DFS Building Blocks – Week 18

Ouch. If you’ve been following us for a few years you know we’ve targeted the Brady + Evans connection quite a bit, usually at low ownership. Similar to how we’ve talked about AJ Brown at low ownership this year, it was almost an auto-lock to put in Brady + Evans when they were at low ownership. Now, they haven’t deserved that auto-lock treatment this year, but in a week where we highlighted the Carolina defense was banged up, we probably should have returned to that stack, at least in our secondary lineup. Oh well.

Last week is a good week to think about our process vs results. We had a number of situations that didn’t turn out, but the process was solid. Let’s look at a few.

Justin Fields – if I told you Fields would have 15 points in the first quarter you’d probably lock him into your lineups. Alas, he leveled out there leaving a lot of points on the table.

Damien Harris – if you knew Damien Harris was not injured and was going to be near-zero ownership and knew Rhamondre Stevenson was going to be the highest owned RB at over 25% and you knew he’d only score 6 points, would you play Damien Harris instead? Probably. Now, we recognized that this matchup wasn’t extremely run friendly and ultimately Harris didn’t do much better, just missing a TD, but he still outscored Harris and had solid potential to get to 3x at near-zero ownership.

Jordan Mason – if I told you the 49ers would score 37 points against the Raiders and you were also expecting the 49ers defense to dominate them, would you expect the 49ers backup RB to get more usage? Probably so. Instead, it was a close game throughout and CMC played most of the game and put up the highest raw score at the RB position, justifying his high ownership. That said, even in a competitive game throughout, Mason still cashed in a TD. Had the 49ers defense done their part, Mason could have had a huge day at .2% ownership. When you have a correlated stud + dud pairing, it doesn’t really matter if the dud is a bust when the stud is also a bust. With the 49ers defense being a bust, we weren’t going to win first anyway, so Mason didn’t hurt us. But had the 49ers dominated, our correlated stud + dud pairing would have vaulted us up the leaderboard.

Tom Brady and Mike Evans – just like in the above examples where the result didn’t work out, but our process was solid, we have to recognize situations where our fading process worked, even though the players put up monster games. If you watched the first three quarters of this game you would’ve been happy you faded Brady and wouldn’t have been too pained that you skipped Evans. So just because they blew up in the fourth quarter, we shouldn’t kick ourselves too much. Our process was rational. Now, that said, we did show this as our lottery-pick lineup for that game… Brady + Evans + Godwin + Moore.

This is a reminder not to just blindly follow our picks. We recommend a lot of stacks and players that can pay off. If you’re leaning to one of the other stacks we recommend, go for it!

Initial Reactions

Surely everyone will go to Aaron Rodgers this week. Not much else looks too attractive at first glance. Might be a week to just eat the chalk. That game, even though flexed to Sunday night, is still part of the main slate on FD, but not on DK. Too bad Nathan Peterman is the king of interceptions as he’s taking on the poor Vikings secondary. He may pick up ownership simply because of his price, but he’s still probably not worth it on a run-first team.

Kittle against the Cardinals. Yes, please. Maybe we can even add our Mason + 49ers DEF pairing to it!

Do they let Justin Jefferson go for the record or, smartly, sit him?

49ers, Cowboys, Vikings… lot of good defense options playing backup QBs. I prefer taking whichever can be paired with an RB, without forcing the pairing in.

Game Overviews

Green Bay Packers *	Detroit Lions	-4.5(-110)	-225	26.75	49	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 09:20
Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers *	4.5(-110)	180	22.25	49	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 09:20

It’s tough to build around this game on FanDuel since we won’t know the motivation for the Lions until after the Seattle game. Green Bay needs to win. Lions win and they’re in, but if Seattle wins earlier in the day, the Lions are out and won’t need to play anyone, unless they do just to try to finally beat Green Bay. The smart bet here is the Green Bay running game but it’s a question of Jones or Dillon. If Lions need to win, I go Jones. If the Lions don’t have anything to play for, I go Dillon. So start with Jones, then it becomes easy to late swap to Dillon if you want. If the Lions have anything to play for, this is a great spot to build a full game stack with Goff + Chark, but if not, I still may play Chark but that’s about it from the Lions side.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Dillon + Chark

Goff + Jones + Chark

Jones + Chark

Rodgers + Lazard + Chark + Tonyan

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jones

Dillon

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Wright/Mitchell

Chicago Bears *	Minnesota Vikings	7.5(-110)	275	17.75	43	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00
Minnesota Vikings	Chicago Bears *	-7.5(-110)	-350	25.25	43	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00

Bears have nothing to play for. Minnesota sort of does, if they care about seeding. You need to think about this game as having one half of starters at most. Even if they have something to play for, the Bears may have more interceptions than they have yards this game! Now, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but Peterman is starting for the Bears and he’s been a turnover machine. Normally we’d target passing attacks against the Vikings DEF but this isn’t the week to do it (hello, lottery pick). Cook or Mattison is the same decision as Jones or Dillon above. Mattison + Vikings DEF isn’t a bad play here. And, with the Vikings having some motivation to play, I might jam in Justin Jefferson who needs about 230 yards to get to catch Calvin Johnson for the single-season record. My gut says they don’t force feed him the ball here but if they’re already playing starters and they get out to a quick lead, which they should, we might just get Justin Jefferson 15 targets.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Cousins + Jefferson

Mattison + Vikings DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jefferson

Mattison

Cook

Vikings DEF

Herbert

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Peterman + Jefferson + Kmet

Philadelphia Eagles *	New York Giants	-14(-110)	-1000	28.5	43	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25
New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles *	14(-110)	625	14.5	43	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25

Giants have nothing to play for, Eagles are playing for the one seed. We’re always stuck choosing between Hurts and the passing attack or Sanders. I’m shying away from Hurts more than most this week coming off the injury and expecting a relatively easy win here. But they still have to score points. Just pick the passing game or running game and go for it. Or skip this game completely, which is probably where I’m leaning. Take a shot on Matt Breida if you want some salary savings, but he’s not “that” cheap.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Hurts + Brown + Smith

Sanders + Eagles DER

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Brown

Smith

Sanders

Eagles DEF

Breida

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Buffalo Bills *	New England Patriots	-7(-110)	-300	24.75	42.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00
New England Patriots	Buffalo Bills *	7(-110)	240	17.75	42.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00

Bills have some reason to play still chasing the one seed. The Patriots win and they’re in. Still, this is sort of an ugly game with two solid defenses. The Bills should win this one but it’s not likely to be through a shootout. Maybe a first quarter scoring drive for Hamlin, then the game settles into a bit more of a defensive battle. Expect the Bills to need to attack the middle more this game and not need to open it up with Diggs that much. The Patriots will need to be passing to try to keep up. You can take a shot there if you want, but better games to target.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Davis

Knox

Allen

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Cook

Meyers

Jones + Cook + Meyers

New Orleans Saints *	Carolina Panthers	-3.5(100)	-175	23	42.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00
Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints *	3.5(-120)	145	19.5	42.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00

Mostly staying away from this game. Neither team has anything to play for but is is one of the tighter spreads and right in the middle of projected total. Could see Dalton + Shaheed. Could see either Foreman or Hubbard doing well, if either can get the bulk of the work. Could see Taysom Hill get more fun time.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Dalton + Shaheed

Dalton + Hubbard + Shaheed

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Foreman

Hubbard

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Dalton + Hubbard + Shaheed + Hill

Seattle Seahawks *	Los Angeles Rams	-6(-110)	-275	23.75	41.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25
Los Angeles Rams	Seattle Seahawks *	6(-110)	220	17.75	41.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25

Rams have nothing to play for, which has been the case for a while, so they should approach things the same as they have been. Seattle needs to win. Cam Akers is attractive. Walker is attractive. Metcalf is attractive. Higbee is somewhat attractive. I’m willing to play Cam Akers alone and maybe Metcalf alone. Higbee makes sense alone, but I’d rather play him in a stack of Akers + Higbee or even adding Mayfield who is auditioning again.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Akers + Metcalf

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Akers

Metcalf

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Mayfield + Akers + Metcalf + Higbee

Washington Commanders *	Dallas Cowboys	7(-110)	260	17	41	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25
Dallas Cowboys	Washington Commanders *	-7(-110)	-350	24	41	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25

Washington, perennially, has nothing to play for. And my Cowboys are gearing up for their annual first-round exit. The Cowboys DEF looks great here as Washington is starting a rookie QB. Not much else looks really attractive from the Cowboys, aside from our usual targeting of a RB + DEF, but hard to pick and not likely that Zeke or Pollard get a full game, but also not likely to be such a blowout that Malik Davis puts up a big score.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Cowboys DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Prescott + Hilton

Brown

Atlanta Falcons *	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-4(-110)	-200	22.25	40.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons *	4(-110)	165	18.25	40.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00

In most weeks this is a run-first matchup that ends in a quick, slow game (make sense?). Tom Brady and Mike Evan have looked like themselves for about one quarter this year, which happened to be last week, so maybe they try to build on that this week. We saw what they can do in one quarter, what if they play the entire first half this week?!

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Brady + Evans

Brady + Evans + Gage

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Gage

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Brady + Evans + London

Cincinnati Bengals *	Baltimore Ravens	-7(-110)	-350	23.75	40.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00
Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals *	7(-110)	260	16.75	40.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00

Who knows? The Bengals will be playing to win, probably, maybe. My early builds have me leaning toward Chase and Higgins and I can’t quit Andrews with Huntley, but this game could deflate pretty quickly with lower motivation to win. This is a game to either attack as if it’s all out or skip or just take some pieces from the Baltimore side.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Burrow + Chase + Higgins + Andrews

Huntley + Perine + Andrews

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Andrews

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pittsburgh Steelers *	Cleveland Browns	-2.5(-110)	-145	21.5	40.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00
Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers *	2.5(-110)	120	19	40.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00

What a dud. Najee likely will be popular but what if it’s the week the passing games finally get going? Watson looks like a Texan. Pickett, Pickens, Diontae. Tight spread, two teams with nothing to play for. Why not just throw it all over the place?

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Watson + Johnson + Cooper/Njoku

Watson + Harris + Cooper/Njoku

Pickett + Johnson/Pickens + Cooper/Njoku

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Harris

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

San Francisco 49ers *	Arizona Cardinals	-14(-110)	-1000	27.25	40.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25
Arizona Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers *	14(-110)	650	13.25	40.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25

49ers have some incentive to win. The Cardinals look more like the Cardinals of the 90s. I really wanted to play Kittle here, and still may, but with Deebo playing that hurts him some. Still, hard not to auto-lock a TE against the Cardinals. I wanted to play Mason but maybe they try to get Mitchell some work since he’s back. This is best as either a full 49ers stack or just skipping altogether.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Purdy + Dortch + Kittle

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kittle

Dortch

49ers DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Mason

Mason + 49ers DEF

Mitchell + 49ers DEF

Denver Broncos *	Los Angeles Chargers	-2.5(-115)	-150	21.25	40	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25
Los Angeles Chargers	Denver Broncos *	2.5(-105)	125	18.75	40	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 05:25

Let Russ cook one more time. I’m sure they’d all like to finish the season a high note so stack up the Broncos here if you want. And target some of the Chargers bench players if you want as well. Kelly, Carter, Palmer. It’s still a tough defense though, so I’m most likely to just stay away from this game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Wilson + Kelly + Jeudy + Albert O

Miami Dolphins *	New York Jets	-2(-110)	-130	20.25	38.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00
New York Jets	Miami Dolphins *	2(-110)	105	18.25	38.5	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00

The Dolphins still have a chance to make the playoffs, but they’re starting Thompson at QB. Jets are starting Flacco which bumps up Conklin and puts all the Jets WRs in the mix, but I won’t be going to them. This is a tight spread and could produce points, but it’s more likely both offenses struggle here and we get a low scoring game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Conklin

Jets DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Flacco + Wilson/Mostert + Conklin

Flacco + Wilson + Moore/Davis + Hill/Waddle

Thompson + Hill + Wilson/Moore/Davis

Indianapolis Colts *	Houston Texans	-2.5(-115)	-145	20.25	38	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00
Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts *	2.5(-105)	120	17.75	38	Sun, Jan 8, 2023 02:00

Zach Moss against the Texans who should be trying to lose this week. Moss is more attractive on DK than on FD but I still have some worry that Jackson gets more work this week and even some other players perhaps. That said, they did trade for Moss and maybe they let him get the full game. But Ehlinger starting for the Colts also puts a damper on things. There’s a reason this is the lowest projected game of the week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Moss + Colts DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Ehlinger + Pittman/Pierce

The Lineup Build

Lot of uncertainty around team and player motivation so we’re taking on more risk this week. Don’t go crazy with your bankroll.

FD

All over the place on FD this week. Have some builds built around the Packers since we can include that game here. Have a Brady build in case they do get a good chunk of the game with the starters. For now, going with Bengals and Ravens stack, but I may look to other spots with even more playing time certainty this week.

Burrow + Higgins + Andrews. I don’t mind starting with Huntley + Andrews here for some money savings. Dillon should be involved no matter what so I’ll start him at RB. I drop down to Kelly at the other RB hoping for a cheap price tag with expanded volume. Locking in Justin Jefferson and Vikings DEF. Then left picking out a WR and flex. I’ve looked at Diontae, Moore, Conklin, and some others. Still playing around with it.

DK

Locking in Justin Jefferson. Lot of good DEF options but I’ll go with the cheaper Vikings DEF against Peterman and the Bears. Akers and Moss at RB. I can go with Metcalf on the other side of Akers. Gage at WR who should be playing most of the game whether the starters sit or not. Purdy and Kittle to round things out, then I need to find a cheap flex.

Yahoo

Taking a different approach here as always. Yahoo pricing sets up to the make targeting the Cowboys passing game a good path. Dak + Gallup + Schultz. Akers and Harris at RB. Mattison + Vikings DEF. This is a nice hedge off our Justin Jefferson builds on the other sites. Then take your pick of two WRs with a good chunk of salary remaining. I like some Bengals here and also like Cooper opposite Harris.