DFS Building Blocks – Week 10

Both our primary and secondary lineups had the pieces we needed to cash last week. We had Fields’ monster performance at tiny ownership and, spoiler alert, his ownership this week isn’t as high as I thought it would be. Great to be a week early on a player like that.

Last week was a great example of the pivots and leverage that we talk about. Fields was low-owned, Miami defense was highly owned. Fields was direct leverage against the Miami ownership. We didn’t end up with Aaron Jones on our roster, so there were two possible scenarios: 1) Aaron Jones explodes and we lose anyway because we didn’t have him. 2) Aaron Jones is a bust. In scenario two, how can we benefit from that? We can play the Lions DEF. That’s just what we did and it paid off. We talked about the same scenario with Deon Jackson vs the New England DEF. In our secondary lineup, we faded Jackson so it made sense to play New England DEF. Then we made our lineup even more correlated by playing Stevenson. That combo in our secondary lineup, paired with building around the Raiders was profitable. Too bad we didn’t get those two lineups combined into one monster lineup. We had the right pieces, hopefully you got creative and found your way to something combining all the above pieces.

Initial Reactions

Justin Fields, again. We don’t need him to score 40 points, but he’s been putting up 3x his price and he’ll either be super owned or he’ll be reasonable given the Lions defensive performance against Green Bay. And people may not want to “chase points”. I’ll likely be on the side of we’re not chasing points with Fields, we’re still catching him on the upside of his career.

Barkley stands out as a player that should be incredibly high owned.

I like a few bounce-back candidates this week. Singletary. Aaron Jones.

Game Overviews

Kansas City Chiefs *	Jacksonville Jaguars	-9.5(-110)	-450	30	50.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00
Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs *	9.5(-110)	350	20.5	50.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00

Highest over/under thanks to the Chiefs being the only team projected to score 30 points this week. This is driving a lot of people to Mahomes, which is never a bad idea, but the Jacksonville defense, while up and down recently, has shown some promise this year. I’m not sure I’ll be able to find the salary to play a Chiefs based lineup, but I may force it in as my secondary lineups. Swapping from Fields to Mahomes and playing Mahomes naked is a reasonable play here if you want. But Mahomes + Kelce is always strong if you can afford that build. I like Etienne on the other side who should be involved whether the Jags are playing from ahead or behind. Kirk is playable. You can take a shot a different Jags WR too.

Back to the KC side, Hardman, who has been getting TDs, is out. That doesn’t give us any more clarity on who to play, but it does mean a riskier play like Toney or Watson should have increased opportunity for us at a cheap enough price that we can fill out our roster with a piece of this game, particularly in an Etienne + cheap KC WR stack. My preference is Toney who we know has the upside but just needs the opportunity. This could be the week he makes a splash again.

If Jacksonville can keep up, watch out for fireworks here.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Etienne + Toney

Mahomes + Etienne + Kelce

Mahomes + Etienne + JuJu + Kelce

Mahomes + Etienne + MVS + Kelce

Lawrence + Kirk + Kelce

Lawrence + Etienne + Kelce

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Etienne

Mahomes

Kelce

JuJu

Kirk

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Watson

The Joneses

CEH/McKinnon/Pacheco

Lawrence + CEH + Kirk

CEH + Chiefs DEF

Miami Dolphins *	Cleveland Browns	-3.5(-110)	-190	26.5	49.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00
Cleveland Browns	Miami Dolphins *	3.5(-110)	155	23	49.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00

Second highest over/under with a team that gets into shootouts playing against a team that wants to run the ball. If the Browns can run the ball, they could shorten the game and not give us the shootout we’d need here given the high pricing around the Dolphins pieces. The Browns are also a nice target to run against, so we could see more of Wilson and Mostert, but good luck guessing the split and who gets the scores. If forcing a Mahomes stack, I actually like adding Hunt and Wilson or Mostert as cheap pieces to this game, both being involved in more of a passing battle. I don’t Mind Hunt as a one-off play. Hill is expected to be highly owned as he probably should be every week, but in a potentially slower game that features the running game more, we could find our way to a pivot like Gesicki and hope he can cash in a TD or two. On the Browns side, Njoku is out so Harrison Bryant makes sense as a riskier player with opportunity. And if you want to take the most logical approach of Dolphins score a bunch, Cooper and Peoples-Jones are in play as well, with my preference getting the salary savings of Peoples-Jones. And, one last point, Waddle once again is tremendous ownership leverage off of Hill.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Tua + Hunt + Waddle

Hunt + Waddle

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Chubb

Hunt

Hill

Waddle

Gesicki

Bryant

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Brissett + Hunt + Hill/Waddle

Brissett + Wilson/Mostert + Cooper/Peoples-Jones (+ Bryant)

Tua + Hunt + Hill + Waddle/Gesicki

Tua + Hunt + Hill + Waddle + Cooper/Peoples-Jones

Chicago Bears *	Detroit Lions	-3(-105)	-150	25.75	48.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00
Detroit Lions	Chicago Bears *	3(-115)	125	22.75	48.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00

Here we are. The game we need to think about a little. As I said already, I think Fields is on the upswing still and I’ll likely be playing him in my main. But do we play him alone? What if he busts? I’m okay playing Fields naked again with St. Brown filling the stack. But I’ve also been finding my way down to Mooney simply because of the salary I have left. What I like about Mooney is that Kmet got all the TDs last week, meaning we could get some Mooney regression. Playing against a team that we just “know” the Bears are going to run against, maybe they actually surprise and pass a little more. The Lions will also “know” the Bears want to run it. We’re, of course, assuming Fields eats up all the running opportunities again, but Montgomery and Herbert are both strong plays as well, especially if building around Mahomes and fading Fields. Very similar to our leverage discussion at the start, one of those would almost become a must-play if you’re not building around Fields. Herbert coming in cheaper and with a large ownership discount to Montgomery.

I’ll mainly stick to St. Brown for the Lions, but I do feel like a sneaky Swift play again. I even built one of my Mahomes lineups with a Swift + Lions DEF stack. Even after scoring, Mitchell at TE for DET is still very cheap.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Fields + St. Brown

Fields + St. Brown + Mooney

Fields + St. Brown + Kmet

Fields + Swift + Mooney

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Fields

St. Brown

Montgomery

Herbert

Swift

Williams

Kmet

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Raymond

Mitchell

Goff + Montgomery/Herbert + St. Brown

Goff + St. Brown + Mooney

Green Bay Packers *	Dallas Cowboys	4.5(-110)	180	19.75	44	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 05:25
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers *	-4.5(-110)	-225	24.25	44	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 05:25

Even as bad as we expected the Packers to be with no WRs, it’s still impressive how bad they’ve been. And now they get the Cowboys DEF. There is always potential for a classic Cowboys letdown game here, but I’ll mostly just stay away from this one, especially the Packers side. My favorite play is Pollard + Cowboys DEF, as Pollard is involved in the entire game, but even more so if they Cowboys get out to a big lead and Elliott rests his knee more. With Elliott banged up we could see the Cowboys lean on the pass more too, but we know they want to run and this game figures to be slow-paced.

You can take a shot on the Packers WRs, but you’re just guessing and hoping. Aaron Jones is banged up and I can think of plenty of times he’s left the game early after trying to play with an injury. I still like him in a ‘Packers surprise’ lineup, but hard to trust it.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Pollard + Cowboys DEF

Pollard + Lazard

Dak + Gallup

Dak + Gallup + Schultz

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pollard

Gallup

Schultz

Lazard[

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Elliott

Jones

Rodgers + Watson/Toure

Jones + Packers DEF

Buffalo Bills *	Minnesota Vikings	-3(-115)	-155	23	43	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00
Minnesota Vikings	Buffalo Bills *	3(-105)	125	20	43	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00

Is it time for a Devin Singletary surprise game? What about Dawson Knox? With Allen hurt and potentially out, the Bills could lean on the run game here. Even if Keenum plays, we could see more dump-offs to Singletary and more short passing game work for Knox. We still don’t know what Hines’ role will be though, so if playing Singletary, I’m betting on more pure rushing work him and him cashing in on some TDs that maybe Allen would have run in if he were playing.

On the Vikings side, Justin Jefferson is just screaming low-owned. Yes, they’re playing the Bills in Buffalo. Yes, Jefferson is expensive. But he’s projected for under 5% ownership. That just seems too low. I’m not sure I’ll be about to fit him in, but he’s nice pivot away from Tyreek Hill and makes a nice mini-stack with Singletary. Thielen is right next to him in ownership at a much lower price and we’re still waiting for one of his multi-TD games. If going the Jefferson route, it also makes sense to look at Cousins at tiny ownership. All the attention is on the Bills QB situation and people seem to be forgetting what the Jets just did to the Bills. It’s not inconceivable for the Cousins to lean into their strength and pass their way to victory here.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Singletary + Jefferson/Thielen

Cousins + Singletary + Jefferson

Cousins + Singletary + Jefferson + Thielen

Cousins + Jefferson + Diggs

Cook + Vikings DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Singletary

Jefferson

Thielen

Davis

Knox

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Keenum + Diggs + Jefferson

Keenum + Davis + Jefferson

Las Vegas Raiders *	Indianapolis Colts	-4.5(-110)	-210	22.75	41	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 05:05
Indianapolis Colts	Las Vegas Raiders *	4.5(-110)	170	18.25	41	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 05:05

Do the Colts come out excited to play or do they come out still knowing that the owner is the problem? If Irsay is the problem, then we shouldn’t see a huge bounce moving to Jeff Saturday, but we may see the Colts play up a bit more with a former Colts stud as their new coach. And what does Saturday do? Does he lean into Taylor? Does he have some magic with the passing game? He did elevate the assistant QB coach to his offensive play-caller. Hard to say what will happen here.

On the Raiders side, they’re really banged up with Waller and Renfrow on IR. We could see them get back to leaning on Jacobs or they could keep forcing Adams the ball. The Colts are still relatively tough to run on, so I’d lean to a Taylor + Adams stack here. But I wouldn’t be opposed to a Raiders surprise lineup that features Jacobs + Adams.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Taylor + Adams

Jacobs + Adams

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Taylor

Jacobs

Adams

Moreau

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Ehlinger + Jacobs + Pittman/Pierce/Campbell

Carr + Jacobs + Adams + Pittman/Pierce/Campbell

Carr + Taylor + Adams/Moreau

New York Giants *	Houston Texans	-4.5(-110)	-210	22.5	40.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00
Houston Texans	New York Giants *	4.5(-110)	170	18	40.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00

Saquon time. If the game has time for him to get there. Both teams should be expected to lean into the run which should shorten the game. But sometimes these games surprise and see a passing shootout. I actually went into the week thinking Daniel Jones would be a nice pivot off of Barkley, but with Barkley just inside the top-ten in ownership, I’ll fire him up hoping for a monster game against the worst run defense in the NFL. It’s an obvious, but expensive spot, which is going lower owned because people are trying to force in Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill.

On the other side, Pierce is projected as the top owned RB on the slate. He gets lot of opportunities and gets passing game work, but he’s an easy fade for me at 30% ownership. I’d much rather pay up for Saquon with the ownership discount. In fact, we have another nice spot for a double leverage play, pairing Saquon with the Giants DEF.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Barkley + Giants DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley

Giants DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley + Cooks/Collins

Jones + Slayton/Golladay

Jones + Pierce + Slayton/Golladay

Mills + Barkley + Cooks

Los Angeles Rams *	Arizona Cardinals	-3(-105)	-150	21.75	40.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 05:25
Arizona Cardinals	Los Angeles Rams *	3(-115)	125	18.75	40.5	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 05:25

I’m mostly staying away from this game. Rondale Moore keeps popping up as available to fill out my rosters and I could end up there hoping he breaks a big play, but I definitely won’t prioritize it. This just feels like an ugly game. If Murray is healthy and they put up some quick points and the Rams somehow get it together this week, it could outperform, but I like other spots better this week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Moore

Hopkins

Kupp

Rams DEF

Cardinals DEF

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Conner

Akers

Higbee

Stafford + Conner + Kupp

Murray + Hopkins/Moore + Kupp

Pittsburgh Steelers *	New Orleans Saints	1.5(-110)	105	19.25	40	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00
New Orleans Saints	Pittsburgh Steelers *	-1.5(-110)	-125	20.75	40	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00

I don’t love this game but it has a tight spread and we’ve seen the Saints put up points. We’ve also seen Pickett has some success. Pickens sticks out as available to fill out my roster. I even found my way to the Steelers DEF on one of my Mahomes stacks. You can build lottery-pick lineups stacking this game up because of the tight spread, I’m more than likely to leave it alone. 40-pt total.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pickens

Diontae Johnson

Steelers DEF

Kamara

Olave

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pickett + Kamara + Johnson + Pickens

Dalton + Kamara + Olave + Johnson/Pickens

Tennessee Titans *	Denver Broncos	-3(-105)	-150	21	39	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00
Denver Broncos	Tennessee Titans *	3(-115)	125	18	39	Sun, Nov 13, 2022 02:00

39 points, which makes sense as the Titans should just run Henry until the clock runs out. What does make sense, despite knowing that’s the approach, is that Henry is projected for 30% ownership. I love playing Henry… when he’s forgotten by the field at around 10% ownership. I’ll fade him this week. Barkley has a similar price, better matchup, slightly better game total. Barkley also has slightly better competition for opportunities, but not so much so that we should be eating the higher ownership with Henry.

You can take a lottery-pick approach to this game if want, building around the passing game instead of Henry. Dulcich is in play, but his price is rising.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Dulcich

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Woods

Jeudy

Wilson + Henry + Dulcich

Wilson + Henry + Jeudy

Tannehill + Woods + Jeudy/Dulcich

Henry + Titans DEF

The Lineup Build

I feel pretty locked in on my Fields in my primary, Mahomes overstack in my secondary, and Cousins overstack as a third if I make one.

FD

I’m starting with Fields + St. Brown. Barkley + Giants DEF. I’ll add exposure to the Chiefs game with Etienne and I’ll come back with Toney. I’ll add Mooney because it just makes sense with the salary and stack with Fields. I’ll add Gesicki at TE, pivoting away from the Hill ownership. I’ll add Hunt on the other side.

You can change a lot of this lineup to suit your tastes. Can easily move up from Mooney. Can move up from Toney. Can drop down more at DEF and move up at WR or RB. Can move down from Hunt to Singletary (which I may end up doing anyway). Lot of viable TE options in the range of Gesicki.

DK

I’ll be starting this with a similar core. Fields + St. Brown. Etienne + Toney. I’ll go to Higbee at TE and come back with Moore. I’ll keep Hunt. Then I’ll finish with Taylor + Colts DEF.

Yahoo

We’ll go Mahomes stack here. Mahomes + Kelce + Toney + Etienne + Kirk. We’ll add Pierce here. St. Brown. Gallup. Steelers DEF. You can drop down from Kirk and get stronger at DEF if you prefer.