NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 3
Last week, both our FanDuel and DraftKings main lineups just missed min-cashing in their tournaments. While we’re never building with min-cash in mind – we’re aiming for first place – it always takes some of the sting out of a losing week if those lineups do cash.
We were just a bit early on the Lions stack with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams, highlighting them as low owned in week one. When I’m reviewing ownership, I’m always looking for spots exactly like that – a high-upside offense or group of players that slips under the radar because all the attention is elsewhere. Those are the situations that can win you a million dollars, as we saw last weekend when the Lions put up over 50 points.
The Cowboys and Bears are projected with the highest total of the week at 50 points – the first game at that level this year. We saw Javonte Williams get a couple of TDs in Week 1, so he could be going a little bit under the radar this week with all the attention going to the passing game. Rome Odunze, coming back on the other side, has been getting a lot of work, and he still seems like a good option in this high-scoring game environment. We could also just continue stacking up the full passing game like we did last week with Dak, Lamb, Ferguson, and an Odunze or DJ Moore on the other side.
Game Previews
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Packers 24.75, Browns 16.75
Ted’s Preview:
This game has the most lopsided spread of the weekend, and it’s not surprising. The Packers comfortably won their first two games against theoretical playoff contenders in the Lions and Commanders. The Browns are many things, but playoff contenders is not one of them. If the Packers’ defense hadn’t looked so dominant to start the season, this might be a place where we could hope for garbage-time fantasy production from Cleveland. Given their projected total is the lowest of the week, we might be looking at a complete steamrolling instead.
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love has been one of the league’s most efficient QBs so far this season, but he simply hasn’t had to do much. That doesn’t look likely to change this week, so he settles in as a borderline QB1 whose fantasy success will likely be decided by how many passing TDs he racks up. Joe Flacco is essentially the opposite. He hasn’t been efficient, but the one thing keeping him at least a little intriguing is his 96 dropbacks through two games. Unfortunately, against this Packers defense, those dropbacks may be just as likely to result in negative fantasy plays as positive ones — Flacco is only a desperation option in 2-QB leagues.
Running Backs
The Browns’ run defense has quietly been effective, including shutting down Derrick Henry last week. With that in mind, this matchup is marginally less of an obvious smash for Josh Jacobs than it would otherwise be … but he’s still a locked-and-loaded RB1. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s backfield is a mess. Quinshon Judkins saw a ton of usage on limited snaps in his NFL debut last week. But it’s hard to see him jumping straight from a 26% snap share to a workhorse role, so Dylan Sampson and/or Jerome Ford will likely remain involved at least one more week. Given the brutal matchup, I’d avoid all three of them if you can, with Judkins being the most playable of the group.
Wide Receivers
With Jayden Reed out, the Packers’ wide receiver room might finally be predictable. Dontayvion Wicks is filling Reed’s shoes in the slot, Romeo Doubs is playing his usual role as an every-down snap eater, and Matthew Golden will hopefully see more work as the team’s deep threat. The responsible way to rank this trio is probably Doubs > Wicks > Golden, with the rookie being the most high-variance member of the group. But I’ve always been a believer in Wicks, who consistently produces (or at least earns and then drops targets) when he is on the field. Regardless, there won’t be much volume to go around in this one, so they’re all just flex plays. For Cleveland, Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman are also flex plays. It’s tempting to say they will rack up garbage time production on 50+ Flacco dropbacks, but Green Bay has so far shut down two much more talented offenses even in positive game scripts.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft injured his knee on Thursday, and we haven’t really gotten clear reporting on the severity of the issue. If I had to guess, he misses at least this week. If he’s active, he’s a locked-in TE1. If not, Luke Musgrave could be a viable streaming option. The Browns may be the only team in the league with two genuinely viable fantasy TEs. Both David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. are borderline TE1s, especially in PPR formats where they can rack up checkdowns from Flacco.
DFS Thoughts:
I really wanted to get to Tucker Kraft, but it looks like he might be out. We could go with his backup. We might see the wide receiver step up a little bit more. Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks. You can play around with salary and see which of those fit in if you’re looking for a single player. Both of these teams are very good against the run. And we know the Packers can put up points on the offensive side. So if they’re coming out throwing and the Browns have to come out throwing to keep up, this could be that Joe Flacco game that we’ve been looking for.
Pick’em Winner: Packers
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Colts 24.0, Titans 19.5
Ted’s Preview:
Full credit to Shane Steichen, who has proven so far this season that he only needs competence at the QB position (to go with talented weapons and an excellent O-line) to orchestrate a great offense. Meanwhile, Cam Ward is flashing just the right amount to still have a bright future while simultaneously killing the Titans’ offense for the moment.
Quarterbacks
Everything Daniel Jones has been doing is excellent. I’m a little hesitant to crown him a locked-in QB1 given he won’t get a QB sneak TD (or two) every game, but he’s at worst a high-end QB2 at this point. Cam Ward is only an option if you’re desperate in a 2-QB format.
Running Backs
Both Jonathan Taylor and Tony Pollard are in the conversation for the truest bell cows in the league right now. That is enough to make Taylor an elite RB1 on a good offense and Pollard an RB2 on a bad one.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman is back from his broken back, has a QB who isn’t historically inaccurate, and is back to being a weekly WR3. Josh Downs has the talent but not the usage, so he’s just a flex play. For the Titans, Elic Ayomanor is seeing usage almost as good as Calvin Ridley’s. The issue is that their offense is barely good enough to support one receiver, let alone two. That makes them both flex options, with Ridley still being the safer of the two.
Tight Ends
Tyler Warren is questionable (now has no injury designation) with a toe injury but is already a must-start TE1 when he is healthy. Chigoziem Okonkwo is another classic TE2.
DFS Thoughts:
We talked about Elic Ayomanor for the Titans last week, he did get a score and is coming into their best matchup that they’ve had this season, a matchup that, on paper, we think will allow him to get a little more free than he has been. He could be worth putting into a stack with Jonathan Taylor or Tyler Warren, or a complete game over stack, throwing Daniel Jones in, or just Jones and Warren.
Pick’em Winner: Colts
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bengals 19.75, Vikings 22.75
Ted’s Preview:
Before the season, this looked like a potentially epic matchup between superstar Joe Burrow and ascending young talent J.J. McCarthy. Instead, we get Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz in a matchup with one of the lowest totals of the week. There are still clear fantasy studs on both sides here, but it’s hard not to think about what could have been.
Quarterbacks
It’s easy to be optimistic about both of these backup QBs. Jake Browning averaged 20 points per game filling in for Burrow in 2023. Carson Wentz pulling a Sam Darnold and riding Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson to fantasy viability is by no means impossible, especially against a weak Cincinnati defense. But these guys are still backups for a reason, and the low totals aren’t encouraging. They’re both high-risk/high-reward QB2 options.
Running Backs
Chase Brown has seen arguably the best usage of any RB in the league through two weeks. But with Aaron Jones sidelined and literally no other meaningful competition, Jordan Mason might actually have the best projected workload in this game. They are both borderline RB1s on volume alone, with upside for huge games if their respective QBs can provide competence.
Wide Receivers
I don’t care who is under center; Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are must-starts. The same isn’t quite as true for Tee Higgins, who falls to WR3 territory. It’s definitely not true for Jalen Nailor or Adam Thielen, who are not viable outside of incredibly deep leagues.
Tight Ends
Cincinnati’s tight ends weren’t seeing good enough usage to be playable with Burrow; they’re definitely not usable with Browning. T.J. Hockenson is also on massive bust watch, but the lack of other viable fantasy TEs keeps him as a borderline TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
Jordan Mason is going to be the chalk of the week at running back. I have not looked at his price yet, but I will need to take it into consideration. I have typically shied away from these extreme value RBs in the past when they’re very chalky. It has burned me before, but there have been plenty of times where that chalk has busted and my lineups have moved up as a result. I like to think about these situations like the point difference needed. Let’s just say Jordan Mason is $6,000 and we’re looking for him to get three times his salary, so we want him to get 18 points. And you’ve got another running back that’s $8,000. $2,000 seems like a big difference in price, but it’s really only a six-point difference. $2,000 times three, that’s one touchdown. So don’t get so in love with the value running back and forget that he still needs to score points. Ask yourself, can that $8,000 running back get at least six more points than Jordan Mason?
The Bengals will have Jake Browning at quarterback this week and for the foreseeable future. It doesn’t necessarily drop a guy like Ja’Marr Chase because he’s going to see a lot of quick throws. It hurts Chase Brown a little as defenses will key in on the run a little more. In theory, they might lean on the run, but again, the defenses will know they’re going to lean on the run and will look to lock him down a little bit more as well. We still might get a nice Chase Brown game one of these weeks, but I’ll be staying away this week. Wentz on the other side is probably an upgrade from JJ McCarthy and should be cheap and low owned making a nice leverage play against all the Jordan Mason ownership. Same concept as with Chase Brown; the Bengals will try to make Wentz beat them.
Pick’em Winner: Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Steelers 23.0, Patriots 21.5
Ted’s Preview:
Contrary to their reputations, these teams both rank in the bottom eight in terms of defensive EPA per play. That plus relatively close totals means this game could sneakily be exciting, although both offenses come with their own warts as well.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers came back to Earth in Week 2 after an explosive Steelers debut. He’s just a backend QB2. Drake Maye is more exciting, as his mobility brings upside. He’s a backend QB1.
Running Backs
The story of both of these backfields is rookie running backs with smaller roles than fantasy drafters were hoping for. For the Steelers, Kaleb Johnson is a complete non-factor. Jaylen Warren is the lead back and a backend RB2, while Kenneth Gainwell is also involved enough to deserve deep-league flex consideration. Rhamondre Stevenson showed out last week for the Patriots, but TreVeyon Henderson is more involved than Johnson (it’s a low bar), and Antonio Gibson is filling the Gainwell role. He’s in the RB3 range, while Henderson is a boom-or-bust flex and Gibson is a desperation dart.
Wide Receivers
In shallower leagues, there might only be one playable receiver in this one, and even DK Metcalf is just a WR2. Calvin Austin III is the other Steelers WR to consider, but he’s not inspiring. For the Patriots, Kayshon Boutte and Stefon Diggs are the relevant names (sorry Demario Douglas). Boutte easily leads the team in routes but has a concerningly low target share, while Diggs is the reverse. They’re both deep flex options.
Tight Ends
From being surprise TE1s last year, both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry have fallen from grace. Henry’s usage fall-off is less dramatic, so he’s a high-end TE2 while Jonnu is on the lower end.
DFS Thoughts:
The Patriots and Steelers is another game that could fall into our “Is-This-Game-Like-The-Steelers-And-Jets-In-Week-One” bucket. It’s easier to pass on both of these teams. And if that’s the case, we might see the game take off. You’re still hoping Aaron Rodgers locks on to one person for a couple TDs, like DK Metcalf. But the Steelers play with so many tight ends that it is a little risky making that bet. On the other hand, Drake Maye and Kayshon Boutte are a nice pairing. So if I was going to attack this game, I would probably attack it with Maye, Boutte, and maybe Metcalf. I probably won’t play this game, but that’s how I would play it.
Pick’em Winner: Steelers
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Rams 20.5, Eagles 24.0
Ted’s Preview:
Apparently, winning a Super Bowl just turns teams into joyless winning machines. The Eagles are following the Chiefs’ blueprint of grinding out wins while producing far fewer fantasy points than their talent would suggest they should. Can the Rams score enough to (tush) push them out of their comfort zone? If we trust the projections, probably not.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts is a lot less valuable now that he has given up on throwing the ball down the field. But his insane rushing TD equity means he is still an elite QB1. On the other side, Matthew Stafford is absolutely cooking so far this season. But he adds no value with his legs, and this is a tough matchup, so he is just a QB2.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley has scored exactly 16.4 Half-PPR points in both of his games so far this season. He’s a locked-in RB1. Things are trending against Kyren Williams, as Blake Corum had a big game last week (although his usage is being slightly overblown), and the Eagles’ run defense is dominant. Even still, volume and TD equity make him an RB2.
Wide Receivers
At this point, especially while other top contenders deal with issues, Puka Nacua might just be the WR1 every week he is healthy. Davante Adams is also a must-start WR2 despite the tough matchup – he has a 32% target share so far this season. For the Eagles, I’m giving A.J. Brown at least one more week to do something before downgrading him further than a high-end WR2. It’s a similar story for DeVonta Smith, who drops to WR3 territory but is still very playable.
Tight Ends
The Rams’ lead TE is Tyler Higbee, but he’s still just a desperation “hope for a TD” play. Dallas Goedert is back from injury and immediately back in the TE1 conversation – he is by no means immune from the Eagles’ passing-game struggles, but the state of the TE position means he is a playable option.
DFS Thoughts:
The Eagles and Rams also remind me a little bit of the Jets and Steelers from Week 1. Both teams would prefer to run the ball and lean on their defenses. But both teams have some explosive players, so this could be a similar type of game environment. It could just as equally go to the under though.
This is the game that I think has the biggest chance to take off. I’m fine playing Matthew Stafford with both Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. If you’re only going with one of them, on FanDuel I’d go with Adams where touchdowns are more important. And if you’re in a crunch for salary and you want to play three, I wouldn’t be afraid to drop Puka and take a shot on Jordan Whittington. I’ll probably be coming back on the other side with A.J. Brown, but Saquon Barkley has traditionally done well against this Rams team as well. Maybe we’ll let ownership be the deciding factor on where we go there.
The Eagles seem to be the new Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay Packers, where they’re content to just win games. They don’t care if they throw four touchdowns or zero touchdowns, they just want to win. They’ll have a tougher chance at that this week, where the Rams should be able to push them. So, if the Rams jump out to a lead, we should see Philadelphia open things up and let their playmakers like A.J. Brown have a big role in the game.
Pick’em Winner: Eagles
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Jets 18.5, Buccaneers 25.0
Ted’s Preview:
It’s a sad world we live in where this 25-point total for the Buccaneers is the fourth-highest of the weekend. Meanwhile, the Jets, with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, have the third-lowest projection. This game is all but destined to be a blowout; it’s just a question of what kind of blowout we will get.
Quarterbacks
There was a time when Tyrod Taylor was an exciting dual-threat QB in his own right. At 36, what’s left of his mobility only does just enough to keep him in the borderline QB2 conversation. Baker Mayfield is a solid QB1, although we will have to see what approach new OC Josh Grizzard takes if Tampa Bay gets out to an early lead.
Running Backs
Breece Hall’s results were far worse in Week 2 than Week 1, but his usage was arguably better. He’s an RB2, with a low floor if the Jets’ offense continues its total collapse from last week, but a high ceiling if he can hit on a big play or two. Bucky Irving’s usage is elite, and he is a locked-in RB1. Rachaad White had a genuinely good game last week and could benefit from a lopsided game script, but he’s still just a flex option at best.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson is the only Jets receiver worth playing. He might even benefit from increased passing volume with Taylor instead of Justin Fields, but he’s still just a WR2. For the Buccaneers, I do think the Emeka Egbuka hype has jumped the shark a little; outside of the three TDs he’s scored, his usage is nothing special. He’s a WR3 (assuming he plays through a hip/groin injury), although his presence does knock Mike Evans down to the WR2 range.
Tight Ends
Mason Taylor and Cade Otton are two more members of the Out There Enough You Can Play Them And Hope For A Touchdown Tight End Club. Otton is on the team more likely to score, so he’s the preferred option, but they are both pure dart throws.
DFS Thoughts:
We’ve seen Tyrod Taylor have some successful DFS weeks. I probably won’t go to this game. But if you wanted to make the case that the Bucs have a tough run defense and Taylor will have to be throwing and play some Garrett Wilson, I would be okay with that. And again, Sterling Shepard might get some more work with Emeka Egbuka a little bit banged up and the Jets focusing on Evans.
Pick’em Winner: Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Raiders 20.5, Commanders 23.0
Ted’s Preview:
The Commanders will be without Jayden Daniels in this one, which means it’s Marcus Mariota time. Meanwhile, the Raiders followed up a promising Week 1 performance with an ugly primetime showing against the Chargers. Thankfully, these defenses are both definitely exploitable, so we could still see solid performances from both offenses.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith had a brutal outing last Monday night, but this is a decent potential bounce-back spot. High volume means he is still a viable QB2. Marcus Mariota has weapons and a great matchup, but it’s still very difficult to trust him as more than a risky QB2. A lot will depend on whether he can still add value with his legs in the 11th year of his career.
Running Backs
Ashton Jeanty looks lost in pass pro, is losing receiving work to Dylan Laube, and is running behind a terrible O-line. But I’m still starting him as a clear RB2 – the talent is there, and it’s not like he’s not getting touches.
Wide Receivers
I’ve always been a Terry McLaurin doubter, so take this with a grain of salt … but I don’t see how we can rank him above Deebo Samuel at this point. Samuel has five more targets through two weeks, and he might see extra work with Austin Ekeler unfortunately done for the year. With that said, Mariota under center makes them both backend WR2 or even WR3 options. Jakobi Meyers, who has been seeing excellent volume, is likely above them both as a solid WR2.
Tight Ends
As long as he’s active, Brock Bowers is a must-start. Zach Ertz has been excellent to start the year, but he gets a substantial downgrade without Daniels. He is just a borderline TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
For the Washington Commanders, we got Marcus Mariota starting. He’s min-priced, and it’s always scary to hit submit on his name, but he did perform really well when filling in for Jayden Daniels last year. He’s a name that you definitely shouldn’t overlook, especially if we’re trying to go heavy with a Rams and Eagles stack. We’re trying to get to Bijan and Christian McCaffrey. Mariota’s the type of quarterback that can help you get those expensive players, and because of his rushing upside, he’s got a pretty nice floor as well.
Pick’em Winner: Raiders
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Falcons 24.5, Panthers 19.0
Ted’s Preview:
Honestly, this isn’t that exciting of a game. The Falcons have a few studs, but it’s hard to see them being pushed into ceiling outcomes against their struggling division rivals. Meanwhile, the Panthers are those struggling division rivals, as the Bryce Young experience is going much the same as it has for most of his career so far this season.
Quarterbacks
As mentioned, Bryce Young has mostly been unable to maintain his late 2024 success so far in 2025. With that said, he did have a quality fantasy outing in Week 2 against the Cardinals, albeit mostly in garbage time. He’s not totally unplayable, but he’s just a backend QB2. Michael Penix Jr. has also seen negative fantasy changes from 2024. The Falcons are playing more conservatively, with the third-highest rush rate over expected in the league, and his ADOT has plummeted from a massive 10.6 to a below-average 6.9. He’s a better bet than Young with the Falcons’ superior total, but he’s still solidly in the QB2 range.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson is a must-start every single week. In this soft matchup, he’s very much in the conversation to be the RB1 overall. In fact, this matchup is nice enough that Tyler Allgeier even has deep-league flex value. He has 26 carries through two games and had a solid outing last week, including a goal-line TD. For the Panthers, it’s all about Chuba Hubbard. His workhorse role is intact from 2024, including through the air, and he is a weekly RB2.
Wide Receivers
Drake London is impacted by the Falcons’ conservative playcalling and Penix’s change in aggressiveness, but not enough to make him anything other than an obvious must-start. At worst, he’s more of a WR2 than a WR1. Darnell Mooney was quiet in his 2025 debut last week. He saw a 19% target share, but that was only four targets. He’s just a boom-or-bust flex play in a likely comfortable game for this new-look Atlanta offense. Tetairoa McMillan is already the Panthers’ clear top target. He’s a solid WR2. Even coming off a two-TD game, Hunter Renfrow is just a pure desperation flex play.
Tight Ends
One other thing changed in Atlanta’s offense over the offseason: Kyle Pitts suddenly became an every-down player. That makes him a genuine TE1 candidate, although he is not immune from the overall low passing volume that the Falcons will likely have in this one. Ja’Tavion Sanders is trending in the right direction to be a fantasy starter, but he’s still clearly more of a TE2 than anything else.
DFS Thoughts:
Bijan Robinson against Carolina will be a really good play this week. Every once in a while there’s a game where you can play two running backs from the same team. This is a week where the Falcons, with the best running back in the game right now, going against one of the worst running defenses in the game, should see Bijan get as many yards and touchdowns as he wants. And he should probably get so many that Tyler Allgeier will also get significant playing time and could easily pay off his value. On the surface, this does reduce the upside of Bijan. So if you were going to do this, I would almost rather you just play Allgeier. But it is feasible to play them both.
In cash builds, the Bijan + Allgeier combo makes more sense. You don’t need Bijan to hit 4–5x salary; just 2.5–3x. Allgeier can then take over late and reach 3–4x value himself.
I always liked the RB plus defense pairing. You could pair the Falcons defense with Bijan. Tetairoa McMillan is still getting a lot of targets, and the Panthers are going to constantly be playing from behind. So that’s another way you could either stack on the other side of Bijan, or throw in as a single player in a different lineup. Allgeier plus the Falcons also makes a lot of sense here.
Pick’em Winner: Falcons
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Texans 21.25, Jaguars 22.75
Ted’s Preview:
Based on the narratives currently surrounding these teams, you’d think the Jaguars were sitting at 0-2 with just 28 points in two games, not the Texans. Neither of these quarterbacks is living up to their once-lofty expectations, but there are still talented players on both sides. With the close projected totals, could we get a surprisingly exciting game? Stranger things have happened.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence’s struggles are making headlines, but he hasn’t played that badly to start the season. C.J. Stroud has certainly been worse. With that said, they are both mid-range QB2s this week, although I definitely prefer T-Law.
Running Backs
The Texans took a step in the right direction in Week 2 by making Dameon Pierce a healthy scratch and giving Woody Marks more snaps than Dare Ogunbowale. The fourth-round rookie is this backfield’s only hope of having any kind of juice … but his role is still too small for him to be playable as of yet. The majority of touches will go to Nick Chubb, who is an RB3 we are hoping falls in the end zone. For the Jaguars, Travis Etienne is the clear RB1 and a solid fantasy RB2 … although Bhayshul Tuten is nipping at his heels and has deep-league flex appeal of his own.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins is still a stud and a must-start WR1 every week. After him, the most interesting Texans receiver is Christian Kirk, who should be making his Houston debut this week. Until we see his role, however, Kirk is nothing but a deep PPR flex option. For the Jaguars, Brian Thomas Jr. is still a must-start coming off a bad (and frankly, weird) performance in Week 2. He has seen elite usage so far and might see even more this week in a squeaky wheel situation. Travis Hunter has also seen better usage than his production would indicate, so he’s still a valid flex play. However, he is seeing fewer snaps than (and has been outproduced by) Dyami Brown, who is a streaming flex option in his own right.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz and Brenton Strange are both in the realm of “TEs who run a solid amount of routes but aren’t dynamic playmakers or featured parts of their offenses.” That makes them both TE2s.
DFS Thoughts:
Travis Etienne, after having a great start to the season, is a little bit forgotten again. He could be in for a nice week. Brian Thomas Jr., one of these weeks, is going to have a monster game that we’ve all been waiting for. I hope it’s not this week because I really don’t want to be on him, even though we’ve been on Lawrence and Brian Thomas the last couple of weeks. If you want to go there and do a little stack though, you can definitely see Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., and Nico Collins on the other side, especially with Christian Kirk back to open things up a little bit more. You could see this being a game that actually opens up and ends up as the game you needed to be on this week.
Pick’em Winner: Jaguars
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Broncos 21.75, Chargers 24.25
Ted’s Preview:
The Chargers are letting Justin Herbert cook, with easily the highest pass rate over expected in the league. And it’s working, as they beat the Chiefs in Week 1 and dismantled the Raiders last Monday. Meanwhile, Sean Payton is up to his old tricks in terms of usage, and Bo Nix seems to be hitting a sophomore slump.
Quarterbacks
I’m a little scared of this LA defense, but Bo Nix’s mobility still makes him a borderline QB1. Justin Herbert, on the other hand, is a more solid QB1, even against a tough Denver defense, given the way the Chargers have been running their offense.
Running Backs
I’m also a little worried about this matchup for J.K. Dobbins. His usage is good, but not great, which means a tough game script could pose issues. He’s a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3. RJ Harvey hasn’t seen his role grow enough to be more than a flex option. For the Chargers, the big question is whether Najee Harris’ role will continue to grow at the expense of Omarion Hampton. Hampton is still the better option, but he’s just an RB3 to Harris’ flex.
Wide Receivers
Last week, Troy Franklin was the Broncos’ clear WR1, in everything from routes to targets to production. Courtland Sutton played a far smaller role than usual, the first time he has really been affected by Sean Payton’s constant shifts in usage. Sutton is still the top option for this week, but he deserves a downgrade to the questionable WR3 range. Franklin is a boom/bust flex play. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ pass-heavy approach and lack of other options have allowed them to sustain three viable fantasy WRs through two weeks. Ladd McConkey is a WR2, while Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen are both appealing flex options.
Tight Ends
With Evan Engram out, neither of these teams has a fantasy-relevant tight end … and that was true even before, if we’re being honest with ourselves.
DFS Thoughts:
I probably won’t be going here, but the Chargers and Broncos give us a little mini-stack with Ladd McConkey and Troy Franklin. We were on Troy Franklin as a blueprint player, and he was Johnny Danger’s pick of the year, and now he is a waiver-wire darling for everyone who didn’t get him in drafts.
Pick’em Winner: Chargers
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Saints 17.0, Seahawks 24.5
Ted’s Preview:
This game has the second-largest spread of the week. I honestly think that’s a little harsh on the Saints, who haven’t looked that bad. It’s not like this Seahawks team is a world-beater, although Sam Darnold has been decent and their defense seems excellent. At the very least, Kellen Moore’s team has been playing fast, which should mean plenty of opportunities for both of these teams.
Quarterbacks
Although I do believe Spencer Rattler and the Saints haven’t looked too terrible, that’s only relative to expectations. He’s still arguably the worst fantasy option among starting QBs, even in a week with multiple backups playing. In a good matchup, Sam Darnold is a solid QB2.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara isn’t quite his vintage self, but he’s still seeing excellent usage. It’s hard to argue with him as a high-end RB2. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet was surprisingly listed as doubtful today with a foot injury. That means the Seahawks’ backfield will be the Kenneth Walker III show. He is arguably an RB1 set for bell cow usage in a great matchup.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave’s usage has been better than his production, but that is starting to become a theme of his career. He’s still a high-end WR3, although Seattle’s defense is a tough matchup for receivers in particular. That matchup also affects Rashid Shaheed, who is a boom/bust flex option. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has seen truly absurd usage for Seattle so far, with a 41% target share and a 61% air yards share. He’s a WR1. Cooper Kupp also rebounded last week after a rough Seahawks debut; he’s a flex option.
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson’s usage has been excellent across the board. With the state of the position, he should be treated as a no-doubt TE1. The Seahawks don’t have a viable fantasy TE.
DFS Thoughts:
Seattle has shown itself pretty well this year and are holding teams on the defensive side pretty well. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is always in play. You could go with a Juwan Johnson on the other side who’s getting a lot of volume. Could go with a Rashid Shaheed and hope to get some long plays in. He’s probably still going overlooked because of the Saints situation with Spencer Rattler at quarterback. Good if we are trying to save some money. I don’t know what Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be priced. But he’s somebody we can come back on the other side with to make a nice mini-stack and probably achieve enough price savings to allow us to go with those heavier 3RB lineups.
I will probably mostly stay away from this game. We’ve got a lot of other options this week that are solid to pick from. Eventually Spencer Rattler might look like Spencer Rattler. This could be the week where there aren’t any obvious defensive options. With the top being the Packers and the Falcons, you could go down to this game.
Pick’em Winner: Seahawks
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bears 24.25, Cowboys 25.75
Ted’s Preview:
This is one of the games of the week, with a massive 50-point total. Neither of these teams has been able to stop anyone on the defensive side, and they have both put up points offensively. I’m a little skeptical of Caleb Williams’ ability to make good on his half of the bargain, but this has all the makings of a fantasy explosion.
Quarterbacks
I may be skeptical, but Caleb Williams is undeniably a QB1 in this spot; he just projects too well to ignore. The same goes for Dak Prescott.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift is questionable with a quad injury. If he plays, he’s an RB2 option. If he doesn’t, Kyle Monangai becomes a potential streaming RB3. For the Cowboys, it’s all about Javonte Williams, who has easily outperformed expectations through two weeks. He should keep rolling as an RB2 against Chicago.
Wide Receivers
Rome Odunze has officially overtaken DJ Moore as the Bears’ WR1. But Moore still has a solid role, and that’s more than enough in this environment. The sophomore is a WR2, while the veteran is a high-end WR3. For the Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb is a no-brainer start, and George Pickens should also be in lineups. His 17% target share is a little underwhelming, but this matchup is juicy enough to look past it and call him a borderline WR2.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet is still holding off Colston Loveland as the Bears’ lead TE; neither of them is worth playing. Jake Ferguson is normally another classic TE2, but he gets a bump to TE1 territory in this hopefully high-octane environment.
DFS Thoughts:
Going back to the Bears and Cowboys game, I like when we find a situation where one player is getting all the attention, then you’ve got this forgotten guy who has won DFS tournaments in the past, enter DJ Moore, who can still win DFS tournaments. This sets up as a nice game for him, and all the attention is on Rome Odunze right now. So it’s a chance to get a tournament winner at lower ownership than he probably should be. Now, deservedly so, since he hasn’t looked great with Caleb Williams this year, but we’re not playing for what is likely to happen, we’re playing for what could happen.
This sets up to be more of a CeeDee Lamb game than a George Pickens game. I may stay away from it, coming off of all the attention with the Cowboys and Giants game last week. I usually like to build an overstack of a really popular game like this and then build a second lineup that completely fades it.
Pick’em Winner: Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Cardinals 21.25, 49ers 24.25
Ted’s Preview:
It looked for a second as though Brock Purdy might be back for this one, but instead, we are getting another helping of Mac Jones. Jones was solid enough last week, although the Cardinals’ defense might provide at least slightly more resistance than New Orleans did. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 2-0, but they didn’t look hugely convincing against two of the worst teams in the league. This will be an interesting test for Kyler Murray and Co.
Quarterbacks
Watching Kyler Murray play is often frustrating, but his mobility makes him a solid back-half QB1. With solid weapons in his huddle and Kyle Shanahan in his ear, Mac Jones is a QB2.
Running Backs
It’s not a massive shift, but James Conner is bleeding work to Trey Benson. His efficiency has also been less stellar than usual to start the season. He’s a backend RB2 in my eyes, while Benson is only a desperation flex option. Christian McCaffrey is a must-start as long as he is healthy (please stay healthy).
Wide Receivers
Two weeks into his sophomore season, Marvin Harrison Jr. seems like the same boom-or-bust WR3 he was as a rookie. That’s not terrible, but it is disappointing. Michael Wilson is on the field alongside Harrison enough to be a flex play in particularly deep leagues. For the 49ers, I’m still team Jauan Jennings over Ricky Pearsall. But the difference isn’t massive – they are both WR3 options.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride is a stud and a weekly must-start. Jake Tonges saw just enough usage with George Kittle out in Week 2 that he’s worth mentioning … but not worth starting.
DFS Thoughts:
I never really like trusting Arizona, but Marvin Harrison Jr. could be in for a lot of targets while they’re playing catch up against San Francisco this week. CMC is in play as always, he was chalk last week and did fine but didn’t really crush it, so he could go a little under owned this week.
Pick’em Winner: 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Giants
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Chiefs 25.5, Giants 19.5
Ted’s Preview:
This is a matchup between a high-flying offense featuring a gun-slinger quarterback … and the Kansas City Chiefs. Okay, that’s probably giving the Giants a bit too much credit, especially now that they no longer get to face the Cowboys’ defense. But the Chiefs have continued their ugly offense from last year, and it’s even less impressive when they aren’t winning.
Quarterbacks
The one bright side of the Chiefs’ offensive struggles is that Patrick Mahomes is feeling the need to do it all himself, with over 57 rushing yards and a TD on the ground in each of his first two games. He’s a solid QB1 against a Giants defense that was just shredded by Dak Prescott. To his credit, Russell Wilson did cook last week. But he’s likely to find tougher sledding against the Chiefs’ defense; he’s a QB2.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are the dual leaders of one of the ugliest backfields in the NFL. Pacheco sees slightly more work, but Hunt has played the majority of snaps near the goal line. With that in mind, they are both uninspiring flex options. Cam Skattebo emerged as the Giants’ RB1 last week. That makes Tyrone Tracy Jr. unplayable outside of desperate flex situations. However, Skattebo is just a flex play himself, still in a committee and facing a great Chiefs run defense.
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown still led KC’s receivers in targets in Week 2, but five looks was nothing like the 16 he saw in Week 1. Behind him, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton were also involved. Brown is a decent flex play, while the other two are dart throw options. (This is all assuming Xavier Worthy doesn’t play, although he is technically listed as questionable.) For the Giants, Malik Nabers is still a locked-in WR1. Wan’Dale Robinson proved last week that he is not just a low-ADOT merchant. That probably won’t last, but adding upside makes him a more exciting flex option than he was a week ago.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce is a shadow of his former self, but he’s still a solid TE1 while the Chiefs’ top two receivers are out. Theo Johnson saw five targets last week, elevating himself to the “maybe he falls in the end zone” tier of tight ends.
DFS Thoughts: No DFS notes – save for Showdown later.
Pick’em Winner: Chiefs
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Lions 24.25, Ravens 28.75
Ted’s Preview:
This should be an absolute banger of a Monday Night Football game. The Ravens have scored at least 40 points in both of their games so far this season, while the Lions just proved they don’t need Ben Johnson by dropping 52 on the Bears. With Detroit’s home/road splits, it would be nicer if they were in the dome, sweet dome. But this is a smash fantasy spot regardless.
Quarterbacks
At this point, I’m ranking Lamar Jackson as the QB1 every week until he gives me a reason not to. I am a little hesitant of jumping right back on the Jared Goff train, especially on the road against a theoretically tough defense. But, after last week, it’s impossible to deny his ceiling, so he’s a borderline QB1.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry had the worst game of his Baltimore career last week. He’s still an obvious RB1 this week. So is Jahmyr Gibbs, who would benefit if the Lions end up playing from behind as projected. On the flipside, I’m a little suspicious of David Montgomery against a tougher opponent. It’s just so hard to see how he has a great fantasy outing without hitting the end zone. Of course, he’s always very liable to score, so he’s still a solid RB3.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers seems to be emerging as the true alpha in Baltimore’s passing offense, with a 40% target share through two weeks. He’s a must-start WR1 as long as this continues. After him, Rashod Bateman is still the second-best Ravens WR, even if he is the only one who hasn’t scored a touchdown. Guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Tylan Wallace, and Devontez Walker certainly could get lucky again thanks to playing alongside Lamar in a high-scoring environment, but Hopkins leads that trio with just a 33% route participation rate. I’d avoid them all. For the Lions, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a no-doubt WR1, Jameson Williams is a boom/bust WR3, and Isaac TeSlaa is still not running enough routes to be at all playable (yet?).
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews has reached the point where “he is a top red zone target in an elite offense” isn’t going to cut it to make him a TE1 anymore. He’s not unplayable, but he’s closer to the TD-dependent dart-throw guys than to the true TE1s. Sam LaPorta, on the other hand, is still on the right side of that line as a middling TE1.
DFS Thoughts: No DFS notes – save for Showdown later.
Pick’em Winner: Ravens
Lineup Building & Strategy Wrap-Up
What I Wanted Coming In
I wanted to go heavy with running backs. I wanted to go Bijan, Christian McCaffrey. Probably find a third solid running back for the flex. I would like to go to Tyler Warren at tight end. It’s going to be a salary challenge. I don’t know if I can get to Stafford, Puka, and Adams. I’ll have to play around with that a little bit more. I do like Lamb, but he’ll be expensive and I don’t think this is a monster Lamb game. I think it’s going to be a little bit of a lower-scoring game environment.
When we have a week where we have one clear top game environment, this week being the Cowboys and the Bears, and everything else, what I like to do is make at least two lineups. One focused on that game environment with an overstack, and then one that completely fades that game environment.
Ownership & Pricing Review
A quick reminder on why we’re thinking in terms of multipliers. On FanDuel, tournaments typically require about 3x your salary to have a shot at first place. Since the salary cap is $60k, that means you’re aiming for around 180 fantasy points. On DraftKings, the bar is higher – you generally need about 4 to 5x your salary, with the sweet spot being around 4.5x, to be truly competitive for first.
So when comparing players at different price points, you can use that same multiplier to judge the gap. On FanDuel, ask: is the more expensive player likely to score at least 3x the difference in salary more than the cheaper option? On DraftKings, adjust that to about 4.5x the salary gap.
FanDuel QB Ownership Reactions
On FanDuel, quarterback ownership is lining up pretty much as expected. The field is targeting the Cowboys/Bears game, with Caleb Williams and Dak Prescott drawing the heaviest ownership. Between the two, I much prefer Dak at these prices, especially since the field is leaning a little more toward Caleb.
Somewhat surprisingly, Jalen Hurts is showing a bit of ownership. I thought he’d be much more under the radar given Philly’s recent low-scoring games. We’ll see how that ties into the ownership on Saquon and A.J. Brown, but quarterback ownership generally doesn’t hurt you much even at 20%. I usually lean toward just playing the best QB play and finding differentiation elsewhere – unless I really love someone at 1–4% compared to a chalkier 15–20% option.
Outside of Dak, Caleb, and Hurts, ownership falls off quickly. Matthew Stafford is under 5%. Jordan Love is all the way down near 0%, despite being in a likely pass-heavy game environment. That’s a great leverage spot if I’m building a lineup purely around ownership – even something like Love + Dontayvion Wicks, or even going full off-the-board with Love + Wicks + Packers DEF (who I expect will be the chalk defense of the week).
At the very bottom, Marcus Mariota is currently near 0%. I expect that to rise once we get weekend confirmation that Jayden Daniels isn’t playing, but he still projects as a low-owned salary saver with rushing upside.
FanDuel RB Ownership Reactions
At running back on FanDuel, ownership is shaking out as expected – Jordan Mason is drawing extremely heavy ownership, between 30–40%. That’s too much for me. I don’t want to call it an “easy fade,” but at that level, I’ll definitely be fading Mason.
We’ve already talked about ways to gain leverage here – by pivoting to players in stronger game environments who we project to generally score more. If Mason smashes and puts up a 27-point game (5x his salary), so be it. I’ll take that loss, because more often than not, he won’t.
The pricing example we used earlier applies here: Mason at $5,800 versus Jacorey McCroskey-Merritt at $5,500. Merritt won his job outright, not because of an injury in front of him, and with Austin Ekeler out, he has just as good a chance at production as Mason. Best of all, Merritt will be around 5% owned compared to Mason’s 30–40%. That’s the perfect pivot.
Bring-back options include Brock Bowers – expensive, questionable tag could suppress ownership. Tre Tucker – deep ball dart. Dont’e Thornton – another viable bring-back.
Tyler Allgeier: coming in at rock-bottom ownership (~0%). Bijan Robinson ~20% owned. Of course Bijan outscores Allgeier, but in terms of 3x salary outcomes: Bijan needs ~30 points, Allgeier needs ~15 points. Both equally likely to reach their respective marks if we think the Falcons control throughout. Scenario: Falcons blow out Panthers – Allgeier racks up late work. If playing Allgeier definitely pair with Falcons DEF.
Because Jalen Hurts was, in my opinion, surprisingly high-owned, Saquon is a nice leverage against that. If Saquon is doing really well, Jalen Hurts is not doing as well. Javonte Williams: capable of cheap TDs, ~10% owned. Preference is Dak + Lamb side of the game, but Javonte offers leverage if you want to pivot off Dak chalk. Kyren Williams: sneaky play, down near 1% ownership in the Rams/Eagles game.
FanDuel WR Ownership Reactions
At wide receiver on FanDuel, we’re seeing CeeDee Lamb and Rome Odunze expected near the top of ownership. Puka Nacua is also surprisingly high, as is A.J. Brown. Davante Adams is sitting around 10%.
This sets up a great situation: Puka and Adams are both top-10 in WR ownership, but Matthew Stafford is way down the QB list at just 1–2% owned. That’s a recipe for an overstack. Some people will play Puka solo. Others will play Adams solo. But almost nobody will pair them through Stafford.
Given Hurts’ relatively high ownership, one way to differentiate is to simply lead with the Rams: Stafford + Nacua + Adams. At that point, it doesn’t even matter whether you come back with A.J. Brown or Saquon Barkley. Just by making Stafford the starting point, you’ve created the unique build you need.
One surprise: Jakobi Meyers is showing ownership around the same level as Rome Odunze, even though they’re only $200 apart in salary. With Bears/Cowboys projected as the much stronger fantasy environment, that doesn’t quite make sense to me.
Mike Evans is also landing inside the top 5–10 WRs in ownership, but he should see a lot of shadow coverage – I don’t love that spot.
I do like Jaxon Smith-Njigba as part of a mini-stack. And circling back to what we talked about earlier: Odunze ~20% ownership vs DJ Moore ~10%. They’re priced similarly, but I think this game sets up better for Moore. That ownership gap gives us a nice way to pivot.
Wide receiver is usually where we find the biggest leverage opportunities, so let’s dig down the list. George Pickens is sitting at around 5% owned versus CeeDee Lamb at around 20%. I do think it’s more of a Lamb game, not a Pickens game, but if you just want the ownership leverage, Pickens makes sense. Ja’Marr Chase is only around 4% owned due to his price and the backup QB situation, but with Browning expected to get the ball out quickly, Chase should still see volume. If you’re playing Jordan Mason, pairing him with Chase reduces your effective ownership on Mason. The challenge is that it’s still tough for Chase to return 3x on a nearly $10k salary with a backup QB.
DeVonta Smith follows the same story as Pickens – if you don’t want to go to AJB chalk, Smith is the natural pivot. Michael Pittman is sitting at just 1–2% owned, and with Tyler Warren getting all the buzz (though he’s a little banged up), Pittman could slide into more work. Kayshon Boutte is viable if you want to play the Pats/Steelers game, though I probably won’t. Cedric Tillman is basically at 0% owned, and the Packers will have to throw with Tillman looking like their WR1 – that’s a tremendous ownership pivot.
Dontayvion Wicks is also sitting at around 0%. Both teams in this Packers/Browns game will need to pass, and Wicks plus Tillman (with or without their QBs) make for a sneaky stack. Matthew Golden is right there in the same game as well. A Jordan Love + Wicks + Golden + Tillman stack could literally win someone a million dollars this week. Might as well be one of us. Tre Tucker makes sense if Jakobi Meyers is high-owned, betting on a long TD from Tucker as a great pivot.
FanDuel TE Ownership Reactions
At tight end on FanDuel, ownership is concentrated at the top:
Trey McBride: around 20% as the last man standing in Arizona’s passing game.
Tyler Warren: no longer sneaking up on anyone – also around 20%.
Jake Ferguson: also ~20%. His salary makes him attractive, and he fits naturally as the third piece in a Dak + Lamb + Ferguson stack. If you’re going this route, I strongly prefer an overstack of the game.
From there, we can pivot:
Brock Bowers: under 10%, and that’s too low if he’s healthy. Great leverage spot.
Further down: Harold Fannin, David Njoku (someone has to catch passes on the Packers’ opponent side), Brenton Strange (getting usage in Jacksonville).
Luke Musgrave: near 0% if Tucker Kraft is out, though I expect that to rise slightly by lock. Still, he’s a great pairing with Jordan Love for ownership leverage.
FanDuel Defense Ownership
At defense, we’re seeing Cleveland carry heavy ownership. To me, this shows that – just like last week – nothing really stands out at the position. Players are punting it, going all the way down to the cheapest viable defense and hoping for turnovers.
Cleveland does have a strong run defense, and the Packers want to run their offense through Josh Jacobs – but they don’t need to. Even at min price, I think the Browns are a wasted pick.
The other defense drawing ownership is Atlanta, which makes sense. If they’re chalky, the cleanest way to play them is paired with Tyler Allgeier, which lowers your effective ownership.
Beyond that, nothing else jumps out. I still like San Francisco, mainly because I don’t totally trust Kyler Murray. I’ve gone there the last couple weeks and been underwhelmed, and while their blitzing could just lead to more Murray scrambles, at near-zero ownership, they still make sense as a defense that could generate turnovers.
DraftKings Ownership Analysis
This is a good point to show how to use the player grids in the Daily Leagues menu – here’s the DraftKings Player Grid for this week.
On DraftKings, for example, Marcus Mariota is showing extremely high projected ownership. I think that number’s inflated – he’ll probably cap out around 30%, maybe touch 40%, but most likely land closer to 30%. Right below him, Dak Prescott is at 27%. Both Mariota and Dak carry the same tourney rating of 27.
In tournaments, we want players who are low-owned but with similar upside. That’s how you create leverage. When our guys hit, the field misses, and we leapfrog the board.
If you sort the grid by the tourney rating header, you’ll see some of the names we’ve been talking about – and a few we haven’t. Players like Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz, even Bryce Young – all sitting at near-zero ownership but in game situations not that different from the chalk.
You could absolutely make a case for a lineup like: Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan + Bijan Robinson. If the Panthers keep up in that game, you’re suddenly way out ahead of all the Mariota/Dak chalk.
We also talked about Joe Flacco as a possible “Flacco game.” This could be that week, since both teams project to throw a lot. There isn’t much leverage on the Packers’ side of the game, but Flacco is cheaper than Jordan Love, which is why he gets the nod in tourney rating. They’re coming in at similar ownership, but price tilts it toward Flacco.
Then you have a guy like Daniel Jones – clearly the best quarterback in the history of football (for the last two weeks). And yet, because of other game environments, he’s basically being forgotten this week. He’s down around 2% ownership, despite having real ceiling in his vast two-game span of excellence this season.
This is exactly how to use the player grids + ownership to build lineups that can take down tournaments. We’re not trying to build a lineup that just “does good.” We want a lineup that, when it does great, it does so with very little attention – and therefore is unique enough to win first place.
DraftKings RB Ownership
On DraftKings at RB, ownership is lining up at the top with Christian McCaffrey. Surprisingly, Javonte Williams is also way up there – but it’s not hard to imagine him scoring a couple cheap TDs in the highest-projected game of the week. At just $6,100, he actually makes a pretty nice target, and I feel a lot better about him than D’Andre Swift ($5,600), who’s also drawing high ownership.
Bijan Robinson is coming in a bit lower than the very top guys, but still chalky. Jordan Mason rounds out the top five – still highly owned, but not quite the extreme chalk he is on FanDuel.
Similar story here with Saquon Barkley: you can use him to target the Eagles game differently and gain leverage. Chase Brown is under 10% owned, though I don’t love targeting either RB in those spots since both defenses are going to sell out to stop the run and make the QBs beat them. Still, there is ownership leverage to be had.
Jacorey McCroskey-Merritt (~5% ownership) makes for a great pivot away from Mason chalk. And once again, Tyler Allgeier is sitting near 1% ownership, offering tournament leverage.
This goes back to my earlier point about a running back that’s $2,000 more. For example, on FanDuel, Mason is $5,800, and Chase Brown is $7,800. Now, in that scenario, I think Chase Brown and Jordan Mason have relatively equal outcomes in that game, so I would rather play Jordan Mason. But if I go up to Jonathan Taylor at $8,500, that’s a little more than $2,500 more, so I’m basically saying, do I think Jonathan Taylor can get 7.5 points more than Jordan Mason? I definitely think he can. So it’s a great opportunity to fade a chalk running back, and go with a stud in a better game environment and situation.
We can contrast this on DraftKings with Luke Musgrave, who may be filling in for Tucker Kraft. If that is indeed the case, then Musgrave is coming in still priced around backups, where Jordan Mason is priced in the range of other starters. He’s at the low end, but Musgrave is a bigger relative value at the tight end position than Mason is at the running back position. And Musgrave will probably come in with much lower ownership.
The same logic applies with Musgrave versus somebody who is, say, $2,000 more expensive than them. If that more expensive player just scores on DraftKings 8 more points than Musgrave, then the more expensive player is still worth it. But in the TE position, where it’s harder to find those performance gaps, the cheaper TE in a starting role is often worth it.
DraftKings WR Ownership
At wide receiver on DraftKings, we’ve got the usual suspects: CeeDee Lamb and Rome Odunze at the top. DJ Moore is also high-owned here, which makes him less sneaky than on FanDuel – I’d much rather use him there.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also up, and I don’t mind him if you pair with someone from the New Orleans side like Juwan Johnson or Rashid Shaheed, hoping that game environment takes off. Jauan Jennings cut into some of Pearsall’s work last week, and he’s picking up ownership now at a cheap price.
Interestingly, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are a little lower here compared to FanDuel. On DK, I’d lean toward the Stafford + Puka + Adams stack. I still want at least one Mariota lineup, but the Dak stack feels stronger for FanDuel, while Stafford stacks fit DraftKings better.
We talked about Carson Wentz as a great tournament target based on tourney rating. With Justin Jefferson coming in at under 10% ownership, this is a strong spot. Wentz isn’t a downgrade from J.J. McCarthy – he might even be an upgrade. That makes this a perfect leverage play, especially with so much attention on Jordan Mason.
Same concept as Wentz and Jefferson – Bryce Young was actually the top tournament rating on our player grid, and you’ve got Tetairoa McMillan down around 5% ownership. That’s a really nice pairing. If I were playing this purely from a game-theory standpoint – purely maximizing my chance to win first place – I’d be building some Carson Wentz + Justin Jefferson lineups, and some Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan lineups, with Bijan Robinson coming back on the other side.
We also talked about Daniel Jones as rating very high in tournaments. Meanwhile, Michael Pittman is sitting at ~5% ownership while Tyler Warren is near the top of TE ownership and carrying a minor injury. That sets up perfectly for a Daniel Jones + Michael Pittman combo as another leverage stack.
We’re showing A.J. Brown down around 5% ownership, but I don’t expect that to hold. Based on what we saw on FanDuel, I think his ownership will climb as we get closer to Sunday. My initial thought was that he and the Eagles/Rams game would be a little under the radar, but ownership may end up higher than expected.
The Green Bay WRs remain very low-owned and Cedric Tillman on the other side. Same with Sterling Shepard, Kayshon Boutte, and Tre Tucker. Even Alec Pierce deserves mention – he benefits from the occasional deep ball, and has shown the ability to pop a score here and there.
We also talked about Jordan Whittington in the Rams game. He’s basically min-priced and at near-zero ownership. If you want to get a little different and save some money, you could pivot a Stafford stack to Stafford + Adams + Whittington instead of Stafford + Adams + Puka. Or even use Whittington alone as a salary saver.
DraftKings TE Ownership
At tight end on DraftKings, it looks a lot like FanDuel. With no truly elite options, the top guys naturally draw ownership, and you really have to dig to find a difference-maker at low ownership.
It only took two weeks for people to bail on the Kyle Pitts breakout narrative, but in a game where everyone expects Bijan to dominate, you could flip the script. A Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan + Kyle Pitts lineup would be unique, and it makes sense if you’re chasing differentiation.
David Njoku is still sitting at very low ownership despite having touchdown upside in Cleveland. Same story with Brenton Strange.
Mike Gesicki is also worth a mention in Cincinnati. We’ve seen Drew Sample get a little work, but Gesicki has too – and sometimes with a backup QB, you’ll see them lean on players they’ve spent more practice time with. Gesicki could pop here, especially if you’re running a mini with Justin Jefferson or even Jordan Mason.
And finally, we talked about Luke Musgrave: way down the list at near-zero ownership, dirt cheap, and dependent on Tucker Kraft’s status. If Kraft is out, Musgrave is a real value punt.
DraftKings Defense Ownership
On DraftKings defense, it looks like a similar trend as FanDuel – people are generally punting the position.
Near the top, you’ve got Cincinnati, which makes some sense this week. Seattle is also up there against New Orleans, and while I get it, the Saints are generally playing better than people expect. Dallas is also near the top.
Further down, you’ll find Atlanta and Green Bay. That’s not surprising – DK pricing is usually a little tighter, and players don’t want to pay all the way up at defense as much.
Where I Landed
I want to go Stafford + Puka + Adams + Brown on DK, followed by a Packers over stack in my secondary lineup.
On FD, I’ll go with Dak + Lamb + Moore and lean on the cheaper RBs. I may build a secondary lineup with that Young + Tet + Bijan/Pitts lineup.
Yahoo build will be very similar to FanDuel as I lean on the Dak stack and fill out my lineup with value plays.