DFS Building Blocks – Week 8

In progress. Late today because of some medical issues; individual site lineups posted Sunday morning.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Lineups posted at the bottom.

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A nice week last week with our player pool creating a lot of good options. Our Mahomes, Rodgers, and Brady stacks all cashed nicely, with our Mahomes stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings having a real chance at the top prize.

And we locked in the top DEF, Dallas, in all our lineups at a ridiculously low ownership rate. That’s how you DFS.

We narrow our player pool, build smart lineups, and the luck will follow. Let’s do it again.

I want to touch on another concept we’ve talked about some in the past, but not to this degree recently. We’ve talked about pivots – moving from a highly owned player to a player with similar upside at lower ownership. And we’ve talked about leverage – moving from a team’s WR to the team’s RB, knowing that if the RB has a big game, it’s less likely that the WR has a big game. When we can move to a lower-owned RB we can get leverage against a higher-owned WR on the same team. Sometimes, we can get double leverage…

Last week, as ownership projections tightened up on Sunday, Chase and Mixon stood out as both being near the top of their position ownership lists, while Hayden Hurst was projected to be low-owned and had a nice matchup also. If we play Hayden Hurst (I did) and he gets two TDs, he’s taking points away from all the people that own Chase and Mixon. Now, it just so happened that Chase crushed again last week, Mixon did okay but underwhelmed, and Hurst didn’t crush us, but didn’t have a big game. That’ll happen, but it’s important we keep looking for these leverage opportunities. I’ll start identifying these more on Sunday mornings when we have a better sense of the ownership.

Initial Reactions

Sam Ehlinger is taking over for Matt Ryan and he’s min-priced. Check out all the names you have to pass to get to him. He’s got rushing upside and is viable this week.

Ezekiel Elliott projected out and Pollard is too cheap. He may be the most popular play of the year so far, but he’ll be worth it. This will be a great week to build one lineup with Pollard and one without. Or, a nice easy way to get some differentiation is just pair him with the Cowboys DEF, which, for some reason, still gets no DFS respect. Hopefully the Bears playing well last week will keep people off of Dallas DEF again.

This feels like a great week to pay up for Derrick Henry, but we’ll see what his ownership looks like.

Not a lot of attractive games this week, but let’s see what we’ve got.

Game Overviews

Detroit Lions *	Miami Dolphins	3.5(-110)	155	24	51.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00
Miami Dolphins	Detroit Lions *	-3.5(-110)	-190	27.5	51.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00

Top game of the week per Vegas. Hill, Waddle, St. Brown, Hockenson, Mostert all in play but overall I’m just meh on this one. I’ve been more willing to miss the Detroit bandwagon games, but there are some explosive players in this game and you can certainly stack around this if you want. If going here, Goff is coming in way lower owned than Tua. Mostert is pretty popular, so I’d rather go to the passing game here and find some lower-owned RBs instead. Hill and St. Brown may be the top-two owned WRs, making Waddle an okay pivot, although he’s really popular also. Hockenson stands out as nice leverage off of St. Brown. Same for Gesicki or Sherfield is nice leverage off of Hill and Waddle. A Goff + Waddle + Hockenson is good leverage way to play this game. Or just overstack it with four or five players from this game and see what you can build.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Goff + Waddle + Hockenson

Tua + Mostert + Hill + St. Brown

Tua + Hill + St. Brown

Tua + Hill + Waddle + St. Brown

Tua + St. Brown + Gesicki

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hill

Waddle

St. Brown

Mostert

Hockenson

Gesicki

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Edmonds

Sherfield

Wilson

Williams

Goff + Sherfield + Hockenson

Goff + Mostert + Sherfield + Hockenson

New Orleans Saints *	Las Vegas Raiders	1.5(-110)	100	24	49.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00
Las Vegas Raiders	New Orleans Saints *	-1.5(-110)	-120	25.5	49.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00

The Raiders bring some excitement with Jacobs putting up some monster performances lately. I’ll likely fade again simply because of ownership and the high score he needs to pay off. That said, the matchup is fine and he could very well have another big game. Perfectly fine if you want to go here. Do we really feel good about playing the Saints? Kamara is a nice option, but he’s also looking pretty popular. Both passing attacks appear to be the leverage plays. Davante Adams is expected to be lower owned than Olave, thanks to the Jacobs ownership. This seems like a nice week to take a shot on Adams, although I may not. If going to Kamara or Olave, I’d stack with Dalton at less than 2% ownership. Dalton + Kamara + Adams would be unique but still have a lot of upside.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jacobs + Kamara

Kamara + Adams

Dalton + Kamara + Adams

Dalton + Jacobs + Olave

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jacobs

Kamara

Adams

Olave

Waller

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Renfrow

Smith

Johnson

Minnesota Vikings *	Arizona Cardinals	-3.5(-110)	-190	26.25	49	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00
Arizona Cardinals	Minnesota Vikings *	3.5(-110)	155	22.75	49	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00

This one feels more interesting than the first two. With Hopkins back the Cardinals, who we’ve largely avoided, now seem more capable of getting into some shootouts. And we have some clear places we can look on both sides. We got our Thielen TD recently, but are still waiting for his two-TD game. The Cardinals are solid against WRs, but Thielen should find some spots to get open and could be the main redzone target this week. Irv Smith has the same appeal and can be stacked. This game has some popularity, but not as much as DET vs MIA. Jefferson and Hopkins are both popular. Thielen is top-ten. Irv Smith is also near the top of TE ownership. Our opportunity here is to overstack the game to get ownership leverage. Moore is relatively low owned compared to the others. Ertz seems too high given the presence of Hopkins now. Kyler is more popular than Cousins. This could be a Cousins + Thielen + Hopkins + Smith lineup. Or perhaps a Moore + Thielen mini-stack. But does anyone remember Dalvin Cook? He was good. He’s not getting the same role he used to, but we care about leverage here and he’s a player that we know has big upside in a matchup that’s not great for WRs in a high total game with a pretty tight spread. He’s probably the game theory play to make here.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Cousins + Thielen + Hopkins + Smith

Cousins + Cook + Hopkins

Murray + Cook + Hopkins

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hopkins

Thielen

Smith

Moore

Murray

Cook

Benjamin

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Cook + Vikings DEF

Cousins + Cook + Thielen

Seattle Seahawks *	New York Giants	-3(-110)	-160	23.75	44.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 04:25
New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks *	3(-110)	135	20.75	44.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 04:25

We’ve got some options here. Barkely as usual. Walker. Both in top-ten of ownership though. Playing them together would be a unique approach that also helps lower the individual ownership impact of each. Daniel Jones seems like a nice pay-up pivot from the Ehlinger ownership. Robinson still isn’t seeing his ownership too high, but he’s in the middle of the pack.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Barkley + Walker

Jones + Lockett (Jones get some rushing TDs and Barkley and Robinson bust)

Smith + Barkley + Lockett

Jones + Walker + Robinson

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley

Walker

Robinson

Lockett

Jones

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Slayton

Fant

Dallas Cowboys *	Chicago Bears	-10(-110)	-450	26.25	42.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00
Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys *	10(-110)	350	16.25	42.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00

Hello Cowboys DEF. More popular than last week, but still under double digits, with Washington and Philadelphia higher. I love paying up for a top-tier defense that gives me ownership leverage. I’d rather have more leverage, but it’s still plenty to make this viable.

Hello Tony Pollard. The chalk of the year, but worth it. He’s priced so low that he’s approached 3x this price a couple times this year as the 1B option to Zeke. Now he gets Zeke’s share and his. Watch out for a rogue Cowboys RB to vulture a TD, but Pollard should be a lock to get to 3x this price.

Pollard + Cowboys DEF may be the same lock we had with Zeke + Cowboys DEF last week.

After Dak and Lamb were so popular last week – and we told you not to play them – they’re a nice pivot away from Pollard or a nice full stack with Pollard. If you’re bold, could even start that stack with Fields instead of Dak.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Pollard + Cowboys DEF

Dak + Pollard

Dak + Pollard + Lamb + Cowboys DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pollard

Lamb

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Fields + Pollard

Fields + Pollard + Lamb

Philadelphia Eagles *	Pittsburgh Steelers	-10.5(-110)	-500	26.5	42.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00
Pittsburgh Steelers	Philadelphia Eagles *	10.5(-110)	375	16	42.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00

Another big home favorite, the Eagles DEF is in play, but they’re popular. If going there, pair them with Miles Sanders. Sanders alone is a nice pivot away from the Hurts ownership, projected as the top QB. Hurts and Goedert both project as the top-owned at their positions, making Sanders a nice play or making Brown or Smith a nice stacking partner with Hurts to offset some of that ownership.

I don’t have any interest in the Pittsburgh side.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Sanders + Eagles DEF

Hurts + Brown + Smith

Hurts + Brown + Smith + Eagles DEF

Hurts + Sanders + Goedert

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hurts

Sanders

Eagles DEF

Smith

Brown

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Pickett + Sanders + Johnson/Pickens/Freirmuth

Los Angeles Rams *	San Francisco 49ers	1(-110)	-105	20.5	42	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 04:25
San Francisco 49ers	Los Angeles Rams *	-1(-110)	-115	21.5	42	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 04:25

Tightest spread on the slate so far. Two teams that both have solid defenses – could be a defensive battle or an offensive shootout. Aiyuk pretty low owned for Deebo being out. CMC also relatively low owned given that he could start having a monster role this week. Very well could be a CMC-of-old game with a pretty big price discount from his heyday. 49ers DEF is high owned. With Deebo out on the other side, you could take a chance on the much lower owned Rams DEF, although it doesn’t give you a ton of leverage. Both QBs pretty low owned. Stafford + Kupp anyone?

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Stafford + CMC + Kupp

Stafford + Kupp + Kittle/Aiyuk

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

CMC

Kupp

Kittle

Higbee

Lottery Picks (stacks

Jimmy G + CMC + Kupp + Kittle

Atlanta Falcons *	Carolina Panthers	-4(-110)	-200	22.5	41	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00
Carolina Panthers	Atlanta Falcons *	4(-110)	165	18.5	41	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00

Foreman certainly isn’t as explosive as Pollard, but you could argue he’s more proven in a featured role. Priced about the same at much lower ownership, although still pretty high ownership. Foreman + Carolina DEF could be a nice dual pivot away from Pollard + Cowboys DEF. The Panthers after upsetting Tampa Bay are bottom to last in DEF ownership. There aren’t a ton of opportunities for turnovers against Atlanta, but that ownership level is really nice. Allgeier is cheaper than both Foreman and Pollard and is starting to be featured and plays on a team that does not want to pass. Shenault without Anderson could find some big plays. Some nice leverage plays in this game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Foreman + Carolina DEF

Allgeier + Falcons DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Foreman

Allgeier

Moore

Lottery Picks (stacks

Shenault

Mariota + Foreman + London + Pitts

New York Jets *	New England Patriots	2.5(-105)	120	18.75	40	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00
New England Patriots	New York Jets *	-2.5(-115)	-145	21.25	40	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 01:00

This feels like a defensive battle with two teams that want to run and play defense. Sometimes these games surprise, but I’ll be staying away from this one outside of lottery-pick lineups. Harris would be a nice pick banking on “maybe Stevenson hasn’t actually taken over the backfield” on a team that typically does uses multiple backs. Harris + Patriots DEF a nice lottery pairing.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Stevenson/Harris + Patriots DEF

Carter + Jets DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Stevenson

Lottery Picks (stacks

Moore

Wilson + Stevenson + Carter + Moore

Indianapolis Colts *	Washington Commanders	-3(-105)	-145	21.25	39.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 04:25
Washington Commanders	Indianapolis Colts *	3(-115)	120	18.25	39.5	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 04:25

Can you really play a QB from a game that is projected for only 39 points? Ehlinger is very attractive on DK and still somewhat attractive on FD. He has rushing upside. He’s popular so you may not feel the need to reach down to this game. Maybe Taylor gets it going this week and gets Derrick Henry type of usage. I do also like targeting 3^rd and 4^th string WRs who may have had a lot of practice time with a new rookie QB. Strachan could fit that bill this week as a flier in a lottery-pick lineup.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Ehlinger + Taylor + McLaurin

Taylor + Colts DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Taylor

Ehlinger

Lottery Picks (stacks

Strachan

Ehlinger + Robinson/Gibson + Strachan

Houston Texans *	Tennessee Titans	-1(-105)	-110	20	39	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 04:05
Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans *	1(-115)	-110	19	39	Sun, Oct 30, 2022 04:05

Lowest total of the week, but maybe Derrick Henry gets all the points. Malik Willis is getting the start for Tennessee, so Henry may get even more usage. Houston will know they want to run the ball with Henry, but will it matter? They’ve been terrible against the run and maybe the rushing threat of Willis will actually open things up for Henry more. And we could see more dump-offs to Henry, making him one of my favorite plays of the week at around 10% ownership. Willis is relatively popular for the same reasons Ehlinger is but I’d rather go to a cheaper Ehlinger, with better receiving weapons, at lower ownership.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Henry + Titans DEF

Henry + Cooks

Mills + Henry + Cooks

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Henry

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pierce + Texans DEF

Henry + Texans DEF (Henry crushes, but they get some turnovers from Willis)

Willis + Henry + Woods + Cooks

Hollister

Ikhine

Willis + Pierce + Hollister

The Lineup Build

This week is all about overstacking a game or going balanced with a lot of leverage plays. We always have solid leverage plays, but this week feels like there are some pretty good options. With so many games with low totals, players that may not normally make your roster are actually feasible this week, assuming one of the top games doesn’t blowup.

I’ll be building lineups tonight and will post more individual site lineups Sunday morning.

FD

Two big decision points: Ehlinger, yes or no. Pollard, yes or no. If you’re building just one lineup, I think Pollard is a yes, despite what might be 50% ownership. But huge leverage if you fade him and he busts. Ehlinger is not a top priority for me on FD, but you can build a strong RB core if you go down to Ehlinger at QB. Here’s the list of RBs projected for under 10% ownership, with 8 RBs ahead of them, CMC, Henry, Barkley, Walker, Taylor, Cook, Sanders, Swift… so many different ways you can go at RB, I’d focus on that list so you get some ownership leverage also. Sanders stands out as a nice leverage play against Hurts owners.

The Cowboys DEF is only projected for about 10% ownership, meaning even though 50% of the field may have Pollard, no more than 10% will have both Pollard and the Cowboys DEF, giving you a great way to differentiate your lineup.

I was initially thinking I might target a Vikings stack, but that game appears pretty popular. I may go with ‘Vegas knows’ and build around the Lions and Dolphins, taking the most leveraged approach, going with Goff + Waddle + Hockenson. I can fit Derrick Henry in. I can add Pollard + Cowboys DEF. I can add Adam Thielen to get a piece of that other game that can put up a nice score even without that game blowing up. That leaves me space for two duds… I can fit an Allgeieir + Shenault mini-stack which combined may be less than 1% ownership. Now, that’s waaaay more risk than you need to take on, but if you’re okay knowing those two could end up as giant busts, go for it. And DJ Moore is really popular today, so if you were already targeting a WR from a terrible game environment, why not get the extra leverage with Shenault? If you don’t want that risk, easy to drop down from Thielen to KJ Osborn and add someone like Renfrow. You can also move up to Foreman at RB. Or, just drop down from Henry to one of the other really strong options, like CMC and you can have a much more balanced lineup. CMC, Sanders, and Cook have the most interest for me given ownership and leverage off other plays.

I’ll be building another lineup that fades Pollard and is more balanced than above. I’ll use Ehlinger for salary savings. I’ll start with Sanders + Eagles DEF. I’ll add CMC + Cook. I’ll add Pierce to Ehlinger (but could go much riskier and drop down to Strachan but Pierce already comes with great ownership leverage). I’ll add Moore opposite Cook. And I’ll add Gesicki as a low-owned piece of the top game environment as a hedge against my other lineup that has Waddle.

I also really like finding a lineup with Stafford + CMC + Kupp.

DK

You can take a riskier approach like on FD. Ehlinger. Allgeier + Shenault. But also target some of the other top games in different ways. Kamara + Renfrow. Kupp + Kittle. Pollard + Cowboys DEF.

Or you can go with a chalk approach. Ehlinger. Jacobs + Kamara. Kittle. Pollard + Cowboys DEF. Olave. G Wilson. DJ Moore. I don’t love the WRs there but they are priced pretty low for their potential upside.

Yahoo

Not as much salary advantage by moving down to Ehlinger, so I’ll use this as my spot to target my Cousins stack. Cousins + Thielen + Hopkins. Lock Kittle for his low price. Add Pollard + Cowboys DEF. I’ll get exposure to Swift here and add Waddle. I’ll add Sanders. Nice, balanced lineup, with some leverage spots.