DFS Building Blocks – Week 3

UPDATE: With Renfrow out for the Raiders, I really like a Carr + Adams + Waller stack. I don’t love the game environment as it may not be as high scoring as we’d like but I love that we can so easily narrow down where the ball is going. Mack Hollins is a nice cheap piece, especially on DK, to fill out your lineup as well with Renfrow out.

But what if you added Henry? What if I told you that you could play Carr + Adams + Waller + Henry and what if I told you that you could also play Jonathan Taylor all in the same lineup? That’s a lot of studs (historically anyway) in one lineup. You have to get creative at Flex and DEF but you could do a lot worse than Penny + SEA DEF. Then you can take a flier on two cheap WRs, but in a week where there are so many other high-priced chalk plays, a lineup built around Henry and Taylor instead would give you a lot of differentiation.

I may still stick with my Flacco play – he is elite, after all. But I still like any of the other game stacks if you want to go to those instead. Just be unique (in a smart way) by over stacking or going QB + RB + WR or RB + RB so you can get some differentiation.

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Monster week if you built your stack around the BAL/MIA game last week. This was one of those weeks that if you did anything else, you never had a chance.

The winning lineup highlighted one of our favorite strategies – overstacking. It featured Tua (3%), Hill (10%), Waddle (6%), and Andrews (8%). When that stack hits, like it did last week, far fewer other players and situations you have to get right. The winning lineup had Chubb and Dortch and also featured paying for a top defense, Tampa Bay (4%). When you put it all together, with the low ownership that it had, the overstack can win you a lot of money.

Our main lineup built around Stafford, Robinson, Henderson, and Rams D didn’t have any busts, but also didn’t have any booms. It was very balanced, but all our players left a lot of potential on the table. Robinson and Henderson each scored early, then slowed down. Everyone else was respectable if we were talking about season-long leagues, but none put up tournament-winning scores.

First Reactions

Continuing from above, this week is different. Multiple games are in play for us, meaning one could turn into BAL/MIA or a more balanced lineup will win with pieces of multiple games putting up tournament winning scores.

My real first reaction for this week was “I can’t wait to see how high ownership is when MIA or BAL is playing KC/BUF/LAR.” And, what do you know, we get BUF @ MIA this week. That should mean we can target all the other equally attractive spots at lower ownership than we would normally see.

CIN @ NYJ jumps out as a great bet on a Burrow bounce back. Hopefully it’s sneaky. Kansas City stands out as probably able to put up 100 points on Indianapolis – great spot for that overstack with QB + RB + TE + DEF. DET @ MIN should be an attractive game for us and the public. PHI @ WAS is interesting given the Carson Wentz dynamic. LV is in for a bounce back against TEN. LAR @ ARI is an attractive spot… can we go back to a Stafford stack again?!

Game Overviews

Miami Dolphins *	Buffalo Bills	5.5(-110)	200	23.75	53	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins *	-5.5(-110)	-250	29.25	53	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

It doesn’t appear the public is overreacting to the Dolphins last week, instead focusing on most of the game when they were losing. But the public is not ignoring Josh Allen and Diggs. In both situations we have to ask if we want to “chase points”. Do we want to go back to Allen and Diggs because they’re that good and are in a good spot? Do we want to go back to the Dolphins, at low ownership again, hoping for a repeat performance? I’m likely to play this in a different way… is there a pivot we can make? Can we play Singletary and BUF DEF? Can we play Dawson Knox as a one-off? Or in a week with a lot of target games, do we just eat the chalk with Diggs and hope he has another monster game? Stats would say a Diggs regression is coming, but nothing points to it being this game, outside of blowout risk. That could make an Allen + Singletary + Diggs stack attractive or an Allen + Diggs + Knox stack. Watch Gabe Davis’ health, but he’s expected to play and is another nice pivot. I’m playing this game as a Dolphins disappointment and getting as much leverage as I can off the chalk plays.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Allen + Davis + Knox (and could + Hill or + BUF DEF depending on what story you want to tell)

Allen + Singletary + Diggs

Singletary + BUF DEF

Allen + Diggs

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Davis

Knox

BUF DEF

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Cook

Cook + BUF DEF

Minnesota Vikings *	Detroit Lions	-6(-110)	-250	29.25	52.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings *	6(-110)	200	23.25	52.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

My first reaction to this game was Dalvin Cook. He’s expected to be popular though. But so are Cousins, Jefferson, and even Thielen. You can take individual pieces of this game, but my preference, if targeting this, is to go with a full overstack – Cousins + Cook + Jefferson/Thielen  + Swift. Playing Cook and Swift is a nice way to differentiate and because of Swift’s passing game involvement you’re still in line with the game script we’re betting on. This game isn’t sneaking up on anyone, but the overstack with Cook and Swift probably will.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Cousins + Cook + Swift + Jefferson (Thielen is much cheaper but doesn’t give you much ownership leverage since he’s also very popular)

Cook + Swift

Cousins + Cook + Jefferson + St. Brown/Chark

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Cook

Jefferson

Swift

Thielen

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Hockeson

Osborn

Smith Jr.

Indianapolis Colts *	Kansas City Chiefs	5.5(-110)	200	22.5	50.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
Kansas City Chiefs	Indianapolis Colts *	-5.5(-110)	-250	28	50.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

The Chiefs are expected to score 28 and the Colts 22.5, which seems like about 22.5 more than they should be if you watched them play this year. It’s hard not to see this one as a pure Chiefs domination, with perhaps some garbage time getting the Colts some points. But… what if it doesn’t happen that way? What if Taylor gets a quick TD and they stay competitive for a bit? It’s the NFL – usually teams don’t stay as bad as the Colts have been the first two weeks. And Taylor is too talented to keep down. With so many people spending up for Kupp, Jefferson, and Diggs this week, and the Colts looking terrible, Taylor is a nice game theory pivot for your high-salary player. If going there, he should be played alongside Mahomes and Kelce though.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Mahomes + Kelce

Mahomes + Taylor + Kelce

Mahomes + CEH + Kelce

CEH + Chiefs DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kelce

Mahomes

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Ryan + Taylor + Pittman + Kelce

Mahomes + Taylor + Pittman + Kelce

Arizona Cardinals *	Los Angeles Rams	3.5(-110)	150	22.5	48.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 04:25
Los Angeles Rams	Arizona Cardinals *	-3.5(-110)	-185	26	48.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 04:25

I’m once again seeing an Arizona let down. Hopefully, the public will just be thinking about the Cardinals comeback last week and ignore the tough matchup. I really want to go right back to Stafford + Robinson and wouldn’t be afraid to add the Rams DEF either, again at a pretty low price. Ertz is cheap and should be popular and Murray will need to get the ball out quick, but I prefer Knox or Kelce. You can go to Kupp as your high-priced play but it will be popular. He’s 2 for 2 in going for 2.5x his salary and could easily go for more. Robinson is relatively popular this week too, lessening my excitement some. If I go this route, I may make it a full stack with Stafford + Kupp + Robinson + Rams DEF, trying to find some differentiation and playing on the Cardinals let down game script.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Stafford + Robinson

Stafford + Kupp

Stafford + Kupp + Robinson + Rams DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kupp

Robinson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Murray + Kupp + Brown/Ertz

Henderson/Akers + Rams DEF

Benjamin

Washington Commanders *	Philadelphia Eagles	6.5(-110)	220	20.5	47.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Commanders *	-6.5(-110)	-275	27	47.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

I want to play Sanders + Eagles DEF. But it’s scary. Sanders loses work to Hurts and the other RBs and in any given game Hurts and/or the WRs could dominate. That said, the Eagles DEF has looked strong and Washington, while they’ve been good, are always a candidate for a let down. It’s a nicely priced stack that lets you fit some of the premium pieces from other target games. I’m probably playing this as a stack or not at all.

If you want to build around the game staying close and shooting out Hurts + Brown/Smith + Dotson is a nice stack. If you don’t want to guess on the Eagles WRs and want a leverage stack you can take the Washington side with Wentz + Sanders + Dotson/Thomas. I’m staying away from McLaurin against Slay.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Sanders + Eagles DEF

Hurts + Brown/Smith + Dotson

Hurts + Sanders + Eagles DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hurts

Brown

Dotson

Smith

Goedert

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Wentz + Sanders + Dotson/Thomas

Thomas

McLaurin

McKissic

Gibson

Wentz + Gibson + Dotson + Brown/Smith/Goedert

Tennessee Titans *	Las Vegas Raiders	2.5(-115)	110	21.5	45.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
Las Vegas Raiders	Tennessee Titans *	-2.5(-105)	-135	24	45.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

This is our first game with a really tight spread – it could be a shootout if the Titans can put up any points or it could be a slow, close game. After the Raiders imploded last week they could be in for a bounce back here and any Raiders stack feels attractive. And, if you want to bank on a competitive game, could stack along with Henry or Burks. A Titans based stack would be a nice leverage stack, but only in lottery-pick lineups.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Carr + Adams + Waller + Burks

Carr + Jacobs + Adams/Waller

Carr + Henry + Adams/Waller

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Adams

Waller

Burks

Jacobs

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Hilliard

Tannehill + Henry + Burks + Adams/Waller

New York Jets *	Cincinnati Bengals	6(-110)	200	19.5	45	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
Cincinnati Bengals	New York Jets *	-6(-110)	-250	25.5	45	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

I love playing the bounce back. And, surprisingly, the Jets are playing competitive, fast-paced games. Even with all the great options above, I’m leaning to a Burrow + Mixon + Chase + Moore game stack as my primary build. It’s a tall task trying to pick all the individual plays you need from the multiple good games this week, so, might as well go to the pick one game and stack it strategy. No reason it can’t be this game.

With no glaring strengths or weaknesses, everyone is in play from this game as one-offs or stacks.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Burrow + Mixon + Chase + Moore/Wilson

Burrow + Chase + Higgins + Moore/Wilson

Flacco + Mixon + Moore/Wilson

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Mixon

Chase

Higgins

Moore

Wilson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Carter

Hall

Flacco + Carter + Moore/Wilson + Chase

New England Patriots *	Baltimore Ravens	3(-115)	125	20.75	44.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
Baltimore Ravens	New England Patriots *	-3(-105)	-150	23.75	44.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

Hard to believe we’re only week since the Ravens and Dolphins put up a million points. And now Baltimore is only a 3-point favorite against New England in a game with a 44.5 point total. You can stay away from this game or you can go with the completely unexpected shootout! Plenty of other spots to target this week, so I’m staying away. However, when searching for cheap WRs to fill out my lineup, I keep landing on Davante Parker. One of these days we might see a blowup game like he’s had in the past for the Dolphins.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Parker

Jackson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Jones + Parker

Jones + Parker + Meyers/Agholor/Smith/Henry

Jackson + Bateman/Andrews + Parker

Los Angeles Chargers *	Jacksonville Jaguars	-3.5(-105)	-165	23	42.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 04:05
Jacksonville Jaguars	Los Angeles Chargers *	3.5(-115)	135	19.5	42.5	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 04:05

Too bad Justin Herbert is banged up. If he’s fully health, I’m stacking up the Chargers and banking on 35 points. But he’s not fully healthy. I don’t really love any part of this game. Ekeler is probably my preferred option, but he’s not cheap and the Jags just shut down Taylor. If I’m playing him, I’m probably stacking him with the Chargers DEF.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Ekeler

Kirk

Chargers DEF

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Herbert + Williams + Kirk

Lawrence + Ekeler + Kirk/Jones/Jones

Etienne

Seattle Seahawks *	Atlanta Falcons	-1(-105)	-110	21.5	42	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 04:25
Atlanta Falcons	Seattle Seahawks *	1(-115)	-110	20.5	42	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 04:25

I remember trying to nail down a Kyle Pitts breakout game last year and it never came. Is this the week?! If not now, when? And in a year when we’ve ignored Metcalf and Lockett, this may be their best chance to get going as well. And we also have our seemingly weekly opportunity to target Mariota and the Falcons with a defense.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Metcalf + Pitts

Penny + Seattle DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pitts

Metcalf

Penny

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Smith + Metcalf + Pitts

Smith + Penny + Metcalf + Pitts (or plus SEA DEF instead of Pitts)

Smith + Metcalf + Lockett + Pitts

Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	Green Bay Packers	-1(-110)	-120	21.5	42	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 04:25
Green Bay Packers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	1(-110)	100	20.5	42	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 04:25

This game is projected exactly as you’d project a Tom Brady vs Aaron Rodgers matchup – as tight, low-scoring defensive battle. With both QBs missing their prized WRs, this game feels ugly. Might be a great real game for boomers to watch, but probably not a great fantasy game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Fournette + Tampa DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Fournette

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Jones (intrigued by this on DK for his passing role at tiny ownership)

Gage

Miller

Perriman

Brady + Fournette + Gage + Doubs

Rodgers + Jones + Fournette/Gage

Carolina Panthers *	New Orleans Saints	2.5(-110)	120	19.25	41	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
New Orleans Saints	Carolina Panthers *	-2.5(-110)	-145	21.75	41	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

Lots of injuries and generally ugly play. Michael Thomas has shown some of his old form, but Winston is hurt. CMC is in for a tough defense, but could get more passing work making him viable. And, Taysom Hill, could find his way into a lot more playing time this week. That’s about all I like here.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

CMC

Thomas

Hill

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Chicago Bears *	Houston Texans	-3(100)	-150	21	39	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00
Houston Texans	Chicago Bears *	3(-115)	125	18	39	Sun, Sep 25, 2022 01:00

Settle down now, I know you’re excited about this game. Montgomery is surprisingly popular this week, making it easy for me to drop down to Sanders at a cheaper price. If you want to play Montgomery do it as a mini-stack with Cooks. Or do it with the Bears DEF.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Montgomery + Cooks

Montgomery + Bears DEF

Pierce + Houston DEF

Mills + Montgomery + Cooks

Fields + Mooney + Cooks

The Lineup Build

This is a week to go easy on your bankroll. With no clear spots – and no clear game pivots away from a chalk game – we need a lot more to go right this week than in a normal week. Another viable path this week is to drop down to a cheaper tournament and just build a stack for every game! It’s fun and gives you lots of different rooting options.

If building one lineup, focus on ownership. With so many viable games and players this week, it should be easy to find similar plays at lower ownership than the public is targeting. Use the Player Grids under the Daily Leagues menu and click on the Tournament Rating column header. This rating bakes in ceiling and ownership so you can find the best game theory options for your lineup. Use that as a tie breaker, or even start there and build from that.

FD

This is definitely a week to have fun and play whatever game and players you want. This is where I’m currently at, but I’m still playing around with a lot of different lineups. I’m going a little more stars and scrubs this week trying to fit a few higher priced players.

I want to make my core stack Bengals and Jets, which I can do if I sacrifice a high-priced player. But let’s say we want Kupp and Swift from two of the better games. So I can go to Flacco + Moore + Chase instead of to Burrow. I don’t love the idea of Swift without a player from the Vikings also, but he’s very low owned this week and could pop. I like Sanders at low ownership paired with the Eagles DEF. I’m left looking for a cheap TE and RB. I can go down to Irv Smith Jr. (giving me my mini-stack with Swift and a nice pivot away from Jefferson, Thielen, and Cook) and then I can take my pick between Etienne, Stevenson, Cook, Burkhead, or even Hines at RB. I’ll stick with Etienne for the explosiveness in a game where they should be playing from behind.

You can easily drop down from Swift and Kupp and make a much more balanced lineup with more correlated stacks. Just play around with it and see what you like.

DK

Mahomes and Kelce at very low ownership. Fournette. Montgomery + Cooks. Seattle DEF. Then we round it out with some deeper plays we highlighted. Hockenson. Zay Jones. Meyers.

A two TE lineup isn’t ideal on DK, so if you prefer you can drop down from Hockenson at the Flex to Dortch if you prefer.

Again, not a lot of correlations, but really needing luck this week to hit on the right pieces of multiple games.

Yahoo

Allen is surprisingly not the most expensive QB, so we can lock him in. Montgomery + Cooks again. Kupp. Mixon + Bengals DEF. Hockenson again. Then we can fill our lineup out with Pierce giving a unique stack with Montgomery + Pierce + Cooks (play around with this and see if you want to change out of it). And can add JuJu to get some Chiefs exposure.