DFS Building Blocks – Week 5

11:30 AM update: Dalvin Cook is OUT. Mattison becomes a must play. Easy swap from D Harris to Mattison, but also bump up your Cousins + Mattison + Jefferson lineups.

Sunday morning update:

We have a bit more clarity about the slate. Jimmy G is out, Trey Lance is in. Kittle is also out.

Dalvin Cook is a “true” game-time decision, making both him and Mattison stay-away pieces, but also making both him and Mattison great tourney options in deeper lineups. It’s a tremendous running game matchup for the Vikings, so Cook could still score well at very little ownership or Mattison could score well in a Vikings blowout at very little ownership. I would normally target Mattison in a spot like this, but he’s priced the same as Damien Harris on both FD and DK, so playing Mattison would be getting too cute when Harris has an equally good matchup, with a more clear path to points.

TE is the tourney shifting spot this week. We can play it one of two ways:

1. Pay up for Waller and hope he crushes, destroying all other non-Waller lineups. You can also run a player like Schultz who has shown two-TD upside already this season or Engram who has a history of volume (when not hurt).
2. Assume 90% of lineups are going to have a bust (or low-scoring TE) and just grab a cheap TE, hope to keep pace with the crowd, and differentiate your lineup elsewhere. With so much money on Henry, Adams, and Jefferson this is where we’ll be going and likely where a lot of the public will be going as well.

It’s very difficult to fit Henry, Adams, and Jefferson into a lineup without forcing some scary pieces. We’re going scary, but this is also a great week to make a more balanced lineup if you want go that route. There are no clear paths this week, making all sorts of lineups (if built well) feasible. This is a week to reduce the amount of money you play and have fun with some lottery-ticket type of lineups.

Really like Cousins + Jefferson, Rodgers + Adams, Tannehill + Henry + Brown… or even Lawrence or Burrow on the other sides. But each of those come with risk. Cook + Mattison get enough work to take away from Cousins’ upside. Aaron Jones has a good enough matchup to take away from Rodgers’ upside. The Jaguars are a total bust and neither Henry or Brown need to get enough work to really pay off. So with each of those having downside, I’m going to take on way more downside than I’d normally like to and just play Trey Lance. Not really a price discount on him, but his ownership level seems okay and his rushing upside and big-play upside do make him a good tourney candidate. Now, it’s just as likely that ARI D ends up being the play of the week, so tread lightly here.

So I’m starting Lance and pairing him with Dwelley. We’ve seen these situations before where a backup QB thrust into the starting lineup leans on the players they’ve been working with – Dwelley fits the bill here and, as fate would have it, is also starting with Kittle on IR now. Last week, Dwelley had one catch for one TD. I like that efficiency!

I’m able to lock in Henry and D Harris, but I have to sacrifice New England D. I went into the week wanting to play Hockenson but he’s banged up enough still that I’ll just drop down to the Vikings D instead.

I still want pieces of my initial stacks, so I can add Jefferson and Adams, coming back with Boyd on the other side.

Plenty of “okay” options for the flex. I like R Moore on the other side of Dwelley. But I also like a double stack adding Aiyuk, then replacing either Jefferson or Adams with Hopkins. Or you could replace Boyd with Green, Kirk, or Moore. If replacing Jefferson, you could also take a shot on Mattison, replacing Harris.

So, that’s where I’m going and a lot of other options if you like something better. Remember, no one can predict all the right players, pick “good” plays (not necessarily players) in a well-built lineup that tells a reasonable story and you’re putting yourself on the right path to profit. In the end, follow your heart, that’s what I always do.

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Well, it’s Thursday afternoon and it’s time for a bold (or not so bold) prediction. We’ve been chasing regression on three players – Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods, and Kyle Pitts. Guess what? None of them are on the main slate this week. So wouldn’t it be just like DFS that all three have their blowup game this week?! They’re all in great spots – Diggs against Chiefs, Woods against Seahawks, and Pitts against Jets (with no Ridley and no Gage). We’ll see how they do, but I’m already accepting that they’re all going to have huge games!

Update: Woods went for 21 points. Not mind-blowing but easily his best game of the year and a score that would have been 3.4x his salary last week, which is right where we want him to be to win a tourney. We’ll call this prediction 1 for 1 so far.

Update: It’s 30 minutes into the Sunday morning game and Pitts has a TD. No recount necessary, I’m calling this 2 for 2 on our predictions now.

Looking back to last week, this was my main lineup:

There they are – Diggs, Woods, and Pitts. Diggs did okay, just missing that TD regression. Woods salvaged his day at the end of the game. Pitts was just the pits all day, in a game that saw Cordarrelle Patterson get three TDs.

As for the rest of our lineup, Hurts did great, but the correlation play of Kelce, well, did not. We saw his backup get a TD and we saw Tyreek Hill get 3 TDs. What did we say last week – we said it was a Kelce game, not a Hill game. Ouch. But, as you can see above from the ownership percentages (from a high-stakes contest) the sharp money in the industry was on a Kelce game as well. Right call, just wrong result.

AJ Green got an early TD leaving a lot of potential for a bigger game at tiny ownership.

Zeke did what we expected and the Cowboys D was fine in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.

Gibson was a letdown in a 34 -30 win. In the end, went with Zeke and Gibson instead of Taylor because their best O-line guy was put on IR last weekend. Hopefully you stuck with Taylor, but he was only about four points higher than Gibson anyway.

On to Week 5!

I’m going to start this week with my early lineup build, then we’ll see where we land at the end of the week.

Rodgers and Adams, coming back with a Cincy WR. Locking in Cook (hoping it’s not a total blowout and he sits) and coming back with Hockenson, hoping for a bounce-back. I’m going to add the RB+DEF pairing of Harris and New England. And then I’m going to see what WR/WR I can fit from SF/ARI. The SF side of this is the shakiest so far, so we’ll see if I land on just one WR from that game or pick a WR/WR from a different, under-the-radar game instead or two individual WRs from other games instead. And we’ll have to monitor Cook and Hockenson’s injury status.

QB

Dak Prescott. I think people are seeing the high total and Dallas having the highest implied team total on the slate and just locking on to the perception that Dallas is a passing team. We talked about this in Week 2. Before Dak got hurt last year, the Cowboys were putting up a ton of points because they were playing from way behind. Then Week 1 this year, playing one of the toughest run D’s in the league, they were predictably passing like crazy as well. But they want to run to set up the pass, not the other way around. It was a Zeke game last week – and also a Dak game – but this game sets up to be another Zeke game, with Dak likely not getting the 3x salary we need.

Tom Brady. Always in play and maybe he wants to show Neil who Neil is. Or show Mac Jones. Whatever. He’s hit 3x this salary three out of four times this year, but I just don’t think he’ll need to put up a big score. This should be a Tampa D and maybe Fournette and Jones game. Unless angry Brady wants to throw four TDs.

Kyler Murray. Rushing upside and a team that’s on fire. I struggle seeing San Fran keeping up in this game, so either that means Murray gets them out to a big game or their defense does well enough that Murray doesn’t have to do as much as he normally does. No giant reason not to play him, but I’ll be going elsewhere probably. May target a couple WRs from this game.

Kirk Cousins. If Cook is out, this could be a Cousins week. Cousins + Mattison + Jefferson would be a nice way to get leverage on all the Mattison ownership. If Cook does play, this could be a Cousins week… Jefferson will be high on my list either way, so depending on the rest of the build could land on a Cousins + Jefferson lineup.

Daniel Jones. Rushing upside, but really lacking weapons against a tough Dallas D.

Joe Burrow. Interesting option with Mixon banged up. My initial lineup above could just as easily be Burrow + WR + Adams instead of Rodgers.

Justin Herbert. Will be staying away from this game and it’s likely a low-scoring fight.

Trevor Lawrence. One of these days he’s going to put up a big score playing catch-up, and it will come at a low price. If following the crowd to Henry this week, this would be a good way to build a stack to get some leverage on Henry’s high ownership level. Lawrence will no doubt do everything he can to try to win, but the rest of the team… they’re not exactly motivated to win right now. A messy loss might get them the new coach they want.

Aaron Rodgers. Adams is going to be really popular and will be a fine play alone, but if salary allows, I’m likely to stack him with Rodgers. Stacking is a great way to correlate points while also getting some uniqueness on a roster with a popular play like Adams.

Ryan Tannehill. We’ve talked about Tannehill as a great pivot off of Henry a few times. This week he gets AJ Brown back and, with no Julio, it makes it even easier to focus our stack. I’ll definitely have a Tannehill + Brown lineup, maybe even a Tannehill + Henry + Brown lineup.

Justin Fields. No thanks. I get it, sort of. He’s super cheap and, in theory, has rushing upside. But I’m not there yet.

Derek Carr. Hard to believe Fields is more popular than Carr in the same game. I expect Carr to want to bounce back some this week, but I also expect the Raiders to run the ball. I won’t be going here because the upside we need probably isn’t there.

Jacoby Brissett. No thanks.

Mac Jones. Not this week. They should return to running the ball, making Harris a great option.

Jared Goff. I’m hoping Hockenson is healthy so I can take a shot on a Lion opposite a Vikings WR. I’ll be hoping Goff can do enough to make one pass catcher productive, but I don’t expect him to have enough upside on his own.

Baker Mayfield. Low-scoring game and they want to run.

Sam Darnold. I don’t hate this play in a nice matchup, but he’s starting to be priced up. Can be paired with Moore. If CMC returns this week, this could take more attention away from Darnold too, making him a solid ownership play.

Trey Lance. No thanks. Remember my GPS example… it knows. I think Jimmy G starts anyway, but even if he misses, Lance needs to prove it first.

Jalen Hurts. Hurts could just as easily pair with Moore and doesn’t need a WR from his own team because of his rushing upside. I expected this to be more popular based on last week, but his price is keeping the excitement down.

RB

Derrick Henry. So much for his ownership dropping after not crushing last week. He’s in a great spot, with the only real fear being the Titans getting out to too much of a lead. Might find a way to move up to Henry and avoid the injury uncertainty of Cook, which would also make it easier to prioritize Jefferson.

Dalvin Cook. Perfect scenario… if he was healthy. But it’s such a good scenario that they probably don’t need to push him and will use Mattison a lot too, taking away from Cook’s upside.

Saquon Barkley. Tempting but he’s priced up almost to where Zeke is and I’d much rather take Zeke as the favorite. Barkley will need to get involved in the passing game too though, if the Giants are going to have any chance, so he’s playable, but not a priority.

Austin Ekeler. I’m passing in a tough matchup.

Najee Harris. King of RB volume, but this team is really struggling and is playing a tough Denver D. Perhaps interested on DK, but passing on FD.

Leonard Fournette. This is a great leverage play on all the Brady ownership. But Ronald Jones is still alive and this seems like a spot where they could keep building his confidence back up as well.

Aaron Jones. Can always go off, but I think this is a clear Rodgers + Adams game.

Alvin Kamara. If they want to win, they have to get him more involved, but he just doesn’t have the upside we want right now.

D’Andre Swift. Swift continues to be a great DK play with his passing volume. Could go Jefferson + Swift on DK. On FD, I’m probably looking elsewhere.

Ezekiel Elliott. His price is up $1,000 on FD after dropping $800 last week. This is a great spot, and while not really getting the salary discount anymore, it’s a great ownership play off of Dak.

Damien Harris. Sign me up. I’m locking in Harris before people remember that Mac Jones isn’t Tom Brady and Bill wants to run the ball. No reason not to against Houston. I’ll be locking in Harris + NE.

Few others to discuss:

James Robinson. Interesting option and they need to run him.

Nick Chubb. Chubb and Hunt just taking too much away from each other.

Damien Williams. Have to talk about Williams with Montgomery out. Needs 100 yards and a TD to hit 3x value and would really need two TDs to make us regret not playing him. I’ll be staying away, especially if his popularity rises.

Chase Edmonds. Okay on DK, but not on FD.

Christian McCaffrey. Good under-the-rader spot on DK, if he’s back, as people are likely to shy away from him. Passing on Chuba again.

Josh Jacobs. A Jacobs + LV stack would be pretty nice, just worried about his health.

Eli Mitchell. Cheap and has upside in a pace-up game environment. This would be a great (albeit lower floor) pivot off Damien Williams. Also a great pivot off any SF passing game pieces as it’s not traditional to play an RB from the underdog.

JD McKissic in play if you think Gibson is hurt worse than he’s saying or if you think New Orleans takes a lead and McKissic gets a lot of passing work.

WR

Davante Adams. Lock him in.

Justin Jefferson. I guess I’m not sneaking up on anyone with my talk of Jefferson above. Think about the game environment that has Cook number two in RB popularity and Jefferson number two in WR popularity. This could be a full Vikings stack, or you pick one of Cook or Jefferson hoping one way overperforms, hurting the owners of the other. Or you drop down to Osborn and hope to hurt owners of both. If Cook and Jefferson bust, you leapfrog a lot of the crowd. All that said, in our main, likely still targeting one of the two.

CeeDee Lamb. Don’t like the upside this week, prefer Zeke.

Antonio Brown. If you’re on Brady, someone has to catch the ball, but Brady just spreads it so much that I’m willing to play Brady naked or even just take a flier on something like Fournette + TB.

Laviska Shenault. Nice option if you’re bringing back a player on a Henry or AJ Brown lineup.

Adam Thielen. Rather have Jefferson or Osborn this week.

Amari Cooper. See Lamb above.

Keenan Allen. Staying away from this game.

D.J. Moore. Very nice option this week, with or without Darnold, but priced like an elite play now too. This might be a pay up to be different spot.

Mike Evans. Always under owned for his talent and his upside in the red zone.

Tee Higgins. Nice option, but I’m waiting a week since he’s coming back from injury.

Tyler Boyd. Boyd doesn’t typically have huge upside, but he’s the likely piece I’ll use opposite Adams.

Chris Godwin. Again, take your pick of any Tampa WR and hope you get lucky.

Deebo Samuel. Would rather take a flier on Aiyuk (if you’re not first, you’re last) than pay up for Deebo.

DeAndre Hopkins. Big name, but not getting the upside we need. Although after a let down last week, we could definitely see him get more love this week. If you can fit him, I wouldn’t be against making him part of an ARI/SF WR/WR stack.

Ja’Marr Chase. Rather have Boyd.

Marvin Jones. Solid option, but I’ll take the discount and explosiveness of Shenault.

Will Fuller. No thanks. (And on IR now, another tough break.)

Terry McLaurin. Crushed last week again and could this week as well, but I think Washington is in a let down spot this week.

Diontae Johnson. Will get volume, but tough matchup that probably doesn’t see anyone get enough points.

K.J. Osborn. Nice, cheap way to get a high-upside piece of the Vikings. Bonus is all the ownership leverage you get on Cook and Jefferson. I wouldn’t force it, but it’s a nice game theory play on a few lineups.

Jakobi Meyers. Not enough volume this week.

Kenny Golladay. Going against the best corner in the history of the world (so far this year) in Diggs. I’ll pass.

Jaylen Waddle. Not attracted to any Dolphins, even with garbage time.

Brandin Cooks. Needs perfect scenario to get his 3x and likely won’t get there even with garbage time.

Others worth discussing:

Allen Robinson. You know I’m against all Bears, but in a deep tourney lineup, Robinson is way too cheap for his talent.

Brandon Aiyuk. Boom or bust pick that comes with a low price and super low ownership level. Just what we like in tournaments, but not a priority.

AJ Brown. Great time to play Brown at tiny ownership. If he goes crazy and Henry ownership busts, that’s how we leapfrog our way to first place.

Rondale Moore. This is my most likely ARI target. Cheap, low ownership. High team total. Boom or bust target, like Aiyuk, but a higher floor.

TE. Ouch.

Going to limit this section to a few plays I’m willing to consider as it’s bleak.

Cameron Brate is popular, but you’re banking on Brady locking on to one player, which usually doesn’t happen. That said, he’s too cheap for a starting role in a high-powered offense. You’re basically guessing on any non-Waller TE this week, so might as well guess on one that is cheap and has Brady throwing him the ball.

George Kittle. Not likely to play, but if he does it’s a nice way to get exposure to this game.

Darren Waller. Always in play, especially on DK, but he’s not seeing the upside the last few weeks. We know he can breakout any week though and if he did it this week, he’d be a big differentiator at TE.

TJ Hockenson. I really want to go here as a comeback on a Cook or Jefferson or Osborn lineup, just depends on his health.

Tyler Conklin is in play for the same reasons as Osborn. Great leverage on all the Cook and Jefferson lineups.

Anthony Firkser. Just a boom or bust (been mostly bust) option to get leverage on Henry ownership.

Evan Engram. Once a lock for volume, this could be a spot where he sees a lot of work. I’m normally scared by his injury risk, but with the lack of other options, he’s not a bad play here, especially on the other side of a Zeke lineup.

After this, a number of cheap plays if you’re just throwing a dart on someone, but I’ll likely be at Brate, Hockenson, and Conklin. If I find enough savings elsewhere, I like just paying up for Waller.

DEF

Las Vegas. This makes sense; good option at home against Fields.

Houston. Maybe people didn’t watch Mac Jones dissect Tampa’s defense on Monday night. No thanks.

New Orleans. Okay option, but both teams stink right now.

Pittsburgh. Would rather play Denver on the other side.

Washington. Gets the Jameis bonus, but they haven’t been good.

Minnesota. I like this in a Cook/Mattison + MIN lineup.

New England. Lower ownership because they’re the most expensive. I’ll pay up for Belichick against Davis Mills. I’m locking it in, unless I’m absolutely forced to save salary, but really no salary-saving option I like outside of Minnesota.

Dallas. Solid, but not a great option this week.

Arizona. This is interesting in a game that I think SF struggles in.

The Lineup Build

I still like my original build, but I’m not loving any SF piece in a WR/WR stack. Aiyuk fits the bill as a pure boom or bust play though. And I’m just not convinced Cook and Hockenson get enough work in a potential blowout. Even if Cook plays, this seems like the blowout will just come from the passing game, trying to hide Cook from further injury.

I’m also tinkering with some Tannehill and Lawrence lineups. Lawrence is cheap and allows me to bump up from Cook to Henry and then I can just go to Brate at TE. On that note, I can basically keep my original build and also go from up Cook to Henry and down from Hockenson to Brate. That’s on the table for me as my potential top lineup still. It has a couple scary pieces, but when we’re trying to win first place, we should have some scary (but playable) pieces.

I’m locking in Adams, Harris, New England everywhere.

This is a week where you’ll want to check back Sunday morning for any changes as we know more about injury statuses, and I keep tinkering tomorrow.

Some stacks I like in deeper tourney lineups:

Cousins + Mattison + Jefferson

Tannehill + Brown + Jones/Shenault

Tannehill + Henry + Brown + Jones/Shenault

D Harris + NE

Burrow + Boyd + Adams

Lawrence + Henry + Jones/Shenault

Darnold + Moore

Hurts + Moore

Jacobs + LV

Jacobs + Robinson

Carr + Waller

Carr + Waller + Robinson

Fournette + TB

Fournette + Jones + TB

Jones + TB

Swift + Jefferson (on DK)

N Harris + Fant (on DK)