Week 11 FD Building Blocks
Week 11
Last week we saw a 3-man stack take down 1st place, with Allen + Diggs + Beasley. That lineup didn’t come back with anyone from Arizona, giving it a pretty unique build.
We’re still targeting 3 + 1 stacks, but in weeks where so many games are high-scoring, it’s just as likely that the traditional 2 + 1 stack does well, but then you’re stuck “guessing” right on the secondary players in your lineup. It’s far easier to guess a couple game scripts correctly and build a few correlations based off those. That’s how we’ll continue to build.
QB
Weird to see Rodgers priced at the top – or, more appropriately – weird that he was priced so low to start the season. Indy has a good defense and Rodgers can disappoint sometimes, so I’ll avoid.
Also weird to see Herbert priced above Lamar Jackson. The numbers and his play make it right, but still strange to see. I’m not sure whether people will jump to Herbert given the lack of other good options or if people will see Lamar as a value and go there. Either is a fine play. Herbert is easy to stack with Allen and Williams. Jackson can be played naked, because you’re really banking on his rushing upside.
Big Ben finally had a big game, at tiny ownership levels. He should be much more highly owned this week playing Jacksonville, but he’s still worth playing. The problem is the same problem we had with Brady last week – he has so many weapons it’s hard to know who to stack him with. I’d lean Johnson and Claypool, but JuJu and Ebron (not really this week) are always in play too. I’m likely to go here with my primary lineup. If you like other WR options you can play Big Ben naked if you want and find some other mini-stacks to fill out your lineup. Kamara + Julio Jones comes to mind.
I have some interest in Matt Ryan, but I generally expect a lower-scoring game that won’t need a ceiling performance from Ryan.
Not a lot else I really like at QB this week. Pay up for one of those and find your differentiation at other positions.
RB
It’s pretty ugly here this week as well. A few big names at the top should get the most attention, but it’s tough (but doable) to fit both in…
Cook and Kamara. Kamara is very pricey, but is a must-start. If Taysom Hill is going to do anything as the starter it’s going be through him rushing, him handing off to Kamara, and him dumping it off to Kamara. I expect them to ride Kamara and try to slow the game down. Cook has monster potential every week, especially against Dallas. Just keep in mind, Dallas has started to look better. I think both of these are clear starts, but you can make a case to fade both as well. In fact, if you fade both of them, you’ll have a really unique lineup and can pay up for other positions. I’m probably playing one or both though.
Henry has continued to disappoint, but it would be just like him to have another monster game against Baltimore when no one is expecting it. If you go with Jackson, this would be a nice way to pivot off of Cook and Kamara.
Chubb is interesting, but the presence of Hunt makes it hard to go here, even after last week’s dream scenario where they both paid off.
Elliott is interesting. He’s priced way too high for his performance, but Minnesota isn’t exactly daunting and he could always surprise with a two-TD performance if Dalton plays okay at QB.
Mike Davis has to be mentioned against Detroit. He was a bust last week, as we were afraid of. His performance hasn’t justified this price, but he could certainly turn it around in this matchup.
If you’re going away from a Big Ben stack could go to Conner coming off a big disappointment. I may have a secondary lineup that does just that and pays up for Steelers DEF. You can pass or run on Jacksonville and even though the Steelers want to pass, they may feed Conner after a disappointing week.
A few decent options above if you’re going away from Cook and Kamara.
On the cheaper side, give Adrian Peterson a look. Throwing him in the flex will allow you to get one or both of Cook and Kamara. Swift is out, the matchup is great, and the price is nothing that should scare us away. There is also talk of Kerryon Johnson getting a lot of work, but I don’t buy it. You don’t bring in Adrian Peterson and draft Swift if you’re really trying to get Johnson some work. I’m hoping they get a lead and pound it with Peterson.
Gurley – if you’re paying up everywhere else and are stuck playing Atlanta DEF. In fact, Gurley + Falcons is a nice way to get some leverage off Kamara. It’s not hard to imagine a lot of turnovers with Hill or Winston at QB.
Ballage is cheap and could see some cheap TDs playing against the Jets. This play is best in a Ballage + Chargers stack.
WR
Keenan Allen might be highest owned WR this week, for good reason.
Julio and/or Ridley is intriguing in a Ryan stack or a Kamara + Jones mini-stack.
If you fade Cook, can go after Thielen or Jefferson to get some leverage.
McLaurin in play every week now in what could turn into a shootout game. I’ll probably bank on the under here though.
Any of the Steelers top three in play. I don’t mind coming back with Chark as the Steelers are more susceptible to big plays.
Mike Williams feels pretty cheap for his upside in the Chargers offense; makes it easy to fit a Herbert + Allen + Williams stack.
Marquise Brown is a good, cheap stacking option with Jackson.
If you think Dalton can get something going, Lamb feels pretty cheap. A Gilbert + Lamb + Cooper/Gallup would be a cheap, off-the-radar, hail-mary stack, especially if you want to jam in Cook and Kamara.
TE
This one is pretty easy. Lock in Taysom Hill and don’t look back. He probably won’t be the top QB this week, but he can have a bad QB performance and still wind up as the top TE. His floor, in theory, is too high to fade here.
DEF
Steelers at the top.
Dolphins okay, but seem too expensive.
Chargers could be popular, for good reason.
Vikings may be popular, but I’ll stay away.
You’re going to need to save money somewhere if you go with some of the popular stacks or popular RBs. On the cheap end, several plays I like:
Bengals. Don’t love, but okay.
Lions. Gross, but in play this week. Nice with the Peterson pick if you need salary savings.
And the two that really stand out, Atlanta and Dallas. Sure, no one expects Dallas to do anything and sure everyone expects Cook to just run all over them, but they still have Kirk Cousins and Dallas is min-priced. You may not have an option. I wouldn’t be excited to play them, but at the same time, if your lineup build forces you into it, I also wouldn’t be afraid to play Cook and the Cowboys DEF in a rare reverse-correlation situation that could work.
Lineup Build
I’m looking at a Big Ben stack as my primary, although it won’t be sneaky this week. I’ll see what top-end RBs I can fit in.
For my secondary lineup, I like a chalky Herbert + Allen + Williams stack. I don’t really like anyone to bring it back with for the Jets, so I wouldn’t be against adding Chargers DEF to this stack.
I like either the Matt Ryan + Julio + Ridley + Kamara + Hill stack. Or, the Gurley + Falcons D stack.
And, I’ll have at least one Dalton + Lamb + Gallup + Cook stack just because of the massive leverage that would provide and the cost savings that would allow me to pay up everywhere else.
No player grid this week as the options above are pretty limited. Check out the DK Building Blocks and Tipsy Picks for more player analysis. And, as always, check out First Sip Sunday at 11am on Facebook as the Draught For Upside team gives their final thoughts on the slate. Good luck!