Week 10 DK Building Blocks
Let’s change things up this week. It can get boring just writing about top plays week in and week out. In some cases they’re so obvious I even feel bad explaining them. Like you know that Mike Davis at 4k is fantastic to play or that Davante Adams no matter the price is someone that you can roster. I’m not really doing what we set out to do at the start of the season. We wanted to give you insight into how to be a better player, how to be profitable, and how to be in the required mindset to do this correctly. To some extent picking the correct players will always be part of the equation. However, as we scan the top lineups in GPP’s, the ones that we all covet and chase, we see a theme that has developed this year. One that took quite a long time to really take hold even though it had been discussed for as long as I can remember at this point. When I first started playing DFS back in 2013 stacking was just becoming the big thing. It was simply putting a QB w/ a pass catcher and that was it. Over the years you’d hear some of the better players talk about the run back in that same game, but you didn’t see it employed, or at least correctly all that much. With all the information that’s out there, the analysis, and an emphasis on game theory the game stacks have been at the forefront of everything. Last year my article was all about game stacks. The chalk, a popular one, and a fringe one. That’s exactly what we’re going to look at today. Three game stacks, how to build them out, and what were going to do to fill out the lineups after we have a game stack. All of these components are just as important as the other.
Bills @ Cardinals(-3) O/U 56
Being the highest total game on a slate is sure to drive ownership in this direction. When it also includes duel threat fantasy darling quarterbacks on both sides and suspect defenses it becomes difficult to find ways that this game doesn’t blow up.
For me here the first decision is whether I want to make this game a primary stack and include a Quarterback or use it as a filler stack and take one part from each team. Let’s say we are looking to make this game the primary target who do you run with?
Kyler Murray-$8,000- 13.7% Ownership Projection- Not only has Kyler exceeded his salary expectation every single week, but his worst weeks still would have got there at this salary. That of course is the biggest component you have to consider with Kyler here. If you pay up for the most expensive QB on a slate it’s going to change the dynamic of the rest of your lineup. There is certainly value that can be found so I think it’s fine. Kyler is doing what Lamar did last year, and Mahomes the year before that. The added dimension of rushing the ball cannot be understated. Thus far he’s attempted 76 runs for 543 yards, that’s only 100 less than both Chase Edmonds and Devin Singletary combined. The cherry on top of that he’s ran for 8 TD’s to go along with 16 passing. If that wasn’t compelling enough the Buffalo defense ranks 11th in fantasy points allowed to QB’s on the season. They’ve allowed 24 points or more in 5 of 9 games. The games they didn’t? New England, The Jets 2x, and the Chiefs. Full steam ahead.
You’ve clicked Murray, now you need to pair him with one or two guys that are going to catch those 2 touchdowns that he’s sure to toss or more
DeAndre Hopkins-$7700 – 13% – Current projections have Hopkins coming in as the 8th highest owned WR on the slate, but the 4th highest raw projected points. It presents a decent leverage spot for a guy that has slate-breaking upside. The issue of course is the price, he’s expensive. You’ve already gone ahead and put a huge chunk of money toward Murray, and now to put almost the same amount to Hopkins makes things tough. The highest-priced QB, with the 2nd highest priced WR, will present challenges as you build out your roster. The other concern is that Hopkins has disappeared at times this year. Used more as a decoy to allow other parts of the offense to flourish while the defense pays attention to him. The volatility seems to be linked to Kirk’s presence. Which makes sense, you aren’t going to expect Larry Fitz at this point in his career to steal targets. Christian Kirk on the other hand is an option.
Christian Kirk $5700- 11%- Kirk is still reasonably priced given his huge production over the past few weeks. Three straight games where he smashes value on the back of 5 touchdowns. The expectation or downside to the Kirk play is that we can’t assume that type of production will continue. In a game that Vegas expects the Cardinals to score 3 touchdowns they’re going to go somewhere. Murray will likely run one in, and that leaves 2, maybe more to go elsewhere. Stacking Kirk w/ Hopkins or without still makes a ton of sense even with the regression that may come.
Chase Edmunds-$6300-8% Adding Chase into the stack makes a ton of sense. He correlates well with all the other parts of the offense. So it’s fairly safe to say if he’s had a good game, so have they. There aren’t a ton of scenarios where Chase smashes but Kyler doesn’t. That’s just not how this offense works. The opposite of that can be true. The other parts of the offense can indeed have a good game and Chase not be involved. I’m just willing to risk that. Give me a running back that played 95% of the snaps and is coming off a week where he burned the community (including myself) with a terrible game. 8% ownership, decent price, and a Buffalo defense that is 22nd in DVOA against the rush and has given up the 7th most points to running backs over the last month. If Kenyan Drake plays I’m far less interested in this. In fact, in that case for me the full stack becomes pretty clear w/ Murray, Kirk, Hopkins.
The rest of the offense doesn’t interest me much. Isabella, Arnold, and Fitz are cheap and could be worked in if you need the last spot filled due to cost issues. It’s just not how I’m building it out.
Josh Allen-$7500-15%- Looks like it’s going to be the second straight week that Allen is projected as the highest owned QB for the slate. This matchup is by no means a hard one, but it’s much less optimal than last week. That game really couldn’t have gone any better for Allen and the people that rostered him. I was a bit more skeptical and it cost me. I’m going to maintain that this week as we’ve seen Allen disappear at times after these huge performances. All in all, I think those concerns aren’t great enough to steer me away from Josh who gets to play a defense that was surprisingly dismantled by a Rookie QB in his second start only a week removed from throwing for less than 100 yards in his first start.
Stefon Diggs-$7500-24% This is the obvious stack target. It is this week and it will be every week. Diggs leads the league in targets, receptions, and yards. All this and he comes at a price discount from Hopkins. That you in turn get to pay for in ownership as Diggs looks like he will be the highest owned WR for the week. Which makes sense, the obvious target and stack companion to Allen who also will be the highest owned.
Cole Beasley-$4700-4% Like Edmonds last week Beasley was a large source of my pain. I felt the matchup he had against the Seahawks slot defense was a smash spot. His 3 targets were almost a season-low and would have been if he hadn’t had only 2 against New England the week before. The price drop that he’s seen makes him attractive but as I looked into some correlations for Beasley, some of his better games come when John Brown isn’t on the field. He still has the upside at his price and matchup, but maybe Ole Smokey is an issue for CB.
John Brown-$5300-9%– Brown is one of those guys that I never seem to get right. Going back to his time in Arizona (Revenge Game Narrative) I’ve always missed on the good weeks and played the ones where he gets hurt. I’m hoping to buck that trend this week as I believe all the zodiac signs are aligned for Brown to return to Arizona and have another great game. Coming off 11 targets and TD, if he gets a fraction of that we’re in business. His price allows you to fit him in here for a run back, primary stack, or even into some of the other game stacks as a Kirk/Brown combo for exposure to this game.
The rest of the Crew- While McKenzie and Davis have shown flashes of being fantasy relevant this year a lot of that comes around Brown being out and his snaps being distributed down the line. They’re really nothing more than fringe plays at this point. The same can be said about the running backs and tight ends. There just isn’t enough involvement from an opportunity standpoint to feel good about playing any of them. Predicting touchdowns is one of the hardest things to do, they come with opportunity and in regards to Singletary, he really isn’t getting those chances anymore. When it comes to Moss he might get the goal line carries but we’re going to need to see him run the ball more than 10 times when he’s coming in at 5200.
Seahawks @ Rams (-2) O/U 54.5
The second-highest total on the day, this is another game that you won’t be sneaking past anyone. The Seahawks have been fantasy gold this year, and so have the teams that played them.
Russ Wilson-$7700- 7.5% Even in a game that looked like he was going to disappoint it just took a bit longer for Russ to prepare us a meal. As he cooked we looked through the soup and salad from the first few quarters and thought “This is it?” Alas, it wasn’t it, Russ threw for almost 400 yards but failed to bring anything on his feet. I think that changes this week and while I don’t expect him to throw for 400 yards, I do think he gets 30-50 on the ground as he tries to evade the Rams pass rush. Historically Russ has had pretty good games against the Rams (20,28,30,11) the outlier there being last year towards the end of the season. This Seattle offense is very different and I’m loving Russ this week. His projected ownership coming in almost 5% lower than the other guys mentioned here makes that all the more attractive.
Tyler Locket-$6500-17% – Either of these guys are fine to stack with Russ. You get the ownership decrease w/ the price increase for Metcalf. For me, If I can afford him that’s the direction I’m looking. Give me almost 50% ownership and the higher MS share for targets any day. Outside of that one massive blow-up spot for Lockett, DK has been the better of the two WR’s for fantasy. This week shouldn’t really be any different. At this point, I look at him as match-up proof so I don’t really mind that Jalen Ramsey could be on him all game. It would be enough to prevent me from going all in and locking him into every lineup, but I’m a believer.
Jared Goff-$6500-12.5%- It never really feels good playing Goff. To me, he’s like a microwavable meal that has a fire looking picture of food on the front, but when you open it and heat it up… well it’s not as advertised. Goff in this situation is merely a play against the Seahawks defense more than it is a play for him. His floor has been strong enough this year that you shouldn’t have much concern that he’ll get there, but almost everyone that’s played Seattle this year has gotten there and then some. The book on Goff for many years has been that when given time to throw the ball he can make the reads and has the arm talent to put the ball where it needs to go. However, if you can pressure him and get in his face his drop-off is meteoric, far more than the average. This Seattle team has the third-lowest sack % on the slate only better than the Lions and Raiders. This all seems like it should fare well for Goff who has one of the, if not the best offensive lines in the league.
Robert Woods-$6600-14.3%– Outside of a sick match up against Tre Flowers, Woods provides the additional upside in his rushing attempts, sometimes even getting them near the goal line. As I’ll say later in the next paragraph, I’m happy to take the cheaper WR at an ownership discount all other things appearing equal.
Cooper Kupp-$6900-19%– The dream slot match up that lead me to Beasley last week brought me to Kupp this week. However, unlike last week this time, we have some public ownership on Kupp, and he’s pricey. The Seahawks are into the second string CB’s almost at every position. DJ Reed draws the coverage on Kupp, and he hasn’t been awful. I’m taking the same stand I did on the other side, give me the lower owned player in Woods, and in this case, he’s cheaper, so I’m all for it.
Josh Reynolds-$3500-7%– This is the spot where I’m going to save some money. Reynolds is super cheap, runs routes in the slot just like Kupp, and is often overlooked when building your roster. Up until this point I felt like most of what I was saying was pretty chalky and it was, but here is your spot. Seeing 22 targets over the last three games it doesn’t take much for Reynolds to pay off that 3500 dollar price point and get into 4 and 5x territory.
Higbee/Everett- The complete timeshare in this position makes this nothing more than a guessing game. Their snap counts are similar week in and week out, sometimes so are their targets. I’m not looking at either of them for my tight end position and neither will be in this game stack for me.
Chargers @ Dolphins (-2.5) O/U 49
In this game I’m only interested in one QB and that’s the rookie sensation.
Justin Herbert-$6600-6% Herbert has exceeded 23.5 fantasy points in all but one of his starts this year. Even that week 3 tilt against Panthers he put together 19.7, which isn’t winning us a gpp this week but might be good enough for a min-cash. Aside from that, he’s smashed. Part of the deal here though is we need the other side of the ball to put up some points. Two weeks ago I would have been a bit more skeptical about the Dolphins Offense. However, after last week’s performance, I feel a little bit better. Plus their defense has been creating turnovers and scoring points, and that’s good for Herbert. Yes, you read that correctly. I don’t care if we lose 2 points for a pick 6 when I know my QB gets to go right back out there, throw more passes because I’m assuming now they’re down on the scoreboard.
Keenan Allen-$7100-18% Well it appears it’s happened. I’ve finally moved the needle enough as I’ve been singing the praises of Allen all year. 18% is a hefty ownership price to pay, but with some of the other parts of this offense being so low, it kinda evens itself out. Double-digit targets, extremely high catch rate, and end zone involvement. 7100 is too damn cheap.
Mike Williams-$5400-2% Talking about too cheap, Mike Williams has games of 7 and 8 targets the last two weeks and you’re telling me this guy is 2% owned at 5400? Yeah I’ll take that w/ my stack of Allen and Herbert.
Hunter Henry-$4100-7% Another guy that’s getting massive target numbers, he’s done a bit less with them than the other guys. He’s not likely to find his way into many of my lineups, but maybe one. I guess that means I feel about Henry, what Danger feels about Gio.
DeVante Parker-$5000-15% This wouldn’t be a question if Fitzpatrick was starting. This is the lowest price we’ve seen on Parker in a calendar year. The last time he was this cheap was November 17th 2019 when he was 4700 playing against the Bills. Since that time he’s exceeded salary expectation 11 of 16 times despite a price tag that at one point climbed as high as 7000. The problem of course is we don’t know what we’re getting with this offense. Vegas has them implied for 24 points, those have to come from somewhere. I guess we’re taking the 7 targets from last week as a better indicator of what this offense will look like. Expect a bit of an uptick as Preston Williams is now on IR, leaving Parker a bit more of the offensive load to carry.
Jakeem Grant-$3000-4% – The other guy that I’ve heard talked about is Grant. The ownership number here seems a bit low. But at 3k stepping into the WR2 role here is another spot where we can find value for our lineups. Even in his limited snaps so far this season as WR3/4 he’s been able to get into the 7-9pt fantasy range. I would expect we could quite possibly double that very easily as he surely will play more than the 10-20 snaps he was playing before Williams went down.
Miami Running Backs- I wish I had some clarity here. The Chargers rush defense has been very giving to opposing running backs this year. Allowing 24 or more points to the position every week since the Week 3 game against Carolina. It’s a damn shame Gaskin isn’t playing because he’d be in such a fantastic spot. As it stands we need to figure out first is Breida playing, currently, he’s questionable. Beyond that how much Howard, Ahmed, Perry, and Laird do we want to play. Who will even get the ball? Will, any of them get it enough that it’s worth it? Hopefully, I’ll have some answers to this on the live stream.
Other Players and One-Offs.