Week 16 FD Building Blocks
Out of the season-long playoffs now? Let’s try to make you a DFS winner this week. Winning DFS is a mix of gut and logic. You need some gut calls that make you feel uncomfortable. And you need logic to tell when you to play or fade the chalk. Last week, my gut was wrong, but my logic was right. Jalen Hurts ended up being the million-dollar QB. My gut said he’d have a bad game. But my logic said he was too cheap and had too much rushing upside to ignore. I also wanted some high-priced players, which put Hurts more into the salary range I was looking for. Alas, I stuck with Brady as my QB. He did fine, got his 3x value, but we needed the monster week of Hurts or Tannehill to really have a shot.
My gut said Pollard wasn’t a slam dunk. My logic said he was too cheap as a backup thrust into the starting lineup. I went with my gut, sadly.
My gut and logic said fade Akers. That one worked out. It’s tricky stuff. Just have to keep plugging away putting yourself in good positions and the odds will go in your favor one of these days.
On to Week 16.
My first glance gut-feel this week… Wilson against the Rams. He’s coming off a couple duds. The Rams have a good defense. No one is expecting a shootout, but wouldn’t it be just like the NFL to have this game turn into a shootout? Strange things happen in the NFL. Steelers go undefeated, then lose three in a row. Sometimes the Jets win. Speaking of that…
Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie, and sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose.
Bonus points if you know what that’s from.
I don’t know if I’ll actually play Wilson, because all the logic in the world says not to, but you never know.
My first glance logic-feel (can logic have a feel?)… Trubisky is popular, Montgomery is popular, Robinson is popular, Bears DEF is popular. Something has to give. Pick a spot to fade. No matter how the game goes, it’s likely a good chunk of the public will be upset and you’ll have some leverage. Fade them all and stack the Jaguars if you want to go wild.
Mahomes will be popular, but for good reason. This Atlanta team does seem to outperform in strange spots though, so might pump the brakes some. Still, I don’t see them going to Bell a bunch, so it’s Mahomes or bust.
Watson versus Cincinnati is attractive. People will lean toward David Johnson some, and I may go that way too. Cooks and Coutee individually have tough matchups, so they may try to lean on the run more.
Herbert due for a nice bounce back.
Hurts is right there again. More expensive now and more popular, but still not too high in either case. And he’s playing Dallas. I don’t know if I can put my money on him doing it a third week in a row, but I don’t really see any reason he can’t.
Trubisky still relatively cheap and gets a great matchup. He’s still Trubisky though… but if it’s looking like Montgomery is getting more attention, I may fire up a Trubisky + Robinson stack.
Dalton? The Cowboys are in a must-win. That means the Eagles will win somewhere around 27 to 3. Book it.
It seems like Alex Smith is likely to play. At only $6,700 he’s worth a look. McLaurin may be out, so clear stacking partner with Logan Thomas who will get as many passes as he can handle.
Chubb and Hunt are both a bit expensive for me this week.
Montgomery has been on fire and has a good matchup. But, have to pick your poison. He’ll be the most popular RB of the week, making me lean toward Trubisky.
Sanders should be fairly popular, but attention on Hurts might take some ownership away, making him a decent start.
Ekeler has a good price and good matchup, but I’m more likely to go against the grain and turn to Herbert.
David Johnson probably isn’t as popular as he should be, especially with Duke Johnson out.
Gordon worth a look again, especially coming back in a Herbert stack.
Pollard (and Zeke) is a pass for me. Could I be wrong again? Sure. But these are exactly the types of games the Cowboys ROUTINELY disappoint in.
Giants DEF is decent against the run but Dobbins still seems underpriced. If Jackson doesn’t vulture him, he could easily hit his value. And he gives you the salary savings you need in other spots.
I don’t love Bernard here, but you have to give him a look at his price. If you go with the Watson side, Bernard my option to come back with. Game theory (my best friend) says Bernard is way too cheap and way too under-owned this week.
Henderson or Brown worth a shot with Akers out, but you’re guessing which will get the work. A better way may be to target Woods or Kupp in the passing game instead.
Robinson is the first one that has my interest, keep an eye on his status though. If he’s out or seems to actually be hobbled, I’m likely off the Bears completely.
Easy to say play WRs against Seattle. Woods is fine and not priced too high. Same with Kupp.
Landry stands out as a decent mid-priced option. Higgins too. Mayfield may turn out be a nice QB pick by default.
Johnson and Guyton on watch in case Allen doesn’t play.
Is it AJ Green time? Boyd out, perhaps we go to the non-traditional RB + WR mini-stack.
Sammy Watkins has me interested. He’s getting the snaps and the public will go to Hill and Kelce. If you’re going to Mahomes (or even if not) Watkins makes sense as a pivot.
With McLaurin out, Sims has to be looked at for only $5,000. McKissic will get a lot of work in the passing game but a Smith + Sims + Thomas stack looks pretty decent.
Nothing on paper says play Anthony Miller, but if Robinson is banged up, the matchup is there, and we may finally see Miller get some volume.
Peoples-Jones worth a look if you’re going with a Mayfield stack.
Kelce going to be the most popular option again. Always deserving of it. If you’re going here, I’d make it part of a Mahomes + Watkins + Kelce stack. But he’s fine to add alone too, just be aware that he’s priced up to the point that he’s never hit 3x this price this season. All signs point to him doing it this week, just know it’s not a gimme.
Logan Thomas won’t be a surprise to anyone, but he makes sense.
Graham or Kmet could benefit if Robinson banged up, but you’re guessing which one.
Hooper makes sense against the Jets and he is pretty cheap. Maybe in my top 3 this week.
If Cooks and Coutee don’t have the best individual matchups, have to look at Akins.
Last week there were a ton of good options. Doesn’t feel the same this week.
Ravens and Bears will be popular. Ravens seem like the easy, obvious pick so should be the most popular this week.
I always end up disappointed when I bank on playing a defense against the Jaguars. They just seem to hang around and put up enough points to not make it worth it.
The two that stand out to me are Washington and Philadelphia. Bridgewater takes care of the ball, but Washington is pretty good. And I’m already going all-in on a Cowboys disappointment, so might as well go the full measure. I’m a Cowboys fan, by the way. It hurts, pun intended. Eagles are cheaper, which is the tie-breaker for me.
The Lineup Build
I think I’m heading to Watson + Akins + Bernard (and maybe even + Green/Higgins) as my primary. I’ll probably add a Sanders + Eagles mini-stack. If paying up, I do like the Dobbins + Ravens stack too.
My secondary build will be Mahomes + Watkins + Kelce. And I’m not sure I’ll come back with any Falcons. I’ll add David Johnson here as a hedge on my other lineup. Depending on the other pieces, this lineup may move into my primary spot. Just see what you like best as you add in the other pieces.
If I’m adding a third, based on gut-feel, may go with a LAR/SEA stack. May go Goff or Wilson, depending on what the lineups look like. Prefer Lockett in both cases.
After that, I like the Trubisky + Robinson stack. And like a Smith + Thomas stack.