DFS Building Blocks – Week 15

Well, we don’t have to worry about fading the Chiefs this week with Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce all dominating Thursday night. I have a lot of Kelce shares in season-long so I’m off to a good start there. If you’ve been a subscriber for a while, you know we value top TEs more than most, so hopefully you were able to finally catch Kelce’s upside as well.

We also get two games on Saturday so we have a smaller Sunday slate, with no obvious spots so we should be able to find some good leverage opportunities. Let’s dive in.

UPDATE: LAR/SEA and WAS/PHI have been postponed and thus removed from the main slate. I’ve left the analysis below so you can see how they did fit into my overall thoughts.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: I’ve moved from Dak to Rodgers. He plays better at home than on the road and he’s dealing with his toe injury, but he’s four TDs away from the Packers record. I think he gets it done today against a depleted Ravens secondary.

The problem with Dak is it’s hard to pinpoint who to pair him with. Not so with Rodgers, so locking in Adams as well.

I’m locking in Kittle, even though he’s the clear chalk now. With Deebo running the ball more, the passing game is moving through Kittle. He’s coming off two dominant performances and no reason to think he can’t do it again.

By taking a gamble on Singletary at RB, we can fit Rodgers, Adams, Chase, and Kittle and fill out our lineup with some of the chalk value options like Parker and Kirk or get some cheap exposure to the Cowboys with Gallup.

QB

Kyler Murray. Missing Hopkins but gets a great matchup. The matchup may be too good though, with the Cardinals getting control early and leaning on the running game. I’m likely to look elsewhere this week.

Josh Allen. I’m happy to see Allen as the second-highest owned QB, because I’ll happily fade him. We were on Allen a lot earlier this year, but the Bills shouldn’t need a huge Allen performance this week.

Dak Prescott. This is interesting. Our pick last week, when he was a big disappointment. He and Cooper jumped out to some quick points then froze the rest of the game. I’m looking for a big bounce back from Dak this week against an overmatched Giants team. Was hoping he’d be sneakier though.

Jalen Hurts. Too much uncertainty around his health and playing a decimated Washington team. Even if he plays, may not get much work.

Aaron Rodgers. Always in play and priced surprisingly low given his last three performances. Playing a tough defense (that we just saw Baker Mayfield beat) but hard not to go back to Rodgers.

Matthew Stafford. Playing the Seahawks team that just made Davis Mills look like a star. Some COVID concerns with the Rams still, but this ownership seems too low for Stafford who has been right around 3x the last few weeks (still not as good as Rodgers).

Tua Tagovailoa. Interesting option against the Jets, but I’d rather go to Prescott, Rodgers, Stafford for not much more salary.

Lamar Jackson. Waiting to see if he plays. Passing on him either way.

Russell Wilson. Would rather have the Stafford side of this matchup even though we pumped Wilson last week at tiny ownership and nearly got his 3x.

Jimmy Garoppolo. Should do enough to get the WRs involved, but this looks like a running week for SF.

Teddy Bridgewater. There are worse options this week if you wanted to go off the board here. Teddy’s been around 3x this price.

Ben Roethlisberger. I can’t do it, even if he may throw 40 times. Burned us too many times this year.

Joe Burrow. If we think Teddy could be in play we have to consider Burrow on the other side as well. Chase worked out on our rosters last week, could see another Chase mini-stack pay off or a Burrow stack.

Matt Ryan. I actually have some interest in Pitts again this week, but not Ryan.

Trevor Lawrence. I really want to play a Lawrence stack with Urban out of the way. Has he been having rookie struggles? Or is he ready to be unleashed this week?

Davis Mills. What’s keeping me from playing Lawrence is that Mills has actually put in some nice performances and should be more involved in either a win or loss. And he’s super cheap. And he was nearly 3x last week. And he’s at near-zero ownership again. The only thing keeping me off Mills right now is I have extra salary in my early builds so it’s silly not moving up at QB. But I really like a game stack here at tiny ownership. I also expect the Jacksonville side to pick up ownership, so Mills is a great way to attack this game instead. Mills + Robinson + Cooks.

RB

Najee Harris. Ton of volume but really pricey against a tough D. I like some value options better.

Ezekiel Elliott. This is surprising ownership after last week when everyone was down on Zeke because of injury concerns. Nothing has changed this week that warrants Zeke being this highly owned.

Darrell Henderson. A little too much uncertainty and could split time with Michel.

Michael Carter. Popular and he’s put up one big game this year, but I’m passing this week. I’m more likely to go with Miami D and get leverage on this play.

Saquon Barkley. Too expensive for his performance and the team’s general outlook.

Aaron Jones. Could see a classic Jones game with people focusing on Dillon’s usage, but I have other spots to go to. I don’t hate a Rodgers + Jones stack though. And like Jones more on DK.

Chuba Hubbard. No thanks. Abdullah involved some and this team is a mess.

James Robinson. #freejamesrobinson. It worked for Brittney, let’s hope it works for James Robinson. I actually expect Robinson to end up with a lot higher ownership than this, but I’ll be eating the chalk here hoping the Jags ride Robinson in a great matchup.

Cordarrelle Patterson. Tough matchup and priced higher than his performance.

Eli Mitchell. If he plays, I have a lot of interest. But he could be limited and they may not need him. If he misses, bump up Deebo Samuel again.

Antonio Gibson. Not worth using this week with so many other players missing.

David Johnson. Too many people involved in this backfield still.

Joe Mixon. In play if you want, but tougher matchup and they’re getting Perine involved more.

James Conner. This was supposed to be the week! But Edmonds should be back. We’ve used Conner – and he’s paid off – in earlier games when both he and Edmonds played, but he’s priced like Edmonds is out. I actually like the Edmonds play here at a lower price, but I may just avoid the situation all together.

Others to mention:

Singletary. With Allen getting so much ownership attention and the Panthers getting a lot of respect for their defense, Singletary is getting zero attention and he’s priced like a backup. It’s scary, but could be a sneaky good spot especially if he gets a lot of passing work again.

Penny. No one wants to play him against the Rams, but he’s pretty cheap and should be getting the start. He could get involved in the passing game, he could surprise people, or he could just get a lot of garbage time. In any case, a decent chance to pay off at near zero ownership.

WR

Here’s the list of WRs expected to be higher than 5% owned.

Cooper Kupp

Davante Adams

Stefon Diggs

Diontae Johnson

Deebo Samuel. Interested in Deebo this week, especially if Mitchell misses. Everyone above is playable, and can always boom, but price and ownership is too high to be a priority for me.

Christian Kirk. In play with Hopkins missing. This isn’t sneaking up on anyone though; Moore or Green may be a better ownership-considered play.

D.K. Metcalf

DeVonta Smith

Julio Jones

DeVante Parker. Not a lock, but a near lock with Waddle out. Great pivot away from Kirk above.

Brandin Cooks. Always in play for his volume and could see a surprising shootout this week.

Cole Beasley

CeeDee Lamb. I have some interest in Lamb, but if going here, may end up with Gallup at lower ownership instead.

Gabriel Davis. In play with Sanders and way too cheap for his expected role. Still need to keep an eye on this game getting out of hand though and Davis not getting the volume we need.

Sterling Shepard

Amari Cooper

A.J. Green. Another nice pivot away from Kirk.

Who isn’t on the list?

Chase (and Higgins), Gallup, Marvin Jones, Van Jefferson. Rondale Moore.

Chase really stands out as too talented for so little ownership. Gallup is a guess with so many other weapons on the Cowboys, but the clear leverage option. Marvin Jones started the year great and will be motivated this week! I mentioned I’d love a Lawrence + Robinson + Jones stack, but I’d be more than willing to go to Jones alone too. Van Jefferson has big-play potential against an overrated Seattle passing defense. Moore could see more work without Hopkins. People are, rightly, going to Kirk but we’ve had success picking some sneaky Moore spots this year (better play on DK).

Who else?

Laviska Shenault. Gage. All the Bronco’s WRs. Any of those are in play as well this week at teeny tiny ownership.

TE

Dallas Goedert. Easy fade this week as the Eagles should return to trying to run the ball.

Kyle Pitts. I had some interest here in a mini-stack with an SF player, but not if he’s coming with this ownership.

Zach Ertz. Not a bad option with Hopkins out.

George Kittle. Priced up, but he’s hit 3x+ the last two weeks. If Mitchell sits again, Kittle would make a lot of sense as a pay-up TE at lower than expected ownership.

Dalton Schultz. Too unpredictable with all the Cowboys weapons.

Mark Andrews. In play, even if Lamar doesn’t play, but I’d rather pass this week.

Pat Freiermuth. In play, but I’m staying away from the Steelers.

James O’Shaughnessy. Cheap still but I’m focusing on Robinson and Jones.

Mike Gesicki. Pretty solid option here against the Jets, just not showing the upside we’d like.

Noah Fant. In play, but I’d rather go with a Broncos WR on the other side of Chase.

Even further down the list…

Dawson Knox. Priced near the top so his ownership has gone to under 1%. With Diggs being so popular I’ll gladly take the leverage and go back to Knox again this week.

DEF

Arizona Cardinals. Feels like they should destroy the Lions. And Swift is now ruled out.

Miami Dolphins. Playing the Jets.

Los Angeles Rams. This seems a little high against an improving Seattle offense.

Philadelphia Eagles. Washington will be starting their third string (or worse) QB. Eagles are a great option. Could even stack with Sanders or Howard if you think they really destroy them.

Tennessee Titans. Interesting to see the Titans this high with Najee Harris expected to be the top owned RB and Diontae Johnson so high. That makes this a great leverage spot though.

Green Bay Packers. Feels too high with Huntley playing pretty well in the absence of Jackson.

Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston playing okay with Mills. Jags may be fired up, but I like other options better.

Dallas Cowboys. Always in play and the top defense last week. Good option against a banged-up Giants team.

Buffalo Bills. Hello bad Cam?

The Lineup Build

Let’s start with who we’re locking in. James Robinson. Ja’Marr Chase.

Going to need to keep monitoring COVID and injury situations this weekend before we lock the rest in, but this is where I’m at right now.

I don’t love a lot of the other RB options after Robinson, so I’m going to drop all the way down to Singletary (and keep my fingers crossed). I’ll pair him with the Bills D at low ownership.

Since I’m not playing Mitchell in that scenario I’ll pay up for Kittle. But, depending on Mitchell news, may later swap to playing Deebo at WR and find another TE.

I’ll add Cooks on the other side of Robinson.

I have enough money that I can go up to Dak and Lamb.

Then I have my pick to fill out WR – perhaps a Broncos WR on the other side of Chase. Perhaps Parker.

I don’t love where I’m at right now so I’ll keep tinkering and we’ll see where we land Sunday morning.