Playoff DFS – Sunday 1/16

Yesterday went nearly as expected, making the number 1 lineup build the way to go… with some key pivots. Knox instead of Waller and Kendrick Bourne instead of Beasley or Meyers. And Zay Jones as the other cheap piece to have. When we talk about our number 2 option, we can also include this number 1 with pivots. You’re still going to have a chunk of popular players, but you’re mixing in either a different QB stack or different WRs from the popular game, as we saw yesterday.

Today we have a three-game slate giving us a little more wiggle room to make a lineup as we normally would, but let’s approach it like we did yesterday, first talking about what we expect to happen, then how to pivot.

Let’s start with what everyone expects to happen:

1. Mahomes and the Chiefs to dominate the Steelers.
2. The Bucs to pass and/or run all over the Eagles.
3. The Cowboys and 49ers to get into a shootout.

Knowing that, I like to do three things:

1. Build an “expected” lineup, where I’m just trying to find the most obvious plays in the most obvious lineup construction. If I win, I’ll be winning alongside a whole bunch of people. But I’d still win.
2. Build a lineup that no one expects but is still plausible. Or a balanced lineup that uses two or three key pivots.
3. Get wild. The Eagles keep up with the Bucs. Big Ben finally does something (one week after crushing me). The Cowboys and 49ers have a defensive battle.

For number 1, it’s a clear Dak or Mahomes stack as the core of your lineup. Probably Bucs D. This lineup probably looks like Dak + Cooper + Wilson + Samuel + Kittle. Probably using Vaughn and Harris at RB. Then filling out with a cheap piece.

Again, I’ll be focusing on number 2 here. With three games, we don’t have to go that wild to still be different.

I think the Chiefs dominate the Steelers, so I’ll be locking in Williams + Chiefs D.

I think the Cowboys and 49ers could shootout, but I also think there is a greater than expected chance of a defensive battle. I’ll probably mix in two WRs here, maybe Wilson and Samuel. But there’s enough room to go to Lamb or Cooper too.

I think the public is going to try to guess right on the Bucs RB. I’m going to pivot to Gronk and go to a Hurts stack. Hurts + Smith + Goedert (and use Gronk in the flex). Hurts has rushing upside trying to get outside of the strong interior rush defense of the Bucs. And, in the most likely scenario of second-half garbage time he has a lot of passing upside as well. With most people almost certainly playing Kelce or Kittle, using both Goedert and Gronk will give us a nice edge.

Then at RB you can play around with the Bucs or pay up to Harris or Zeke.

For number 3, let’s go back to the classic Big Ben + Bell + Brown (Big Ben + Harris + Johnson) lineup. Can add Hill or Kelce on the other side. Or add Williams plus Hill or Kelce. Then go to the Bucs D. Or even get a little more different and go to Zeke and Cowboys D.

Good luck!