Week 13 FD Building Blocks
Cousins + Thielen + Jefferson is more popular than expected, leaving Cook under-owned. I’m trying to get Cook in to my lineups and trying to bring it back with Chark.
I’m also trying to fit Lockett in, rather than Carson. He’s a little under-the-radar and it’s not that Metcalf and Lockett actually switch each week, it’s that the Seahawks will attack your weakness nonstop. This weak Lockett should be the benefactor of that weakness.
One of the reasons for the switch to Lockett is there is more RB value with Gaskin being activated. He’s too cheap for his projected role; he’ll be popular but for good reason.
I hope you made all the money in Week 12. I was very close to winning all the money with my Mahomes + Hill lineup, but I didn’t switch it to my primary lineup, so while it did finish 144th out of 536,250 and turn $4.44 into $150, I missed out on some of the high-stakes cashes. Hopefully you listened to what I said better than I did though.
Here’s what I told you earlier in the week: “Tyreek Hill at the top has the ceiling, even in a tough matchup, and won’t draw a lot of ownership attention. A Mahomes + Hill stack could be sneaky this week and easy to fit with Brian Hill’s salary savings at RB.”
Even after saying that I was still on Fitzpatrick and Goff in my main two stacks, but then Sunday morning I switched course some, but didn’t actually make the switch in my lineups.
Here’s what I said: “There’s enough value this week that you can build any lineup you want, meaning we can easily build our Mahomes + Hill lineup or any of the expensive chalk lineups.”
Most of the value attention was focused on RB, but there was also enough value at WR and TE to build this lineup and still differentiate at RB. I couldn’t afford Mahomes + Hill + Watkins so I stuck with just Mahomes + Hill and came back with Gronkowski. I told you Chubb would be my most heavily-owned RB. I also told you I was likely to stay away from Henry, so what happened? In the end, I was happy enough taking a shot on Murray instead of Kamara so I paid up for the differentiation and upside of Henry. I also didn’t want to play Zaccheaus and Hill in the same lineup. The value that this enabled this lineup build was Zaccheaus with Julio out and Isabella with Fitzgerald out. I think both were still great tournament picks, with above-average opportunity for their low prices. Isabella didn’t do anything spectacular though, and Zaccheaus got hurt early in the game – a game that the Falcons put up 43 points in and Bandon Powell caught a TD pass. If you tell me the Falcons score 43 points, Julio is out, and a non-Ridley receiver gets a TD, I’m playing Zaccheaus at $4,600 every time.
Those things above covered the small differences between my lineup and the winning lineup; the major difference was Atlanta’s defense scoring 28 versus New Orleans’defense scoring 14. We’ve been on Atlanta a few times as a super cheap defense, but certainly weren’t targeting them last week.
On to Week 13.
Wilson may be the most popular QB this week going against the Giants, but Carson is back and no matter how much success they had with Wilson passing a ton, they can’t help but go back to the run more. I’m likely to pivot to Carson here and get some leverage on the field.
I’m not interested in Kyler this week. If anything, I’d be going back to Goff on the other side in a bounce-back spot. Although there is a better bounce-back spot we’ll get to in a bit.
Rodgers is interesting. As of now, he’s going under-owned, again. I suspect he’ll pick up more ownership in high-stakes leagues as we get closer to the game. I’m very likely to have two primary lineups this week… one with Rodgers + Adams and one with Jones + Packers DEF. Just like with Wilson and Carson above, Jones seems to be going overlooked and could give us a lot of leverage on the field.
Watson and Herbert may be popular. I’m not interested in Watson against Indy and I’ll let others go back to Herbert this week.
Tannehill would give you some leverage on what should be heavy Henry ownership, but both teams want to run the ball and slow the game down so I’m likely to stay away here.
I’m still not paying for Taysom Hill. He’s got it done – thanks to two rushing TDs – in both of his games so far, but I’m likely looking elsewhere. I do like Michael Thomas as he’s getting such a high percentage of Hill’s passes, but I’m probably not playing the stack.
Fitzpatrick was fine last week in my primary lineup (but that didn’t have Hill or Henry). He’s fine again this week, although there is blowout risk. Miami DEF will be popular so if you think the Bengals can do anything at all a Fitzpatrick-led game stack would give you some leverage.
Cousins is in play this week in a nice stack with Thielen and Jefferson. The concern here is that it’s also a good matchup for Dalvin Cook. Cook is a little banged up though, so I’d rather take the passing side bringing it back with James Robinson who is getting volume no matter what the game script is. This probably won’t be my primary, but may make it into my top three lineups.
Just below Cousins and Goff, who I mentioned already, is Carr. He’s my top option this week. The Jets are terrible, but they’re more terrible against the pass than against the run and the Raiders are starting Booker at RB. Booker is getting a lot of attention this week and could approach 40% ownership. Anytime I see a RB at 40% ownership my first thought is to fade him. Booker is cheap and definitely could hit his value, but after the terrible performance last week, I think we’re in line for a passing-game bounce back this week. And he comes with a clear stacking partner with Waller and perhaps Agholor. This is a perfect mix of regression and leverage, exactly what we want in tournaments.
If you’re really looking for savings at QB I’m okay with Trubisky, Glennon, McCoy, and Darnold but you never need to go this cheap at QB. I’d rather take the individual pieces that may benefit, like Allen Robinson and Golden Tate in a cheap mini-stack with Carson.
I’m probably staying away from Cook this week.
Henry is intriguing because he, once again, is going overlooked after a monster game. I think the Browns will do everything they can to “try” to stop him but so does everyone else. I’m likely going elsewhere this week, but I’m okay with Henry at lower ownership than what he probably should be.
Chubb is similar but still has Hunt around. After getting him right last week, and seeing his price go up even more, I’m likely staying away this week.
The next three backs are sandwiched together and are probably the three that will make it into the the most of my lineups. Jones, Carson, Robinson. As others focus on Ekeler and Booker, I’ll pay up for these three, with only Robinson drawing significant ownership attention. This provide a lot of leverage and have good matchups to boot. There is concern that Williams is eating into Jones’ workload, so if I’m picking the odd-man out, it might be him.
Once of these days Kamara is going to have a good game. Sadly, I probably won’t see it in my lineup.
How on Earth is Mattison $7,300? No thanks. UPDATE: He’s ruled out now, which may give people more comfort going to Dalvin, meaning our Cousins stack would get even more leverage.
Jonathan Taylor at $6,400 is pretty attractive. He hasn’t exactly been tearing it up, but did seem to be trending up and should come with very little ownership attention this week – small enough ownership that I’ll have to think seriously about getting him into my primary lineup.
Montgomery is also a fine option, priced just below Taylor. He’ll be much more popular though, making my preference pivoting to Allen Robinson and Taylor.
The only RB I’m potentially interested in is Cam Akers. He’s trending up, finally, but his price still isn’t reflecting his potential. I don’t know if I’ll get to him or not, but if I’m stuck for salary, I’d be fine going here.
Adrian Peterson may pick up attention with Swift out. And Boston Scott may pick up attention with a projected negative game script. I’d rather go down to Gore sitting just below those two, although that may only be if I’m trying for a cheap addition to a Carr game stack.
Davante Adams is always in play. I expect his popularity to rise, so I’d rather play him as part of a Rodgers + Adams + Lazard stack.
I don’t love a lot of the usual suspects at the top of the list. I really only get interested again once I get down to Thielen and Jefferson, priced right next to each other.
Michael Thomas at only $7,200 seems like a mistake. Hill still passed a lot a couple weeks ago and when he’s passing he’s looking for Thomas. Too much volume and upside to ignore at this price.
I like Kupp, but it appears he’s getting a lot of attention due to his lower price, so I may lean Woods if going this route or go with a Goff + Woods + Kupp stack to get some leverage.
Robinson is in play, but is getting a fair amount of attention with Trubisky expected to lock onto him. Montgomery is still keeping Robinson’s ownership low enough that I’m interested though.
I’m not interested in Cooks. Yes, he’s all they have (and Coutee at a super cheap price) but against Indy I’m probably staying away from this game entirely. If I’m looking for a mini-stack to go with Taylor I may go to Coutee.
Crowder had a lot of rapport with Darnold to start the year. This could be a nice bounce-back spot in a game stack. Mims is pretty cheap though and getting more and more work in a higher-upside role.
Corey Davis gives you some leverage off of Henry and Brown if you need a cheap piece.
Landry had the game we thought he could have last week. He’s still cheap but in a slower game this week I’ll probably look elsewhere.
Lazard doesn’t seem to be getting any attention but could easily pay off his value. I may even consider moving off of Jones and Adams both and getting monster leverage through Lazard.
Golden Tate is cheap and is just the type of player McCoy should target. He’s an okay stand-alone option but a really nice mini-stack option with Carson.
People are focused on Firkser and Akins, so Waller is getting less ownership than he deserves. I’ll definitely be targeting Waller in my primary lineup.
Gesicki in play again this week and is pretty cheap still.
Engram in play for the same reasons Tate is a good option. A McCoy + Tate + Engram stack would be a nice hail-mary stack if you had a lot of other expensive plays you wanted to target.
Jared Cook, on paper, seems okay. And Kyle Rudolph if you need to, but with Thielen back I won’t be going there, with the exception of, maybe, a lone lineup with a Cousins + Jefferson + Rudolph stack to get away from some of the Thielen ownership.
Dolphins, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Packers are all in play, but popular. None, other than Miami, really stand out as being great so the ownership may spread across them all.
I already talked about a Packers DEF stack, could go to a Seahawks DEF stack also. But the place I’m most likely to go, after having gone through everything above, is a Taylor + Colts DEF stack. The Colts are going overlooked against a Houston team that is missing its top weapon. Yes, Watson is still good, but I’ll take the Colts upside at minimal ownership. They’re being overlooked after they were missing some key pieces last week.
The Raiders defense is also getting overlooked. If you’re going to Booker (I’m not) it would make a lot of sense to stack him with the Raiders DEF.
I still like a Carr + Waller (and probably + Agholor) stack as my primary. I’m not sure whether I’ll come back with Mims or even take a nervous flier on Gore, will see what pricing looks like. I’m likely to move off of Aaron Jones and down to Taylor with the Colts DEF. I may add Lazard to it as a way to get some exposure to the Packers. It feels like a lineup that will have a lot of salary left over, so may go to Michael Thomas or find another high-priced option to add. Always important to remember though, don’t pass up the plays you like just to get someone that is priced higher. That doesn’t always mean they’re better and leaving money on the table is a great way to differentiate your lineup.
I’m probably also moving to Cousins + Thielen + Jefferson as my secondary lineup, adding James Robinson.