Week 12 FD Building Blocks
SUNDAY UPDATE: A lot going on. Tua is out. Fitzpatrick is in. I’m good with replacing Tua with him if you can move down at another position. Going down to Tyler Eifert or Kyle Rudolph at TE might do it.
Jonathan Taylor is out, putting Hines back into the high-ownership chalk play category. He still has Wilkins involved some, but it should be primarily Hines. He’s cheap enough that he’s worth adding, but it’s not automatic. To put his pricing into perspective, he’s cheaper than the returning Austin Ekeler who is priced mainly on reputation at this point. Also notable, he’s more expensive than Moss who is getting more and more work and is in a great game situation this week. Moss is a great pivot off Hines and gives you a lot of leverage on all the Josh Allen and Diggs (and Beasley) ownership.
Julio Jones is probably out, so can feel better about Ryan + Ridley + Hurst stacks. This stack is a great place to move off of Brian Hill and on to Hines.
Denver is starting a practice squad WR at QB this week. This should elevate the Saints DEF but also makes me feel even better going to Kamara at tiny ownership. Could even roll the dice with Lat Murry if you wanted. Of course, Hill could continue to steal rushing TDs, but I’ll take the Kamara upside at sub-5% ownership.
There’s enough value this week that you can build any lineup you want, meaning we can easily build our Mahomes + Hill lineup or any of the expensive chalk lineups.
A 3 + 0 stack won the week. It was a Herbert + Allen + Williams stack without adding a Jets player. That was my secondary build last week; hopefully you were there too.
Kyler Murray and Pat Mahomes at the top are fine options that should be lower-owned than normal, because sitting right below them is Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, who may be the most popular options this week.
Right below that tier is Brady, Newton, and Matt Ryan. All three are good under-the-radar options, but you really need ceiling games from them. Mahomes is only $1,100 more than Brady – do you think Mahomes can outscore Brady by at least 3.3 fantasy points? I do. That’s what you have to think about when picking players. The QB pricing is usually close enough that you don’t get a lot of leverage by moving down to an only slightly cheaper QB. If they truly have equal potential, go for the cheaper one, but don’t pass up the ceiling of a player like Mahomes for only an $1,100 salary savings. Ryan is the cheapest of the three in that tier and has the best chance of getting into a shootout, and has the weapons (assuming Julio plays) to put up points in a ceiling game.
Fitzmagic too expensive and it appears Tua will start again this week.
Taysom Hill at QB, no thanks. If you’re going that route, because you want his rushing upside, just pay up a bit more for Cam.
In the next tier, Daniel Jones okay against a sad Bengals team. Kirk Cousins a good pivot off of Dalvin Cook, but he has no Thielen and Cook really does have a strong matchup. If going here, I’d go with a nontraditional QB-RB-WR stack with Jefferson added to Cousins and Cook. Carr has my interest going against Atlanta. Unlike Brady above, $7,100 for Carr is starting to get into the territory of significant enough salary savings. He’s a strong option this week.
The last two that I’m interested in are Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. Goff against San Fran seems underpriced. Mayfield is priced right because he’s been playing bad and Chubb and Hunt getting all the work, but up against Jacksonville he could finally see a ceiling game.
Dalvin Cook is up to 11k now and could always get the 27 points he needs to hit 2.5x value. The matchup is great and without Thielen they may ride him even more this week. Maybe that throws the offense out of whack though and allows Carolina to focus on the run more. Still seems to me that everything is pointing to another strong Cook week.
We talked about Kamara’s bust potential last week and we saw Hill run and score leaving Kamara with only 10.5 points. Could be more of the same this week. Could be a chance to get Kamara at what could be his lowest ownership of the season.
Chubb and Hunt continue to frustrate us. At $8,400 he needs to get into the endzone this week. Against Jacksonville, he’s got great potential for a two-TD performance and could be lower-owned than he should be because of Hunt’s statline, but that’s skewed by a late score. This is a great place for an RB + DEF stack. Browns DEF should be the highest owned and this mini-stack will give you some differentiation. He’ll probably be my most used RB this week.
Henry didn’t hit his value, but was the second-best RB on the slate last week. Hopefully you got him in your lineup as a pivot away from Kamara. Bad matchup on paper last week. Bad matchup on paper this week. Could always explode, but I’ll probably stay away this week.
Jacobs will be popular, but he’s banged up and has only hit value twice this year. Against Atlanta would be a good spot for it, but I’m more inclined to go to a Carr + Waller lineup or, if you want Jacobs, as part of a Carr + Waller stack or as part of a Matt Ryan game stack.
Mike Davis continues to get a lot of public attention. I really don’t understand it. I’ll be staying away again as even in his better game last week, he only hit 14 points for 2x value. I’d much rather go to Moore or Anderson in a mini-stack with Dalvin Cook.
Not a lot more I like, so let’s jump down to Brian Hill. He should get a lot of ownership this week with Gurley out and only a $5,100 price tag. Davis at over 7k coming off a 14-pt week has people excited. Hill has the same potential for a 14-pt game at only 5.1k. Yes please.
Tyreek Hill at the top has the ceiling, even in a tough matchup, and won’t draw a lot of ownership attention. A Mahomes + Hill stack could be sneak this week and easy to fit with Brian Hill’s salary savings at RB.
Nothing should scare us off of Keenan Allen this week, but he’ll be popular and after a monster week I’m likely to look elsewhere.
Ridley is a solid option this week in a potential shootout and Jones banged up or even out. Although that may actually hurt Ridley’s performance. Julio is priced right below him but is dealing with his hamstring injury still. And we’re already targeting Brian Hill from the Falcons, so may not get to Ridley or Jones unless part of a full ATL/LV game stack.
Jefferson will be popular given Thielen’s status, but I’ll stick to Cook in this game instead.
Moore/Anderson/Samuel are all good options this week coming off a somewhat surprising dominant Carolina performance last week. They should be playing from behind this week and all are capable of paying off.
Woods and Kupp are priced together and appear to be popular this week. That popularity, surprisingly, isn’t being carried over to Goff. The pricing on Woods and Kupp is attractive; add in Goff and it’s eve more attractive, especially with the ownership leverage Goff would give you. This may make it to my primary lineup.
Davante Parker is attractive this week, no matter who starts at QB. Only $6,500 he may be the mid-priced option you need to fill out your lineup. And he’s playing the Jets. Bradford is starting on the other side so I like Crowder in a mini-stack.
On the cheaper side, some options to fill out your lineup… Slayton, Landry, Pittman, Watkins, and Cole Beasley who is probably a must-start this week with John Brown out.
Kelce is always in play.
Waller too. I prefer Waller this week as I like several different LV/ATL stacks.
Gronkowski is going overlooked this week and makes a great addition any KC/TB mini-stacks.
Henry is a good option to pivot away from Keenan Allen; makes a nice mini-stack with Beasley.
Engram is a solid option, but I prefer him as part of a Jones + Slayton + Engram stack.
Not a lot I like at TE; good week to pay up for one of the above options.
Dolphins are solid. Browns are solid. I prefer the Browns because you can stack them with Chubb.
The Giants are a good upside option against and unknown Bengals situation.
The Rams are a strong pick, especially if you’re going away from the Goff stack and, if you’re brave, if you want to try to pick a Rams RB to stack with.
As I’m building lineups, I’m finding my way to Tua more and more. Even though he gets the Jets this week, people are likely to be off him after getting benched last week. He has good stacking options with Parker and Gesicki and a good option on the other side with Crowder. It’s a cheaper core that allows me to pay up for Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb.
I like the Goff + Woods + Kupp stack still as my secondary lineup if you want to move off of Dalvin and down to a cheaper option like Kamara. There’s blowout risk here, but if it’s a blowout it’s likely because of the Rams passing attack doing well.
Next stacks on my list in preferred order… Carr, Ryan, Mahomes.