DK Building Blocks Week 4
Let’s get right into it.
Lamar Jackson($8100)- Coming off an abysmal Monday night performance I’m looking for LJ to bounce back. The concern here is the price is steep, the competition is bad, and the game may get out of control. If they take their foot off the gas a bit, Lamar doesn’t make or exceed value. That’s the issue every week, but this week more than usual with Washington being without rookie Chase Young. Since last year there have only been three games in which Jackson failed to return value on his current price tag, so there’s some safety in the number. Although that said two of those three were in the prior two weeks.
Russ Wilson($7800)- I don’t really think much needs to be said here. Russ is on fire, the offense is run through him instead of the run. To tilt things even more into our favor, the Dolphins are going to be without Byron Jones for the second straight week making an already suspect secondary even worse.
Josh Allen($7300)- Like Russ, Allen is the focal point of this offense and everything goes through him. Going up against a Las Vegas Raider team that has been pretty stout defensively against most positions, but last week we saw Rex Burkhead absolutely abuse them around the goal line. In terms of Buffalo, that area is a place where Allen shines. Sure they’re going to give Singletary some shots down there, but as we saw last week they won’t commit to it. If he can’t convert on the first try they’re going to employ some of their other weapons and Allen is the primary one when it comes to that. Perhaps I was wrong in anointing Kyler Murray the breakout QB this year, when in fact it’s Allen that may be that guy.
Jared Goff($6700)- To start the season Goff has looked great. He’s played well both while in the lead and from behind. The Ram’s draw a shaky Giants defensive unit that has had its share of issues stopping teams passing attacks. To top it off the Giants are traveling to the west coast, and have an average sack rate. These are all things that line up well for Goff if you’re looking for a less expensive option to start.
DeShaun Watson($6600)- On the other hand Watson, unlike Goff, has had a really rough start to the year. It’s less about the way he’s played in some regards as to the defenses that he’s faced off against. Finally this week he will get a Minnesota Secondary that’s been used and abused every week thus far. To top things off we have a healthy Will Fuller to stack with DeShaun. I’m looking for him to have his best performance at what might be one of the cheaper prices we’ll see all year.
Fitz Magic($5400)- Man he looked good last Thursday didn’t he? This week they aren’t playing the Jags but Seattle isn’t that much better. The Hawks have had their issues defensively despite all the praise they’ve received on offense. Jamal Adams, an off-season addition is listed as out with a Groin Injury. Quinton Dunbar is also listed as out meaning we will see them roll out Tre Flowers and Shaquill Griffin on the corners. Both are a bit banged up but practiced fully on Friday. Still, at a dirt-cheap price, you don’t need Fitz to do much and there are some studs elsewhere that the savings will allow you to fit in nicely too.
Alvin Kamara($8000)- Michael Thomas is out, the Saints play the Lions and you know what that means? It means you start with 42,000 in salary for your lineup because Alvin Kamara needs to be in your lineup. The insane usage he’s had since MT went down looks to continue for one more week. He’s touched the ball on almost half the saints play in the last two weeks. Yet his price hasn’t been raised nearly enough to reflect what he’s doing and this might be the worst defense he’s faced. I don’t see many situations where he isn’t in the optimal lineups that are needed to take down a GPP.
Zeke($7800)- Another real bell cow that has the workload and usage to justify the price we see on him. Almost 20 carries a game and 7 targets. The case for Zeke is, like Kamara, he’s going to run the ball and catch it out of the backfield. He’s going to see a ton of high-value touches, green zone and red zone work. On top of that there just isn’t any way that Dak continues the pace that he has through three games so far throwing an average of 47 times per game. At some point, that’s going to change. This week is as good as any. The Browns have the second-highest rush rate in the league. And I just don’t see them getting out to a huge lead that Dallas needs to play catch up as they have in every other game this season.
Dalvin Cook($7600)- When Cook’s been healthy he’s been a player you can trust in fantasy. Despite his huge game last week, 4 touchdowns on the year, pass-game involvement, and going against the defense giving up the 4th most points to RB’s on the year, DraftKings has decided to price him at 7600. I’m going to try and find a way to stuff him and AK in the same lineup and maybe even the next guy…
Austin Ekeler($7100)- Tread lightly here. I’ve been wrong every week on Ekeler. I’m looking at last week as more of the norm and Ekeler really being the main guy here in LA. As long as Herbert is running the show that is. It’s a tough matchup and my thought is the Chargers, like most times this year, will be playing from behind. That lines up better for Ekeler than it does Kelley. — Update: I’m already moving way from this play, but leaving my above thoughts for you to see.
Nick Chubb($7000)- Kareem Hunt is questionable and if he misses this week due to injury expect Chubb to pick up where he left off last year before Hunt came back from suspension. While I’d expect D’Ernest Johnson to get some of Hunt’s snaps I would be surprised if he got any of the high-value green and red zone touches. He’d act more like a guy to fill in and give Chubb a breather. The Cowboy’s thus far this year rank 25th in points allowed to RB, but 15th in DVOA. They’ve been behind and thus backs haven’t scored as much because teams have been torching them through the air. That isn’t really the way this Cleveland team is going to beat you. So if Hunt misses the game Sunday Chubb is a fantastic option.
James Robinson($6500)- Robinson really announced himself as a viable play last week against Miami. This week he gets another defense that has had its challenges and will be running it’s 3rd string DT as Geno Atkins still hasn’t made his debut and Mike Daniels is listed out. Robinson is expensive and with salary at a premium, it might be difficult to find a way to fit him in as he is very TD dependent. Chris Thompson is still taking away some route-running snaps but hasn’t really been a factor. As the season progress, we’re going to see more and more of Robinson.
Kenyan Drake($6000)- This one sure doesn’t feel great since we’ve been going to this well week after week. The dud last week should lower ownership though and I like that. I don’t like that De’Andre Hopkins hasn’t practiced all week. If Kirk and Hopkins can’t go that certainly doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals being able to move the ball. In some regards, I think this could help Drake from a touches perspective but an overall offense that struggles will hurt. I’m a bit more hesitant but do want some shares of Drake at least in some GPP’s against this 28th DVOA ranked defense against the run. Furthermore, they’re ceding the second-most points to Running backs so far this season. They’ve already given up 26 TWENTY-SIX receptions to backs. Drake hasn’t been that guy through a small sample yet this year. The results of this game will be telling.
Mike Davis($5700)- The price simply hasn’t been raised accordingly. Davis has been a usage monster filling in for CMC. While I’d expect his production to slip slightly, there’s enough meat there that we can handle it and still hit value. Back-to-back weeks with 8 targets and all the high-value touches has me loving Davis again this week. The Cardinals have given up 3 touchdowns to RB’s so far this season, 2 of which came through the air. To top that off they’re giving up just above 100 yards a game on the ground to go with it. These numbers are fairly consistent to what they were last year. So it’s fair to project they continue once again this week.
Ronald Jones($4700)- With Godwin and more importantly Fournette out we might just see Ronald Jones assume the bulk of the workload for the Bucs. Even if he does have McCoy and Vaughn seeing snaps as well the price tag makes it worth the gamble.
Lockett/Metcalf($7000/6800)- We love Russ right? Well, he has to throw it to someone to get those points right? Yeah, these are the guys that make that happen.
Diggs($6800)- Insane usage, was able to score even with Ramsey on him. Should return to week 1 and 2 form this week.
Allen Robinson($6700)- Nick Foles please make this man a monster. I think having someone with a semblance of an accurate toss can do wonders for Allen this week. He’s still too cheap.
Keenan Allen($6500)- 19 Targets last week, Mike Williams might be out, and a price tag that’s just way too low. I love Allen this week almost as much as I love Kamara. It feels like every year Allen gets off to a slow start, something happens and he just explodes for a few games. It’s fun to get on that train at the start, and not the end. I expect to have a good amount of Allen in my lineups despite the tough matchup.
Mike Evans($6400)- Same thing here as above. Evans has a really tough match up but Godwin is out, Miller is banged up, and Mike Evans crushed it two weeks ago when the situation was similar. He had 10 targets that game and I’d looking for him to get about this same this week.
Edit Alert- This spot was going to contain Tyler Boyd, but he didn’t make it through edit.
Will Fuller($5900)- A healthy Will Fuller gets a Vikings secondary that has been taken to the woodshed by guys like Kalif Raymond. No disrespect to Kalif but Fuller is a much better receiver. His problem has always been being healthy and sharing market share with De’Andre Hopkins. Well, Hopkins isn’t there, he’s healthy and finally will go against a less than stellar defensive unit.
De’Vante Parker($5700)- Last year Parker had a huge stretch of games where he was the second-best PPR producing WR in the league behind Michael Thomas. This year he’s gotten off to a slowish start partially because of an injured hamstring. He hasn’t played since last Thursday and the extra rest should have him healthy coming into a game against and battered and bruised Seahawks secondary. I love Fitz, so I need someone to catch those passes. Parker is the obvious play here and at a discount price of 5700. Even in a week where he disappointed he led the team in Air Yards, Market Share, Targets, Snaps, and Routes Run.
Mark Andrew($6000)- Man, I was off this guy last year and it seemed like every week he’d score two touchdowns. That’s obviously not what happened but this year I’m on the other side. I’ve touted him, sung his praises, and rostered him in any format available. While I was rewarded in week 1, the last two weeks have been tough. He was still looked to enough last week to be viable, just didn’t convert on the catches. He’s not my favorite play, but I don’t have a problem rostering guys on a team I expect to score 3-5 touchdowns.
Darren Waller($5200)- Ruggs and Edwards are out. The Bills give up the 7th most points to Tight Ends in the league through three games. Is there anyway Darren Waller doesn’t see 10+ targets? Sure, but what’s more likely? Buffalo is good against the run, and have a fantastic outside corner in Tre’Davius White that will never come into the slot. Waller won’t have to worry about him and instead will get easier matchups against linebackers and slot corners, both of which he’ll present some significant mismatches against. I love Waller here.
Mike Gesicki($5100)- Much like Jimmy Graham when he was with the Saints, Gesicki doesn’t really play tight end. This is simply what he’s listed as. He’s just a giant wide receiver and that, like Waller, creates mismatches for the defense. Miami should give up a ton of points to the Seahawks so I’d expect them to put up some gaudy passing numbers of their own to try and keep pace. Along with Parker, Gesicki is my favorite stack with Fitz.
TJ Hockenson($4800)- We saw what Waller did in primetime against the Saints. Then we saw what the trio of Green Bay tight ends did against the Saints. I’m looking for TJ Hockenson to show why he was drafted in the top 10 and have a solid game including a score this week against those same Saints. And if you’re trying to jam in both Zeke and Kamara like I said above, Hockenson is the cheaper TE option you need to save salary, not to mention the great mini-stack with Kamara.
Hunter Henry($4600)- I don’t want to spoil it but next week Henry gets the Saints, so expect him in the write-up in back-to-back weeks. We’re talking about this week though and this week Hunter goes against a previously mentioned difficult match-up against the Bucs. This is more about the role in the offense. Averaging 8 targets, 5 catches, and 68 yards for the season. Henry’s 4600 price tag isn’t enough. He’s cheaper than everyone else I’ve mentioned and has similar upside.
Logan Thomas($3500)- The hard part here is Thomas would be a stud and priced up significantly on another team. However, he is on Washington and they have a really tough matchup this week against Baltimore. Haskins will still be his Quarterback and that really dampens the outlook for Thomas. On the bright side, he’s still 3500 with 3 straight games of 7 targets or more. More importantly, he’s had 1 or more targets in the Red Zone each week and is playing over 85% of the snaps. I wouldn’t use him in cash, but he’s a fine salary-saver for GPP’s.
Baltimore($4000)- Going against Haskin’s who is going to make some mistakes.
LA Rams($3900)- At home against Daniel Jones and the lowest implied total of the week. The Rams have given up points, but they’ve brought pressure and will be playing the worst offense they’ve seen to date. I like them at a slight discount to the Ravens.