Week 14 FD Building Blocks
We were all over Derek Carr and Darren Waller last week. Hope you were too. We were even talking about either Rodgers + Adams or Jones + Packers DEF, any way you went put you in line for a great week. In fact the winning lineup ($500k) had Jones + Adams + Waller. It also had New England DEF in another week that saw a cheap defense put up over 28 points.
On to this week.
Rodgers a good option as always, but his ownership levels are starting to reflect it now. As we’ve said before, there really is no reason to fade a QB because of expected ownership percentages – they’re so spread out you don’t get a ton of leverage. But, if you like another QB equally well and they come at lower ownership, go for it. In this case, others we like and would rather go to Jones on the Green Bay side.
Wilson will be popular and worth it. It’s the jets. There is always blowout risk. And risk that they keep going back to the running game. But, I think they come out to make a statement this week after a disappointing game last week.
Kyler an okay option, but not sure only getting $900 savings from Wilson is worth it.
I like Tannehill, but like Rodgers above, I’ll probably be on Henry instead (like everyone else will be). It might be worth a second or third lineup that is a Tannehill + Brown stack to pivot away from Henry, but Henry will be in my primary lineup.
Just under Tannehill is Brady, my top option this week. You’re rolling the dice on stacking partners but he’s going way overlooked this week against a poor Vikings pass defense.
I like Taysom Hill, but not for only $100 less than Brady. And I’d rather take a flier on Lat Murray and Saints DEF again this week. The same duo that rounded out our Mahomes + Hill lineup that had a shot at taking down the Sunday Million a couple weeks ago.
And, all the way down at $6,800, I have to mention Dalton. The revenge-game narrative has become so common it’s a joke, but, sometimes they’re real. Now, that isn’t to say there is any actual evidence that players in revenge games perform better, but, sometimes it’s actual revenge. This is one of them. Expect Dalton to be fired up in this game, who knows how that will actually translate to his play on the field. But, even without the revenge, it’s a nice matchup and worth taking a look at it.
I’m locking in Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones this week. Top-two projected game totals, large favorites. I’ll take it.
If you want to pivot, Carson and Elliott are in good spots, although Elliott is banged up. If you think the Cowboys can somehow control the game, Tony Pollard could end up being the Lat Murray from a couple weeks ago.
James Robinson continues to get it done and is a good addition to a Tannehill stack if you go that route.
Gio Bernard has been disappointing but at only $5,700 against Dallas, fire him up if you need him. Talk of Mixon potentially coming back, but I don’t believe it.
Melvin Gordon against Carolina is okay and pretty cheap for the matchup.
Lat Murry back on the list this week in a game the Saints DEF should control. He’s got two-TD upside and is cheap. He might be the piece you need to fill out your lineup. Get some extra leverage by stacking with the Saint DEF.
Davante Adams will be popular, but surely he won’t score two TDs again. Right? Always scary to fade him, but I’ll take the leverage on pivoting to Jones.
Metcalf and Lockett both great options this week.
I really want to like Keenan Allen in a bounce-back spot for the Chargers. Atlanta defense is improving though and the Chargers play-calling is not. Worth a shot getting Allen at lower-than-normal ownership, but hard to fit him in with some of the other high-priced WRs we like.
AJ Brown is solid if you’re going away from Henry.
Michael Thomas saw a lot of work last week again. And his price only went up $100. Once again, great chance to get him at lower-than-normal ownership and lower-than-normal price.
Chris Godwin / Mike Evans. I’m likely going to Evans here but both are fine options that are going overlooked this week. Antonio Brown cheaper, so may be more popular, but a great addition in a 3 + 1 with Brady.
Cooper if you’re building one of those Dalton stacks, but Lamb and Gallup are both fine options at lower cost.
Chark was a six-feet-four-sized disappointment last week, but that’s what I like. I’m targeting Henry so I’ll take Chark in a mini-stack when everyone else is off him.
I’m probably locking in Jones, but I need to save salary and go to a cheaper RB I’m fine adding Lazard at WR instead. He showed his upside, and rapport with Rodgers early in the year and he’ll have a big game soon, even better if it comes when the entire grit-eating world is focused on Adams.
Kirk has been bad, but he’s still getting all the snaps. He’s shown tournament-winning upside before and can easily pay off his salary with a decent game.
Way down the list… Cam Sims. Getting a WR2 (even if Logan Thomas is actually probably the second target) at $4,600 is the type of cheap flier worth taking a shot on.
I don’t love any of the usual suspects at the top.
Gronk okay if you want to go there in your Brady stack.
Hunter Henry has a good matchup. Great addition to a Herbert stack or just a cheapish TE if you need.
I like Jonnu Smith in your Tannehill stack to get some differentiation from the more expensive Brown.
Jared Cook is solid, but in a low volume passing environment.
Dalton Schultz could find himself on the receiving end of a TD on the Dalton revenge tour.
Irv Smith Jr has an okay matchup and Rudolph is likely out. I like coming back with Smith in my Brady stack better than trying to jam in Cook, Thielen, or Jefferson who all could bust in a tough matchup.
Akins really seems to be going overlooked. The Texans receivers are cheap so they’re getting a lot of attention, but I like the overlooked Akins in a better matchup for TEs.
You’re going to need one of these cheap options to fit in the stars-and-scrubs lineups we like this week.
Seahawks are fine. Can get some leverage by stacking them with Seattle offense. Or if you’re going away from a Wilson lineup, can stack with Carson.
Saints are probably my top pick in Hurts’ first game as a starter. Double down with the Lat Murray stack.
The Chiefs stand out as a usually good defense that is being overlooked this week.
Bucs are solid and if you’re not going to Irv Smith can stack them with a Brady stack.
Titans are going to be popular, so if you go here, definitely stack with Henry. I’ll probably stay away as Glennon hasn’t been as bad as expected.
And who can we target looking for that super-cheap, under-owned play that can win you a tournament if they boom like New England and Atlanta the last two weeks…
Panthers and Texans. Any fear starting a defense against Trubisky? Didn’t think so. I really like the Saints, but the Panthers may sneak their way into a lot of my lineups.
And if you’re really feeling frisky, the Eagles.
Brady + Evans, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry… gives us pieces of the top-three highest projected game totals. And, better yet, only Henry is getting a lot of ownership attention. With the focus on Davante Adams, Jones is likely to go lower owned than he should. Looking for our 3 + 1 can add Antonio Brown, since it’s just too expensive to get Godwin, and can come back with Irv Smith Jr. as a cheap TE option. This lineup reminds me of our Mahomes + Hill lineup from a couple weeks ago – filled with under-owned studs, with a couple super cheap options to round it out. Hopefully our cheap option doesn’t go to IR in the first quarter like in that lineup.
I’m equally excited about a Wilson + Metcalf + Lockett lineup. Wilson is popular, but his receivers seem to be going overlooked. While the Brady stack is full of ownership leverage, this is nice because you know Wilson is going to these two, while Brady has four legitimate targets that could go off.
Those are my top two for sure, then looking at these in order of preference:
Tannehill + Brown + Davis + Robinson (could go Chark here instead of Robinson and can go Smith instead of a WR)
Herbert + Allen + Henry (could go Williams instead of Henry) + Ridley
Dalton + Schultz/Gallup/Lamb/Cooper (take your pick) + Bernard