NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 16
Welcome to Week 16’s DFS preview! We once again have zero teams on bye, but the two Saturday games mean we are looking at an 11-game slate. After a few weeks of having multiple obvious running back values, pricing this week seems tougher. Let’s break it down!
Game Overviews
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected Totals: Giants 16.5, Falcons 26.5
After a few weeks of miserable outings from Kirk Cousins, the Falcons are officially making the switch to Michael Penix Jr. under center. We don’t really know what the rookie will bring, introducing a huge element of uncertainty into Atlanta’s offense. Meanwhile, the Giants are heading back to Drew Lock. Clearly, the betting markets aren’t impressed — a 16.5-point total against this Atlanta defense is gross.
Quarterbacks
Michael Penix is cheap enough, especially on DraftKings, to be worth considering. On the downside, he is a rookie making his first career start, and he doesn’t project for much rushing upside. On the upside, he is a complete unknown, so there’s a chance he’s just good — with a high total against a terrible defense, he’s definitely worth considering. The existence of Penix as a better-in-every-way value play makes Drew Lock even less enticing than he might normally be.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson has seen excellent usage in recent weeks as the Falcons tried to keep the ball out of Kirk Cousins’ hands. Will that continue with Penix? Either way, this is probably a smash spot for Bijan against the lowly Giants. Tyrone Tracy is a little appealing, but it’s very hard to trust him given how much Devin Singletary was involved last week.
Wide Receivers
The Falcons’ passing game has slowed down in recent weeks, so the question is whether Penix (and a great matchup) can provide a spark. If he can, Drake London is underpriced. Darnell Mooney probably would be, too, but he does come with more risk in case Penix is in the “rely heavily on your top target” stage of his development. Ray-Ray McCloud has a good enough combination of usage and price to be worth mentioning, but I’m not particularly interested. For the Giants, it’s all about Malik Nabers. Personally, I lean toward fading him — he’s incredibly talented and seeing excellent volume, but last week was still his first week inside the top 20 receivers since all the way back in Week 4. This is an excellent matchup, but his upside is so heavily capped by playing on arguably the league’s worst offense. Wan’Dale Robinson is comparable to McCloud as an unexciting value option — he probably has a higher floor than his slot counterpart, but his ceiling is even more capped than Nabers’ by the Giants’ overall ineptitude.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts actually showed signs of life last week, leading the Falcons with a 24% target share. Combine that with the “Penix spark” narrative and he’s a bit tempting, although he hasn’t produced much in weeks and the Giants are one of the toughest matchups for tight ends. For their part, New York doesn’t have a TE worth playing.
Defenses
The Falcons’ defense is the most expensive option on DK but cheaper on FD and Yahoo. Given the Giants’ miserable offensive showings of late, they can absolutely be played. The Giants’ defense is cheap enough to consider punting on them against Penix in his NFL debut, but that’s obviously a risky option.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Projected Totals: Lions 27.5, Bears 20.5
Thanks to a plethora of defensive injuries, the Lions seem to be reverting from a dominant team on both sides of the ball to the glass cannons they have been in years past. That’s great news for the DFS value of this game, as both teams have a shot to put up points.
Quarterbacks
Honestly, I’m tempted by the idea of Jared Goff this week, especially at very low projected rostership. We know that he can put up huge scores if pushed, and there’s a chance Chicago can move the ball against Detroit’s decimated defense. That theory also makes Caleb Williams appealing — he did put up a solid showing against the Lions a few weeks ago (and a few season-ending injuries ago) on Thanksgiving, although most of his production in that one came in garbage time.
Running Backs
With David Montgomery out, Jahmyr Gibbs is the no-brainer play of this slate. He was already putting up top-five numbers while playing in a heavily split backfield. If he gains even a portion of Montgomery’s work, he projects as the RB1. If he sees the majority, he is going to break the game. I recommend not overthinking it and playing him in most, if not all, of your lineups. On the other side, I’m not too interested in D’Andre Swift, even with all the Lions’ injury woes. When Chicago first switched play-callers, Roschon Johnson became a legitimate thorn in Swift’s fantasy value, especially near the goal line. Johnson has missed a few weeks in the concussion protocol, but now he is back, and that is enough to get me off of Swift this week.
Wide Receivers
Similar to his quarterback, Amon-Ra St. Brown gets a boost with the Lions’ decimated defense. I’m not worried that Chicago’s defense is theoretically a tough matchup for receivers; he is absolutely in play. Jameson Williams is, too. It’s been a while since we’ve seen him hit a big game, but it’s certainly still within his range of outcomes. For the Bears, D.J. Moore is my favorite play. Since Thomas Brown took over as Chicago’s OC, he is averaging over three screen targets per game, giving a huge boost to his floor. And we know he has the big-play ability to provide a ceiling. Keenan Allen has also been seeing excellent volume and has had some ceiling games of his own; he is also in play. Rome Odunze’s potential is tempting, but his production lags behind the other two and his price isn’t quite cheap enough to feel like a value.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta has seen a target share between 16.7% and 17.6% in each of his last five games. He may also be more involved with the Lions’ defensive woes and the lack of Montgomery. Now that his price has fallen out of the elite TEs, he is a very viable play. I’m not playing Cole Kmet, who doesn’t see consistent usage to separate from the TD-or-bust tier at the position.
Defenses
I’m not paying up for the Lions’ defense given their injury situation. I’m also not playing the Bears’ defense against the threshing machine Detroit calls an offense.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected Totals: Titans 19.5, Colts 23.5
The Colts are coming off an embarrassing loss that massively hurt their playoff chances. Meanwhile, the Titans have pulled the plug on the Will Levis experience, opting to start Mason Rudolph instead. Rudolph is an upgrade over Levis in terms of consistency, but these are still two of the worst offenses in the league.
Quarterbacks
At this point, it’s very clear that Anthony Richardson is not an NFL-caliber passer. However, he is averaging nine carries for 47 yards and a touchdown on the ground since return to the Colts’ starting lineup. At a very cheap price on DraftKings, he won’t need much passing production to return value with that level of rushing volume. I should note that he does project to be heavily rostered on DK, making it slightly less appealing to bet on that big outing. Mason Rudolph is cheap enough to think twice about, but he doesn’t bring much upside, and I am not playing him.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard has missed a couple of practices this week with an ankle injury, but he did the same thing last week before eventually suiting up. If he’s out, Tyjae Spears becomes the obvious value RB play for this slate, especially on DK. If Pollard is in, he’s worth considering, as Rudolph makes this offense more competent and this is a good matchup. However, the ankle is a concern, as is the fact that Spears cut into his workload last week (perhaps because of the ankle). Jonathan Taylor will surely be looking to put Week 15 behind him after an embarrassing mistake that may have cost the Colts the game (not to mention a playoff berth). The big issue with JT is that he essentially has to get there on the ground — he hasn’t seen more than two targets since Richardson reclaimed the starting role. Richardson also cuts into Taylor’s ceiling by claiming goal-line rush attempts. Put it all together, and I’m not playing Taylor this week, although he’s not unplayable given Indianapolis’ solid total.
Wide Receivers
With Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s sun run seemingly over, Calvin Ridley is the only WR to consider from the Titans. My love for Ridley has burned me plenty of times in recent weeks, but I still think his role and upside make him worth considering. His usage is elite, and Rudolph is an upgrade. Things are trickier on the Colts’ side, mostly because Richardson is so inconsistent as a passer. Josh Downs is temptingly cheap (except on Yahoo), and Adonai Mitchell is a viable dart throw with Alec Pierce ruled out. Michael Pittman Jr. has seen tons of targets in recent weeks and is cheap, too. But it’s very hard to trust anyone catching passes from Richardson, so proceed with caution.
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo saw a 26% target share last week, but it was just his second time all season above 15%, making him a pure dart throw with not very good odds. The Colts don’t even have a tight end I feel obligated to mention.
Defenses
The Colts’ defense projects to be very heavily rostered on DK (and still played some on FD and Yahoo even at higher salaries), but I’m not hugely interested. Will Levis was the main driver of Tennessee being a great matchup, while Rudolph has been remarkably mistake-free. Given that, the Colts’ defense isn’t good or cheap enough for me to play them at huge rostership. The Titans’ defense is cheaper, and a bit appealing as a value option — Richardson is elite at avoiding sacks but turnover-prone.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Totals: Browns 18.5, Bengals 28.5
This game looked set to be the game of the week, but the Browns have thrown a huge wrench in the works by pivoting to Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their starting quarterback. DTR has been statistically the worst QB in the league this season. Even if he finds success, it probably won’t be as high-volume as what Jameis Winston would have brought to the table. The Bengals’ huge total is a good sign that they should still put up points, but they likely won’t be pushed to go truly nuclear.
Quarterbacks
Given what I just said about not being pushed, I’m fading Joe Burrow this week. As a pure pocket passer, he needs everything to go right to pay off his top-three salaries, and there is a real risk he simply doesn’t need to do much this week. I’m also not playing Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Yes, he’s cheap and has an excellent matchup, but everything we’ve seen from him so far has been too putrid to project any real ceiling.
Running Backs
His price keeps rising (although not as much on FanDuel), but I still think this is a great spot for Chase Brown. He’s seeing unparalleled usage on a team with a 28.5-point total — what’s not to like? In theory, this is a decent matchup for Jerome Ford with Nick Chubb done for the year. However, Ford didn’t do much when Chubb was out at the start of the season, and the Browns’ offense could compltely shut down with DTR under center. Ford is playable, but I probably won’t be doing it.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase is never a bad play if you have the cash. The only question is, as with Burrow, whether the Bengals will be pushed enough for their superstar to have a truly massive game (which he kind of needs to pay off WR1 overall prices). Similar concerns potentially apply to Tee Higgins, but his lower price helps offset them, so they are both playable. Even in a dream matchup, I can’t play any of the Browns’ receivers with DTR under center. Jerry Jeudy is suddenly very expensive, while Elijah Moore is coming off a game in which he turned six targets into negative receiving yards. Cedric Tillman (assuming he is active) is perhaps the most tempting of the group, as his prices are lower and he was keeping pace with Jeudy prior to his concussion. Still, all three come with essentially zero floor.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki has been below a 50% route participation rate in each of the last two weeks, making him unplayable. If he is healthy, David Njoku is worth considering. He also gets a downgrade with DTR, but Thompson-Robinson did target his TE heavily in his three starts as a rookie.
Defenses
The Bengals’ defense is bad enough that it won’t feel good paying high prices to put them in your lineup, but they’re definitely worth considering with how rough DTR has looked this season. The Browns’ defense is not playable despite low prices.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Totals: Cardinals 26.5, Panthers 20.5
After a few promising games in a row, the Panthers came crashing back to Earth last week with an ugly loss to the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Cardinals essentially need to win this game to stay alive for the playoffs. If the Panthers’ offense bounces back, could this game be exciting? Maybe, but the Cardinals’ offense hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations all season, either.
Quarterbacks
After letting everyone down last week, Kyler Murray once again stands out as a value play on DraftKings. This may just be my bitterness from last week talking, but I’m tempted to fade him at huge projected rostership. He isn’t running much and is seemingly allergic to the end zone. However, Murray is at least still interesting as we know he has upside if he can break a big run. I’m not at all interested in Bryce Young against a quietly tough Cardinals defense.
Running Backs
With Trey Benson and Emari Demercado both out, this is a smash spot for James Conner, who should get all the volume he can handle against a bad Panthers run defense. He will be chalky but is still playable on all three sites. Chuba Hubbard’s production was disappointing last week, but he did see dominant usage, playing 94% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps. I don’t think the return of Raheem Blackshear will change much, so that kind of usage means Hubbard is in play regardless of his lackluster offensive environment.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s price keeps falling (except on FanDuel, where it inexplicably went up), making it more tempting to chase his theoretical upside … but that upside looks more and more theoretical with every week where he fails to produce. Michael Wilson is a decent value WR option, like he is most weeks. For the Panthers, Xavier Legette is doubtful. That leaves Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker, and David Moore as the three starting receivers for the Panthers. Thielen has been performing well and is the most trustworthy of the trio, but that is reflected in his salaries. Coker and Moore are both intriguing as value options — Coker is definitely the more exciting talent, but Moore has also had big games this season and will be less rostered.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride is the best pay-up tight end on this slate. He has been dominating all season, and the Cardinals clearly want to get him a receiving touchdown. This may be their best chance to do it against the lowly Panthers. Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble are in a useless committee.
Defenses
The Cardinals’ defense is expensive but could be interesting given they have very low projected rostership for a good unit in a good matchup. The Panthers’ defense isn’t very interesting.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Projected Totals: Eagles 24.5, Commanders 21.5
The Eagles leaned into the pass last week after a week of drama surrounding their lackluster numbers. Will they keep it up this week in an important divisional matchup? This could be a very exciting game if the Commanders’ offense isn’t slowed down by Philadelphia’s red-hot defense.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts is always worth considering, as he seems to score at least one rushing touchdown every week. Jayden Daniels also brings dual-threat upside, but he gets the much tougher matchup in this contest. With that said, both of these QBs are playable.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley projects to be heavily rostered even as the most expensive RB on all three sites. He brings both a real shot at a week-winning ceiling and an excellent high floor. If you have the money, you can’t go wrong putting him in your lineup. Brian Robinson saw elite usage last week against the Saints with Austin Ekeler sidelined, although his final stat line was a bit disappointing. Even in a tough matchup, he can definitely be played — the Commanders’ offense has been good enough that we can expect them to find at least some success.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown was the squeaky wheel last week, and he got his grease. Will that continue this week, or will he go back to seeing disappointing volume? Especially considering that this game does have a chance of shooting out, AJB is a very viable play. DeVonta Smith is, too, as he comes with even more volume concerns than Brown but at a much cheaper price (although he is priced up on FD). Terry McLaurin is the engine of the Commanders’ passing game, but it’s hard to pay up for him with how well the Eagles’ secondary has been playing recently. With that said, great offense beats great defense, and the Commanders simply have to get McLaurin going if they want a shot in this one. Dyami Brown is serving as Washington’s WR2 with Noah Brown sidelined — he would be an appealing punt play if it weren’t for this terrible matchup.
Tight Ends
As long as Dallas Goedert is sidelined, Grant Calcaterra is worth considering as a value TE. On the other side, Ben Sinnot is even cheaper (except on Yahoo, where they are both at the minimum) and should be the Commanders’ primary receiving TE without Zach Ertz. He’s a punt option, but keep in mind that he has a grand total of five career receptions and probably won’t step into 100% of the usage Ertz left behind.
Defenses
I’m not interested in either the Eagles’ defense or the Commanders’ defense.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
Projected Totals: Rams 24.5, Jets 22.5
The Rams are coming off an ugly win against the 49ers, and every week is crucial for their playoff hopes. The Jets aren’t playing for anything, but Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams turned back the clock last week for a massive outing. Can they do it again?
Quarterbacks
There’s not much to make Matthew Stafford stand out among a large tier of decent pocket passers on this slate. For what it’s worth, he’s cheapest on FD — just remember to stack him with at least one of his weapons. Aaron Rodgers hit last week and gets another decent matchup this week. Like Stafford, he’s best used as the head of a stack for tournament lineups.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams continues to see some of the best volume in the league (aside from that one drive every week that Blake Corum plays). In a game where the Rams are favored against a mediocre Jets defense, he is definitely in play. Breece Hall has escaped fully from the injury report heading into this contest. He’s far cheaper on DK than the other two sites but would be playable on all three if he sees a full workload … but that’s a big if. Isaiah Davis and Braelon Allen (who is questionable with a back injury) both claimed decent chunks of his usage last week. If Allen is out, Hall is probably too cheap to pass, especially on DK. Otherwise, he becomes more of a risky high-ceiling/low-floor option.
Wide Receivers
The great thing about this game is that it features two of the most condensed passing offenses in the league. For the Rams, it’s all about Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. For the Jets, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. I honestly think all four are viable plays — Nacua and Adams have seen dominant volume in recent weeks, but Wilson and Kupp are cheaper and could certainly also have big games.
Tight Ends
There is not a single playable tight end in this matchup.
Defenses
With the Jets showing signs of offensive life, the Rams’ defense isn’t particularly interesting. The Jets’ defense is a bit more intriguing, especially priced down on DK, but I still lean toward avoiding them.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Projected Totals: Vikings 22.5, Seahawks 19.5
This matchup might have the widest range of outcomes of any game on the slate. Both teams have good enough defenses that we could be in for an ugly outing (especially with Seattle’s O-line against Brian Flores), but they both also have high offensive ceilings.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith had an injury scare in Seattle’s Week 15 loss to the Packers, but he is off the injury report and good to go for this matchup. With that said, this isn’t a great spot for him against a Vikings defense that will likely have him running for his life. It’s a better spot for Sam Darnold, but his salaries are a bit expensive given that Seattle’s defense is solid and he is Sam Darnold.
Running Backs
Both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet will likely be active for the Seahawks. If we will see the same usage we saw the last time both were healthy, Walker’s prices are very tempting. However, I think Charbonnet may be more involved given his recent success, and Walker wasn’t exactly lightning it on fire anyway. I will be avoiding this backfield. For the Vikings, Aaron Jones is still the clear lead back, but Cam Akers is also involved (most of his carries last week did come in garbage time, however). Jones is a solid play as a mid-range RB, with a high ceiling and relatively low rostership.
Wide Receivers
On paper, this is an excellent spot for both Seattle receivers, as the Vikings have been the softest schedule-adjusted opponent for receivers all season. In practice, I’m still worried about the Seattle O-line holding up against Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme. That may mean extra short-area targets for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, perhaps at the expense of DK Metcalf. On the other hand, DK has fallen enough (except on FD) that I do like him in this spot. JSN is also a viable play, especially on DK. Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson is still Justin Jefferson. He’s playable, especially if you think the Seahawks can make this game a bit more exciting. Jordan Addison is also worth considering, but his prices have risen a bit high for my liking given how inconsistent he has been all season.
Tight Ends
There’s nothing that makes Noah Fant stand out as a mid-range TE option this week. T.J. Hockenson also isn’t too appealing, although he at least has seen a 18% target share in each of the last two weeks.
Defenses
The Vikings’ defense is very expensive against a decent Seattle offense, but it’s not out of the question that they record an absurd number of sacks this week, so they’re not entirely off the table. I’m not too interested in the Seahawks’ defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders
Projected Totals: Jaguars 19.5, Raiders 20.5
This is a battle of two of the worst teams in the NFL. I’m tempted to say that that means it has a chance to shoot out (both of these defenses are bad), but the totals imply otherwise.
Quarterbacks
Aidan O’Connell is just cheap enough and the Jaguars’ secondary is just bad enough that he’s worth thinking twice about. But I still probably won’t play him, especially with Penix available as a more intriguing value QB option. The same more or less applies to Mac Jones.
Running Backs
With Sincere McCormick unfortunately done for the season, the Raiders will be rolling out an Ameer Abdullah/Alexander Mattison backfield. They’re both cheap, including Abdullah all the way at the minimum on Yahoo. However, I’m not confident enough in who (if anyone) will claim the lead job to recommend either. There’s a similar issue in the Jaguars’ backfield. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby have each had one week as the clear lead back and one week as the second option out of the last two. This is a great matchup, although it gets less great when we consider that the Raiders are actually favored. Still, a probably competitive game script should favor Bigsby … but I once again lean toward avoiding both. They are more talented than their Raiders counterparts but also much more expensive.
Wide Receivers
With AOC back under center (Desmond Ridder was somehow a large downgrade) and a dream matchup, Jakobi Meyers is back on the menu as a high-volume mid-range play. I’m even a little tempted by Tre Tucker, who posted a 91% route participation rate last week and is very cheap. Brian Thomas Jr. is coming off a massive game last week in which he saw an excellent 30% target share. That kind of usage, plus his big-play ability, makes him worth considering for sure.
Tight Ends
The last two weeks haven’t been ideal, but Brock Bowers is still absolutely in play despite being the most expensive TE on the slate. He projects to be less rostered than McBride but still has just as high of a ceiling. Brenton Strange came through in a big way last week as a punt TE option, and I don’t think it’s crazy to go back to him even at higher prices. His usage was legitimately excellent.
Defenses
The Raiders’ defense will be heavily rostered on all three sites as a cheap option against a terrible offense. The Jaguars’ defense is also an option, although their prices are more varied (cheap on Yahoo, middling on FD, too expensive on DK).
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Projected Totals: Patriots 15.5, Bills 30.5
The Bills have absolutely melted faces over the last two weeks, and they obviously come into this week with a truly massive total. However, the Patriots aren’t exactly likely to keep pace and turn this into a shootout.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen has absolutely smashed each of the last two slates. But now his salaries are massive, and this matchup isn’t one where he will have to go Superman. It’s never a mistake to put Allen in your lineup, but I lean toward fading him this week. I’ll be avoiding Drake Maye as well, except perhaps on FanDuel where he is a bit cheaper … although even then I don’t love him.
Running Backs
James Cook continues to run incredibly well in terms of hitting on big plays and touchdowns despite low volume. However, this might be a week where he does see more volume as the Bills dominate their division rivals. He is absolutely in play. The Bills allow a ton of receiving production to opposing running backs, but Rhamondre Stevenson still isn’t too appealing given New England’s low total.
Wide Receivers
Khalil Shakir is the only Bills receiver I’m even considering as no other WR (Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman included) reached even a 50% route participation rate last week. But even Shakir was at just 65%, so I struggle to justify paying top-20 prices for him. This is where I give my weekly take that Kayshon Boutte is running a ton of routes, and that makes him an intriguing punt play … but it sure hasn’t worked yet. No other Patriots WR is worth playing.
Tight Ends
These teams both played tight end committees last week. Dalton Kincaid saw good target volume but ran fewer routes than Dawson Knox. Hunter Henry was the only consistent piece of this Patriots offense for a long time, but Austin Hooper was essentially just as involved last week. Knox and Hooper are both cheap enough to be tempting, but I lean toward avoiding all four of these names.
Defenses
The Bills’ defense is expensive but should have a good outing against the worst O-line in the league. I wouldn’t play the Patriots’ defense at $0.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Projected Totals: 49ers 23.5, Dolphins 22.5
What a disappointing matchup this is. Both of these teams came into the season with big expectations but are now all but eliminated from the playoffs (the Dolphins have a more realistic hope than the 49ers, but it’s still not much). Could we get a shootout for old-time’s sake between Kyle Shanahan and his former OC Mike McDaniel? Maybe, but it seems unlikely.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy is coming off an atrocious outing, and Miami’s defense has actually been a tough matchup for quarterbacks all season. On that note, has San Francisco’s and Tua Tagovailoa also struggled last week after three straight big performances. Neither of these quarterbacks is unplayable, but they’re not particularly appealing, either.
Running Backs
Maybe I’m crazy, but I don’t understand why no one is excited about Patrick Taylor this week. With Isaac Guerendo ruled out, he should be the 49ers’ RB1, and we know that that is a valuable role. I’m just not worried about Ke’Shawn Vaughn or Israel Abanikanda seeing many touches after having joined San Francisco only a few weeks ago (and being cut by their previous teams). In my eyes, Taylor is a good value play, especially on FanDuel and Yahoo. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane is still a viable pay-up option on all sites thanks to his absurd receiving workload — if he ever hits on just one of the big plays that he seemingly had every week as a rookie, watch out.
Wide Receivers
The only place where I will even consider Deebo Samuel is Yahoo, where his price has plummeted. Even then, it’s very hard to get excited given his complete inability to get anything going for essentially this whole season. I am excited about Jauan Jennings, who has had a few down weeks but continues to see truly excellent usage. Jaylen Waddle is out for the Dolphins. That makes Tyreek Hill, whose salaries have fallen, particularly interesting, although the 49ers’ defense has been very tough on opposing WRs. Still, I think Hill is playable. I’m also probably biased because I loved him as a prospect, but I am considering playing Malik Washington as a value option. He should be Miami’s WR2 with Waddle out and saw a 15% target share last week, including multiple designed touches. The rookie is impressive with the ball in his hands and only needs one big play to pay off his prices.
Tight Ends
George Kittle doesn’t see the volume of the other elite TEs, but he is still the best big-play threat at the position in the entire league. That ceiling keeps him playable ever week. Shockingly, that list of the “other elite TEs” includes Jonnu Smith, who has seen a 20%+ target share in four of the last five weeks. He is certainly playable, although it’s worth noting that the 49ers have shut down opposing TEs.
Defenses
As much as these offenses have fallen from grace, I’m still not playing the 49ers’ defense or the Dolphins’ defense.
DraftKings
Cash Game
I said Gibbs should go in most, if not all, lineups, and he’s certainly going in all of my cash lineups. I also love the projectable volume of the running backs in the Arizona/Carolina game, Conner and Hubbard. We’re going to need some value, so let’s pay down at both TE and QB with Strange and Penix. The Raiders’ defense sticks out as a cheap value option, and we can also get in Jakobi Meyers from that game. That just leaves two WR spots and $12,100; there are plenty of ways to make that work.
Tournament
It’s going to be popular, but I still want to start with Richardson, whose ceiling is simply so high for his price on DK. The question then becomes whether to stack any of his pass-catchers — we don’t have to, because he can get there on rushing alone. But I still lean toward including Adonai Mitchell. If he hits on one deep bomb, that’s a huge step toward both him and Richardson hitting and we are cooking with gas. Let’s further add to our correlation with Ridley going back the other way. From there, I like getting in two high-variance AFC East running backs who could hit huge: Cook and Hall. Of course, that third RB spot is saved for Gibbs. We have enough cash to pay up at tight end, so pick your favorite elite TE. That leaves just a WR spot and a DST, with enough cash to have solid options at both.
FanDuel
Cash Game
We start with Gibbs, of course. Then let’s get in Taylor and take the discount on Chase Brown relative to the other two sites. The Raiders’ defense is also simply too cheap against the terrible Jaguars. I also like getting LaPorta in at tight end, as well as Jakobi one more time at receiver. D.J. Moore also sticks out as being cheaper here than on the other two sites. From there, we actually have enough cash to pay up for an elite QB and still grab a solid WR — pick your poison.
Tournament
I’m going back to Taylor, and I also promise this is the last time I will play Calvin Ridley until he actually scores some points. Let’s also stack Penix with Robinson and London, with Nabers going back the other way. I’m also going to slam Gibbs in once again, as I can’t imagine many people will be playing the rest of this lineup. From there, finish things off with the defense/TE pairing that most appeals to you.
Yahoo
Cash Game
I’m going to start by locking in two players I love at the minimum $10 in Malik Washington and Patrick Taylor. We can also get in Brenton Strange and the Falcons’ defense for just $6 more above the minimum. This allows us to get in the big guns up top: Gibbs once again and Josh Allen. I also like taking the discount on Metcalf thanks to his recent string of bad outings. That leaves 53 dollars for one WR spot and one FLEX, and there are plenty of great options.
Tournament
I’m actually going to start with the same pair of minimum options (Washington and Taylor) as the cash lineup, but that is where the similarities end. I’m going to skip on Gibbs for the first time in this article, instead grabbing two slightly cheaper options in Achane and Hubbard. Since we’ve now got three players from the 49ers/Dolphins matchup, let’s assume it goes full shootout and get in Purdy and Kittle. I’m going to stick with the Falcons’ defense as a pivot off the massively-rostered Raiders and Jaguars. That leaves just two WR spots and $58 — there are a plethora of ways to finish things off, including potentially picking another Miami or SF WR to fully commit to a massive game stack.