DFS Building Blocks – Week 5
Four weeks are in the books and we are seeing some early season narratives starting to solidify into reality. The Bengals are struggling big time, failing to make the most of a Tennessee Titans defense that offered the perfect bounce-back opportunity for their failing pass attack. There is no doubt that Burrow’s injury is proving very detrimental to the team, but is he another week healthier now…
We were on Burrow and Fields last week. Fields and both Moore and Kmet paid off last week. Reminder, we can play some popular players in good spots as well, but we want to be on players who have the capability of big scores when they’re super unpopular. Could Burrow possibly any less popular than he is right now? Sign me up.
While the Bengals continue to fall under expectations, CJ Stroud and the Texans are doing the complete opposite. Stroud looks like he should have been the first overall pick in the most recent draft and has helped Nico Collins breakout in miraculous fashion.
Collins was one of a few monster performances in week four, including a 4-touchdown game from McCaffrey and 2 more for the rookie, De’Von Achane. Let’s see what opportunities the week five slate gives us.
Game Overviews
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons
Time: 1:00 EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia
Moneyline: Houston Texans +110, Atlanta Falcons -130
Spread: Houston Texans +1.5 (-110), Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (-110)
Total Points: Over/Under 41.5
Bijan time! The Texans can be had on the ground, and Bijan Robinson has earned more and more of the share in this Falcons backfield. Arthur Smith desperately needs a win here, and he isn’t going to get that by asking his quarterback to do more. Bijan is the Falcons’ best chance to win and you can be sure Arthur Smith will give him all the opportunities to do so here.
Unfortunately, there is very little else to excite us. Desmond Ridder is simply not good enough to make himself or his receivers relevant. When Jonnu Smith is leading the team in receiving, you know you’re in trouble. The Kyle Pitts situation is agonizing and Drake London isn’t getting enough looks to be trusted. They may come into consideration, but it will be when Taylor Heinicke inevitably takes over the starting quarterback role.
It is a totally different situation for the Houston Texans. Their young quarterback, CJ Stroud, is playing like a seasoned veteran. He has turned Nico Collins into a monster, and Tank Dell is one of the best-performing rookies in the league. The Falcons, however, are not an easy defense to get one over on. AJ Terrell is one of the best cornerbacks in the league, and he held Calvin Ridley to just 2 catches on 2 targets last week. He should shadow Nico Collins and make his life difficult, which could bring Tank Dell into the equation a bit more. Dell is $800 cheaper than Collins on DraftKings and could be less owned. He could be a very good value play with massive upside, as proven by his performances in weeks 2 and 3.
For the rest of the running backs on the field, I would say the upside is just not there to make them worthwhile. Tyler Allgeier for the Falcons can boom but only in great game scripts, and I worry that Bijan will take all the work in this one. On the Texans side, Dameon Pierce is finding some form but the efficiency is still way down and this is a very tough matchup.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Stroud + Dell
Stroud + Dell + Robinson
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Bijan Robinson
Collins
Dell
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Allgeier
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions
Time: 1:00 EST
Venue: Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan
Moneyline: Carolina Panthers +375, Detroit Lions -500
Spread: Carolina Panthers +10 (-110), Detroit Lions -10 (-110)
Total Points: Over/Under 44.5
The Detroit Lions are looking very good this year, but there are a few injuries to keep an eye on. Amon-Ra St. Brown is battling a toe injury and a new oblique injury, but the expectation is that he will suit up. If he does, he’s always in consideration, despite the Panthers being surprisingly stingy against wide receivers. Another great start is rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who has taken fantastically to the NFL. The quality of the Lions’ offense gives him great scoring potential every week, but with the tight end market being the way it is, he will probably have a high ownership.
Josh Reynolds is also on the injury report with a groin injury, which, along with the matchup, is probably enough to take him off our board. He is a great secondary wide receiver to St. Brown, but there is little upside this week.
The player that should smash this week is David Montgomery. The Lions want to run the ball with their big running back, and he showed that he can deliver when called upon last week, turning 32 carries into 121 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jahmyr Gibbs is also a good play this week, but he’s got a late injury he’s dealing with. But the Panthers are giving up the 4th most points to the running back position.
For Carolina, I think the safest option is to simply say no to all of your Panthers in week 5. They are looking very disjointed on offense, and lack explosiveness across the board. With the Detroit Lions’ defense looking strong this season, I wouldn’t try to get cute and find a spot for Bryce Young, Miles Sanders, or Adam Thielen.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Montgomery + Amon-Ra + LaPorta
Gibbs + Amon-Ra
Montgomery + Lions DEF
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Montgomery
Gibbs
Amon-Ra
LaPorta
Lions DEF
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Jameson Williams
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Time: 1:00 EST
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, Indiana
Moneyline: Tennessee Titans -140, Indianapolis Colts +120
Spread: Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110), Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (-110)
Total Points: Over/Under 43.5
Anthony Richardson has put together a very impressive few weeks to start his career. Having missed week three to injury, it has slipped under the radar a bit that Richardson is the third-best quarterback on a points-per-game basis. He is running the ball well and passing much better than people expected in the early stages of his career. The Titans will be a fascinating test for the young quarterback, but if he can take advantage of their soft pass defense, he could be a top-scoring quarterback yet again this week.
At the running back position, the Titans are a very bad matchup. They can even limit Richardson’s rushing upside. If Jonathan Taylor plays, I think that will rule both him and Zack Moss out as options. If Taylor sits again, then Zack Moss might get some points, but you will need him to do most of his work in the passing game. I would leave him out this week. Pittman is a fantastic start though. A Richardson and Pittman stack sounds very interesting to me at a low cost and expected ownership. Alec Pierce remains due for a deep TD and the matchup is great.
For the Titans playmakers, it is a good matchup, but it doesn’t excite me too much for them. Yes, Derrick Henry is very much in play, but I am not confident about the receivers. Deandre Hopkins can get there on volume against this poor Colts’ pass defense. I doubt people flock to start Titans each week so some exposure to these two could give you a bit of an edge if the Titans take some momentum from their demolition of Cincinnati.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Richardson + Pittman/Pierce
Henry + Pierce
Richardson + Pittman/Pierce + Hopkins
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Anthony Richardson
Pittman (on DK)
Henry
Hopkins
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Henry + Titans DEF
Treylon Burks
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins
Time: 1:00 EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida
Moneyline: New York Giants +500, Miami Dolphins -700
Spread: New York Giants +12 (-110), Miami Dolphins -12 (-110)
Total Points: Over/Under 47.5
I am still reeling a bit from Daniel Jones’ poor game against the Seahawks last week. What makes me even more nervous is that I want to recommend him again. Maybe I have a weird obsession with Jones, but I see another potential blow-up spot this week against the Miami Dolphins, who have given up the 5th most points to quarterbacks this year. I don’t blame you if you ignore this one, but I think I will aim to have a bit of exposure to him. He is going to be low-owned, and we know that he is capable of using his legs to post some massive fantasy scores. Go big or go home right? Surprisingly, Burrow is coming in at around 3 times the expected ownership of Jones. Maybe my Burrow pick isn’t sneaking up on people like I thought.
Elsewhere on the Giants, I will look to get some exposure to Darren Waller, but very little else. Waller has a good matchup and the Giants simply need to find something that works on offense. He should be who they turn to. I also like Wan’Dale Robinson, who has seen his snap share increase since returning from injury two weeks ago. He led all Giants receivers last week and could be turning into the number-one option for New York. It is definitely not a stack you want to get too much exposure to, but if the Giants score some points against Miami, this could be a fantastic contrarian play.
On the other side of the ball, there are endless options to consider. I like Waddle, who is surely due a big performance after a quiet start to the season, and he should be much lower owned than Tyreek. Tyreek destroys man defense, Giants play man defense, Tyreek super popular… but what if the Giants don’t play man defense? Waddle is cheaper than Tyreek, and maybe this is the week that he outscores his fellow receiver. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are also excellent plays. The Dolphins have one of the most beautiful running games in the league and they should score for fun in this one. Achane is no longer sneaking up on people, but he still carries a lot of upside in this matchup.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Waddle + Waller
Jones + Waller + Robinson + Waddle
Jones + Waller
Tua + Achane + Hill
Tua + Moster/Achane + Waddle
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Waller
Robinson
Mostert
Achane
Hill
Waddle
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Braxton Berrios
Durham Smythe
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots
Time: 1:00 EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, Massachusetts
Moneyline: New Orleans Saints -110, New England Patriots -110
Spread: New Orleans Saints -1 (-105), New England Patriots +1 (-115)
Total Points: Over/Under 39.5
There is not much to be excited about in this one. Two struggling offenses versus two excellent defenses is not a recipe for fantasy points. Both defenses make for good plays, but you won’t be playing too much else here.
The one mini-stack that I could see proving fruitful is Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. Olave is coming off a down week, but had received at least 10 targets in every game prior. The Saints lost badly to their division rivals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so I expect them to go back to Olave in this one to try and re-find their winning ways. Stellar rookie cornerback Christian Gonzales just suffered a season-ending injury, which will make Olave’s job a little bit easier.
Alvin Kamara is back and instantly a solid option in DFS. He received 14 targets last week, catching 13 of them for 33 yards. I expect plenty more dump-offs and short targets against this strong defensive line. He provides you with a very high floor that could turn into a high ceiling if he rips off a couple of big plays and scores a touchdown.
I don’t see myself playing any Patriots though, outside of the defense. Rhamondre Stevenson has lacked explosiveness and is now losing reps to Ezekiel Elliott, and there is no one else on this roster who I back to put up points. Hunter Henry would be the closest, but even he is hard to trust against this rock-solid Saints defense.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Kamara + Olave
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Kamara
Olave
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Rashid Shaheed
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Time: 1:00 EST
Venue: Acrisure Stadium – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Moneyline: Baltimore Ravens -200, Pittsburgh Steelers +165
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -4 (-115), Pittsburgh Steelers +4 (-105)
Total Points: Over/Under 38.5
From one low-scoring projection to another, this AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers may not be a pretty one. We are yet to hear if Kenny Pickett has been ruled out, but I am not sure it makes much of a difference. He hasn’t exactly given this offense much of a chance so far this season, and I don’t see myself wanting any exposure to the Steelers, regardless of who is playing QB.
Probably the only Steeler I would consider playing is Jaylen Warren. I expect his ownership to be low, and if the Steelers are to move the ball at all, some dump-offs to him are the most likely route. Chucking him into your flex in one or two lineups could be a good play if you want some Steeler action.
For the Ravens, it is a good matchup on paper, but these AFC North clashes tend to be closely fought affairs, especially with this being in Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers (too cheap on FD) are all solid options, but I wouldn’t want too much exposure as I could see them struggling this week, as the low point total suggests.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Jackson + Flowers/Andrews
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Jackson
Flowers
Andrews
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Keaton Mitchell
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
Time: 1:00 EST
Venue: State Farm Stadium – Glendale, Arizona
Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals -163, Arizona Cardinals +135
Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-110), Arizona Cardinals +3 (-110)
Total Points: Over/Under 44.5
It is crazy that we are already in must-win territory for the Cincinnati Bengals, but here we are. Joe Burrow is clearly very limited by his calf injury and it is affecting the passing game. Chase is not able to operate down the field and the dink-and-dunk approach is not creating any other fantasy joy. You don’t want too much exposure to the Bengals until Joe Burrow is healthy, but Mixon and Chase should be able to do some damage against a poor Arizona defense. Given their hefty price tags though, I am sure you can get some bigger upside elsewhere. They do make night tourney picks, albeit at surprisingly high ownership. Should note that Boyd always seems to pay off when Higgins or Chase misses time.
It’s wild to think that it is the Arizona side of the ball that looks more appealing. I could definitely make the case for throwing in a Joshua Dobbs, James Conner, and Marquise Brown stack as a high-upside contrarian play. Dobbs has been delivering the ball to his receivers nicely, also showing some burst as a runner to help give you a solid floor.
James Conner is a true do-it-all running back and he will be a solid option for points every week. The surprise performances by Dobbs have also made Marquise Brown a better-than-expected option to start the season. This Cincinnati defense just conceded 27 points to an ageing Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans. These Cardinals are very much in play this week.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Burrow + Chase
Chase + Conner
Dobbs + Conner + Brown + Chase
Conner + Brown + Ertz
Mixon + Brown
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Conner
Mixon
Brown
Ertz
Boyd
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Michael Wilson
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
Time: 16:05 EST
Venue: SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, California
Moneyline: Philadelphia Eagles -200, Los Angeles Rams +165
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -4 (-110), Los Angeles Rams +4 (-110)
Total Points: Over/Under 49.5
This should be a fun game between two good offenses and two defenses that can be picked apart. The Eagles playmakers will be options every single week, but it is worth noting that the Rams have surprisingly given up the 5th fewest points to the wide receiver position this year. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are two of the best in the league though, and they should still get theirs.
Maybe this does create some opportunity for Dallas Goedert though, who has largely been forgotten about in 2023. Our questions surrounding the Eagles running back room seem to have been answered, with D’Andre Swift now the clear number one, getting 14 carries to Gainwell’s 4. He also had twice as many targets than Gainwell and should be in for another good game this week.
Matthew Stafford continues to pepper his rookie Puka Nacua with targets, getting the rookie his first touchdown in week four, amidst another huge game. The Eagles have given up the third-highest points to wide receivers this season, and Nacua should feast this weekend, regardless of if Cooper Kupp returns.
For as bad as they are against the pass, the Eagles are the opposite against the run, giving up just 46.2 yards per game. This will make it hard for Kyren Williams to impact the game as a rusher, but he has been targeted like crazy by Stafford over the last few weeks. With the Rams expected to be in a negative game script this week, I think Williams will get more than enough opportunities through the air to remain a viable option, especially on DK.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Stafford + Goedert
Stafford + Williams + Nacua + Smith/Brown
Williams + Nacua/Higbee
Hurts + Swift + Brown
Hurts + Goedert + Smith
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Williams
Swift
Nacua
Brown
Smith
Higbee
Goedert
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Tutu Atwell
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Time: 16:25 EST
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High – Denver, Colorado
Moneyline: New York Jets +115, Denver Broncos -135
Spread: New York Jets +2.5 (-110), Denver Broncos -2.5 (-110)
Total Points: Over/Under 43.5
Zach Wilson surprised everyone last week by putting together a very solid outing against a good Chiefs defense. This week, he gets the best fantasy matchup you can ask for in the Denver Broncos. If he can replicate his level of play from last week, there could be some massive performances from the likes of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
I will absolutely be creating some mini-stacks with Hall and Wilson, and wouldn’t put you off throwing Zach Wilson in as a lottery pick. Justin Fields had a great day as a passer against Denver, and Zach Wilson should have some confidence after playing well against the Chiefs. If he can get the ball to his playmakers, the Broncos’ defense will struggle to stop them and Wilson could find himself having a big fantasy day… at less than 1% ownership.
The exciting news this week is that Breece Hall will no longer be on a snap count. Trusting coaches is a risky business, but the Denver matchup could not be a more perfect spot to unleash Breece Hall, who has been held back up to this point. I was already planning to have exposure to him and wish the coaches wouldn’t have said anything.
I am nowhere near as confident in the Broncos, who have a tough matchup against the Jets’ defense. Russell Wilson should be nowhere near your lineups this week, and that means you probably don’t want to be looking at Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton either. The Jets are the second-best team against wide receivers so don’t try and get cute with it. Those two will be low-owned for a very good reason.
Javonte Williams’ injury does free up some opportunities in the running back room, but Samaje Perine is not good enough to succeed against this Jets’ defense. Jaleel McLaughlin is a bit more interesting. He showed some excellent burst and shiftiness last week and could be a bit of a wildcard here. Certainly worth considering as a lottery pick in your flex.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Hall + Garrett Wilson
Wilson + Wilson
Hall + Jets D/ST
Wilson + Hall + Jets D/ST
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Hall
Garrett Wilson
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Zach Wilson
Jaleel McLaughlin
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings
Time: 16:25 EST
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs -200, Minnesota Vikings +165
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-110), Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (-110)
Total Points: Over/Under 52.5
After struggling against the New York Jets, this is a great bounce-back spot for all of the Kansas City Chiefs’ playmakers. The point total is high and I’d expect Mahomes to go crazy on this Minnesota secondary. While you can’t be sure which wide receiver will pop off against this Vikings unit that have given up the second most points to the position, you can be sure that Mahomes will get his, making him a great option to play naked. Rashee Rice is probably the best bet, as he has seen his opportunities rise in recent weeks. Rice could be a nice, cheap option to stack with Mahomes.
Kelce is of course another great option if you are willing to pay up, as he feels a lock for 100 yards and a touchdown here. If you want to save a little bit of money you could opt for Hockenson, who should also have a good game in this one. He and Kelce could easily be the top two tight ends on the week.
Justin Jefferson is as automatic as they come these days, but you will be paying up for someone who is also going to have a high ownership. In what looks to be a high-scoring game, throwing a dart at Jordan Addison could be the more savvy play. Kirk will have to throw the ball in this one and Addison could well come down with a touchdown.
I think you want to stick to the passing attacks here, in what could be a back-and-forth affair. Both teams are in the top 10 against the running back position and, with committees on both sides of the ball, the likes of Pacheco, Mattinson, Akers and McKinnon are risky, but not bad for tournament, plays.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Mahomes + Kelce
Cousins + Addison + Kelce
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Mahomes
Rice
Jefferson
Addison
Kelce
Hockenson
Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field
tournament)
Pacheco
McKinnon
The Lineup Build
I am very drawn to the Chiefs this week, who look ready to blow up against a poor secondary after disappointing against the Jets last week. Paying up for Mahomes and Kelce makes the rest of the lineup quite hard to compile, but I have my eye on a few cheaper options to build around them.
Another high-powered attack that catches my eye this week is the Miami Dolphins, who should tee off against the struggling New York Giants. Tyreek Hill is popular, so I’ll likely go to Waddle and may even add Achane or Mostert. Happy to play Waller on the other side.
On my yolo builds, I still like Burrow, but can’t get away from, gasp, Zach Wilson at less than 1% ownership. Wilson + Wilson (against Wilson) for the win. Sign me up for the Wilson Bowl.
FD
I already have a Burrow lineup I’m rolling out, despite the high ownership. I’ll add Achane and Waddle, giving me a non-traditional mini-stack. I’ll go to Pacheco here in case the Chiefs TDs run through the RBs, and also giving me leverage off the Mahomes lineups. I like Zay Flowers at his price and will play around with the rest.
DK
Going to Mahomes and Kelce here. I like the Lions DEF and Montgomery. Then I’m rounding out with cheap players with solid upside this week. We can look back at our lottery picks like Atwell, Robinson, and Pierce to save some money. Achane or Mostert is also solid in this build.
Yahoo
Richardson and Pittman look to have the best value on Yahoo, so they will be the focus here. I am a massive fan of Bijan, and his matchup is simply too good to ignore, so we splash for him here. To counteract his hefty price tag, I paired him with Kyren Williams who comes in at a good price with great potential due to his work in the passing game.
As I move through this build, I am shocked at the value that is available. Mark Andrews is coming in cheaper than Sam LaPorta this week, which makes that a no-brainer for me, stacking him with the Ravens defense, who are also a good price.
Another stack of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall (in the flex) comes next, both cheaper than they should be against a Denver defense that is hemorrhaging points this year.
After all of this, I am left with just enough money to stick Jaylen Waddle in as the final wide receiver. There are upside playmakers galore in this one.