NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 6 – Fantasy Football Blueprint

Week 5 was one of those wild, high-scoring DFS weeks where even really sharp builds couldn’t quite get to the top. We put up 204 points on DraftKings, which in most weeks would be good enough for a deep run.

This was my second entry but it perfectly showed the power of correlation. The mini-stack of Emeka Egbuka and Jaxon Smith-Njigba hit in a game environment that completely erupted, and that was the real difference-maker.

The rest of the lineup was full of solid, correlated pieces:

Justin Fields with Garrett Wilson and Jake Ferguson as the main game stack
De’Von Achane and David Montgomery providing strong, efficient RB production
Michael Carter as a value filler
and the Saints defense as a simple salary-saving option that kept the floor steady

In my primary lineup, I leaned heavier into the Breece Hall–Garrett Wilson stack. That was my top priority combo for the week, and while the Fields build ended up being secondary on paper, it actually outperformed thanks to how cleanly the correlations hit across both games.

It’s a great reminder of why we focus so much on game environments and correlation.

We noted going into Week 5 that with so many value options on the board, you could essentially build any lineup you wanted. And that dynamic played out exactly as expected.

When everyone has access to cheap volume – and when those value plays actually hit – it raises the overall scoring floor across contests. Combine that with a few high-scoring game environments, and you get a slate where you needed a truly monster score to climb the leaderboards.

That’s why even sharp, well-correlated lineups in the 200-point range couldn’t quite get there. The process was right – we hit on the leverage spots, the game stacks, and the mini correlations – but when value is that abundant and production that widespread, it turns into an efficiency contest more than a differentiation one.

Noticing a Trend

Looking back at last week’s Tampa Bay–Seattle game, I mentioned beforehand that both teams were facing tough run defenses, and that would likely push them to lean more heavily on the pass. Sure enough, that’s exactly how it played out – and once again, those are the types of games that have quietly turned into DFS goldmines all season.

I’ll need to dig back through a few other examples, but just off the top of my head, every time we’ve seen a game where both rushing matchups are difficult, the result has been a positive passing environment – faster pace, more dropbacks, more scoring chances.

It’s something we’ll want to keep a close eye on moving forward. When two capable offenses are forced away from their run games, it often creates exactly the kind of volume-driven game script we want to target in DFS – and it tends to go under-owned because people see the tough defensive matchups and shy away.

Format-Specific Strategy Note

One thing I’ve been thinking about – and I don’t have hard data on this, but it fits what we keep seeing – is how the scoring differences between DraftKings and FanDuel should influence how aggressive we get with full game stacks.

On FanDuel, where touchdowns are weighted more heavily, it’s tougher for a full stack to pay off unless one offense completely blows up and the touchdowns are concentrated. You’re often better off building around one or two correlated pieces rather than the entire game.

On DraftKings, though, the full-PPR scoring make it more feasible to build complete game stacks. Even if a team scores four touchdowns and only one of your receivers finds the end zone, the others can still hit value through volume and yardage.

That scoring dynamic gives you a wider path to upside on DK – it rewards sustained production and offensive involvement, not just touchdowns. It’s one of the reasons I’m more willing to go all-in on multi-player game environments there, while playing things a bit tighter on FanDuel.

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Cowboys 26.25, Panthers 23.25

This is one of the first games I targeted in early builds – and I expect it to be popular. That makes it a perfect spot to get leverage through over-stacking or by attacking it from a different angle than the field.

After Rico Dowdle’s big performance last week and all the revenge-game talk against his former team, he’s likely to draw plenty of ownership. He’s in a legitimately good spot, so if you want to play him, that’s totally fine. But my plan is to get different by fading Dowdle and instead attacking the Bryce Young → Tetairoa McMillan side of the game.

You can also get creative with construction:

Play Dowdle and Young together, adding a pass-catcher to leverage both sides of the scoring
Or run my preferred version – Young → McMillan with a Jake Ferguson bring-back
If you want to overstack, you can also pair Ferguson with Javonte Williams, who fits well as a complementary piece in builds emphasizing this game environment

If you’re starting from the Cowboys’ side, that’s completely viable too. It’s still a Ferguson week, but it’s also a solid Pickens week. A Cowboys-heavy stack with Dak Prescott, George Pickens, and Ferguson, then bringing it back with McMillan or Dowdle, will give you strong leverage and enough unique ownership even in what’s likely to be one of the more popular games on the slate.

Game Outlook:
I expect the Cowboys to win comfortably. They should score enough to force Carolina into pass-heavy mode, which opens the door for Young and McMillan to rack up volume and garbage-time production. The scoreboard may not stay close, but the DFS volume should.

Pick’em: Dallas Cowboys

Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Cardinals 20, Colts 27

I’m expecting the Colts to win this game and most likely control it throughout, but there’s a key layer here that I think the public will overlook – it’s actually easier to pass on the Cardinals than it is to run. That matters a lot in a week where we have three expensive headliners in Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, and Jonathan Taylor.

Because of that matchup and expected game flow, Taylor might not see as much volume as people are projecting. He’s still capable of hitting, but this is a great spot to get different by fading him in favor of other premium options.

Kyler Murray’s status adds another wrinkle. His presence doesn’t change my outlook a ton – I generally avoid playing the Cardinals – but if he sits, that could push the Colts even more toward a Taylor + Colts Defense stack. That’s a viable route if you’re playing for a game script where Indianapolis gets ahead early and controls the tempo.

Personally, though, I’m more likely to target this game through the passing attack, starting with Tyler Warren. If the Colts do move the ball through the air, it should flow through him.

Overall, I expect this game to be lower scoring than most think, with the Colts dictating pace. But it does fit the mold of the “both teams prefer to pass” setup we’ve been tracking – the same kind of matchup that’s quietly produced DFS-friendly outcomes all season.

If Murray plays and the Cardinals can push back with a few quick scores to Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr., that opens a path for this to become a sneaky shootout. It’s not the most likely scenario, but it’s a legitimate secondary build option.

In early lineup builds where pricing naturally led me to Harrison Jr. as a one-off, I already had Ferguson at tight end – but I may start turning that into a mini-stack of Warren and Harrison Jr. for some correlated upside at moderate ownership. I’ll bump Pickens up my list if I go away from Ferguson at TE.

Pick’em: Indianapolis Colts

Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Chargers 23.75, Dolphins 19.75

The Dolphins are a mess right now. They’re another team I’ve been skeptical of since early in the season, and nothing they’ve shown lately changes that outlook. We’ve taken our shots with them – Tyreek Hill early on (didn’t hit), and De’Von Achane last week. Achane looked great out of the gate with a quick touchdown, but slowed down after that and didn’t really pay off as an expensive chalk running back.

This week doesn’t look any easier. The Chargers defense should be able to contain them, and I’m not expecting Miami to move the ball efficiently. The one piece of this offense I could see being DFS-usable is Darren Waller, who’s still involved enough to make sense if you’re not using Ferguson or Warren. I’d prefer those two, but if you’re pivoting off them in a large field, Waller is fine – not someone to force in.

On the Chargers’ side, we’re seeing a similar setup to last week’s Michael Carter / Demarcado situation: two replacement backs stepping in for an injured starter. The public will likely chase Hassan Haskins or Kamani Vidal, but I’m staying away. Their starting prices are higher than Carter and DiMarcato’s were, and the Chargers have another pass-catching back in Hines who could siphon off touches.

My expectation is that Los Angeles largely avoids the run, relying on short passing – a dink-and-dunk approach that moves the chains without needing explosive plays. That style sets up well for Keenan Allen, and to a lesser degree Ladd McConkey. I probably won’t play either on FanDuel, but they’re much more interesting on DraftKings, where volume and yardage are rewarded. Allen makes a solid one-off differentiator on DK builds this week.

Overall, I expect the Chargers to control this game throughout – efficient, not flashy. I’ll fade the likely chalk value RBs, and look to Allen as the only piece I’d prioritize.

Pick’em: Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Browns 16.25, Steelers 22.25

This game should be bad – like truly bad. It’s probably more likely to end 0–0 than turn into a shootout. Both teams want to play slow. Both are built around defense first, and both want to minimize mistakes and lean on their run games.

Technically, you could make the case that it’s easier to pass on each of these defenses than it is to run – that’s true. But I don’t think we see that kind of game here. Everything about this matchup points toward a grind-it-out, low-scoring script with limited fantasy appeal.

The only real reason to consider this game is pricing.

Quinshon Judkins remains very cheap for his workload
Jerry Jeudy is also underpriced relative to his target share
Dylan Gabriel, making just his second start, comes in cheap enough that you could justify him if you’re trying to jam in multiple high-end studs elsewhere

You could build a lineup around that angle – betting on cheap volume and hoping the Browns score just enough to keep you afloat while your expensive pieces carry the load. But personally, I’m staying away. Everything about this setup screams slow, ugly football.

Pick’em: Pittsburgh Steelers

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Patriots 24.75, Saints 21.25

Both teams have solid defenses, and this matchup profiles as a lower-scoring game. We’re not getting another Seahawks–Buccaneers shootout here. I expect the Patriots to control the pace, stay ahead most of the way, and grind out a road win inside the dome. It won’t be a blowout – more of a back-and-forth game where New England dictates tempo.

Stefon Diggs is coming off a couple of nice games, and his price remains reasonable, so you can go there if you want. I just don’t think the volume will be high enough for him to fully pay off. If you do play Diggs, you need to tell the right game story – one where the Saints are pushing enough to force New England to throw. That likely means Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed has success on the other side, or maybe even a wild-card Taysom Hill appearance after his expanded usage last week.

I’m not excited about any Saints pieces individually, but if you believe in the shootout narrative for Diggs, you should correlate it.

On the ground, the Patriots backfield remains a committee. With Antonio Gibson out, many will be tempted to chase TreVeyon Henderson as a potential breakout, but Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t going anywhere. I’d approach that situation with caution – there’s no clear bell cow here yet.

From a roster-construction standpoint, I actually like the Patriots defense as a value play even on the road. They’re disciplined, opportunistic, and capable of generating turnovers against a mistake-prone Saints offense.

DFS Lean: Little fantasy appeal overall; maybe a one-off Diggs or Olave piece in game stacks, but mostly a spot to fade.

Pick’em Pick: New England Patriots

Tennessee Titans @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Titans 18.75, Raiders 22.75

I’ve mostly been looking at this game as an Ashton Jeanty + Raiders Defense spot – but this might actually be the best matchup the Titans have had all season.

They’re coming off a win, though I can’t really give them much credit for it. If there was ever a team that lost a game rather than the opponent winning it, it was the Cardinals last week. Still, Calvin Ridley is showing some signs of life, and this is the softest matchup Tennessee has faced so far. We might finally see Cam Ward get to open things up a bit more than he’s been allowed to in recent weeks.

Both defenses are bottom-tier, and that raises the possibility that this game turns out higher scoring than expected. That keeps multiple lineup paths in play:

The straightforward build: Jeanty + Raiders Defense – a correlated, game-script-friendly combo
The contrarian pivot: Ward + Ridley + Jeanty, leaning into a shootout version of the game
If pricing allows, you could even extend it with Ward + Ridley + Elic Ayomanor + Jeanty, telling the story of a true back-and-forth

I’ve been building plenty of Young stacks, some Trevor Lawrence stacks, and a few Cowboys stacks, but this Ward configuration might sneak onto my shortlist if the salaries line up. It’s the kind of sneaky mid-tier passing stack that can create unique lineup structures if the game shoots out.

I don’t have much interest in any other Raiders pieces outside Jeanty, and I’ll be staying away from the Titans’ running game altogether.

Pick’em: Las Vegas Raiders

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: 49ers 22.25, Buccaneers 25.25

I really don’t want to target this game – but everything about it sets up exactly like last week’s Seattle–Tampa Bay matchup, which ended up being far more DFS-relevant than expected.

Both teams are banged up, and both will likely need to rely on the passing game. That gives this matchup some sneaky fantasy appeal even though it doesn’t look exciting on paper.

Christian McCaffrey should once again be heavily involved as a receiver. I don’t love him on FanDuel because of Tampa’s elite run defense, but on DraftKings, the full PPR scoring helps offset that. If he can finally find the end zone once or twice, this could easily turn into the monster CMC game we’ve been waiting for.

McCaffrey’s salary has climbed back to $8,400 on DraftKings, which means he needs about 33–34 points to deliver true tournament-winning value. Historically, he’s reached that mark against Tampa Bay about 30 percent of the time, and the Buccaneers’ defense has been among the league’s toughest on the ground since Vita Vea joined in 2018.

What complicates things even more this week is San Francisco’s injury situation. With several offensive weapons banged up, Tampa will be able to key even harder on McCaffrey, forcing the 49ers to win through short passes and field position rather than explosive rushing. That raises his floor through receptions but lowers the likelihood of a 30-plus point ceiling game.

The most probable outcome is a solid, volume-driven 20–25 DK-point performance–good, but not the 4× return needed at this salary. Unless you’re betting on McCaffrey finding multiple touchdowns, this looks more like a fade-for-leverage spot than a must-play week for CMC.

On the Buccaneers’ side, they’re missing almost everyone – Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Bucky Irving are all out. That leaves Rachaad White to handle the backfield and Cade Otton as a likely short-area target magnet. Even though my tight-end pool is centered on Ferguson, Warren, and Hunter Long, Otton fits right into the conversation as another cheap, contrarian TE option to differentiate lineups.

If you try to jam McCaffrey into lineups, pairing him with the 49ers defense actually makes a lot of sense – not only for salary reasons, but also as a correlated script where Baker Mayfield finally struggles without his top weapons.

That said, Baker has proven surprisingly resilient all season, continuing to spread the ball and move the offense despite injuries. Because of that, there’s even a path to a “Baker naked” build or a Baker + Otton mini-stack on one side with McCaffrey on the other.

We could also see Jauan Jennings step into a short-area slot role, absorbing some of the quick, short work we saw Smith-Njigba get in the Seahawks game. Those short passes could also just funnel back to McCaffrey.

Overall, I expect a tight, scrappy game between two injured teams. I’ll give a slight edge to Tampa Bay because I think their defense can give Mac Jones trouble.

Pick’em: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bengals 15, Packers 29.5

Could it finally be time for the Joe Flacco game we’ve been waiting for?

We just saw Ja’Marr Chase do Ja’Marr Chase things last week, and now he gets an upgrade at quarterback and a friendly matchup against Green Bay. That combination gives this game real ceiling potential if Flacco can stabilize the Bengals’ offense.

On the other side, Josh Jacobs will be in every lineup of mine this week. He’s in an outstanding spot – the matchup couldn’t be much better – and he should be able to run at will against Cincinnati. Expect heavy volume and touchdown opportunities.

Tucker Kraft is another key piece here. He’s the starting point in the Packers’ passing attack and also in a favorable spot against a defense that struggles to cover tight ends.

You can absolutely stack this game up:

Flacco → Chase, with Jacobs + Kraft on the other side, makes for a logical high-ceiling build
Before the Flacco move, I was leaning heavily toward Jacobs + Packers Defense, but Flacco’s presence changes that calculus – he’s more likely to protect the ball and limit the defensive upside

If you don’t want exposure to Cincinnati’s passing side, that’s fine – you can still go Jacobs + Kraft + Packers Defense, just be sure to find salary uniqueness elsewhere.

Either way, this game has multiple viable paths and clear correlation structures.

Pick’em: Green Bay Packers

Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Rams 26, Ravens 18.5

Last week I tried to get sneaky with the Ravens defense, hoping they could find some spark and motivation despite being decimated by injuries. That definitely didn’t work – and I don’t think it will this week either.

The Rams are simply a better team than the Texans, and while it’s hard to imagine topping the result Houston just posted against Baltimore, this matchup should play out in a very similar way. The Ravens are undermanned and vulnerable, and Los Angeles should control this game from start to finish.

I’m not interested in paying all the way up for Puka Nacua here. His price is steep, and this isn’t a spot where I want to allocate that much salary. I’m still somewhat tempted by Davante Adams, mostly because of his price and consistent red-zone usage, but my main focus will be Kyren Williams.

Williams’ price is reasonable, and this is exactly the kind of game where the Rams can just let him run wild – 100 yards, a couple touchdowns, and a handful of catches is firmly within reach. I’ll be sticking with Kyren, and I’m not planning to bring anyone back on the other side.

If you want to build a pairing, Kyren Williams + Rams Defense makes a ton of sense – similar to how we’ve been treating combinations like Jacobs + Packers, Jeanty + Raiders, or McCaffrey + 49ers. It’s a straightforward, correlated play that can easily pay off if the game goes as expected.

The Rams defense should be able to confuse Cooper Rush enough to create turnovers and keep the Ravens’ offense out of sync. I do think Derrick Henry will have a bit more success this week than last, but I’m still not expecting a competitive enough game to justify chasing him in DFS builds.

Now, if you want to tell a different story – one where the Ravens keep it close – that’s perfectly viable for a large-field “lottery” lineup. Maybe Henry breaks a few big runs, Isaiah Likely or Zay Flowers finds the end zone, and Cooper Rush surprises. You could stack Stafford, Adams, Kyren, and then bring it back with Henry and either Likely or Flowers to build out a full-on shootout script.

It’s a low-probability outcome, but if it hits, you’ll likely be unique enough to win first place outright – exactly the kind of upside narrative that’s worth one entry in a big tournament.

Still, for my main builds this week: Kyren Williams and the Rams defense will be the focus.

Pick’em: Los Angeles Rams

Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Seahawks 23.25, Jaguars 24.25

With Brenton Strange sidelined, there’s going to be a lot more opportunity for the Jaguars’ primary receivers this week. That injury funnels targets even more directly toward Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.

We’ve been waiting for that Brian Thomas Jr. monster game, and the usage has been there. He’s consistently seeing strong route participation and end-zone involvement, but hasn’t yet connected for the big day. The Jaguars have been fine in the win-loss column, which has masked how bad the offense has been.

Hunter Long filling in for Strange is in a nice spot for volume.

Value Running Back Watch

With Omarion Hampton and Ashton Jeanty both hitting IR, the field is going to flock to the next men up – Kamani Vidal and possibly Hassan Haskins. Both project for expanded roles, but this situation isn’t the same as last week’s Carter or Demarcado plays.

The difference is pricing and uncertainty.

Haskins appears to be the true next man up, which makes Vidal more of a rotational piece
Even if Haskins handles the bulk of the early-down work, there’s no guarantee on passing-game usage or goal-line preference, and that’s what you’re paying for now
Both are priced higher than Carter and Demarcado were, removing most of the value

At current salaries, both are fine for large-field tournaments if you want exposure, but not must-plays. I’ll likely be staying away and letting others take on the guesswork.

Christian McCaffrey – Fade (for now)

I’m probably fading McCaffrey this week. He should still see plenty of passing-game work, so if you want to play him on DraftKings, that’s defensible given the full PPR scoring. But on FanDuel, where touchdowns matter more, this is a tougher spot.

It’s not that CMC can’t get there – he always can – but it’s just tough to run on the Buccaneers, and that limits his rushing ceiling. I’m hoping for one more week without the monster game, letting his ownership and price stabilize, before jumping back in. Ideally, we’ll catch him right before the inevitable multi-TD breakout that sparks his usual run of ceiling weeks.

FanDuel Ownership Analysis

Quarterbacks

No major surprises at the top this week – Baker Mayfield is right up there in projected ownership, followed by Drake Maye, with Justin Herbert also among the most popular. Herbert makes sense given the Chargers’ running-back situation, but he’s expensive, and that’ll limit how much people can stack around him.

One name that stands out a bit is Lawrence – ownership projections have him higher than expected, given his inconsistency and the matchup. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott is only around 5% owned, which is surprising. With the Cowboys–Panthers game likely to be popular, it’s interesting to see the crowd prioritizing the running game (Dowdle, Williams) instead of Dak stacks.

At that ownership, I have no hesitation going to Prescott. If this game hits – and it’s one of my favorite spots on the slate – a 5% Dak could end up being the leverage play of the week.

Young sits right next to him in ownership, and my early DraftKings builds leaned his way because of better pricing, but on FanDuel, Dak’s upside and correlation paths make him more appealing.

A few other notes:

Jordan Love is way down the list, even though the Packers have the highest implied total of the week. Most of the field is locking in Josh Jacobs, assuming it’s a run-heavy game. I’m with them – but you could get contrarian by stacking Love + Jacobs + Tucker Kraft, or flipping the build and running it through Joe Flacco on the other side
Flacco himself is more interesting on DraftKings because of pricing gaps – I’m less likely to go there on FanDuel, where he’s closer to Dak in cost and ownership

Bottom line: Prescott at ~5% is the early standout for FanDuel tournaments. He gives you ceiling, leverage, and a direct correlation path in one of the week’s best DFS environments.

Running Backs

As expected, Jacobs headlines the slate – and deservedly so. He’s in a great spot, and we’ve already talked about him being one of the key building blocks this week. Javonte Williams is right behind him, also drawing a ton of attention.

That makes for a nice tournament leverage opportunity: instead of going Javonte, you can start with Prescott, pair him with George Pickens, and maybe even go back to Ferguson. You’re still attacking the same game environment but doing it through the air instead of the chalky ground game.

Dowdle comes in high too, and while he’s in a solid spot, I’m leaning toward fading him. I prefer to bet on Young and McMillan picking up volume in garbage time. That said, the Cowboys defense is being overlooked – they’re a sneaky piece that feels terrible to click on given how many points they’ve been giving up.

McCaffrey isn’t at the very top but is still in that 20–25% range. I’m less likely to go there this week. The salary is steep, and Tampa’s front can force San Francisco into shorter, slower possessions. McCaffrey could easily have a solid floor game, but the odds of him hitting a 30+ ceiling are lower in this matchup.

Taylor is another name in the top 5. He’s expensive, and while the Colts should control that game, I don’t see enough passing work or explosive potential to justify it on FanDuel.

Rounding out the top 10 are Ashton Jeanty, Henry, Jaylen Warren, White, and Judkins. Jeanty and White sit near 15%, and while I like Jeanty’s role and versatility, I’m off White on FanDuel. He’s more of a DraftKings play because so much of his value comes from receiving work.

As for Henry, I think he’ll bounce back slightly, but the Rams should control that game. I’m not expecting enough volume or scoring chances for Henry to smash. Warren around 10% is about 10% too high – Cleveland’s rush defense is too strong. If I touch that game, it’s with Judkins, who has shown more explosiveness, but even then, I’ll likely avoid the game altogether.

The first running back that really stands out to me is Kyren Williams. He’s $8,400 – not cheap – but it’s a great matchup. If people are trying to force in Nacua, I’d rather play the leverage angle that Kyren scores multiple touchdowns, leaving Puka underwhelming. On FanDuel, that touchdown equity matters.

Tony Pollard is cheap enough to be feasible, but I’d rather play Jeanty and bring it back with a Ridley, Ayomanor, or even Ward stack.

Michael Carter appears to be ruled out, so we’ll need to monitor whether Demarcado steps back into a full role despite his goal-line fumble last week. The coach sort of apologized to him, so it’s possible he gets the bell-cow treatment if Carter sits.

Further down, we’ve got some interesting low-ownership plays:

Stevenson and Henderson are still splitting, and I’m avoiding both for now
Chase Brown becomes slightly more appealing with Flacco under center; he could see more checkdowns, though I still prefer Flacco stacks to Brown exposure
Haskins and Vidal – I’m staying away, even at low ownership
Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker are cannibalizing each other’s workloads, so neither has a ceiling path right now
Justice Hill is mildly interesting, but again, better suited for DraftKings, where his receptions matter more

Finally, Demarcado is way down near 0%. If Carter is confirmed out, that’ll bump him a bit, but he still might stay low-owned, which makes him a nice contrarian tournament dart.

Overall, this is a week where ownership is spread out – no 35% mega-chalk. We’ve got 7–8 players between 15–25%, which means you can build leverage by simply picking the right one to fade. My favorites right now: Jeanty for stability, Kyren Williams for leverage, and then we’ll see what opens up for that third RB spot as injury news settles.

Wide Receivers

At the top of the board this week, we’ve got Diggs, McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Nacua, and Pickens, all coming in above the 20% ownership range. For the most part, these names are expected – but ownership concentration at the top opens plenty of room to get different.

Diggs is an easy fade for me this week. Yes, he’s getting more work, but New England continues to spread the ball, and the Saints’ defense is sneakier than people think. I’m not interested in playing the highest-owned WR on the slate in what could easily be a low scoring game.

I had originally planned to attack the Young → McMillan side heavily, but with the Flacco trade, I’m pivoting more toward Flacco builds and away from Young. The Cowboys defense also looks a little underrated in this matchup – especially against a rookie QB – which makes me less enthusiastic about paying $6,600 for McMillan on FanDuel. He still works on DraftKings, but I’ll likely fade him on both sites in my primary lineup.

Egbuka is in a similar spot. He’s effectively the only healthy top-end receiver for the Buccaneers, but he’s expensive, and I don’t love the scoring environment. Tampa’s defense should be able to give Mac Jones trouble, and I think this game underwhelms overall. He’s a fade for me at his ownership levels.

Nacua always has ceiling, but at near 25% ownership and a salary that requires a 30-point game, I’ll pass. He can get there, but there’s no reason for him to need to in this matchup – I’d much rather play Williams at 10% and bet on the touchdowns coming on the ground.

The first player who really catches my attention is Pickens. His salary has risen, but his end-zone involvement makes him a strong option. Even at 20% ownership, he’s fine to play – especially because Prescott is just 5% owned. A Dak + Pickens stack gives you strong leverage off Williams chalk, and if you add Ferguson, it becomes a powerful, unique full stack.

Davante Adams is another name I like a lot this week. We’ve been waiting for him to explode, and if ever there was a time, this would be it. Between Puka needing 30 DK points at 25% ownership and Adams needing 24 points at 5–10%, I’m happy to take the leverage on Adams and his red-zone role – especially on FanDuel, where TDs matter more.

We’re still waiting for the Brian Thomas Jr. breakout game, but I’m not sure it’s this week. Calvin Ridley at $5,700 is far more interesting – pairing him with Jeanty on the other side makes for a strong correlation play at modest ownership (5–10%).

Rashid Shaheed at $5,800 and 5% ownership also makes sense. The Patriots have been giving up big plays, and he’s always a candidate to catch one deep. I’m not personally targeting that game, but he’s a solid one-off to round out a roster.

We also talked earlier about Jacksonville–Seattle as a potential sneaky shootout spot. Hunter is cheap and low-owned – I’m not going there myself, but if you need a salary-saver WR, he fits the mold.

Now, Ja’Marr Chase at ~2% ownership is a surprise. Coming off a big game and now with a better quarterback in Flacco, he’s in a spot where he’ll likely be playing from behind – plenty of volume. His high salary is scaring people off, but at 2% ownership, you can absolutely make a game-theory case that Chase is a must-play. You could play Flacco naked and hope Chase just has a “good” game, not a “great” one, or you can stack them directly for ceiling.

Finally, Ayomanor at <1% ownership offers true contrarian upside. The Titans have their easiest matchup of the year, and while I expect it to be more of a Ridley game, at that ownership, you can easily make a case for betting on Ayomanor’s big-play ability – especially in Jeanty bring-backs.

Key FanDuel WR Takeaways:

Fade: Diggs, McMillan, Egbuka, Nacua
Play: Pickens (leverage off Javonte), Adams (TD equity), Ridley (correlation with Jeanty)
Contrarian Dart Throws: Shaheed, Chase (2%), Ayomanor (1%)

Tight Ends

No surprise at the top this week – McBride leads the ownership projections, with Michael Mayer sneaking into the top tier as well. Mayer’s jump comes with Brock Bowers out, but keep in mind: he’s being asked to block more than to run routes. I’m not chasing that – I’d rather stick with Jeanty from the same game and fade Mayer altogether.

Instead, I’ll take the ownership discount on Tucker Kraft, Tyler Warren, and Jake Ferguson, all coming in at roughly half the ownership of McBride and Mayer.

Kraft is in a great spot – he’s effectively the engine of Green Bay’s passing game right now. I like him a little more on DraftKings, where his receptions matter more, but he’s viable on FanDuel as well
Warren is also in a solid spot and continues to show consistent usage
Ferguson at just 5–6% ownership is one of my favorite plays of the week. With Williams projected as one of the highest-owned players, a Dak + Pickens + Ferguson stack gives you excellent leverage and upside

Hunter Long is very cheap filling in for Strange, and while I prefer him on DraftKings for his potential short-to-intermediate volume, he’s at least worth mentioning as a punt play.

Otton fits a similar mold – affordable, solid usage, but more appealing on DraftKings, where receptions carry more weight. We’ve got enough quality options at reasonable ownership on FanDuel that I don’t feel the need to dip that low.

And, of course, there’s Taysom Hill, who always lurks as a potential slate-ruiner. He’s up to $5,000, which prices me out, but we all know how unpredictable he can be in short-yardage situations.

Waller is sitting near 1% ownership, which is interesting given his upside – he’s not a priority, but he’s worth mentioning as a pure leverage dart.

The Ravens tight ends are also surprisingly low-owned. With Cooper Rush under center, you’d think Baltimore would lean more on quick passes, but both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are being ignored. Likely in particular is running more routes than Andrews and could make sense in a contrarian game stack opposite Williams if you’re betting on the Ravens keeping pace. I won’t be going there myself, but the logic is sound.

Key FanDuel TE Takeaways:

Chalk: McBride, Mayer – both fine but overpriced and over-owned
Preferred Tier: Kraft, Warren, Ferguson (especially in Dak stacks)
Punt Options: Long, Otton (better on DraftKings)
Contrarian Darts: Waller, Likely (deep GPP pivots)

Defense

At the top of the board this week sits the Raiders defense, which makes plenty of sense on paper facing the Titans. Still, this might actually be Tennessee’s best offensive matchup of the year, and as I’ve built more lineups, I’ve found myself pivoting away from the Raiders and instead leaning into mini-stacks like Jeanty + Ridley from that same game.

From there, I’m more comfortable paying up slightly for defenses that combine talent with leverage:

The Rams are in a great spot against a limited Ravens offense led by Cooper Rush
The Packers have a strong pass rush and face a mistake-prone Bengals team
And I actually like Tampa Bay as a sneaky leverage play against San Francisco. With McCaffrey projected for heavy ownership, playing the Bucs defense gives you direct leverage against one of the slate’s chalkiest players

If you’re going to play Williams at high ownership, you can even double down and pair him with the Cowboys defense. It’s a contrarian construction – the defense likely comes in near zero ownership – but the game script makes sense: if Dallas dominates, both Williams’ volume and the Cowboys’ sack opportunities go up. It’s risky, but exactly the type of leverage play that can separate tournament builds.

Some other notes:

The Steelers are expensive, and while they do face Gabriel in just his second start, I think that game stays slow and low-scoring without generating enough turnovers for a true ceiling performance
Carolina is getting some attention purely because of price, but I won’t be going there. I think the Cowboys will control that game

As of now, my top two defenses on FanDuel are:

Los Angeles Rams – pressure advantage and strong correlation with Williams stacks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – salary savings and direct leverage against CMC ownership

DraftKings Ownership Analysis

Quarterbacks

We’re seeing a similar picture to FanDuel this week, but with some subtle and important differences. Maye, Mayfield, Lawrence, and Daniel Jones sit near the top in projected ownership. Herbert jumps higher here than he does on FanDuel – and that makes sense. With the Chargers’ backfield decimated, Herbert projects for more dropbacks and has a clearer path to a ceiling game. He’s priced near the top, but he earns it.

Scrolling down, we find Dak Prescott near the bottom of the top 10 at roughly 5% ownership. That’s nearly identical to his FanDuel ownership, but the pricing dynamics make it even more interesting here. Let’s compare that to Joe Flacco, who’s sitting at around 1% ownership. This is where the DraftKings vs. FanDuel difference really starts to matter.

On FanDuel, where the general value target is 3× salary, the price gap between Dak and Flacco is less than $2,000. That means we’d only need Dak to score roughly 5 more points than Flacco to justify the higher salary. In that context, it’s easy to expect Dak to outperform Flacco by that margin.

But on DraftKings, we operate on a 4× multiplier. Here, Dak comes in at $6,500, and Flacco is way down at $4,000 – a $2,500 gap. To hit their target values, that means Dak needs to outscore Flacco by about 10 DK points.

That difference is meaningful. At those prices, it becomes much more reasonable to say: “Yeah, I could see Flacco getting within 10 points of Dak – especially if Dak’s game slows down late and Flacco’s chasing volume.”

So while Dak remains my preferred FanDuel tournament play, Flacco gains ground on DraftKings simply due to price-based flexibility. You can build more balanced lineups or jam in premium pieces like Jacobs and Chase while still having a path to 20+ points from your quarterback.

Jones and Lawrence are fine, but I’m not excited about them at ownership. I’d rather spend down for Flacco or spend up for Herbert.

Mayfield and Maye continue to hover in that 10–12% range, and while they’re solid plays, their ownership doesn’t offer much leverage. They’re fine for cash games or balanced builds but less appealing for GPPs unless you pair them with a unique stack.

Running Backs

On DraftKings, McCaffrey rises back to the top of the board – which makes sense. Unlike FanDuel, where touchdown equity carries more weight, DraftKings’ full-PPR scoring rewards McCaffrey’s passing-game involvement, even against Tampa Bay’s elite run defense. He’ll still face resistance on the ground, but his volume and target share keep him in play here.

Williams and Dowdle are once again near the top in ownership, but I’m sticking with Josh Jacobs as my top running back on the slate. He’s my lock play this week – I’ll have him in every lineup.

Jacobs deserves to be higher owned than both Javonte and Rico, and you could even argue he should be right there with McCaffrey. He’s in a better game environment, with a clearer workload and touchdown path, and he comes at a friendlier price point for his ceiling.

Taylor falls slightly compared to FanDuel, which highlights the difference between the two platforms. Without as much receiving work and with TDs meaning less here, his profile doesn’t pop the same way.

Chase Brown is an interesting case. He’s hovering in that top-15 to top-20 range – not chalky, but relevant – and could see more passing-down work this week. Typically, we don’t play two running backs from the same game, but if you’re telling the story that Brown is the comeback piece via checkdowns, there’s a case for using him as a sneaky correlation play with Jacobs.

Down in the lower tier, Hill at $4,700 is worth noting. With Brown at $5,600, the pricing gap makes Brown look even better from a value standpoint.

If I’m starting with Flacco lineups and fading Chase, I like the idea of building a Flacco + Brown mini-stack. Both are cheap enough to pay off their salaries independently, while Chase would need a full-on explosion game to hit 4× at his price.

Overall, the DraftKings RB pool is fairly predictable this week:

Chalk: McCaffrey, Javonte Williams, Dowdle
Core: Jacobs (my RB1), Kyren Williams, Jeanty
Value / Differentiation: Brown, Hill
Fade: Taylor (TD-dependent), Dowdle (ownership vs. ceiling)

Wide Receivers

At the top of the ownership board, we’ve got Diggs and Olave, both sitting around 20%. Their popularity is easy to explain: both are underpriced relative to their ceilings. Diggs has been producing consistently, and Olave at this salary can do serious damage.

That said, I’m likely to fade both. Ownership and salary are working against us here – the entire field is chasing the same builds, and neither Diggs nor Olave has a lock on touchdown equity. Instead, I’m leaning down to Calvin Ridley, who’s both cheaper and sitting at less than half their ownership. If you’re already building around Jeanty on the other side, that correlation makes even more sense.

If I do find a build that includes Brown, I’ll need to make decisions between Jacobs, Williams, and Jeanty to fit salary.

McMillan remains reasonably priced at $6,000, but that tag still requires a strong game for him to pay off, and it’s a sneaky spot for the Cowboys defense. For similar pricing, I’d rather have Allen over McConkey – Allen gives you more stability and is slightly less popular.

If I make the case to add Brown, one pivot I like is dropping Williams and going back to Davante Adams on DraftKings. That creates direct leverage off Nacua ownership and builds the narrative that the touchdowns go through Adams instead of Kyren. It also lets me keep my Ridley + Jeanty stack intact while still having a path to ceiling points from the same game.

Ja’Marr Chase is slightly higher owned on DraftKings – around 5% – but still far lower than his talent justifies. He’s expensive, but he remains a strong one-off play in a Flacco stack.

Beyond that, the WR ownership landscape looks fairly similar to FanDuel: concentrated at the top but with plenty of viable pivots in the 5–10% range that can create leverage without sacrificing ceiling.

Tight Ends

Things look pretty similar to FanDuel at the top, with McBride leading ownership again. But the distribution beneath him is a little more balanced on DraftKings. Tucker Kraft climbs slightly, while Tyler Warren and Jake Ferguson sit solidly in that mid-tier range. Mayer and Long drop a bit, reflecting how DraftKings players are prioritizing routes and receptions over touchdown upside.

Kraft continues to be one of my favorite plays on the slate. He’s affordable, heavily involved in the offense, and offers both floor and ceiling potential, especially with Green Bay leaning more on short-area passing. Ferguson is right behind him for me – with CeeDee Lamb expected to miss another week, Ferguson remains a reliable red-zone and chain-moving target for Prescott, and the ownership discount makes him an excellent tournament option.

What’s interesting here is how Likely fits into the mix. At $2,800, he’s only $300 more than Long ($2,500). Given that Baltimore will likely need to throw and that Likely has quietly been out-snapping and out-targeting Andrews, I can definitely see taking a shot on him as a cheap bring-back on the other side of that Rams game. The risk, of course, is that you’re betting on Cooper Rush and the Ravens’ passing offense to be competent enough to sustain him – that’s a thin needle to thread, but it’s a viable large-field tournament dart.

If you’re digging deeper, Hill at $3,000 also deserves mention. If I’m fading Olave and looking for salary relief, Hill gives you a way to leverage that ownership. He’s always capable of stumbling into 12+ points via a mix of weird plays – a touchdown pass here, a goal-line run there. He’s volatile but viable if you’re embracing chaos in MME builds.

Overall, though, I’ll be concentrating most of my exposure on:

Kraft – my top overall TE for price and volume
Ferguson – excellent correlation with Dak and Pickens, especially if Lamb is out
Likely / Long / Hill – deep GPP pivots under $3K for lineup differentiation

Defense

Similar dynamics to FanDuel here. The Raiders remain popular against Tennessee, but I’m pivoting toward Rams and Packers defenses for better correlation paths. The Buccaneers offer strong leverage against CMC ownership, and the Cowboys are a near-zero-owned contrarian option if you’re doubling down on a Dallas blowout script.

My preferred defenses on DraftKings:

Los Angeles Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers

Yahoo Value Analysis

Yahoo pricing creates dramatically different value opportunities this week compared to FanDuel and DraftKings. Here are the players offering the biggest discounts on Yahoo relative to the other sites.

Tight End

Cade Otton at $10 on Yahoo is the standout value at the position. He’s priced at $4,800 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings, making him 33% cheaper on Yahoo. With Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Bucky Irving all out for Tampa Bay, Otton projects for significant target volume at absolute minimum salary.

Running Back

The Chargers backfield offers massive discounts with Hassan Haskins ($10 Yahoo vs $5,600 FD / $5,000 DK) and Kimani Vidal ($10 Yahoo vs $5,400 FD / $5,000 DK) both nearly 50% cheaper on Yahoo than the other sites.

Sean Tucker at $10 on Yahoo compared to $4,900 FanDuel and $4,500 DraftKings represents a 41% discount. With Bucky Irving out, Tucker’s change-of-pace role has real touchdown upside.

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks costs $10 on Yahoo versus $4,900 on FanDuel, a 33% discount. In the Saints’ high-pace dome offense, he’s running consistent routes.

Isaiah Bond is $10 on Yahoo compared to $4,700 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DraftKings, offering a 33% discount for Cleveland’s WR2 in Cedric Tillman’s absence.

Ryan Flournoy at $10 on Yahoo versus $5,200 FanDuel represents a 38% discount, though his role remains inconsistent.

Final Thoughts

This is a week where correlation and leverage will separate the winning lineups from the rest. With ownership spread across multiple 15–25% plays at running back and wide receiver, there’s no single chalky build dominating the field.

My core approach:

Lock in Jacobs as my RB1 across all builds
Fade the chalk RBs (Javonte, Rico, CMC on FanDuel) and build around Jeanty and Kyren Williams
Attack the Cowboys–Panthers game through the passing game with Dak + Pickens + Ferguson
Use Flacco on DraftKings as a salary-saver to fit premium pieces
Target mini-stacks like Ridley + Jeanty

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