Week 9 DK Building Blocks
There are a ton of great QB spots to look at this week. Here are a few, but don’t feel the need to limit yourself to these. If something correlates with your pass catchers better, by all means go that way. Herbert, Murray, Mahomes are all in fine spots and are very playable.
Josh Allen($7000)- At his price of 7k he is going to have some ownership and justifiably so. The Seahawks are a fantastic team to play against in DFS this year. They have the wonderful combination of a high-powered offense and a terrible defense leading to massive shootouts. They’re #1 in WR and QB fantasy points allowed. The thing here I’m thinking about with Allen is that now we have to factor in a few extra variables that make his success a bit harder. One of those is that we might see carries within the 5-yard line go to Zack Moss, and he might cash in on them. Allen is a good play no matter what, but in a large GPP we’d be looking for one of those 30 point games, he’s not going to get there unless he runs one into the endzone. He’s still worth the look but by no means is he a lock or must play.
Russell Wilson($7600)- On the other side, Russ has been in the dream scenario all season. Having to put up tons of points every game to keep the team competitive. They’ve also gone away from the run game that in years past had dominated this offense. On top of that, they have had their challenges with healthy backs only furthering the reliance on the air attack. Russ is expensive but so far this year he’s paid off this and every price each single week. Don’t over think it, its okay to have tons of Russ. Plus this week you’re getting him at a discount due to playing what’s perceived as a good defense. That may have to due with their Fantasy points allowed metric, but we look a bit further and from a DVOA perspective, they’re ranked 22 against the pass and 23rd overall.
Deshaun Watson($7100)- This won’t be sneaky, but neither will the earlier two QB’s that I’ve talked about. We’ve seen a big enough spread among the QB’s this year that even if they’re all 12% that’s not a number that scares me. This entire offense revolves around Watson more so than most others in the league. Let’s just be honest David Johnson isn’t going to take over any games on the ground. His success and this entire team’s success comes from Watson. Like Russ, he’s been a fantasy dream spot due to his defense not being able to stop anyone and requiring him to push the ball downfield. One of my favorite plays of the week.
Derek Carr($5700)- He’s produced in almost every game this year. This past Sunday was an exception. Given the crazy winds, and just overall terrible weather I think we can give him a pass. This week he goes up against a formidable defense but I expect he returns to 4 or 5xing his salary against a team that’s allowing the 4th most points to opposing QB’s this year.
Chase Daniel($4000)- The Vikings have been a great spot to target for QB’s and passing attacks. If Stafford is out I don’t hate Daniel. Simply because he’s only 4k.
Dalvin Cook($8200)-After last week it would be criminal for me to leave out Cook from top plays. His price is starting to get up there, but we all saw what he can do when given enough run. The Lions have had problems stopping running backs for as long as I can remember. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs only behind the Packers. We saw what happened to the Packers. I don’t expect Cook to put up record-setting numbers again this week, but we don’t need that, half of it will do.
Josh Jacobs($6300)- This one is pretty simple. You get a true bell-cow back at $6300 in an even match-up. It’s something you have to consider because you almost can bank on Jacobs getting most of the HVT rushing touches and 20+ total touches all game.
David Johnson($5600)-I said earlier that I wouldn’t expect David Johnson to take over a game on the ground. However, he could have a dominant performance when you combine his rushing and passing totals. Johnson has been targeted in the end zone multiple times this year, finally in their last game-turning that into a touchdown. He hasn’t shown us the ceiling that we want, but his floor has been there. The discount we get is built into that risk.
James Conner($6900)- If this was a different slate Conner would probably be higher owned than he looks like he will be on Sunday. Playing the Dallas defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone makes you look his way. Conner has had a pair of bad games, but they were against better rush defenses and in games where the other team kept up with the Steelers. This game isn’t that, not even close. Since Dak has gone down Dallas’ offense has been just as inept as their defense, making me think this game will be one of the more lopsided games for the Steelers this week. It doesn’t help Dallas that the Steelers defense is actually good. I can see Conner getting 20-25 touches and scoring two times.
Julio Jones($7200)- Julio has had ups and downs throughout his career. Earlier in the season, it looked like Ridley would eclipse Jones as the #1 target for Matt Ryan in this offense. While that might be true, with Ridley out it elevates everyone in this offense to bigger roles. The one thing we know is that Julio can fill that role. We need not look far to see the 137 yard explosion last week to see what we can expect. This is the role Julio had when we saw him with DFS prices of 9k. So when you see he’s only priced 7200… makes it an easy click.
Terry McLaurin($6500)- It doesn’t feel good rostering anyone on the WFT except the defense. Even someone as talented as McLaurin gives you pause. The second thing that might make you hesitate is that this is the highest price we’ve ever seen McLaurin since he entered the league. But it’s not even close to being enough for a guy that gets double-digit targets let alone the red zone targets. All that said, and even keeping in mind that he has Kyle Allen under center throwing him the ball I still love McLaurin this week. The WFT might be bad, but the Giants are as bad if not worse. Roster with confidence.
Stefon Diggs($7400)- If you’re playing Allen this guy is a must. If you’re playing Russ this guy is a must. If you’re playing someone else, well he’s almost a must. The Seahawks have allowed 11 touchdowns to WR’s, and 8 games of over 100 yards. When Diggs goes for 100 yards he averages 8 catches. That puts him at 21 fpts which would be the floor we could accept. Throw in some extra yards and a touchdown and he becomes a smash play even at high ownership.
Keenan Allen($7000)-Through the year there have emerged a few “on-brand” plays for me. Murray, Drake, and Keenan Allen. Here we are in week 9 and there’s one left standing. Keenan and his massive target share still stands out to me at 7k and will be a building block in most of my lineups. 8 or more targets in every game this year, with the injury exception, I think we can pretty easily project him for another 8 or 9 catch game for 80 or 90 yards with an exceptional ceiling to do more.
Darren Waller($5800)- I thought we were going to get an ownership plunge this week after he burned so many people last week as the chalk. The analysis from last week still applies here, we just don’t have crazy weather to beat down the offense. I suppose the field sees the same thing.
Mark Andrews($4800)- Huge discount in price and ownership. I’m in love with this play for those reasons. The Colts have done a good job against the Tight End’s they’ve faced this year, but Andrews is a different beast. The Raven’s are going to need a win and I’m thinking that will come off of two Andrews touchdowns.
Hayden Hurst($4100)- It took awhile for Hurst to come in and really be embraced in the role Hooper had last year. In each of the last two games, he’s seen 7 targets and been catching those targets at a bit higher of a clip than he was earlier this year. He’s still priced down at 4100, which I suspect will be closer to 5 by years end. We have to remember this year was very different as there was no preseason to develop chemistry for some of these new additions to teams. Hurst’s numbers could have been a victim of that.
Pittsburgh($4900)- One of the best defenses, if not the best in the league playing an offense that struggles to score and will be on its 4th QB. 4900 is a lot, but I doubt they allow many points here. Can they get a defensive score is the question?
Houston($3100)- No matter how bad the defense is, it’s always attractive to go against a QB making their first start.
Washington($3400)- The football team’s defense hasn’t been the problem. They’ve been average against good teams and downright dominant against bad ones. The Giants fit into the latter. This pass rush is going to force Jones into making some decisions that won’t be well thought out. Those are the ones that often go to the wrong team, and that’s exactly what we want.