DFS Building Blocks – Week 14

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Deebo Samuel is expected to play but could still be limited. That takes value away from Jeff Wilson Jr. Deebo is a perfect GPP play this week – he has a sky-high ceiling with his rushing upside but could also bust if he gets reinjured or gets limited playing time. He’s not a must-start at his price, but nice if you can fit him in, particularly with a Chase mini-stack.

Ownership has flipped some, with Prescott now being more popular (although only slightly) than Mahomes and Wilson. I’m still leaning to a Prescott-naked lineup or, really, a Prescott + Gibson stack since McKissic is out. I’ll try to add Lockett to get a piece of the Seahawks.

My secondary lineup is going to be some type of Chiefs stack with at least Mahomes + Jacobs + Hill. You can mix in or add Kelce and Renfrow as well.

I’m off the Jets D. Losing Elijah Moore makes them even worse than they were on offense and their defense may never get off the field. I’m bumping up the Saints D, although they’re the most expensive on FD (cheaper on DK). And bumping up Denver D with so many Lions players expected out from Covid. Denver appears to be the best mix of matchup, price, and ownership leverage.

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We’re coming off a monster chalk week where I saw the highest tournament cash line I can ever remember seeing at 161 points. Even our top, safe lineup only hit 150, with our riskier tournament lineup hitting 121. When the most popular plays hit for big games, it takes a big score to win. But that also illustrates the opportunity we have each week. With so much of the public concentrated on certain plays each week, we can get a lot of leverage by looking elsewhere.

This week we have one game that really stands out – Tampa Bay vs Buffalo. We can expect a lot of public focus on that game so we can either not play it or we can find unique ways to target that game. The other thing we can do is build our lineup around a lot of less popular games. With a focus on finding leverage this week, let’s return to looking at the most popular plays by position, then we’ll come back at the end and build our lineup.

QB

Cam Newton – Running QB who can put up points even if (when) bad Cam shows up. They’re pretty one-dimensional without McCaffrey. On paper, that helps Cam but it can also allow the defense to focus on him. I’m not going to take the risk of bad Cam when he’s the most popular play.

Josh Allen – Playing in our standout game and has rushing upside. Can be played alone or in stacks. But… if I wasn’t looking at Vegas totals and I saw Bucs vs Bills I’d think it turns into an ugly game, not a shootout.

Patrick Mahomes – Playable, but the Chiefs still aren’t themselves. This feels expensive for his performance. Rather get him at lower ownership.

Justin Herbert – Playable, but is missing Allen. If the public is locked on to Ekeler though, Herbert (or Herbert + Williams) becomes more interesting as a leverage play.

Lamar Jackson – Same profile as Cam and Allen above him, but at lower ownership. You’re getting top-QB upside at the fifth-highest ownership, but the Vegas total is low. This is a nice spot to get unique.

Tom Brady – This is a bit surprising. I expected the public to be locking on to the Bucs passing game as it’s the only standout game and we know they pass more than anyone in the league. I originally intended to target Fournette, thinking it would be sneaky, but it appears people are overvaluing the Bills defense without White. I may look hard at a Brady stack again this week and take the leverage on all the Fournette ownership. Or, I may mostly skip this game, hoping it disappoints.

Taysom Hill – This ownership will certainly end the week higher. I’ve seen him projected as the number two owned QB this week in some places. Same profile as Cam, but even more rushing and TD upside. QB pricing (on FD) is really tight so you’re not getting a huge benefit by going to a lower quality QB, so we should be looking for ownership leverage where we can. Hill is a fine play, but does have a hurt finger. I’m more likely to turn to Kamara as leverage here, even though he’s expensive. It will depend on what other value RBs we can find. Or may fade them both and they each take away from the other.

Joe Burrow – Passing this week in what could be a lower-scoring game, although it is one of the higher Vegas totals this week. May find a mini-stack or individual play from the game.

Russell Wilson – Weird to see Wilson this low against Houston. We targeted Metcalf last week trying to take advantage of low ownership. Another great spot to target the Seahawks passing attack when NO ONE wants to play them.

Dak Prescott – Another great play that is surprisingly low owned. If this ownership level sticks, I’ll have to consider Dak quite a bit playing against a team that is tough against the run and he has all his weapons back. He’s in Tom Brady territory, where you can (and sometimes it’s best) play him alone without stacking any of his receivers.

Taylor Heinicke – I’m not prioritizing any Redskins, but if you think they keep pace with the Cowboys it’s a cheaper way to target this game.

Davis Mills – Worth a mention as he’s so cheap and he’s shown 3x this price a couple times already. If you want to pay up for someone like Ekeler or Kamara this is a good path to doing that, but there are also plenty of viable cheap WRs to make it work as well. Mills could get you 4x or he could get you 4 points…

RB

Jeff Wilson – Chalk value with Eli Mitchell ruled out. But look down the list and you’ll see Hasty picking up some ownership as well. This is a fool-me-once type of situation… Can Wilson get you 3x on a run-first team? Sure. Is it a lock? No. I’m more likely to fade this play, especially if Deebo Samuel is playing. This is probably going to increase ownership on Kittle as well now and Deebo/Aiyuk. I’m much more likely to go to Deebo or Aiyuk in this scenario and hope the chalk busts.

Austin Ekeler – Best top-end option available with Allen out. I like this paired with the Chargers defense. I probably won’t end up here in my primary lineup, but I have some secondary lineups building around paying-up for RB.

Leonard Fournette – I wanted this to be sneakier than it is. Good chance for some big plays from Fournette, but I’ll either play Brady naked or a single WR alone; someone like Evans whose redzone role gives direct leverage off of Fournette.

Javonte Williams – This is too high with Gordon expected to play.

Alvin Kamara – I really want to like this play against the Jets, but Hill vultures TDs and this is a very high price.

Saquon Barkley – I don’t want to go here with Glennon at QB. Too much defensive focus on Barkley.

Ezekiel Elliott – Pollard is banged up and may not play. But Zeke is still banged up too. In theory, you’d say this points to a Zeke game, but Washington is decent against the run so this points me to a Dak game instead.

Josh Jacobs – Drake done. Richard likely out. Waller out, meaning Jacobs should get some extra passing game work as well. He’s a bit chalky, but not as much as I expected. I’ll likely lock him in for his role in a potentially high scoring game. Rare to get this role for around 7k.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Timeshare with Williams. He’s cheap and could pay off, but there are better plays.

Antonio Gibson – This is a pretty solid play, but McKissic may be back and I think the Cowboys control this one, so I’m likely looking elsewhere. If you’re stuck though and your lineup keeps pointing to Gibson, go for it.

JaMycal Hasty – Pass.

Godwin Igwebuike – Jamaal Williams was a letdown last week, ending up in a timeshare. I don’t see a path to any of the Detroit backups getting all the work, so I’ll pass on this play unless absolutely desperate to save some money.

Ty Johnson – Super cheap, but too much ownership for an RB playing the Saints. I am considering the Jets D as leverage on the Hill and Kamara ownership though, so in that scenario a Johnson + Jets stack isn’t a bad idea. This would allow you to take your pick of high-end RBs and WRs.

James Robinson – I really want to play Robinson, but Urban Meyer strikes me as the ‘stick to my guns’ type who won’t want to play Robinson after being called out for not playing Robinson. But if I’m wrong… it could be Robinson all day long! It’s a tough matchup, but the price is really great for his talent and potential role.

Joe Mixon – Seems on track to play, but a little risky at this price.

Jermar Jefferson – Pass.

Nick Chubb – Too much of a timeshare with Hunt.

Chuba Hubbard – Even at this price, I’m passing.

Devonta Freeman – This one is interesting. You’re essentially getting a workhorse RB on a team that wants to run, but this is masked by Lamar’s own rushing. Yes, you have to consider price, but look at some of the complete unknowns that are expected to be owned more than Freeman. On a week like this, this is exactly the type of under-owned play we want to target.

JD McKissic – Makes a lot of sense on DK if he plays and you think the Cowboys control the game. A Dak + McKissic lineup would be a unique starting point.

WR

Chris Godwin – Surprising to see this so high. This makes him an easy fade, instead targeting Evans at much lower ownership and much higher TD upside. A Brady + Evans stack is shaping up to be a really nice pivot from all the Fournette and Godwin ownership.

Mike Williams – His price really stands out relative to the boom performances he had early in the year. With no Keenan Allen this week, this is a great spot. I’ll be locking him in, despite the chalk.

Stefon Diggs – This is what we want to see. A big name at high ownership in the most popular game of the week. With the public all over Diggs, we can easily move down to Beasley who actually has a better matchup.

Tyreek Hill – I like this play, if it fits. I’m rolling with Jacobs so Hill makes a nice mini-stack. This is higher ownership than I’d like to see but if I’m banking on a big game from Jacobs, it’s likely Hill or Kelce has a big game. And I like some cheap TEs this week, so Hill it is.

Hunter Renfrow – If you want to fade Jacobs, Renfrow is a great pivot. Clear path to overstacking this game with something like Mahomes + Jacobs + Hill + Renfrow (or substitute Kelce).

Tee Higgins – A little cheaper than Chase below him, but I’d rather go back to Chase’s more consistent upside.

Ja’Marr Chase – This price feels like a bargain given his year and with Higgins taking some ownership away, I’ll gladly fit Chase in if I can.

D.J. Moore – Not interested in a Cam Newton WR.

Elijah Moore – Not interested in a Jets WR.

Brandin Cooks – I want to be interested, but he’s banged up and has Mills starting. I think you can play Mills alone because he’s so cheap so no need to force Cooks in. But would you rather have Cooks or Chase for $700 more?

Jarvis Landry – Look for Baker Mayfield on the QB pricing list… you’ll find him lower than Davis Mills. Of course, Mills has two games higher than any Baker game this year, but a Baker + Landry stack makes a nice unique starting point this week as well.

Julio Jones – Nope. Been burned by the Julio return-from-injury game too many times.

Deebo Samuel – If he plays, this ownership will go up quite a bit. But if he plays he’s likely to get a lot of rushing work as well, making him a near must-start. And great on the other side of a Chase mini-stack.

Mike Evans – I really want to lock in Evans at 10% ownership, but I may just skip the game entirely.

D.K. Metcalf – Take your pick, Metcalf or Lockett. Same price. Same ownership. Same negative public perception. I like Wilson and I’ll definitely stack him with one of these two, probably Lockett. Although Metcalf is still in squeaky-wheel territory, so I’d be happy with that too. One path this week is to overstack a game, so could play them both.

Tyler Lockett – See above.

Marvin Jones – If not Robinson, then… weird seeing him priced so low after his early chemistry with Lawrence. This is a great cheap WR to add if you’re paying up elsewhere.

Amari Cooper – You have Zeke hurt and a sub 7k Cooper lower owned than Marvin Jones… I’m a fan of playing Dak alone, but this is awfully tempting.

CeeDee Lamb – This is why Cooper is low, because you’re taking a guess at which Cowboys WR (or TE) gets the points, but Lamb comes in a thousand+ higher than Cooper.

Cole Beasley – I’m locking in Beasley or Knox. Both are cheap, both are super low owned in the best game environment of the week. They’re cheap enough that I won’t force a mini-stack, I’m willing to play one of these as my only exposure to this game. And both are great in a game stack.

Tre’Quan Smith – No.

Jalen Guyton – Solid option with Allen out. Another great cheap WR option.

Terry McLaurin – With Gibson having high ownership, McLaurin is a great stacking option with Dak. Same logic as Dak + McKissic, just with a better player. I’ve seen McLaurin higher in some places as he should be.

Laviska Shenault – Talented and cheap.

Kenny Golladay – No thanks.

Sterling Shepard – No thanks.

Michael Gallup – Really interesting pivot from Cooper and Lamb. Cheapest of the three WRs and getting targets. A great option if you want to stack that game or a great cheap option to fill out your lineup.

Marquise Brown – Waaaay down the list and nothing but TD upside. A little pricey, but being very overlooked this week.

TE

Travis Kelce – Good play, but missing that Kelce upside we’re used to seeing. I expect Kittle to end up as the highest owned TE (unless the Wilson chalk moves him down).

Rob Gronkowski – Make Gronk great. Again. He’s back and getting volume and redzone work. Going back to a Brady + Evans + Gronk play is a great way to attack this game if you want to go there.

Kyle Pitts – Too high still.

Foster Moreau – Not getting the same work that Waller does.

Gerald Everett – Rather target the WRs, but he’s pretty cheap.

George Kittle – This should be higher coming off last week. If Deebo is out, Kittle makes a lot of sense again. If Deebo plays though, I’ll be going elsewhere at TE.

Noah Fant – Not bad, but better options.

Mark Andrews – Sort of forgotten with all the Kelce/Gronk/Kittle/Pitts. A Lamar + Brown + Andrews stack could win you a tournament.

Austin Hooper – His backups are all hurt, so Hooper is a great target this week.

James O’Shaughnessy – Cheap, but that’s about all you can say.

Dawson Knox – Feels a little pricey, but great matchup and a great way to get exposure to this game. I’m likely either going to Knox or Hooper this week.

Others to mention: Schultz, Uzomah, Jared Cook (with Allen out), Seals-Jones. Some great pivots from some of their chalkier teammates.

DEF

Seattle Seahawks. Mills has shown some ability and they’re down their top defensive player. I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Los Angeles Chargers. This looked more attractive when Fromm was starting, but now appears Glennon will start. Still a great, cheap matchup.

Denver Broncos. Pretty good option. A one-dimensional Lions team led by Goff is a nice target for us.

New York Jets. Min-priced playing a team with Hill (with a hurt finger) at QB. Sign me up. This unlocks a lot of things in our lineups. And I don’t feel so overwhelmingly good about any other option that I’m not willing to take a shot here.

Cleveland Browns – Not my favorite play.

Carolina Panthers – Better plays this week.

Kansas City Chiefs – Okay on paper, but I’d rather take my chances with Jacobs or Renfrow and hope the Raiders put up points.

New Orleans Saints. Playing the Jets. If paying up for Kamara, I’m only doing it in a Kamara + NO stack.

Tennessee Titans – Why not? The Jaguars don’t know what they’re doing. The poor offense on the Tennessee side has me staying away from this, but you could do worse than this, although pricey.

Others to mention. Could take a shot on Houston. Could go off the board and play either Buffalo or Tampa Bay. A Fournette + Tampa Bay stack gets you unique. We know Dallas has upside. Cincinnati against a run-first team without their RB. Detroit plays tough.

The Lineup Build

This week is dealer’s choice. So many different ways to go, take your pick. Three main paths:

1. Overstack or build around unique stacks from the TB/BUF game.
2. Mostly fade TB/BUF and overstack a different game. Cowboys. Seahawks. Ravens. Chiefs.
3. Build a balanced lineup taking individual plays or mini-stacks from the less popular games. Insert x value RB here if you want.

I haven’t settled on my main lineup, but I’m leaning to a Wilson + Lockett stack. Locking in Mike Williams and Ja’Marr Chase. Prioritizing (but not locking) Knox or Beasley – depending on what I do with any SF players on the other side of Chase – I could eat the chalk with Wilson, I could go to Deebo or Aiyuk, or even to Kittle. Wilson’s popularity may be denting Kittle’s ownership enough that I go to Beasley at WR and move to Kittle at TE. If I end up at Deebo, I’ll keep Knox at TE. I like the potential upside for the price with the Jets D. With value RB options opening up, that should be a very low owned play as people will force their way up to a more expensive DEF with their remaining salary.

I like Jacobs and Freeman, but plenty of others ways you can go.

I like a Dak lineup – alone or with one of Cooper or Gallup. I like bringing back McLaurin.

I like a Lamar-naked, Ravens overstack, or Browns overstack as a non TB/BUF game stack.

And I like a Mahomes stack.

I should add that I still really like a Brady + Evans + Gronk stack as well.

With so much value available this week, don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table; it’s a natural way to make your lineup unique.

Look for a Sunday morning update as we get more clarity on a few situations.