DK Building Blocks Week 6
What an interesting week we have in front of us. I have a lot of opinions that are different than what I said during my first look. And I suspect that I may have even more different ones once we go live on Sunday. I’m going to give a few picks and thoughts in this article and then hopefully update this tomorrow with anything new that I dig up on Saturday. Trying to go a little deeper here as I feel like there might be a slight edge in some of the picks if we can avoid a chalk smash slate.
Before we get into position by position, I want to talk about the chalk stack of Stafford and Golladay. It’s fine if you want to play this stack and I do believe if you have a strictly cash lineup it’s a fine play. Given my history as a Lions fan and someone that wants to avoid the chalk for leverage, I’ll be avoiding this for the most part. I’ve seen the Lions disappoint too many times and they do so even more on the road. I’ll mention leverage plays quite a bit in regard to this game. Again it’s fine, I just see it recommended everywhere on my Twitter feed and they both project to be extremely highly owned. So if they have an average or below-average game we can leapfrog a huge % of lineups very quickly.
Big Ben($6700)- When it comes to Ben we’re looking at a guy that’s had a pretty safe floor all year. His ability to throw the ball downfield and make the big play hasn’t been there. Not due to a lack of weapons, but more so a deterioration of his arm strength. That doesn’t mean he can’t be effective. We’ve seen this same thing with Tom Brady and Drew Brees in the twilights of their careers. The advantage that Ben has is this offense is loaded with playmakers. JuJu/Claypool/Johnson and even Washington give opposing secondaries fits on who they’re going to cover. The biggest knock would be his lack of 300-yard games so far this year. If he can find a connection to the end zone with some of his guys and throw for over 300 yards you’re getting a monster game at SUPER low ownership. His price does reflect the floor that you get, but the leverage is there.
Gardner Minshew($6400)- Look, all the talk this week is focusing on the other side of the field and Matt Stafford. But Minshew has had a solid start to the season. With 3 games over 300 yards and a completion percentage above 65%. Sure he’s thrown a few picks and sure he’s got a few injuries to his major pass catchers. That said he’s going against a very generous Lions defense that should have a hard time pressuring the QB. If the Lions do get out to a big lead then the Jags are going to have to throw the ball quite a bit and with 4 games of over 40 attempts, I like Gardner’s chance of 4xing his Salary.
Fitzmagic($5900)- This won’t be quite as sneaky of a play as it was last week. Fitz looks like he’s going to be one of the two highest owned QB’s along with Matt Stafford. The difference here is Fitz has had a great start to the season, has an equally juicy match-up, and is about 400 dollars cheaper on DK. He’s also thrown over the 300 mark 3 times this year (Stafford 0) and has some rushing upside built in. A favorite Cash option for me this week.
Before we get into Running Back, the same type of note. I like Mattison and I certainly think there’s more than enough reason to play him. Again he’s someone that will need to have a touchdown and I think he scores more often than not. But in a game where at times it’s difficult to find leverage, this is another spot where we can be a little different, and if he in fact fails we’re ahead of the curve. It’s not just hoping that he fails per se, it’s that he performs at a certain expectation or below. I don’t see many situations where he gives you a GPP upside winning score of 30+ FPS. It’s possible, but I suspect he’s more likely good for 18-24, which is fantastic for cash, but not as great for GPP. But I also don’t think he has the chance of killing you the same way the Lions stack could.
Derrick Henry($7300)- Do I need to write about this? Guy had a floor usage game last week with 19 carries but still was able to get all the high value run targets during the actual game (Last drive doesn’t count.) He’s got a great match-up and I expect 20-30 touches. He’s fine in all formats.
James Robinson($6800)-A a couple of let-down weeks as the team fell behind and he wasn’t able to get much going on the ground. His inclusion in the passing downs has helped his DFS value. The price is still a bit high, but the matchup is money. The Lions can’t stop anyone or anything. If Chark misses the game you can assume that he may get some of the additional touches in designed plays. Strictly a GPP play due to price for me.
Myles Gaskin($5400)- Looks like he’ll be the fifth-highest owned running back on the slate for DK. If it was any other week we might see that number a bit higher given his match-up and their red hot offense. But guys like Mike Davis/David Mont/Mattison/Henry are going to be above him. The thing about Gaskin is the price. He allows you to fit so many other things in your lineup. Including some of the Stud WR’s that have a higher ceiling than most RB’s. It’s simply easier to have slate breaking games through the air. The only way that happens from the RB position is with pass-catching points or 3+ touchdowns. The nice thing is Gaskin has both those upsides as a cheap RB. He’ll be my highest exposed player.
Antonio Gibson($5500)- An interesting low-owned pivot is Gibson. We didn’t see the workload we would want last week from him. The Football Team’s offensive line was getting destroyed by the Rams. That doesn’t happen this week against the Giants. Additionally, we see Kyle Allen back in, which isn’t a huge upgrade, but one nonetheless. Finally, one of the largest detriments to anyone in the FBT’s offensive production was that they couldn’t stay on the field, not extending drives and running more plays. Their 3rd down offense has been the worst in the league. Their defense played an absolute beast of defenses when it comes to third down. This week they get the Giants who are league-worst at stopping people. So I love the play in large GPP’s.
D’Andre Swift($4500)- Swift’s role in the passing game seems to be pretty cemented. I think you can stack him with Stafford and Golladay and be different. Most people will look at TJ. The Jags could come out and take the lead forcing the Lions into a more pass-heavy offense than they already have. Which would play into Swift’s path to success. 16 targets in 4 games, with some Red Zone usage, has him getting around 10-12 fantasy points per game. Make no mistake we need at least 12 but we’d be looking for 16-18. He needs to break a big play or two, but this is the type of play that can help win a GPP along with a solid game stack or as part of one.
Allen Robinson($7000)- Leverage over the David Montgomery Chalk. 39 Targets over the last three games and projected at sub 10% ownership making him around the WR16 in ownership, but projected as the WR3 in raw points. If I could eat this play I would. It’s so damn tasty.
Terry McLaurin($5700)- Remember the blurb about the NYG 3rd down defense? The same thing applies to McLaurin. He does look like he’ll have some ownership as his price allows you to fit in the higher-priced RB’s. I still like him despite the lack of leverage in comparison to Robinson.
Calvin Ridley($7800)-He’s expensive. Raw points projection 6, ownership 12. He’s the undisputed #1 for Matt Ryan and the Falcons. An insane amount of targets, air yards, and everything you could ever want. Plus we know Julio, even if back, doesn’t score touchdowns. Ridley is a boss, 50 targets in 4.5 games. GPP winning upside but it does come at a cost.
Adam Thielen($7300)- The other guy in that same game that also comes at a price. Reginald told me he’s due for TD regression. I mean, not if he’s getting 2-3 Red Zone Targets on top of .5 rushes every game. The Falcons secondary is in shambles, the defense is awful. Vegas loves this game. You can certainly pivot to Jefferson in GPP’s, but Thielen in Cash.
Damiere Byrd($3500)-He’s forever in my picks as long as he keeps being under 4k and seeing 6-8 targets and 90+% of snaps. (Stole this from the contributor’s group chat. Credit to Danger.)
Austin Hooper($3900)- The Steelers have a great pass rush, Baker isn’t the best at making reads. It stands to reason he’ll look for some easier quick throws and that stands to benefit Hooper. In the past two weeks, we’ve seen his targets go from 4 in both weeks 2 and 3. To 7 and 10 in weeks 4 and 5 respectively. Last week he also lead the team with 30% of the Air Yards. Carrying similar projections to Jonnu Smith, Andrews, and Gesicki. He comes at a substantial price and ownership discount.
Mark Andrews($6500)- The top-priced TE on the slate is a massive Red Zone target. Giving him a shot at double touchdown weeks, every week. 11 Targets so far in the red zone this year. If you want to buy into a narrative that Lamar might have a slight injury he’s dealing with that prevents him from rushing the ball as much as he’d like. It’s easy to come to the conclusion that there will be more TD’s to go around and some of those surely will find their way into Andrew’s hands.
Eric Ebron($4100)- Ebron is another weapon for Ben. He’s a weapon that will always be shallow in terms of routes and if you agree with me that Ben’s arm strength is questionable. Ebron will have some pop off games and they’ll usually come at low ownership. It’s so much easier to click on the WR’s from the Steelers. But Ebron is worth consideration.
Baltimore($4500)- Defenses has been a hard position for me this year. We haven’t seen a ton of defensive scoring each week which further emphasizes some of the other methods of scoring. The Ravens appear to have one of the best units in the league and they go against an Eagles team with a patchwork Offensive Line, and a defense that gives up points. This leads to sacks and turnovers, two things we need. The price isn’t something that’s easy to swallow that’s for sure, but the upside is there as we saw last week.
Miami($2900) – I’m not in love with this defense. There just aren’t many at a low price that I am. This one grades out the best sub 3k. I see a bunch of builds with the Bengals, I’m just not there. I do understand the savings if you want to get here as if you don’t like anyone just go with the cheapest or most expensive.