NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 17
Welcome to Week 17’s DFS preview! Thanks to the multitude of games on weird days this week, we have just an eight-game slate despite having zero teams on bye. What’s more, the league unsurprisingly has scheduled most of the premier teams (aka the best offenses) for the island games, leaving the Sunday slate as a particularly ugly one. Of the 16 teams in action, more than half have a total below 20 points — yuck. With that said, there are still some interesting spots to attack. Let’s get right into it!
Game Overviews
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Totals: Titans 19.5, Jaguars 19.5
The last time these two teams met, the Jaguars didn’t score a point until the fourth quarter … and won easily, 10-6. I do think there is a chance this game goes the other way, especially because Mason Rudolph is at least slightly more competent than Will Levis. But if these totals are anything to go by, we may be in for another low-scoring affair that we want to avoid if possible.
Quarterbacks
I’m honestly into Mason Rudolph as a value play on DraftKings. He’s dirt cheap, the Jaguars’ pass defense is dreadful, and his results this season haven’t even been that bad. He might not have much of a ceiling, but he seems viable as a pure points-per-dollar value play. On the other side, I’m not at all interested in Mac Jones. Even just comparing him directly to Levis, he has a worse matchup, worse results, and higher salaries.
Running Backs
Once again, Tony Pollard has not practiced at all while dealing with an ankle injury. Each of the last two weeks he has suited up anyway but played reduced roles and/or re-injured himself before the end of the game. Both times, Tyjae Spears has taken advantage with big days. If Pollard is out, Tyjae is a great option against the Jaguars’ woeful defense. If Pollard is in, I lean toward avoiding both of these backs — in theory, this is a great spot for Pollard, but his lack of usage and recurring injuries make him very risky. With that said, he’s cheap enough on Yahoo that he might be worth the risk. For the Jaguars, it’s hard to like either Tank Bigsby or Travis Etienne, who are in a fairly even committee on one of the league’s worst offenses. If I had to pick, I’d lean toward Bigsby — he’s been more explosive, and this game script is more likely to favor him. But Etienne is more likely to rack up receptions, so he’s not entirely unplayable either.
Wide Receivers
Both of these teams only really have one wide receiver to consider, and those players are Calvin Ridley and Brian Thomas Jr. Thankfully, those two guys are two of my favorite mid-range receivers on this slate. Ridley is boom-or-bust, but we have to imagine that he is tilted toward the boom against this Jaguars defense. BTJ, meanwhile, has provided huge ceilings and a solid floor thanks to elite target volume over the last few weeks. Both of these guys are very solid plays.
Tight Ends
I’m a little suspicious of Chigoziem Okonkwo at mid-range prices and decently high projected rostership. On the bright side, he is coming off back-to-back elite target games, and last week he jumped all the way to an 81% route participation rate, way above his season average. On the not-so-bright side, that was just one week — more commonly, we’ve seen him as just a part-time player in this offense. He’s playable, but risky given his high rostership. Brenton Strange let us all down last week as he fumbled and then was essentially benched for the rest of the game. Normally, these fumble-related benchings don’t last into the next week, but he’s not exactly a smash play that I’m willing to take that risk for.
Defenses
The Titans’ defense is worth considering, especially at the bare minimum price on Yahoo. The Jaguars’ defense is also at the Yahoo minimum, and they project to be widely rostered on all three sites. However, I lean toward fading them — they are one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Titans with Rudolph (3.2% turnover-worthy-play rate, 3.6% sack rate) are a much less favorable opponent than they were with Levis (4.4% turnover-worthy-play rate, 12.4% sack rate).
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Totals: Panthers 19.5, Buccaneers 28.5
On a slate with so many lousy games, this actually stands out as a potentially exciting one. Obviously, the Buccaneers are projected to have a big day, and I think the Panthers also have a chance to make some noise against Tampa’s beatable defense. There are intriguing plays up and down this matchup.
Quarterbacks
With Jalen Hurts out, Baker Mayfield is the second most expensive quarterback on this slate. And that distinction is deserved given the great matchup and how productive he has been all season. Baker is certainly playable, but he does project to be widely rostered, so keep that in mind. On the other hand, Bryce Young hardly projects to be rostered, which makes him a bit intriguing given his recent improvements and the ideal matchup. He probably doesn’t have an elite ceiling, but that might not be necessary given the lack of elite options on this slate.
Running Backs
Bucky Irving absolutely dominated the Panthers a few weeks ago, and now he may get an increased workload due to Rachaad White’s game-losing fumble last week. Irving projects to be widely rostered, but I certainly have nothing against simply slamming him in anyway. However, White is also a bit intriguing at lower salaries (especially on DK). He is still the preferred receiver out of these two backs, and there should be points to go around this week for Tampa Bay. On the Panthers’ side, Chuba Hubbard is also intriguing. He has been seeing absolutely elite workloads since Jonathon Brooks went down and isn’t priced among the top-tier running backs. As long as Carolina can move the ball, he should be a huge part of it.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans is chasing another 1,000-yard season, and he’s also the best player on this Tampa Bay offense with a huge total. He’s definitely risky priced as the WR3 on all sites, but his ceiling could be week-winning on a slate where not many players have huge realistic outcomes. Jalen McMillan has been hot and is also worth considering, but he does project to be very widely rostered (especially on DK, where he is cheapest). It does feel slightly like chasing points with his four TDs in the last three games, but he’s still a totally viable play. On the Panthers’ side, there are multiple ways to attack this atrocious Buccaneers’ pass defense. Adam Thielen has been very solid since his return from injury, although his price is a bit high for my liking. Jalen Coker is also interesting as a value play, although there is some worry that he will be squeezed out with Xavier Legette likely returning this week. For that matter, although we haven’t seen him have a big game yet, this is an interesting spot for Legette as a pivot off of the popular Thielen and Coker. If Legette is out, David Moore also becomes a value option.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton is out, and I like Payne Durham as a punt tight end. He saw a 76% route share and a 16% target share last week, and the Panthers’ defense has struggled against TEs all season. Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble are unfortunately still locked in a 50/50 (or 60/40) committee, making them both unusable.
Defenses
I don’t really want to pay up for a bad Buccaneers’ defense against the improved Carolina offense. I’m also not going to chase the value of a terrible Panthers’ defense against a good Tampa offense.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
Projected Totals: Colts 23.5, Giants 15.5
The big question with this game is whether Anthony Richardson (back/foot) will play. Last week, the Colts rolled out an absolutely medieval run-at-all-costs offense to mitigate his lack of accuracy … and it worked. But now the sophomore QB hasn’t practiced all week, so we may be back to a more traditional offense with Joe Flacco. Meanwhile, the Giants are just limping along to the end of the season with Drew Lock under center.
Quarterbacks
If he plays, Anthony Richardson is definitely worth considering, especially on DK (he is priced higher on Yahoo and especially FD). Yes, he only attempted 11 passes last week, but the amount of rushing volume he is seeing, especially near the end zone, is absurd. If he doesn’t play, Joe Flacco does become interesting as a pay-down option. I have no real interest in playing Drew Lock.
Running Backs
The big beneficiary of the Colts’ absurdly run-heavy approach was Jonathan Taylor, who exploded last week for 218 yards and three touchdowns. On the one hand, that was his best game of the year by a huge margin and he is projected to be massively rostered, so it’s tempting to fade the chances he provides a repeat performance. On the other hand, very few (if any) other backs on this slate project for the same volume as JT. If Richardson is in, he should see all the carries he can handle against the Giants’ terrible defense. If it’s Flacco, he will likely see less ground work but may actually catch a pass or two. That makes him worth considering, at the very least. Tyrone Tracy was limited in practice this week but is expected to play. This is a good matchup for him on paper, the question is whether the Giants’ offense will be able to move the ball at all … I lean toward no.
Wide Receivers
Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Michael Pittman are all absurdly cheap. Even with Richardson in, they’re worth considering. Downs is the best player of the three, Pittman has seen the most consistent targets, and Pierce just needs one play to hit. Still, they all have essentially zero floor coming off a game in which Richardson completed just seven passes. With Flacco in (and therefore increased passing volume), they all become more attractive as value options. For the Giants, the top player to consider is Malik Nabers. His floor is high due to his elite target shares, but it’s hard to see a ceiling outcome on this terrible offense. Wan’Dale Robinson also sees just enough targets and is just cheap enough to also be worth mentioning, but he has even less of a path to ceiling than Nabers does.
Tight Ends
There’s not a single viable tight end in this game.
Defenses
The Giants’ defense is just cheap enough to glance at twice, but they’re so bad it’s hard to trust them. This is especially true given the low-risk approach the Colts’ offense has been taking. The Colts’ defense is very expensive, but if you happen to have the cash, it’s never a bad idea to play a defense against Drew Lock.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Projected Totals: Raiders 19.5, Saints 18.5
The ugliest matchup on a slate full of them; there is very little to like about this one. The Saints without Derek Carr are entirely incapable of moving the ball, and the Raiders aren’t much better. There are hardly any playable options on either side of this one.
Quarterbacks
I don’t have any interest in playing either Aidan O’Connell or Spencer Rattler.
Running Backs
On the one hand, you can make legitimate arguments for both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah. They’ve both been productive in recent weeks. On the other hand, this isn’t exactly an elite offense that we can really trust to support two running backs. Between the two, I prefer Mattison. Abdullah sees more consistent receiving work but is hardly involved on the ground, and this is a matchup where the Raiders will likely at least try to establish some sort of running game. Mattison is an okay value play, but he has a high chance of dropping a complete dud, so proceed with caution. He did absolutely nothing in his first game as the Saints’ starter last week, but this is a much better matchup for Kendre Miller. Looking at the box score, he saw less work than Jordan Mims against the Packers, but he was the lead RB before that game got out of hand (the second quarter). Especially at very low projected rostership, Miller is a high-risk/high-reward value RB option.
Wide Receivers
There’s only one receiver on either of these teams that deserves much consideration, and that is Jakobi Meyers. Even he isn’t that appealing, as he’s unlikely to truly rack up targets in a game where the Raiders won’t be playing from behind for once. He’s playable as a floor option, but don’t expect much ceiling. Since I feel obligated to mention the Saints, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is looking questionable for this one. Kevin Austin is a tiny bit intriguing as a punt play if MVS is out, otherwise I’m 100% avoiding all Saints receivers.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers is the most expensive TE on this slate by a decent margin, which makes sense given he has easily the best projection on the slate. He can definitely be played if you have the cash, although we should remember that he has shown a surprisingly low floor in recent weeks. I want to get excited about Juwan Johnson, but I just can’t with Rattler under center.
Defenses
The Raiders’ defense is the chalk value defense of the week on all three sites, and I am happy to ride that train. New Orleans’ offense is just so bad without Carr. The Saints’ defense is also an option (except on Yahoo), but I lean toward fading them, especially because their offense will be doing them no favors.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Totals: Cowboys 14.5, Eagles 23.5
It looks as though we will get an epic battle between Kenny Pickett and Cooper Rush in this one. I would actually argue that Rush is the better of those two QBs, but the advantage just about everywhere else is firmly in the Eagles’ favor, resulting in the lopsided totals we see here.
Quarterbacks
They’re both cheap, but I’m not interested in either Kenny Pickett or Cooper Rush.
Running Backs
Honestly, Saquon Barkley is the biggest question of the slate. Will he dominate with extra volume (especially near the goal line) without Jalen Hurts, or will the Cowboys’ much-improved defense be able to key in on him? I’m terrified to say this, but I honestly lean toward fading him because of his absolutely massive rostership. He averaged just 1.9 yards per attempt in quarters 2-4 (with Hurts out) against the Commanders last week. With that said, getting Saquon in your lineup is absolutely a valid move on a week where very few players have comparable floors or ceilings. Rico Dowdle has been seeing excellent volume, but it is hard to get too excited about him in a brutal matchup. He’s playable as a mid-range RB, but I probably won’t do it.
Wide Receivers
With what we saw last week, Hurts being out might actually be good for A.J. Brown, whom Pickett peppered with targets. He is my favorite pay-up receiver option on this slate. On the other hand, Pickett is definitely bad for DeVonta Smith. Smith’s price is low enough (especially on DK) that he is still playable, but I lean toward avoiding him. For the Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb has been ruled out for the rest of the season. In theory, this makes Brandin Cooks an intriguing value play. Jalen Tolbert is also very cheap, and I do love Kavontae Turpin. But it’s just so hard to see any of these receivers being a true smash against the Eagles’ elite pass defense while catching passes from Cooper Rush. Cooks is the safest, and the other two are also playable, but proceed with caution.
Tight Ends
He hasn’t been getting it done with Hurts, so I’m not interested in Grant Calcaterra with Pickett. Jake Ferguson theoretically benefits from Lamb being out and is cheap enough to be a value option, but I feel similarly about him as I do about the Cowboys’ receivers.
Defenses
I don’t normally pay up for defenses, but the Eagles’ defense is playable this week, especially at a slightly cheaper price on DraftKings. Meanwhile, the Cowboys‘ defense is cheap enough and has been playing well enough to actually be intriguing against Pickett.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Projected Totals: Jets 17.5, Bills 28.5
Prior to last week’s dud, the Jets’ offense had actually been performing competently for a few weeks. Clearly, Vegas believes more in the dud than the solid weeks. Meanwhile, the Bills’ offense is providing a shocking lack of great fantasy options for a team that seems to score 40 points every week.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen is the most expensive quarterback by a mile on this slate. He can certainly pay off that price; the question is whether the Jets can push him to put on his cape. Even still, his combination of ceiling and floor makes him absolutely playable in all formats if you can find the cash. Aaron Rodgers has been better recently and is padding his stats with red zone TDs, but I still don’t love him in this spot. He’s not cheap enough to be a value and doesn’t have much of a ceiling with this low total.
Running Backs
Are we in for another James Cook week? He is, yet again, expensive for his workload, but he just keeps getting there with long runs and touchdowns. Especially in a matchup where the Bills should lean on the run, he is definitely playable. I hate to say it, but I’m also intrigued by Breece Hall. His salaries are low (especially on DK), the Jets’ coaches are talking about feeding him, and the Bills’ defense is very susceptible to running backs in the passing game.
Wide Receivers
The only Bills receiver I’m considering this week is the only one who posted a route participation rate above 70% last week: Khalil Shakir. The Jets are weakest against slot receivers, and he has been seeing excellent usage in recent weeks. I’m not playing Keon Coleman or Amari Cooper, who both ran fewer routes than Mack Hollins last week. For the Jets, Davante Adams is seeing absurd volume and is in play every week because of it. Garrett Wilson’s price has fallen, and he has a bit of a squeaky wheel narrative … but does Rodgers care? Wilson is definitely playable, but I’m not too into chasing him as his targets keep trending downward.
Tight Ends
Since his return from injury, Dalton Kincaid is in a committee with Dawson Knox — Knox actually ran more routes last week. With that in mind, I’m closer to playing Knox than Kincaid (simply because he is cheaper), but I’m not playing either. Tyler Conklin is also not someone I’m playing.
Defenses
The Jets’ defense is obviously off the table, and I’m not too interested in paying up for the Bills’ defense either.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
Projected Totals: Dolphins 23.5, Browns 16.5
We got our first taste of the 2024 Browns under Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week, and it wasn’t pretty. Meanwhile, the Dolphins keep dink-and-dunking their way along, although roughly half of their offense is questionable for this week. There’s also a chance this is a rain game, which could impact both offenses negatively.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa is playable as a mid-range option, especially stacked with one or more of his teammates. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is not at all playable.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane continues to see elite receiving usage, and last week he finally broke off a big play on the ground. He is definitely in play on all sites, although his Yahoo price is a bit expensive. Jerome Ford exploded last week, but I’m hesitant to play him again. The Browns clearly were planning on using D’Onta Foreman before his goal-line fumble, and this offense with DTR under center is just so, so bad. On the bright side, Thompson-Robinson does love a checkdown, so receiving upside keeps Ford as a playable option.
Wide Receivers
If there was ever a week for Tyreek Hill to have a big game, this might be it, as the Browns are one of few teams still consistently playing one-high looks. Assuming he is not sidelined by his wrist/ankle issues, he is a viable play. Jaylen Waddle also seems to be on track to return from his injury. His salaries are low enough to be tempting with the upside we know he has, but he comes with plenty of risk as well. I’m not playing a single Browns receiver. DTR has completely killed the chances of Jerry Jeudy or Elijah Moore being viable options, especially at prices that still reflect their Jameis Winston-boosted production.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith is the clear second-best tight end on this slate. He just seems to get there every single week, so he is in play even against a Browns defense that is tough on tight ends. David Njoku has been ruled out for Cleveland, meaning Jordan Akins will be the Browns’ primary receiving TE. We know that DTR loves to target his tight ends, so Akins is at least worth considering as a punt option, especially on DK.
Defenses
Any defense against DTR is worth considering, and the Dolphins’ defense is no exception. The Browns’ defense is cheap, but that’s pretty much the only thing they bring to the table, so I won’t be playing them.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Projected Totals: Packers 24.5, Vikings 24.5
In many ways, this is the game of the day. On a slate absolutely starved for offensive competency, we have two genuinely good offenses. However, there are still lots of ways this game could play out. We could get the shootout we all want, but the Packers will need to be forced to throw the ball, and their defense is good enough that that might not happen. Still, there are a million tempting ways to stack and bring-back and double-stack and quintuple-stack this game, especially compared to the lack of options elsewhere on the slate.
Quarterbacks
As I said, the Packers need to be forced to throw the ball. But if they are, this could be a great spot for Jordan Love against a very beatable Vikings pass defense. He projects to be popular but is definitely playable on all sites. Sam Darnold is also an option, although he is fairly expensive and has a much worse matchup. He has simply been very solid all season and does project to be low-rostered.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs has been on absolute fire, but this will be the toughest matchup he has faced in recent weeks. He is definitely playable, but not my favorite of the pay-up RBs this week. On the other side, Aaron Jones projects to be massively rostered. Once again, he’s by no means a must-avoid, but he’s not someone I love this week. The Packers’ defense is solid, and he has struggled near the goal line all season — he will need a big play or two to truly smash.
Wide Receivers
The Vikings’ defense is the best matchup in the league for wide receivers, the only question is which Packers receivers to play. Christian Watson is questionable with a knee injury. If he is out, I (and everyone else) will be into Dontayvion Wicks as an excellent value option. If Watson is in, he himself is playable, especially on Yahoo. With or without Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed are also both options. Doubs sees the most consistent routes of the group, while Reed has been boom-or-bust but is much more likely to boom when the Packers have a high-volume passing day. For the Vikings, Justin Jefferson has been showing up lately and is always in play. Jordan Addison is a bit expensive for my liking but can definitely also be played.
Tight Ends
A high-volume passing game would also be great for Tucker Kraft. However, his route participation rates have been trending badly in recent weeks, so I lean toward fading him. T.J. Hockenson is also a bit more expensive than I would have hoped, but both of these guys are still valid ways into the best environment on the slate.
Defenses
On a slate with so many genuinely bad offenses to target, I’m not interested in playing the Packers’ defense or the Vikings’ defense.
DraftKings
Cash Game
It’s not how I’d normally build a cash game lineup, but I’m tempted by a Studs and Duds approach for this week. On a slate with so few truly reliable options, slamming in Saquon Barkley and Baker Mayfield at the top feels so nice. Let’s also pair Baker with Bucky, giving us access to hopefully the vast majority of the points from one of the few offenses with a very high total this week. To find the cash to get them in, we can punt TE with Payton Durham, play Josh Downs with Richardson probably out, and assume Christian Watson is out by playing Wicks. I’m also going to eat the chalk with the Raiders’ defense. That leaves just a WR spot and a FLEX spot with $13,600, and there are plenty of ways to finish things off.
Tournament
Let’s just go ahead and stack the obvious game, with Darnold to Jefferson and Wicks coming back the other way. Then let’s get in two pieces from the other best game on the slate with Hubbard and Durham. I also like playing the chalk Raiders defense paired with Mattison, assuming the Raiders simply dominate Rattler and the Saints. That leaves a ton of cash for the final two spots, and there are plenty of ways to fill them (personally, I might not be able to resist the siren song of Calvin Ridley one last time).
FanDuel
Cash Game
Playing on FanDuel brings the Sunday night game, which happens to feature a weirdly cheap Zach Ertz. Let’s actually pair him with another Commander in Brian Robinson, who is surprisingly cheap for the volume he has been seeing. Speaking of volume, let’s slam in two guys with similar initials in BTJ and JT. If we pay down for the Raiders’ defense, we somehow still have enough cash to get in a Josh Allen/Khalil Shakir stack. That just leaves two slots and $13,400 to fill them — make that work however you wish.
Tournament
What if the Dolphins simply stomp the Browns? We know Miami is a team that will run the score up, they have a theoretical schematic advantage, and DTR is arguably the worst starting QB in the league. Let’s fully lean into that scenario with Tua, Tyreek, Achane, and the Dolphins’ defense. This is an expensive stack, so let’s go back to Durham at tight end to save some cash. This allows us to slam in another expensive running back in Irving, plus Ridley once again. From there, we have $13,300 and just two spots.
Yahoo
Cash Game
I don’t want to put too many eggs in the Raiders’ defense basket, so let’s pivot to the other minimum-priced option here in the Titans against Mac Jones. Kendre Miller as a starting RB at just $13 is too good to pass up, as is Jayden Reed all the way down at $19. Jake Ferguson at $11, one above the minimum, is also an obvious value option. Let’s spend some of those savings on Josh Allen and JT at the very top, plus Adams at receiver. That leaves a flex spot and one more WR spot with $44. That may not sound like much, but there are plenty of viable value options here — the Packers/Colts/Panthers receivers, Mattison, etc.
Tournament
The pricing of the Packers’ receivers here is absolutely begging for us to build a massive Jordan Love stack. At the very least, Love to Reed, with one or two of Watson/Doubs/Wicks on top. Of course, we’ve got to get Jefferson coming back the other way, and I’ll add in Aaron Jones as well. We’ll play the Raiders’ defense one last time, pairing them with Mattison. Already, we’ve built essentially an entire lineup, with just TE and FLEX spots open. I lean toward paying down at TE and grabbing a mid-range FLEX, but the opposite is also viable.