Jeanty against the Browns. His price is reasonable, but no thank you. I would rather pay up a little more for Saquon Barkley at lower ownership. Jeanty is $6,300 and Barkley is $7,500, so we are basically asking if Barkley can score five more points than Jeanty. I definitely think he can, especially coming back on the other side of a Cowboys stack.
Further down:
- Kenneth Walker looks good
- I kind of like Quinshon Judkins. He is coming in low owned around $6k and he makes a lot of sense paired with the Cleveland defense. There will be a lot of people on the Raiders defense vs Shedeur Sanders, but the Browns defense is elite, and I would run Judkins as much as possible if I were their coach.
- TreVeyon Henderson under 5 percent owned, priced at $6,700. He is still worth it in tournaments because of his upside, and the Bengals give up a lot of high upside RB plays
- Jonathan Taylor is way down at under 5 percent owned at $10,000. That is shocking given he can put up a three touchdown game
- David Montgomery is lower owned than I expected and is a pivot from Gibbs
- Bhayshul Tuten is also interesting at his price. Etienne is higher owned, but Tuten is getting work and has the red zone role
Wide Receiver
Not surprising to see Amon Ra St. Brown at the top near 30 percent. If you are going to play him, I prefer pairing him with Goff and even Gibbs to lower the effective ownership. Full game stacks have been winning tournaments over and over.
Next is Michael Wilson. He makes sense on paper, but I probably will not go back after his big week. But he is cheap, so I do not fault anyone who does.
Then we have WanDale Robinson. It does not make sense to me for WanDale to be the top Giants bring back at over 20 percent while Jameis is so low. That means people are forcing Giants’ bring backs. You can get unique by skipping that entirely.
Then we have Rashee Rice and Tee Higgins. Both make sense. Higgins should get a lot of work without Chase, but the matchup is tough and I will likely pass. I do like Rice. He is around 15 percent and still very playable. I probably will not get to Mahomes lineups, but a Rice and Jonathan Taylor or Rice and Alec Pierce mini stack works.
Then we have:
- JSN
- Stefon Diggs
- AJ Brown
- DeVonta Smith
AJ Brown and Smith are equally owned. I much prefer Smith this week. Brown got the squeaky wheel game last week. This matchup favors Smith, and you get leverage by going there.
Next group (around 10 percent):
- Jameson Williams
- Zay Flowers
- George Pickens
- CeeDee Lamb
Lamb is lower owned than Pickens. This should be a Lamb game, so this is easy leverage. If I were building purely based on ownership, I would start with Dak, Lamb, Saquon, and Smith.
Then we get Alec Pierce, who is fine as a bring back to Rice.
Adonai Mitchell comes in low owned at $3,200. Jets pass catchers are a mess, but Mitchell is worth the value play with Tyrod and lets you fit studs from the good games.
Justin Jefferson is at 3 percent. I am not going there much, but he is still Justin Jefferson. If the field is on Emmanuel Wilson, I wouldn’t mind either adding Jefferson on the bring back or playing a back and forth passing game story and picking a different Packer and Jefferson.
Greg Dortch is also in a similar spot to last week. Makes sense. Probably will not go there myself.
Tight End
At tight end, no surprise seeing Trey McBride on top. I am a little surprised to see Mark Andrews at number two, but he is priced way down and I think the play makes a lot of sense. I will probably eat the Andrews chalk.
Kelce, Hunter Henry, and Kyle Pitts (with no Drake London) are all there. Pitts could make sense, but I am more likely to avoid him and play the Saints defense instead.
Brock Bowers, Dallas Goedert, and others in this range are all fine. None are so highly owned that they hurt you.
Choose based on correlation and price.
Defense
Not a lot of surprises. Browns, Saints, Raiders, Seahawks lead the way. I will probably go to the Saints, but here is what else stands out:
- From the bottom up, the Saints, then Browns are the first cheap defenses I like
- Chicago at Pittsburgh could be interesting depending on Aaron Rodgers health
- Raiders are fine playing against Shedeur
- Detroit makes a lot of sense, especially with the field forcing Wan’Dale
FanDuel Ownership Breakdown
Quarterback (FanDuel)
Mahomes is the top owned QB on FanDuel compared to Goff dropping a bit. Given the similar prices, I would probably go to Goff instead of Mahomes.
Hurts is lower. Dak is very low owned, just like DraftKings.
Dak is $7,900. Tyrod is $6,900. Both around 1 percent owned. We are basically asking if Dak can score three more points than Tyrod. Yes, he can.
Dak is also $7,900 compared to Shedeur Sanders at $6,500. That is asking for Dak to score four or five more points. Again, yes.
I am surprised at Dak being so low owned on both sites.
Running Back (FanDuel)
Pretty similar to DraftKings. One big thing: Saquon Barkley is even further down the list, around RB15 to RB20 in ownership. He is expensive, but as a bring back to a low owned Dak, I will gladly go to Barkley on FanDuel.
Wide Receiver (FanDuel)
Wide receiver is similar to DraftKings. Rashee Rice is higher here because Mahomes is popular.
We see DeVonta Smith higher owned than AJ Brown.
We see CeeDee Lamb way down the list again, still lower than Pickens.
A Dak plus Lamb lineup makes a lot of sense on FanDuel, both for the upside and ownership.
Tight End (FanDuel)
Tight end has a little surprise: Kyle Pitts near the top because he is $4,900.
McBride is $8,500. Kelce $6,000. Hunter Henry $5,300. Andrews $5,700.
I will probably go to Andrews at the ownership discount.
If you want to lean into Cowboys–Eagles, Jake Ferguson and Dallas Goedert are both also low owned.
If you are going to Saints defense, Brock Bowers is very expensive but around 2 percent. It is a decent matchup for tight ends and is leverage if you are fading Browns defense. I probably will not, but it makes sense.
Defense (FanDuel)
Not a lot of surprises, but Lions are higher on FanDuel. You are not squeezed for defensive pricing, so people pay up more here.
Final Thoughts and Core Lineup Direction
As I look at all of the ownership, I am definitely going to lean into a Dak plus Lamb plus Barkley, and maybe adding DeVonta Smith as my core lineup.
I am going to look at cheap options like a Mark Andrews and Adonai Mitchell pairing. I am going to look at the Saints defense. I could look at Bhayshul Tuten.
You can go cheap with Adonai Mitchell and pay up at running back, or go balanced and forget the mini stack. If you are not starting with Tyrod, there is no reason to force Mitchell just for the bring back.
You can go to someone like TreVeyon Henderson and a mid-range wide receiver instead.
I will be playing around with Goff builds, full Lions stacks, and the cheap Tyrod plus Mitchell plus Andrews starting points to see how many studs I can get in.
This is a week to get uncomfortable, pick a game, and go after it. Do not be afraid to take a full game stack approach. You can do that with Cowboys–Eagles, with Chiefs–Colts, or just the Lions side even adding the Lions defense.
We are going for first place. Remember, if you aren’t first, you’re last.
Good luck.
