DK Building Blocks Week 1
This year feels different and that’s because it is different. With all the craziness that’s been going on, we don’t have any preseason snap counts, game film, or really anything besides last year to go off of. There’s a huge lack of value in comparison to other years and obvious plays. This is all exciting but comes with more uncertainty than a typical week 1. Below are some picks, some thoughts, and at times some stats to back up those thoughts.
Lamar Jackson $8100
How can you not love Lamar? He’s going to be a play every week. That said his price is going to force you to pivot on some of your other players to make it work. You’re counting on him to create a huge chunk of points. Last year against Cleveland he put up two fantastic performances, both which would be more than enough for him to provide value this week. (26.48 / 33.42)
Additionally, he was much better at home throwing for 700 more yards and rushing for 200 more. I certainly like him as cash play if you can find other guys to make it work. Yes, we’re not getting him at the same value as last year, but did anyone really expect that?
Kyler Murray $6400
Murray was able to be fantasy relevant in both his matchups against the 49ers last year. In the second game, the Cardinal’s offensive game plan shifted away from Richard Sherman as he threw a lot of passes to the other side of the field. This of course was the biggest glaring weakness that the 49ers had for most of the year. With a season under his belt and some new tools, I’m pairing Kyler with a WR and Drake.
Teddy Bridgewater $5900
The thought for Teddy is that there are several weapons I want to target on this team. Almost all of them get their points from passes that come from Teddy. Even CMC is going to do a fair amount of damage from passes thrown his way. It makes for a perfect 2- or 3-man stack. One of the knocks against Teddy has been that he’s too conservative and he can’t make the deep pass. That may have had some truth in his Minnesota days but, to put context to that, he didn’t have a great offensive line then. The time he had to throw those balls was paltry. Last year he was accurate on 6 of 9 passes of 21 yards or more. That accuracy extrapolated to a larger sample would have been better than anyone else in the league. Kyle Allen, well he was the least accurate of any passer. And now Teddy has downfield weapons like Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. I’m looking for some Teddy exposure.
Matt Stafford $6200 / Mitch Trubisky $5,400
This Lions/Bears matchup was a game stack that I had targeted early. I’ve wavered on that some from when I first put it in the article. I still like both of the quarterbacks as fringe GPP viable. This for me is more focused on the 5-dollar super large tournament because you need some level of uniqueness in a field of over 600k entries. Trubisky being healthy, his ability to run, and his past success against the Lions makes him a long shot I’m interested in considering. On the other side, the offense for the Lions looked fantastic last year when they were all healthy. Stafford was throwing downfield more than anyone in the NFL, and more than at any point in his career. It does give me some level of pause with Golladay likely missing, but nevertheless I think he’s a solid play to consider.
Christian McCaffrey $10,000
There’s not much that needs to be said here. I listed him because he’s obvious in terms of the massive usage role he played on this team last year (93% of snaps). There is always the thought that fading someone that will likely be 30% owned or more, and hoping he fails, is the way to go. There is definitely merit to that and we did see a few games where Cmac simply didn’t put up the production needed to justify his price tag.
Austin Ekeler $7000
Ekeler shined in the role as the sole back to start the season before Gordon returned. He showed that not only could he handle a full workload running the ball but he was able to do that while catching passes at the same time. I expect to see an uptick in the rushing efficiency in LA. We see this a lot with teams that have Quarterbacks that can also run the ball. Tyrod’s teams in Buffalo did just that. In fact, those 2015/16 bills are 3rd/4th in yards before contact all-time. So while this team might look a lot different without Rivers there shouldn’t be much negative effect on Ekeler, if any at all. With the 3k price savings from Cmac, he should be highly considered.
Josh Jacobs $6800
A late addition to my running back group. Jacobs saw a massive workload last year and paid off his position while healthy. This year there have been talks of working him into the passing game which raises his floor and ceilings alike. We love when our running backs can catch passes out of the backfield.
Kenyan Drake $6400
Looking back through the Arizona game logs you see they’re one of the more dependable teams in terms of running back usage. If a guy is healthy and he’s their lead back he’s going to be out there 70% of the time. Couple that fact with Kenyan’s ability to catch passes and the bump RB’s get from mobile, running QB’s and I’m sold on Drake. Either as part of a stack or simply by himself.
Chris Carson $6200
Carson, when healthy, had a massive role in this offense, on one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Heck, sometimes to a fault, they even run the ball when they’re down at times. If he can get going early and supplant Hyde as the “hot hand” on Sunday then he has a clear path to 15+ rushes along with 3-4 catches.
Kareem Hunt $5100
This is a flyer play. We saw Hunt get involved quite a bit last year after he served his suspension. The guy has more tools, in terms of what he can bring to a team, than Nick Chubb. Primarily that’s his ability to catch balls out of the backfield. With the significant price savings between the two, he’s my preferred choice. Additionally, I see Baltimore leading in this game and as a result, I expect to see a more pass-oriented approach from the Browns which only makes me like Hunt even more. One of the major points of hesitation for me is the slow pace at which Baltimore plays and the amount of time they can possess the ball, which limits the overall plays for the Browns and in turn Hunt.
Michael Thomas $9000
This one doesn’t need a ton of explanation. It’s a high-priced play because it’s a good play. Thomas dominates the target share for the Saints and there’s no reason to believe that doesn’t continue this year. To top that off, over the last two years he has 20% more yards at home.
Davante Adams $7300
Last year I was super high on Adams as a season-long pick. Ranking him as my top WR target in the first round. That didn’t pan out the way I had hoped. However, that seems to have depressed his price. He’s entirely too cheap for the role he has in the offense and he’s going against a team that had some issues covering guys last season. I like him, but he will be popular.
Target Share 31% – with game lines of 20DKFP and 26DKFP against the Vikings Last year
DJ Moore/Robby Anderson $6600/$4700
Look I made the case for Teddy earlier, and he’s going to need someone to throw to for him to accrue his points. While they’re both great for GPP, I’m of the belief that Moore will see more targets and have a higher floor this week and moving forward. What’s more, is out of his best 4 games last year the Panthers lost 3 of them. Coming into this game as a dog bodes well for DJ and his production. In terms of Anderson, his ceiling is right there, he’s got the speed to separate and find the end zone multiple times in one week.
Chris Godwin $7100
Tom Brady has always gravitated towards his slot receivers and with Mike Evans banged up Chris Godwin looks to start his 2020 campaign where he left off in 2019.
DeAndre Hopkins $6800
The price is too cheap for someone that can easily be considered the best WR in the game. Reports are that Richard Sherman has been practicing on both sides of the field which might mean he gets shadow coverage. Despite that, I’m not concerned with Hopkins, but if true that makes guys like Christian Kirk and Larry Fitz attractive cheap options for stacking.
Marvin Jones $5500
Marvin fits perfectly into the areas the Bears have trouble defending. Couple that with Golladay likely missing this game and it appears to be a smash spot for Marvin. There’s a lot of optimism about this Lions offense after the way they started last year, before the injuries really decimated the team.
George Kittle $7200
No Deebo + Cardinal TE Flow Chart defense. How can this go wrong?
Mark Andrews $6000
Andrews was on the receiving end of Lamar Jackson touchdown passes quite a bit last year. With Hayden Hurst gone we will see Andrews continue to have a huge impact in the Ravens Air attack.
Darren Waller $5900
Waller is only in his second year but that gives him a veteran designation amongst the pass catchers. Coming off a campaign where he saw 25% of the targets I expect his role to be similar, if not greater to, start the season.
Zach Ertz $5800
With the Eagles depleted at WR to start the year, it’s a fantastic spot for Ertz who has seen games of 10+ targets from Carson Wentz on multiple occasions over the years. While the public seems to be gravitating toward Desean Jackson, I’m looking at Ertz to get some extra volume.
Ryan Fitzpatrick had a connection with two guys last year. One was Davante Parker; I love him but word is he’s still not 100% from the hamstring injury that has limited him during training camp. In a game that Miami should be trailing, Gesicki is a target that Fitz looked too last year and it shouldn’t be any different this year.
New England $3200
They might be missing some key parts from last year but in a game where Fitz might be forcing the ball into coverage, it’s a spot that looks like it might have defensive TD upside.
Dwayne Haskins isn’t a good QB yet. He may never be, but that isn’t a concern for me. It’s this week and we know what we’re getting to some extent. That being said I’m looking for QB’s that throw interceptions and hoping we can get one run back for a TD. It’s less about the defense than it is who they’re playing against. In League of Legends, we target teams that give up a lot of kills, not just teams that get a lot of kills. This is a similar situation.
See above. Phillip Rivers will absolutely force the ball into places it doesn’t belong. Or at least that’s been the case for the last few years with the Chargers. Will that change with the Colts? Perhaps, or maybe he throws a few ducks and one finds it’s way back for a pick 6. The Jags are cheap, will have virtually no ownership and while they certainly aren’t what they once were, it’s a potentially huge leverage spot.