Week 15 FD Building Blocks
Going to change things up a bit and start with the lineup build based on my initial thoughts coming into the week, then we’ll see if anything changes as I work through the article.
Lot of talk about Cam Akers this week. I drafted Akers in a lot of leagues this year; as such, he’s now on a lot of my consolation bracket rosters. But that’s season-long. In daily fantasy, we need to have short memories. All we care about is that today Akers is healthy and is getting most of the RB work in LA. He’s only $6,700 this week and is lumped in around some names that are not as good talent-wise or performance-wise. We’re still getting the benefit of Akers poor early-season performance in this cheap price. So, does he have the talent? Yes. Are the Rams the biggest favorites on the slate? Yes. Are the Rams playing at home? Yes. He fits all the normal checkmarks to be a lock-and-load RB, but…
What if he busts? He’ll be the most highly-owned RB this week, approaching 30 to 40% ownership. We have the same situation we saw a couple weeks ago with Booker, except is Akers is better and more proven than Booker and, as a result, more expensive than Booker was. Guess who the Raiders were playing that week? The same Jets team the Rams are facing. That week I was all-in on a Carr + Waller lineup as a way to fade all the Booker ownership. That paid off handsomely. Booker was an okay play that week, Akers is a better play this week. But it’s easier to pass on the Jets than it is to run on them – Jets are a top-ten rush defense and a bottom-two passing defense. At such high ownership and with the Jets defense funneling things to the pass, it’s very easy to make the case that fading Akers is the right play this week, instead going with a Goff + Woods/Kupp or even Everett lineup. That’s where I’ll be going in one of my top two lineups. NOTE: If you are going with Akers, you MUST pair him with the Rams Defense. The Rams should be the most popular DEF this week, but not everyone will be playing the RB + DEF correlation. That will give you some leverage on the individual Akers and Rams ownership.
The other spot I’m going to as I hear things this week is back to Russell Wilson. Yes, Washington’s defense is legit, but he’s going way under-owned this week. I’ll probably fire up Wilson + Metcalf in my primary lineup. We’re looking for big wins, $100k and $500k, it’s okay, and necessary, to go against the grain. Even in lineups where I stack a different QB + WR, I’ll be looking to add Metcalf. The public is rightly turning to McLaurin in this same game. I may add Logan Thomas instead as the Seahawks, on paper, are good against the TE so he’ll be less owned.
Mahomes and Jackson both getting a lot of attention this week. Both are fine options, but I’m likely to stay away. Sandwiched between them in pricing is Wilson, which is why his ownership should be very low this week.
Murray and Hurts in the same matchup. Murray is getting all the attention. My gut says Hurts has a bad game this week, but my money says he’s being overlooked and is too cheap still. Just too much rushing upside to ignore – if I end up on some more expensive WR and TE pieces, Hurts might make his way into my main lineups.
Goff we talked about.
Tannehill always in play and usually under-owned because of the focus on Henry.
I’m staying away from Brees in his first game back. They’ll shift back to Kamara some (he’ll be popular) but I’m thinking this is a Saints letdown game (even though they just had a letdown game).
Rivers is intriguing to me, especially with a TY Hilton stack. Hilton getting some ownership love this week and has been on fire and more people are focused on Taylor. A Rivers + Hilton stack could win someone $500k this week, might as well be you. It’s not a comfortable play though as you really need a monster game from them.
Derrick Henry. No reason not to play him. Yes, his price is high, but we know he always has 200-yard, two-TD upside. And he may be lower-owned than both Akers and Kamara. Yes please.
Kamara makes sense on paper and has a good matchup, but I’m still going to wait to see it with Brees back.
I want to like Carson this week. He’s worth a shot with a Carson + Seattle DEF stack as I don’t expect Haskins to do anything. In fact, Haskins not able to put points makes me a little less excited a Wilson + Metcalf stack. If I move down to Hurts (to fit Henry in) I can still get Metcalf in there.
Taylor is going to be popular but is a good play again.
Mostert is interesting in a great matchup if you think he’s truly healthy and gets all the work. At WR, Aiyuk is going to be mega-popular, pointing to a nice leverage spot moving to Mostert instead.
We already talked Akers. He’s a fade for me at his high ownership.
Edwards-Helaire isn’t really playable, but wouldn’t it be just like the NFL if everyone is on Mahomes and CEH gets a couple touchdowns in a bad on-paper matchup?
Fournette at $5,500 is too cheap. Jones is out. Fournette will be popular, but with Akers and Kamara getting so much attention, he won’t be as popular as he probably should be. He makes another nice cheap piece to fit some of the studs.
Hill is a pass for me; if I’m going to this game I’m probably going to Kelce (like everyone else).
Hopkins is a good piece to bring back in a Hurts lineup. Or Murray if you go that way.
I like AJ Brown but he’s priced back up to where he should be. Hard to see both Henry and Brown hitting their value.
Metcalf is solid in an overlooked spot.
Justin Jefferson solid as usual, even against Chicago.
Woods stands out here as a nice stacking option with Goff, with most people moving to Kupp.
Evans is a nice pivot away from Fournette. Brady + Evans is overlooked on a weekly basis and provides great ownership leverage. I don’t like Ridley on the other side, so Gage could be a nice cheap way to get exposure to the other side.
I’m probably off all of the Washington passing game with Haskins starting, so McLaurin and Thomas probably won’t make it into my lineup.
As good as Aiyuk has been, he hasn’t hit 3x value at this price. He’s very popular this week and could explode, but I’m much more likely to pivot to Mostert.
Hilton is cheap-ish and not getting a lot of ownership attention, but he needs another ceiling game to hit his 3x value. The matchup is equally good for Taylor, so the points may be spread too evenly to play either, taking some
Marquise Brown is interesting. People are all over Jackson because of his rushing, but the matchup for Brown is great too. And he’s likely to go overlooked since he has the COVID IR tag on FanDuel.
Keke Coutee is getting a lot of work and is in a great spot against Indy’s zone defense. He’s only $5,500 and makes a great piece in either a Taylor or Hilton mini-stack. Especially if Cooks is out.
Mentioned Gage already, nice cheap exposure to the Falcons with Julio Jones out.
Kelce is expensive, but worth it as always. He’s popular this week, but can always hit his value.
Have to look at Jared Cook with Michael Thomas out, but I’m likely staying away from the entire Saints team.
On the cheaper side, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. Everett is a nice addition to a Goff stack.
Rams are playing the Jets. Enough said.
Ravens feel like a solid bounce-back candidate after the Browns put up so many points last week.
Seahawks are solid against Haskins.
Dallas coming off a nice win against a broken Bengals team could be in a big letdown spot against SF this week. 49ers DEF makes sense as a stacking partner with Mostert.
Bucs feel underrated against a Falcons team without Julio.
If I’m fading all Saints, it makes sense to give the Chiefs defense a look. In a really deep lineup, I’ll probably throw in a CEH + Chiefs stack.
Titans are in play with a Henry stack, although looks like Stafford will play. Take that for what it’s worth.
The Cowboys are cheap and paid off last week, but this feels like a letdown.
A lot of good DEF options this week. I’m leaning toward Seattle for my primary, but the Rams are hard to pass up, even as the most popular pick this week. The 49ers are attractive at such low ownership, especially if doubling down with a Mostert stack.
The Final Build
Started with a Goff + Woods stack and a Wilson + Metcalf stack. Let’s revisit.
I’m still looking at a Goff build and depending on whether I can fit Kelce in may go with a Goff + Woods + Everett stack. I’m willing to add Rams defense to this stack since I’m not interested in coming back with any Jets.
I’ve moved to a Brady + Evans stack as my secondary I believe. I’ll still get Metcalf into this lineup, but I just don’t know if there is enough upside for Wilson with Haskins not putting up points on the other side.
In both, I’ll try to pay up for Henry as a way to get leverage on the cheap RB options this week. In any that I don’t go to Henry, I may try to add AJ Brown.