DFS Building Blocks – Week 11

I’m going to start with a story about the showdown slates. I finally did it. I finally got last place. Literally last place. You’ve heard me talk about “if you’re not first, you’re last” and if you finish one spot out of the cash line in a tournament, you might as well finish last (it pays the same). This is a reminder that when you’re playing for first place in a tournament you need to be willing to make some uncomfortable plays or build around some uncomfortable games, of which there are plenty to choose from this week.

Now, that doesn’t mean you need to pick bad players – or, said better, players that have no reasonable chance to get a couple TDs. You use your same smart lineup building principles and you make some good ownership-driven pivots. We talked about Justin Jefferson being way too low owned for his upside last week just because he was in a “bad matchup”. That’s a smart play simply based on ownership level not matching talent level. Sure, it’s uncomfortable paying a premium salary for a WR playing against the Bills, but it’s not that far a reach. Smart pivots.

Back to the showdown slates. Those are all about ensuring your lineup tells a story, which is similar to full slates. My last place lineup was built around the Eagles running game a couple weeks ago. It didn’t have any hail-mary players, it just didn’t turn out to be the game script that happened. More recently, a showdown lineup built around the Titans controlling the game through their passing attack won first place. It didn’t have any hail-mary players, it simply told a different story. A story that was unpopular enough that it won 70k for first place, rather than splitting it with hundreds of other lineups.

Just like in middle school, be willing to be unpopular.

Initial Reactions

My first thought going into this week was Justin Fields might see the highest QB ownership levels we’ve seen this year, making David Montgomery a nice pivot. And dropping down to Dak at QB. But then Khalil Herbert went on IR and now everyone wants to play Montgomery, making Fields a nice pivot! Again. Imagine a dual-threat QB that just put up 40 points two weeks in a row in the second-highest projected game of the week is only the fourth highest owned QB, under 10%. Yes his price went up, but be willing to play the “unpopular” Justin Fields simply because of his potential upside.

I thought Barkley would have high ownership against the Texans, but that doesn’t appear to be the case, making him a strong play in a week with out a lot of great RB options. Especially if everyone is paying down to Montgomery at RB, it’s easy to be unique and pay up for Barkley. He hasn’t had a monster game yet but it’s his in range of outcomes this week.

Speaking of Barkley, remember our salary multipliers. On FD, we want a player that can score 3x his salary. For Barkley, that means he needs almost 30 points just to pay off for us. Montgomery only needs around 18 points. You can see why there is a big ownership difference now. But when you’re looking at players that are closer in salary you need to think about the difference in the scores they need. Right now, Mixon coming off a dud off a season then a surprise (and not repeatable) 5-TD performance is priced at 9,000 on FD and is projected for more than 15% ownership. Barkley, at 9,700 in one of the best RB matchups in football, is projected for less than 10%. Based on the 3x multiplier, Barkley only needs to score 2 more points than Mixon! I’ll take that bet. Dameon Pierce is projected for more than 25% ownership and, priced at 7,600 (7.6 x 3 = 22.8) needs 22.8 points. Barkley (9.7 x 3 = 29.1) needs 29.1. Ultimately, you have to decide for yourself whether you think the odds of players hitting their 3x compared to another player hitting 3x is worth the ownership tradeoff. Barkley vs Mixon seems pretty simple. Barkley vs Pierce, given matchup, is less simple but a bet I’m willing to take.

Think through these numbers and the difference in what the players need to score when building your lineups.

Game Overviews

Buffalo Bills *	Cleveland Browns	-7.5(-110)	-350	28.5	49.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00
Cleveland Browns	Buffalo Bills *	7.5(-110)	275	21	49.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00

Bills as fairly large favorites, playing “at home” in a dome this week. We’ve seen the Bills stick to passing even as favorites. It’s not inconceivable to think Josh Allen throws for four of five TDs this week. The field is heavy on Devin Singletary this week, making Allen a nice pivot. We survived our Singletary fade last week (and we’ve largely been Singletary truthers… at low ownership) despite him grabbing a very quick two TDs. He could have been on his way to a monster game. His price is still cheap, but even with those two quick TDs last week he’s still only hit 3x this price ONE time this season, and it wasn’t last week. Could it be this week, definitely, but at high ownership, I’d much rather pivot to an Allen stack, who is projected to come in lower owned than Russell Wilson and just barely above Mariota and Daniel Jones.

Diggs and Gabe Davis both seem to be going overlooked as well, making one or both a great stacking partner with Allen. If you can afford it. You could go a little riskier and take a shot on Knox at TE – all other TE options are equally unappealing, so you’re not risking as much there, but Knox hasn’t shown the TD upside he did last year.

I don’t have a lot of interest in the Browns side of things. Cooper is always in play and would make sense if you’re stacking the Bills, but I’d be comfortable leaving a Browns player off of the stack. That would actually open up the Bills DEF as a stacking partner to Allen and Diggs/Davis. If you go to the chalk play with Singletary, I’d want to also play the Bills DEF to get some leverage on Singletary’s high ownership.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Allen + Davis

Allen + Diggs

Allen + Diggs/Davis + Cooper

Allen + Diggs/Davis + Bills DEF

Singletary + Bills DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Allen

Davis

Singletary

Cooper

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Peoples-Jones

Brissett + Singletary + Cooper/Peoples-Jones

McKenzie

Knox

Allen + Chubb + Diggs/Davis/Knox

Hunt

Atlanta Falcons *	Chicago Bears	-3(-110)	-165	26	49	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00
Chicago Bears	Atlanta Falcons *	3(-110)	135	23	49	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00

I like Fields at surprisingly low ownership, although this isn’t the greatest rushing matchup for him, so I prefer playing him stacked with a pass catcher. I wanted to go Mooney thinking he’d be low owned with Kmet dominating the last couple weeks, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. I’ll stack Fields and Kmet until it doesn’t work. This could be the week the party is over, but with both of them with such low ownership and Montgomery at almost 40% ownership, I’ll take my chances.

Taking the Fields and Kmet side instead of the Montgomery side actually sets up nicely to tell the story of a shootout with Patterson on the other side putting up a big game. I feel better about that combination than I do with Montgomery and the Falcons passing game. If going to Montgomery I’d definitely stack it up with London, Pitts, or even Mariota + London/Pitts.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Fields + Patterson + Kmet

Fields + Patterson + Mooney

Montgomery + London

Montgomery + Pitts

Mariota + Montgomery + London/Pitts

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Fields

Montgomery

Patterson

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Allgeier

Claypool

Mariota + Patterson + Montgomery

Patterson + Montgomery

Montgomery + Bears DEF

Patterson + Falcons DEF

Minnesota Vikings *	Dallas Cowboys	1.5(-110)	100	23.5	48.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 05:25
Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings *	-1.5(-110)	-120	25	48.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 05:25

This is the last game (outside of Barkley coming up) before things start looking real bleak. Both teams coming off shootouts. Dallas coming off a disappointing (but predicted) loss. High over/under. Tight spread. This could definitely be a shootout, or it could be one of those “definitely going to be a shootout” games that disappoints. I’ll probably tackle in both ways. If only playing one lineup, I’ll approach as a potential shootout, looking to be unique in how I build around it though.

My initial build – before looking at ownership – featured Dak + Cook + Gallup (and has Montgomery). On weeks where there are so many bad games, I tend to stick to my original line of thinking. But because of the significant ownership on Montgomery, I’ll definitely play two main lineups this week. Probably one built around this Dak stack and one built around the Fields stack discussed above. Everyone playing this game is going to be loading up on Lamb and Jefferson, so my interest is more in the secondary WRs and Cook. Pollard is also looking popular this week, but he’s priced up and I’ll stick to the lower-owned pieces. Schultz is also in play and isn’t seeing giant ownership.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Dak + Cook + Gallup

Dak + Gallup + Thielen

Dak + Cook/Thielen + Schultz

Dak + Cook + Lamb

Dak + Lamb + Jefferson

Cousins + Jefferson + Lamb

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Cook

Gallup

Schultz

Thielen

Pollard

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Elliott

Cousins + Cook + Lamb/Gallup

Hockenson

New York Giants *	Detroit Lions	-3(-110)	-165	24	45	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00
Detroit Lions	New York Giants *	3(-110)	135	21	45	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00

Saquon is expensive, but worth it. We don’t have a lot of great options this week, so if Saquon can put up 30 or even find his way to a monster game, he’ll give us a big advantage. I actually like Daniel Jones this week too, but that was when I thought Saquon would carry higher ownership. If Saquon puts up a big game, it’s going to be like Jefferson last week, leaving us thinking we overthinked it and should have just played him at low ownership. If you threw salary out the window (which obviously we can’t do) and just said Montgomery at 40% owned or Saquon at 10% owned, we’d probably all pick Saquon of course.

The natural way to come back is with St. Brown, but I’m probably going to go a different route and pair Saquon with the Giants DEF. If Saquon puts up a monster performance it could be through a shootout where St. Brown also puts up a big game, but it’s equally likely and perhaps more likely that it comes through the Giants DEF giving him a bunch of short fields and some cheap TDs.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Barkley + Giants DEF

Barkley + St. Brown

Goff + Barkley + St. Brown

Jones + Slayton + St. Brown

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley

Williams

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Wright/Mitchell

Goff + Barkley + Wright/Mitchell

Jones + Williams + Slayton

Indianapolis Colts *	Philadelphia Eagles	6.5(-105)	240	19.25	45	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00
Philadelphia Eagles	Indianapolis Colts *	-6.5(-115)	-300	25.75	45	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00

Do the Eagles come out angry? Will it matter? The Colts have a decent defense and the Eagles lost Goedert. And, on the Colts side, they should run Taylor until his good leg falls off. That may mean upside for Taylor, but it most likely also means a slower-paced game that doesn’t see a ton of points. I’d play this with Taylor as an expensive pivot away from the RB chalk. Or, I’d play it as an angry Eagles stack with Hurts + Smith/Brown. Or even angry Eagles DEF.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Taylor + Smith

Hurts + Taylor + Smith/Brown

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Taylor

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Ryan + Pittman + Smith/Brown

Sanders + Eagles DEF

Taylor + Colts DEF

Baltimore Ravens *	Carolina Panthers	-13(-110)	-750	27.25	41.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00
Carolina Panthers	Baltimore Ravens *	13(-110)	525	14.25	41.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00

Ravens dominate through Lamar Jackson. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. Andrews is back and could immediately get back to scoring TDs in bunches, but I’ll likely play this as Jackson + Duvernay, assuming Andrews is more of a decoy. With so much uncertainty in the Ravens running game, a Jackson stack is a nice pivot away from all the Allen, Dak, and Fields lineups, although Lamar is shaping up to be popular, so I’ll likely just stay away from this game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jackson + Andrews

Jackson + Duvernay

Edwards + Ravens DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Andrews

Edwards

Duvernay

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jackson + Duvernay/Andrews + Moore

Foreman + Panthers DEF

Foreman

Jackson + Foreman + Duvernay + Andrews

Denver Broncos *	Las Vegas Raiders	-2.5(-115)	-145	22	41.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 05:05
Las Vegas Raiders	Denver Broncos *	2.5(-105)	120	19.5	41.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 05:05

Second tightest spread of the week. Could this game turn into a shootout? Maybe. In a week of ugly games and needing to feel a little unpopular, you could definitely stack this game up. Dulcich is a good standalone candidate but he’s not sneaking up on anyone. Sutton should get a lot of work. Jacobs and Adams are always in play as standalone plays, but not priorities for me given the matchup. Although both come in low owned. Adams at under 10% ownership sounds a lot like Jefferson last week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Carr + Jacobs + Adams + Sutton/Dulcich

Jacobs + Raiders DEF

Jacobs + Adams + Raiders DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jacobs

Adams

Dulcich

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Wilson + Jacobs + Sutton/Dulcich

Wilson + Sutton/Dulcich + Adams

Gordon

Gordon + Broncos DEF

Pittsburgh Steelers *	Cincinnati Bengals	3.5(-105)	165	18.75	41	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 05:25
Cincinnati Bengals	Pittsburgh Steelers *	-3.5(-115)	-200	22.25	41	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 05:25

Same as the game above. You could stack this up focusing on the Bengals or you could totally avoid it. With Watt back on the Steelers DEF and no Chase, I’ll mostly stay away. Easy to see some lottery-pick lineups built around this game though.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Higgins

Boyd

Steelers DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Burrow + Higgins + Boyd + Pickens/Johnson

Burrow + Mixon + Higgins/Boyd + Pickens/Johnson

Pickett + Pickens/Johnson + Higgins/Boyd

Can swap Freiermuth or Hurst into any of the above spots.

Harris + Steelers DEF

Houston Texans *	Washington Commanders	3(-110)	135	18.75	40.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00
Washington Commanders	Houston Texans *	-3(-110)	-165	21.75	40.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00

We’re scraping the bottom of the barrel now. Until Washington’s upset of the Eagles this game would’ve seemed really bad. It’s still really bad, just not as bad. And we still have the awful run defense of the Texans, so perhaps there’s something here. The public is all over Pierce in this one, which just doesn’t make sense. Washington has a good defense and has found some offensive rhythm, which should force the Texans into passing more. Pierce does get involved there some, but he should not be 20% owned. This is likely the public leaning into workhorse RBs on a slate that is short of them. And at 7,600 it’s not like Pierce is cheap. So, I’m fading Pierce, instead going to Brian Robinson. Gibson has been getting a lot of passing work, but that doesn’t figure to be the gamescript this week. With the best running matchup in the league this week, I’ll take the salary savings and take a chance on Robinson getting some TDs. If you’re not first, you’re last. We’ve also had some success targeting McLaurin when others weren’t, but I’m going to stay focused on the Commanders’ running game here. I don’t think I’ll play any Texans pieces.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Robinson + Washington DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Robinson

Gibson

McLaurin

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Heinicke + Pierce + McLaurin

Robinson/Gibson + Collins/Cooks

New Orleans Saints *	Los Angeles Rams	-3(-105)	-150	21	39	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00
Los Angeles Rams	New Orleans Saints *	3(-115)	125	18	39	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00

Kamara is expected to be popular, which makes sense, in theory. He should keep getting a lot of passing work, but, in general, this just seems like an ugly game to avoid. I’d have more interest in Kamara if his ownership was much lower. The Rams are a mess right now and I’ll just stay away, although you could take a flier on any of the WRs, if you can find one.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Kamara + Saints DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Saints DEF

Rams DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Higbee

Van Jefferson

Olave

Dalton + Kamara + Van Jefferson

Juwan Johnson

Rams RBs

New England Patriots *	New York Jets	-3.5(-105)	-165	21	38.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00
New York Jets	New England Patriots *	3.5(-115)	140	17.5	38.5	Sun, Nov 20, 2022 02:00

What a pitiful total. Two teams with solid defenses, but I’m definitely leaning to the Patriots side, who are somehow underdogs. We’ve seen what the Patriots can do to young QBs and we’ve seen Wilson make mistakes in the past. Harris is back, which may draw some ownership off of Stevenson. If going here, I like Stevenson + Patriots DEF, with Harris as the lottery pick. You could take a shot on a Jets pass catcher or Parker or Thornton, but I’m just going to stick to Pats RB + DEF or bust.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Stevenson + Patriots DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Stevenson

Thornton

Parker

G Wilson

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Harris

Robinson

Jones + Robinson + Thornton/Parker

Wilson + Stevenson + Wilson

The Lineup Build

This week is similar to when we had Pollard projected for near 50% ownership. Play one lineup with Montgomery, and play one lineup without him. In the lineup without him, naturally it makes sense to make that a Fields stack.

FD

I’m starting with Montgomery, then building around Dak + Cook + Gallup. I’ll add London opposite Montgomery. I’ll add Barkley + Giants DEF. I’ll add Davis as a standalone play getting leverage off the Singletary ownership. And I’ll add Dulcich who is relatively highly owned but just missed a long TD last week. I’m okay if you want to move away from Saquon and go to Jacobs instead giving correlation with a Dulcich big game.

I’ll build my other lineup around Fields + Patterson + Kmet. I’ll go to Singletary and pair with Cooper to offset that ownership some. I’ll keep Gallup but add Thielen instead of Cook. I’ll keep Barkley + Giants DEF here. On the defensive side, this is similar to a few weeks ago when we played the Lions DEF because there were no obvious plays. Might as well drop down in salary and get some ownership leverage.

DK

I’ll start with Fields + Pitts here, given ownership differences between the two sites. I’ll add Cook + Gallup. I’ll add Singletary here at lower ownership. I’ll add Stevenson + Patriots DEF. And I’ll fill my roster out with Duvernay and Shenault (who finally found the end zone when he wasn’t on the main slate).

Yahoo

Perhaps my favorite lineup across the three sites. Going to the Raiders stack here. Carr + Jacobs + Adams + Dulcich. Singletary is cheap. Robinson + Washington DEF is cheap. That leaves me enough salary to add Lamb + Jefferson stack.