DFS Building Blocks – Week 6

Update: All sorts of value RBs have opened up. We were already talking about Darrel Williams, and we knew Barkley was out, but now Chubb is out, McCaffrey is out, and the other D Williams is out.

So we have, in order of my preference:

Kareem Hunt. Best rushing game environment; most proven talent.

Darrel Williams. Best game environment, but we know they’re likely to focus on the passing game.

Khalil Herbert. Priced between Williams and Booker, but attached to a rotten offense. But looked good.

Devontae Booker. Toughest matchup against the Rams, but did get 3x this salary against a tough Cowboys team last week. He’s also, by far, expected to be the lowest owned of this bunch, making him an intriguing option in a tourney lineup.

Chuba Hubbard. Priced like a proven starter. He needs to match his best game and get a TD to hit value here.

I’m locking in Hunt, along with half the DFS world. It’s an easy swap with Taylor with the clear lineup build being Hunt and one of the cheap RBs, with the public preferring Herbert. This is going to lead to a lot of chalk lineups this week, so we need to find a way to differentiate some.

Keeping our Mahomes + Williams + Kelce stack (instead of Herbert) is one way.

Paying up for a second top-end RB, like Mixon, is another way. So Hunt + Mixon. If going this way, I want to add another KC WR – likely Hardman. You can also try to fit Hunt + Taylor still. If moving away from Taylor, I like adding Pittman instead. Or, if in need of salary, even taking a shot on Houston D.

If we’re passing on Herbert, we can double down and go to Green Bay defense. If you think the Bears still have some success or they’re passing a ton in garbage time, can get leverage on Herbert by going with Robinson or Mooney.

Now, with Hunt projected to be so highly owned, we have to talk about another way to differentiate – fading Hunt. In situations like these, I want to have a lineup with Hunt and a lineup without. And if we want to fully leverage a Hunt fade we can play Arizona D. Maybe they’re not the same team without Chubb and the entire offense stalls. Or if they’re in a shootout and the points don’t go to Hunt, they have to go somewhere, so can go with Baker and some WRs. We also have to keep in mind that Hunt is priced like a workhorse back already. So we really need to evaluate him against the other RBs in his same price range – players like Mixon and Taylor. Is Hunt fives time more likely than Mixon or Taylor to pay off? Absolutely not. Hunt is banged up himself, making an even more fair comparison to Mixon.

You can even play a double fade of the chalk and go with a Taylor + Mixon lineup. It’s not likely that all the value RBs bust, but this approach is definitely worthy of a tourney lineup.

And finally, you can go all chalk at RB – Hunt + Herbert – and throw in an under the radar QB/WR stack or game stack. Cousins, Darnold (even + Hubbard if you want), Wentz, Mayfield all viable in this scenario. Fields really stands out here as well as part of a stack that we already talked about.

Or just go all chalk and find one or two pieces to differentiate – we’re already there with Van Jefferson. Someone like Mooney or Robinson would also fit. This is likely where I’ll end up today. Swapping Williams for Herbert, so I can focus the rest of my build around the Chiefs passing game. I’m still tinkering though. Lot of different ways we can go this week, just pick the value RBs or the fades you like best and build around that.

Week 6

Let’s start with our bold prediction:

“Well, it’s Thursday afternoon and it’s time for a bold (or not so bold) prediction. We’ve been chasing regression on three players – Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods, and Kyle Pitts. Guess what? None of them are on the main slate this week. So wouldn’t it be just like DFS that all three have their blowup game this week?! They’re all in great spots – Diggs against Chiefs, Woods against Seahawks, and Pitts against Jets (with no Ridley and no Gage). We’ll see how they do, but I’m already accepting that they’re all going to have huge games!”

Woods went for 21 points. Not mind-blowing but easily his best game of the year and a score that would have been 3.4x his salary last week, which is right where we want him to be to win a tourney. 1 for 1.

Pitts went for 22.4 getting his first TD. 2 for 2.

Diggs only went for 7.9. Oh well, 2 for 3 on the prediction, but, the good news, we’re still in play to catch (no pun intended) Diggs’ big day!

Looking back:

We squeaked out a nice win last week after rolling the dice with Lance and Dwelley. Lance didn’t crush us, but certainly could have done better. Moore did okay, especially at .8% ownership. Boyd was a big disappointment. Henry and Mattison did what we expected. Jefferson a letdown. Adams crushed again. Vikings D was a solid, cheap play but every team seems to let the Lions back in, hurting the points allowed.

It was Brady’s week. As we thought might be the case, he showed Neil who Neil is. Coming off a relatively poor game against New England (albeit in a win) he came out and put up 5 TDs and 400+ yards. It was an otherwise weak slate last week for QB, reminding us that when you get an opportunity to get a Brady, Mahomes, Jackson, Allen at low ownership, you should take it. This is similar to week 1 when a seemingly forgotten Mahomes, Hill, Kelce stack won the day. Of course, the problem with Brady is isolating a WR or two to play with him. With Gronk out last week, it was easier – only had three real options to choose from and Brady threw two TDs to two of them, making Brady, Evans, Brown stacks really nice. Those overstacks, when they hit, can win you all the money.

On to Week 6!

Speaking of overstacks, there are a few good situations that point to overstacks this week. Chiefs, Rams, Packers, Bengals. More on those as we go. I’m writing this a bit early this week when ownership projections aren’t as solidified, so going to mix things up a bit and just focus on the players and situations I like. I’ll return Sunday morning for any updates and changes if ownership opens up any significant game theory opportunities.

QB

Pat Mahomes. This isn’t quite angry-Brady territory, but Mahomes coming off a loss should lead to a nice bounce-back here. Darrel Williams getting the start at RB should be one of the more popular plays on the slate and hopefully will take some ownership away from Mahomes and the passing game. But, whether Williams ends up popular or the passing game ends up popular, this is a great spot for an overstack of Mahomes + Williams + Kelce. Easy bring-back piece in McLaurin.

Matt Stafford. The Bucs were surely going to dominate the Dolphins last week, leaning on the run more, right? Then what happened? Brady threw 5 TDs. This Rams team is also one that will just keep throwing it. Could very easily see a 5 TD game for Stafford this week. And, following last week’s theory, Darrell Henderson should be popular this week, leaving Stafford underowned. This is a great spot for a Stafford + Kupp + Woods/Higbee or even Stafford + Henderson + Kupp. No need to force a Giants player here, but Toney or Slayton would fit nicely in a full game stack.

Taylor Heinicke. Want a Chiefs mini-stack but need to save some salary. Heinicke + McLaurin + Williams + Kelce is also a nice way to stack this game up.

Joe Burrow. Mixon is banged up still so I like a full Burrow stack here. Burrow + Chase + Higgins. I even like Boyd after his dud last week, but he doesn’t have the same upside as Chase and Higgins. Especially on DK, can come back with Swift on the other side of this stack.

Justin Fields. He’s going to get there one of these days, why not be early to the party? Makes a great stack with Robinson or Mooney and can come back with Jones or Adams. Or even a full game stack of Fields + Jones + Adams + Robinson + Mooney. Again, last week was a week to go more balanced, this week is a week to take a shot on a game stack.

RB

Jonathan Taylor. First on my list this week in a great spot against Houston. Makes a nice stack with Colts D. He had a big receiving TD last week, but we haven’t really seen a big rushing performance from him. This could be the week.

Darrel Williams. Edwards-Helaire wasn’t exactly dominating in the Chiefs pass-heavy offense, but we’ve seen Wiliams have success when given the chance. And he’s priced way too cheap. On FD, we still see Hubbard at 6,900 and Booker, in a similar spot (but worse matchup) at 5,900. We see AJ Dillon in a backup / complementary role at 5,400. Then Williams all the way down at 5,200. Just as cheap on DK. Highest implied team total of the week, should have a great shot at 3x his salary.

Aaron Jones. He’s always in play for the leverage he provides against Adams’ ownership.

D’Andre Swift. Should see a ton of passing game volume as they try to keep up with the Bengals.

Darrell Henderson. He may be popular playing the little Giants. He’s priced too high to be a top play for me, but I do like him as part of an overstack as mentioned above or even just stacked with Rams D. This also feels like a sneaky spot for Sony Michel instead, but he should definitely be played with the Rams D. This would be a sneaky (but still risky) pivot from the more popular Darrel Williams play. If you stack up Mahomes and Kelce and some other studs, you might need to take a flier on Michel + Rams to make your lineup work.

Joe Mixon. Mixon is still hurt and you know I like a Burrow stack, but Detroit is a great matchup and Mixon should get all the work he can handle. Keep an eye on his status, but if healthy-ish this is a nice spot. Could even swap one of the WRs from him in a full Burrow stack. Overstacks everywhere this week. Depending on ownership, this might be a sneaky spot to get pivot away from Taylor. Or even pair with Taylor pivoting away from the value RBs.

Hines/Mack. Both get honorable mention for the same reason Michel does. If this game gets out of hand they could see a lot of time. Mack fits this story better than Hines though.

WR

Cooper Kupp / Robert Woods. Take your pick. Or both. A Stafford + Kupp + Woods stack is probably my secondary lineup this week, but I may try to get a piece of the passing game into my main lineup as well through either Kupp or Woods. Or even Higbee.

Ja’Marr Chase. We talked a couple weeks ago about how the public is getting better about not chasing points. They’re likely to see Chase’s more expensive salary this week and won’t play him after a big week last week. But we’re playing the best plays. Anytime you can get the best play at lower ownership than what he deserves, it’s a great spot. Will be trying to get Chase into my main lineup, but it may be tough to do.

Tee Higgins. Not as good a spot as Chase, but right there. And cheaper. He’s still a forgotten name just one game back from injury, but a really good spot as well this week.

Tyler Boyd. Doesn’t have the upside of the other two but always (usually) a decent volume play. Could be a bounce-back spot after last week’s letdown.

Terry McLaurin. I’m looking to a Mahomes stack in my main lineup, so no brainer to play McLaurin also. He should be popular given how bad the Chiefs defense has been. He’s fine as a stand-alone play if you want, but if he’s having a huge game, the Chiefs probably are too, so I prefer him in a game stack. If not going to the Chiefs, can take the leverage and pivot to another WR.

Keenan Allen. Mostly getting to double digits this year, just not finding the end zone. That’s not really his game with Mike Williams getting the big plays and their giant TEs getting looks in the end zone as well. But, Williams is banged up and I like Allen to get there this week. Always an even better play on DK.

Allen Robinson / Darnell Mooney. Both super cheap. Robinson a little hurt though, so keep an eye on his status. Should get a lot of volume trying to keep up with the Packers. Although this overall game isn’t likely to be a shootout.

Michael Pittman. I’d rather focus on Taylor in this game, but Pittman is also in a nice spot and is the clear number one for the Colts. This is even a spot where you can go Wentz + Taylor + Pittman. And don’t even need to bring back a Houston player, so could add Colts D.

Josh Gordon. I’ve never been on the draft Josh Gordon bandwagon, but in DFS he always seems to show up. Even in his first couple games back. This time could be different, but with Hill potentially banged up and already targeting a Mahomes stack, this would be a good flier on a low owned piece of the offense.

Mecole Hardman. Imagine how much it must hurt to put up 12.1 points against Buffalo D, then find yourself priced the same as Josh Gordon? Yes, I’m willing to take a flier on Gordon, but would much rather have Hardman sitting at the same price. Especially if Hill misses. Hardman may become chalk, which is scary as he tends to disappoint. But we know he can get there in one play.

Van Jefferson. This is a great spot to get a high upside player on an explosive offense at low ownership. This may be the piece I try to add to my main lineup, because the price is right and he has two-TD upside.

Amon-Ra St. Brown. This was a sleeper pick before the season and he’s seeing targets. One of these weeks they’ll pay off. If going to a Burrow stack this may be the lone Detroit piece (aside from Swift) that you can use. Riskier, but perhaps higher upside is Kalif Raymond if you want to take a flier there.

KJ Osborn. Not a situation I’m targeting, but everyone is hurt. So even if Jefferson and Thielen both play Osborn could see more work.

Jalen Guyton. If Williams misses or is hurt, he’s shown big-play upside and would be too cheap for his role. Only if Williams misses though. Or just throwing in a lottery-ticket type of lineup.

TE

Travis Kelce, of course. Hill scored three TDs last time we called for a Kelce game. But we’re calling our shot again. This is a Kelce game. We’ll be paying up for Mahomes and Kelce and hoping others don’t.

Darren Waller. Always in play and could be overlooked in a tougher matchup.

Dalton Schultz. I’m not playing anyone from this game, just pointing out that he’s the third most expensive TE in this crazy game of DFS.

TJ Hockenson. I want to like it, but he’s back to needing to show he’s at full strength first. If you’re stuck though and want to throw him into a Burrow stack, probably okay.

Mark Andrews. Had his big game last week, no reason he can’t have another.

Tyler Higbee. Great way to get cheaper exposure to the Rams offense.

Tyler Conklin. Similar to Osborn above, may get more looks with the others banged up and he’s shown two-TD upside.

Ricky Seals-Jones. I don’t really love this play, just pointing it out as a potential leverage pivot off of McLaurin if you’re spending up elsewhere and need to save at TE. Matchup is great.

Jack Doyle. Getting targets. If you’re not going to Taylor this would be a good way to naturally build a differentiated lineup. You’d be getting leverage off a popular RB and would end up with a lineup of stars at RB and WR, where others will be going to value RBs this week.

DEF

Rams. So many hurt Giants. Rams defense hasn’t had a blowup game this season. This could be it. This can be stacked with Stafford and WRs or with Henderson.

Colts. Hopefully people shy away from this after Davis Mills did better than expected against New England. I’ll be targeting Colts or Rams depending on where I go at RB. If Taylor, Colts. If Henderson, Rams.

Packers. Can take a flier on Fields as mentioned above, but can also take a shot on Green Bay defense that has an equally good shot at shutting down the Bears.

Chiefs. Heinicke is doing okay and the Chiefs defense is not. But you always get some surprises and this is as good a spot as any for the Chiefs to try to turn it around on defense with some big plays. Bonus is they’re always in the mix for return TDs as well.

Washington. Popular before the season and if you’re completely fading the Chiefs offense, you’re likely seeing the Washington D have some success. Not a top play certainly, but not a bad min-priced flier. You’d be getting huge leverage on the field if this scenario plays out. I may use this and maybe Antonio Gibson in a Rams lineup stack that fades Darrel Williams and all other Chiefs.

The Lineup Build

I like several different paths this week. Can really target any of the game stacks I talked about above. DFS is a high variance game – build your roster well and hope your game turns into a shootout. The key is building your roster in a way that tells a story that matches the expected game scenario. Expect Taylor to have a big day? Likely the Colts D also does well. Expect the Rams to blowout the Giants? Then maybe Michel gets more work and pays off. Maybe Van Jefferson gets a couple of big plays. Pair one or both of these with the Rams D when everyone else is focused on Kupp and Woods and you’re on your way to a big payday. Now, you can just as easily tell the story that the Rams get out to a big lead because of Kupp and Woods. You’re never going to get every situation right, just know what story your lineup is telling.

I’m starting my main with Mahomes + Darrel Williams + Kelce. QB + RB + WR is an underrated, nontraditional stack when a team is expected to score a lot of points.  We saw it with the Cowboys and Chargers last week. And several spots we can use it this week as well. I’m adding Taylor + Colts. I’m adding McLaurin to fill out my Chiefs game stack. This leaves me just filling out my roster with whatever I can fit, but trying to do it in a smart way. I can fit Higgins or Boyd to get a piece of the Bengals passing game. I can fit Van Jefferson to get a piece of the Rams offense. Then I can add Toney, Robinson, or Mooney. Right now I’m on Robinson hoping his talent wins out. But those three give you some salary flexibility in the flex and allow you to move up or down some on your other WRs if you want.

My secondary lineup will definitely be a Stafford + Kupp + Woods (and maybe my third lineup a Michel + Jefferson + Rams D). I can keep my Williams + Kelce stack. I have to sacrifice Taylor but I can add Pittman to get exposure there. Then I’m left filling out my second RB and flex. I can use Mixon since I’m losing my Bengals WR piece as well. Then at flex I can double (or triple) down on my Chiefs mini-stack with Hardman or Gordon. This is with the Rams D, but I can also drop down to a cheaper D and upgrade at flex. I’ll be tinkering with this one.

This lineup could even swap Higbee for Kelce giving us a four-man Rams stack and then paying up for RBs, which would be a nice way to be different this week, although I don’t love any of the premium RBs. You can pay up for Taylor and Mixon here, then also add Higgins in a Bengals mini-stack.

After these, I’d be building a Heinicke lineup, a Burrow stack, and a Fields stack.