Playoff DFS – 1/30
Can you believe this day is actually here? Let’s take a moment to reflect on the GOAT… Gabriel Davis. What a week? He went from a very nice 2 TDs for nearly the entire game, then added two in the last two minutes to make him the must-have player last week. That game flow was actually playing nicely into our leveraged Stafford stack, until the last two minutes. Such is life.
Let’s start this week with what everyone expects to happen:
- Chiefs and Bengals get into a shootout.
- Rams and 49ers play a close game, but probably not a shootout. And, if Deebo somehow misses, Rams to dominate.
This week what everyone expects to happen is also the most likely thing to happen, so we need to get our leverage in secondary plays or unique stacks.
Before we go there, I want to provide an example of how we can leverage ownership.
Mahomes is expected to be the highest owned QB by quite a bit. Hill is near the top of the WR list. And Mixon is expected to be the top owned RB.
If we were only considering correlation and our lineup telling a story, on a normal week, this would mean the public is telling the story that the Bengals get out to a lead using Mixon and Mahomes and Hill are playing catchup. But since it’s a short slate, people are seeing Mixon as the only clear RB pick, so they’re not actually telling a lineup story. But they’re also saying… because I already have Mixon I can’t also play Burrow. Enter leverage for us.
A Burrow + Mixon stack is my starting point this week. We’ve talked about it a lot – a QB + RB + WR is completely viable on short slate. And, in fact, is completely viable on a full slate when the game is expected to be a shootout. This week we get both.
Higgins was the right pick last week and is now more popular than Chase, so, of course, I’ll add Chase to my stack.
Then I’ll add one or both of Hill and Kelce depending on salary.
I don’t hate taking a chance on Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week as everyone will be going back to McKinnon. But I’m not forcing him into this lineup.
I also like taking a shot on Sony Michel, after Akers’ rough game last week. Saving salary here should allow me to fit the correlated Rams D. With or without Deebo, I think the Rams control this game.
That’s my preferred approach above, but I also like going back to a Stafford + Kupp + OBJ stack.
And, if you really want to get some leverage, stack the Rams and 49ers, using something like Jimmy G and Kittle as your core, adding Kupp and OBJ or OBJ and a Rams RB. Then you can add Edward-Helaire and Chiefs D or even Mixon and Bengals D, if you’re feeling cute.
That’s it for this season! It’s been a fun ride and, if you’re keeping track at home, a fun 114 pages! See you next year.