Tipsy Picks Week 6
Tipsy Picks Week 6
Extreme values. Miracle dependent plays. One-off shots off the beaten path!
You’ll need a few beers or a stiff pour of bourbon to stomach these picks…
Fear not, the videos will return in week 7!
Let’s crack that beer and dive right in!
(I finally am quitting Daniel Jones… bring Eli back! But I was so right on Carr!)
I’m not sure I can call any QB picks tipsy this week. They simply make sense! So instead of pure price let’s look at ridiculously under-owned guys.
Gardner Minshew II $6,400 vs DET (3.3%)
Detroit is giving up the 5th most points to QBs, the 8th most points to WR, and for that matter the 3rd most points against the RB. This screams STACK to me but the ownership at 3.3% makes it seem maybe I’m on an island here? Minshew has basically hit floor value every week but 1. I feel he’s safe on that level and has a reasonable ceiling in this matchup at home against a perennially disappointing Lions team.
Ben Roethlisberger $6,700 vs CLE (2.7%)
Frankly, I am baffled by this… The Browns are bottom 5 against QB and the WORST against giving up points to WR… This is like a slam dunk! Do I really need to explain this? Load him up with JuJu, Claypool, or if you want to differentiate, I’m more than good with James Washington.
Carson Wentz $5,600 vs BAL (0.7%)
Ok I lied… this is as Tipsy as it gets! But let’s figure there will be no running game against this Ravens D, and that Baltimore should win easily and that Wentz will have to throw 40 times? I can’t be convinced to go any lower in salary, so if you want to save money, and play someone literally no one else is, lock him in!
Low Salary Favorite
Ryan Tannehill $5,900 vs HOU (15.3%) is crazy underpriced but the market recognizes that with the highest project ownership of the QB’s
Gibson’s game script turned on him and with Alex “Check Down” Smith in they moved to more McKissic… BUT! Man was I right on Chase Edmonds!
Adrian Peterson/D’Andre Swift $4,700/$4,500 @ JAX (0.5%/0.5%)
This is a game script choice. If you believe in Vegas saying the Lions are 3-point road favorites then you think Peterson will be heavily involved in ball control. If you think, like me, that Jacksonville is clearly the better team and that there will be classic Lions garbage time in the 4th quarter than you need my man Swift in there! He’s practically a lock for me. I must be into the bourbon now to be recommending Lions players in any fashion…
Phillip Lindsay $4,300 @ NE (4.3%)
I hate this matchup and I am not actually a fan of this guy but when you get a lead back, due to Gordon being ruled out, for almost bare bottom pricing you have to at least consider it. He was a thousand-yard rusher in 2019 and has been competent in the lead role in the past.
Mike Boone $4,000 vs ATL (0.5%)
I want action in this game but all the pieces are going to be chalk and highly owned. Mattison was active and used even while Cook has been lighting the world on fire, so the Vikings will mix Boone in. Mattison is also not the workhorse Cook was so I think Boone will see more of the mix than Mattison saw behind Cook. At rock bottom price I like him to differentiate more than I like Kyle Rudulph or Irv Smith. Can’t forget about Boone’s DFS BOOM that one time… lol
Watson was on his way before he got hurt and Preston Williams was FIRE!!!!
Damiere Byrd $3,500 vs DEN (2.9%)
I can’t quit a guy that is one of 11 players to still be averaging over 90% of snaps played and hit nearly 4x value 2 of 4 weeks played with 9 and 10 targets those weeks! He seems to be ok with Cam or whoever behind center and you won’t find a WR this low with that much usage!
Cordarrelle Paterson $3,200 @ CAR (1.0%)
If Chicago wants to win they need to get creative in the running game against the worst run D in the league. Patterson has the ability to line up in the backfield as well as gadget plays and one would think this is a week he will see more of such plays. Add in the possibility of a Punt or KO return for a TD and you have some value here.
James Washington $4,200 vs CLE (0.1%)
See above why I love the PIT passing game and consider that Diontae is out. Claypool had a magnificent week that likely will not be repeated and will garner extra attention. Look for Washington in the red zone to contribute this week; he’s the absolute best way to get a piece of this offense without overpaying.
Tim Patrick $4,500 @ NE (1.9%)
Gordon has been ruled out so the DEN passing game usage will get a tick up. Patrick is probably my favorite player on offense for the Broncos and at sub 5k and under 2% owned he will find a way onto my lineups.
Salary Saving TEs
Irv Smith- $2,500 high volume offense as the team’s 4th most targeted player
Trey Burton- $3,100 Doyle has been a non-factor and Mo is out
Darren Fells- $3,800 Akins may not play and this team loves the TE spot
I’m paying up at DEF this week, but if you want to go low…
Cincinnati $2,100 – Any team against Rivers gets Pick-6 upgrade! (worked last week!)