Prize Picks – Fantasy Football Blueprint

Betting Dangerously

Jonny Danger shares his favorite bets on the new Prize Picks betting platform.

Get access to this and all our DFS content here!

Prize Picks is a (new to me) site that allows you the thrill to pick fantasy players and root for or against guys in every game, without the fear of going up against DFS professionals or massive multi-entry players.

Simply pick a selection of 2, 3, or 4 players and decide whether they will go over or under their fantasy points projection. No other entries to fight against, no optimal lineup builders to outsmart. You evaluate a game and the situation for individual players and place your picks!

2 of 2 Power Play wins you 3x your entry

2 of 2 Flex Play wins you 2x your entry

1 of 2 Flex Play wins you 0.5x your entry

3 of 3 Power Play wins you 5x your entry

3 of 3 Flex Play wins you 2.25x your entry

2 of 3 Flex Play wins you 1.25x your entry

4 of 4 Power Play wins you 10x your entry

4 of 4 Flex Play wins you 5x your entry

3 of 4 Flex Play wins you 1.5x your entry

Join us now @ https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=blueprint

(Get a 100% match when you sign up and deposit!)

10/29

Let’s look at the Thursday Night NFL showdown!

ATL Falcons (49.5)

CAR Panther (-3)

Don’t stress each individual player. Don’t make it that hard on yourself. Find your story on how the game will play out and apply that across the board. If you make sense of the game flow needed for the outcome you will believe will happen then all the players should neatly fall into line.

I’m actually fairly intrigued by this game. The Falcons are giving up 333 passing yards a game and the Panthers are giving up ridiculous numbers to RBs that can catch the ball. Though Carolina’s defense has been in the top 3rd, they aren’t really great in any spot and are among the absolute worst at stopping 3rd down conversions at a whopping 56.3% conversion against rate. This will also most likely be the last chance Mike Davis has to impersonate CMC. I expect this game to go well over this opening 49.5 total. You should get your over bets in NOW with your local sportsbook before it goes up!

For PrizePicks you need to select 2, 3, or 4 players and choose if they will go over or under their projected point totals. Basically playing by standard PPR fantasy scoring on most platforms. Make your selections, choose your entry amount, and win real money on the spot when you are correct! It’s the latest fantasy sports game and one of the most fun around!

See their App or Page for full scoring, rules, and eligibility requirements.

The Breakdown

Matt Ryan (21) 325 2TD

Such a confusing team. This should be a no brainer with the weapons this team has. Sadly he has only hit this number 3 of 7 weeks so far. The Panthers are top 10 against the pass and have really struggled against a solid run game. On the road, in division, I like this game to go over but I worry it won’t all be through the air. I want to play at least 1 of the WRs for the Falcons so I am fading this pick. He’s only going to get it if he throws 3 TD’s. Only Brees and Murray did it this year and only because of Murray’s rushing yards and Brees happened to run one in. I don’t see it for Matty. UNDER

Teddy Bridgewater (21) 275 2TD and 20 yards rushing

The easy thing to do is just take the over here. Teddy scored 20.8 last time in this format and Stafford came just shy of it by only throwing 1 TD with his 350 yards. All other QB’s went over on the year. So I am a healthy OVER here.

Todd Gurley (16.5) 55 Yards & TD with 3 catch for 20 yards

He is averaging a TD a game on the ground. He’s Averaging 69 yards a game on the ground. Now do you believe he can add 2-3 catches for 15-20 yards? Against this Panthers team that is an emphatic yes. Click that OVER!

Julio Jones (18.4) 75 Yards and 5 catches and a TD

Julio destroys the Panthers for a hobby. Over 15 games he is averaging 5.5 catches on 9.5 targets for 92.7 yards and TD every other game. Don’t forget the famous 300 yard game was against Carolina as well! All to say I am on the OVER here because I believe that TD is coming.

Robby Anderson (17.5) 8 catches 95

Robby just doesn’t score. But he really doesn’t have to in order to get over here. There is a high likelihood of snaps for both sides in this game and I think he can get there with or without a TD. It’s super close, and I would probably find my picks somewhere else but I am leaning the OVER in this game.

Calvin Ridley (18.4) 5 catches 75 yards and a TD

Same exact line as Julio and same exact reasoning. I think both guys can hit their numbers and score. I could easily see it happening with probably the best one/two punch in football at WR. I’m in on this as well. I know I am predicting that both Ridley and Jones get their numbers and Ryan falls short of his but that is a reality that not only is possible, but likely.

DJ Moore (16) 5 catches 50 yards and a TD

I guess I just like the over everywhere! I love the DJ Moore touchdown prop, I like him for the first TD of the game and I like him to hit this projection with no real issue. Give me all the DJ Moore OVER

Hayden Hurst (9.2) 4 catches 55 yards

Finally you are going to get an under from me. Hurst has not fit in like Hooper had in the past few years. He just isn’t as athletic or elusive in coverage. Big plays are going to the big 3 in this offense this week. Without a TD I can’t find a way he gets there so I am a firm UNDER.

Curtis Samuel (10) 5 catches 50 yards.

The only TD he has had on the year was a running play last week. I don’t like his scoring chances even in this matchup. He has only gone over this line twice and one was only due to the rushing score. I think it’s a fairly safe UNDER.

Joey Slye (9) 2 Field Goals (30+ and 40+) with 2 Extra Points

I kinda love this play. I’m not always fond of kickers because they are so sporadic but I could see that stat line easy. I like the Panther for 3 TDs and at least 2 FGs. love this OVER

Good Luck!!!

-Jonny Danger

Join us now @ https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=blueprint

(Get a 100% match when you sign up and deposit!)

Get the app and use Blueprint in your referral spot to get that 100% deposit bonus!

————————————–

10/26

Let’s look at the Monday Night NFL showdown!

CHI Bears (45)

LA Rams (-6)

This is a great game to get some fun picks placed. The public views this Bears Offense as lacking and undersells how good the LA defense has actually been. The -6 in favor of the Rams seems out of place to me. I would venture this game should be closer than that and I’m not ruling out the ability of the Bears to win outright. I do lean to the under on the scoring prop so I will be crafting my picks around the low-scoring narrative.

See their App or Page for full scoring, rules, and eligibility requirements.

The Breakdown

Nick Foles (15.5) 200 2TD

The Rams have given up this much fantasy points to every QB this year except Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones. Foles is more than capable of pulling this out and even in a low-scoring game, he could also snipe a goal line TD as he is a large body that they do use in the running game in tight situations. I am OVER on Foles.

Jared Goff (18.2) 250 2TD

The Bears have held every single QB this year to under this. Including Stafford, Ryan, Brady… I can’t really come up with many scenarios that put him in any better spots than those other guys were in so I feel really good about this UNDER.

David Montgomery (14.9) 50 Yards & TD with 2 catch for 25 yards

The problem is, he just hasn’t scored… You have to take a leap of faith that he is due and go with it if you want the over here. He has 1 rushing and 1 receiving TD on the year. Positive regression has to be coming so I am on board with the OVER based on him getting a TD tonight.

Darrel Henderson Jr (12) 70 Yards and 2 catches 30 yards

We have a situation here that has shown him hitting these numbers exactly half of his games. There are 2 quality backs also in the backfield in Brown and Akers. He has shown that he deserves the touches but this game might force them to get creative offensively and utilize all 3 guys. If it was just him I would be all over this over, but because for no reason it could be a Malcolm Brown week or Cam could get 9 carries again, I have to go UNDER. Too many scenarios that could see under usage for me.

Allen Robinson (15.5) 7 catches 85

I am avoiding this spot personally. The catches and yardage are good medians for him but this Rams Defense has been good against the WR position. I don’t think he gets there tonight without the TD. Since I am going with Monty to get at least 1 I think I have to go UNDER.

Cooper Kupp (15) 7 catches 80 yards

Here is a case, again, that I am avoiding. This is a good line normally and he is always a threat to score. I think with this Defense he will either need to have double digit short catches or a breakaway TD to hit this. He has only done so twice this year so far and the Bears Defense is solid. I’m probably looking elsewhere tonight but if forced to choose I am on the UNDER

Jimmy Graham (8) 5 catches 30 yards

The Rams have been weakest against the TE and Jimmy has seen consistent usage for 4 straight weeks. I think this line is only just under his median scoring and I like this game script for the TE. OVER

Tyler Higbee (8) 3 catches 50 yards

Though the Bears also give up decent production to the TE we have an injury situation to be aware of. Higbee has a bum hand and is questionable tonight. I think he plays but Everett is physically more dominating and will see at least half the targets even when both are healthy. I’m a confident UNDER here.

Anthony Miller (7) 3 catches 40 yards.

This is a very interesting spot. I like that Robinson demands double teams most of the time. You only need Miller to catch a few balls and a TD guarantees that number. It’s close, but in a tight game I probably look for picks besides this one. But I barely favor the OVER.

Robert Woods (14.5) 4 catches 45 yards and a TD

I like Kupp more for how this game pans out. I think outside passes are going to get tough and the slot and RB dump-offs will be where most of the production comes from. I don’t like the Rams to score more than 17-20 points so I have to go UNDER here as well.

Apparently I have much less confidence in the LAR side of the ball and seems I am on the Bears +6…

As always, I don’t usually play kickers unless I have a good feeling. I usually lean UNDER on both in low total games and I don’t do IDP so if you want to play defensive players there is all kinds of great IDP info out there for you to find.

Good Luck!!!

-Jonny Danger

Join us now @ https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=blueprint

(Get a 100% match when you sign up and deposit!)

Get the app and use Blueprint in your referral spot to get that 100% deposit bonus!

—————————————————–

10/25

Let’s look at the Sunday Night NFL showdown!

SEA Seahawks (-3.5)

ARI Cardinals (54.5)

In-division rivalry is heating up! Can Russell keep the team undefeated on the road or will their complete lack of defense finally catch up to them. I don’t know about you but I am going to have a hard time picking anyone as an under tonight!

See their App or Page for full scoring, rules, and eligibility requirements.

The Breakdown

Russell Wilson (26) 300 3TD, 20 yards rushing

Is this a joke? Like for real? ALL DAY SMASH THIS OVER! Wilson is -120 to win the MVP after only 6 weeks of play. That’s crazy! I mean dude could get 16-22 in TD’s alone… OVER

Kyler Murray (25.4) 275 1TD, 45 yards rushing and TD

Are people just predicting a trap game here? Is it supposed to be snowing in Arizona? I just don’t get this. He is #1 in fantasy scoring this year. OVER!

Chris Carson (17.5) 50 Yards & TD with 3 catches for 35 yards

I mean come on people… don’t get cute. This is a standard line for the man. Yeah. OVER.

Kenyan Drake (13.5) 75 Yards and 3 catches 30 yards

This seems like a very easy over right? I mean he TORCHED last week. But I am really not sure. He isn’t averaging either of those projected rushing yards or catches.. It feels like he needs the TD to pay off. So make your choice, if you think he scores go over, but he hasn’t hit this number in any game besides last week. This will be a fast flowing air attack game and I’m leaning Edmonds with more value so UNDER.

DK Metcalf (18) 4 catches 80 yards and a TD

His median is above that. Can you really see any way besides injury he doesn’t get 8-10 targets and a chance at multiple TD’s or a 100 yard game? Me either. OVER

DeAndre Hopkins (18.5) 8 catches 105 yards

This is what he averages without a TD… he only has 2 of those on the year and TD positive regression is going to hit him. This will be his best chance to get that straight so this is an EASY smash OVER against the easiest Defense to score on for WRs.

Tyler Lockett (16.8) 6 catches 50 yards and a TD

Two down games might have people off Lockett. This total needs a TD and I am on the fence here. I’m probably playing elsewhere, in fact I am probably not playing any WR as I want to hit that over button on both QBs something fierce. If forced to pick I go OVER, but I advise avoiding this spot.

Christian Kirk (13) 4 catches 30 yards and a TD

Following a career game I think he is ready to step up as a true WR2 and the targets should flow tonight. He could hit that total without a TD so an easy OVER for me.

Greg Olsen (8) 5 catches 30 yards

Even though I expect a bunch of air yards tonight, Greg just hasn’t been a huge part of the offense. He could always get a lucky TD, but I’m not here to tell you that. It’s going to be a focus on the main 2 guys and Carson tonight, take the UNDER.

Larry Fitzgerald (8.5) 4 catches 45 yards

This is too much to ask with Kirk emerging, Drake being relevant, Edmonds splitting out wide and Andy Isabella taking up those under routes. Sorry buddy, but I ain’y Livin’ Like Larry tonight. I’m going UNDER.

As always I don’t really play kickers. I usually lean OVER on both in high total games and I don’t do IDP so if you want to play defensive players there are all kinds of great IDP info out there for you to find.

Good Luck!!!

-Jonny Danger

Join us now @ https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=blueprint

(Get a 100% match when you sign up and deposit!)

Get the app and use Blueprint in your referral spot to get that 100% deposit bonus!

——————————————–

Let’s look at the Thursday Night NFL showdown!

NY Giants (44.0)

PHI Eagles (-3.5)

Both of these teams have 1 win. It is possible we get a 6-10 team into the playoffs from this garbage division. The Eagles were finally looking to get fully healthy with Alshon and D Jax looking to return by Thursday. That thought came to a halt with Miles Sanders now expected to miss a week or two and Ertz now out a month.

The Giants seem to now trust Freeman with a full workload but the Eagles are still fairly stout against the RB position. There just isn’t enough volume or consistency to trust any of the Giants WRs or TEs in seasonal or DFS, but that is the joy of PrizePicks, you can play the under on guys that just stink and profit!

This game has a very low total because they are just awful. I like the passing game of the Eagles to show some life without Sanders or Ertz and a full complement of WRs. Now the question will be whose turn is it? Fulgham has been solid for 3 straight weeks but will that be impacted with D Jax and Alshon returning? Can Boston Scott find more room than Sanders?

I tend to favor the Kickers in this game…

See their App or Page for full scoring, rules, and eligibility requirements.

The Breakdown

Daniel Jones (16) 225 1TD, 50 yards rushing and an INT

I just don’t see it. Divisional matchup on the road, completely inaccurate passing, little hope of a running game making it easier in the pocket. Short and sweet, I’m UNDER.

Carson Wentz (19) 275 2TD

That is above his average. Not only that, he hasn’t thrown for 275 yards yet this year and he has only thrown for even 250 twice. NY seems bad in public perception… and they are but they actually are only averaging giving up 235 yards a game through the air and only 2 have gone over 275. I really think this Eagles team is bad so I’m UNDER here as well.

Devonta Freeman (12) 50 Yards & TD with 1 catch for 10 yards

Hmm… this really seems possible. Like it’s the perfect line for Freeman. I’m probably looking elsewhere but, I kinda like the OVER here. Philly is kinda leaking yardage slowly to the running game and Freeman is more at home after a few weeks in the offense. Yeah. OVER.

Boston Scott (12) 60 Yards and 3 catches 30 yards

Giants have been fairly good against the run, but this is such a low number. I think with the WR strength coming back for Philly they won’t need the dump-off passes that could accumulate for Scott. This is another one to probably avoid but If I am being forced to pick I say UNDER.

Darius Slayton (12.5) 6 catches 65 yards

This is more than he is averaging in both catches and yards so you are hoping for a score. The news hasn’t broken yet whether Sterling Shepard will come off IR in time for the game. So if you are locking in this prop now, I go UNDER. If Sterling returns I see this line getting adjusted down. If it dips to 9.5-10 you can consider over.

Travis Fulgham (13) 6 catches 65 yards

If he sees the same amount of action as he has over the past 2.5 games he is looking like a strong case for the over. I think this line moves down when news of D Jax and Alshon gets solidified. If locking in now I go UNDER. IF it appears the other 2 aren’t coming back you can go OVER in the coming days.

Evan Engram (9) 4 catches 50 yards

He’s only hit these numbers 2 times this year but I am confident this is the week! The Eagles have been shredded for catches, yards and immense TDs by opposing Tight Ends this year and I am feeling the TD for Engram. OVER

Richard Rodgers (7) 4 catches 30 yards

The Giants have been pretty solid against the TE but Philly loves to target theirs. I haven’t seen enough of Rodgers to know his skill set, but feeling pretty confident in the UNDER if D Jax or Alshon are back.

Golden Tate (9) 5 catches 40 yards

This is a spot Tate could take advantage of if Shepard is back. If he works the middle with Engram there is room to exploit the Philly D. I’m probably avoiding this spot though, and though I see a path to a decent game, the first 6 weeks of the year say to take the UNDER.

Greg Ward (9.5) 4 catches 55 yards

Ward is the big loser in my book if the 2 other WRs get back on the field this week. I don’t like the matchup or usage and at 9.5 I take that UNDER. Lock it in quick before the line changes or he’s removed altogether from the slate with the return of Jackson or Jeffrey.

As always I don’t really play kickers. I lean OVER on both and I don’t do IDP so if you want to play defensive players there are all kinds of great IDP info out there for you to find.

Good Luck!!!

-Jonny Danger

Join us now @ https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=blueprint

(Get a 100% match when you sign up and deposit!)

Get the app and use Blueprint in your referral spot to get that 100% deposit bonus!

Join us now @ https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=blueprint

(Get a 100% match when you sign up and deposit!)

Let’s look at tonight’s NFL showdown!

ARI (55.0)

DAL (-1)

We get to watch a full game of Dak-free football on the side of the Cowboys against a team that continues to disappoint in the Cardinals. We thought that Kyler Murray with newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins would be explosive and Kenyan Drake would want to prove he was a featured back. I can’t say Hopkins has been anything but sensational but that’s where my praise will end. On the other side, the Cowboys have fielded perhaps the decades worst defense, but have been in every game thanks to Dak’s league-leading yardage and an impressive offense.

This week will test the veteran arm of Andy Dalton and give him the best weapons he has had in his career. He isn’t as mobile and doesn’t have as big of an arm but the threat of Zeke and ability of his pass-catchers should give him a healthy share of fantasy points tonight.

You have to like all the WRs on the Arizona side as calling the Dallas secondary Swiss cheese gives a bad name to the cheese…

See their App or Page for full scoring, rules, and eligibility requirements.

The Breakdown

Kyler Murray (25.5) 250 1TD, 55 yards rushing and a TD

Rushing has saved the year for Kyler’s seasonal owners and I don’t see any reason that he doesn’t succeed tonight as well. This is a very spot on projection that I would probably stay away from but if forced to pick I am going OVER.

Andy Dalton (20) 300 2TD

I think this is pretty low considering what he will need to put up to compete in this game. They may rely more on the run than they have if they can keep the scoring down but all signs point to shootout the same as all the previous weeks. Smash the OVER.

Kenyan Drake (13.4) 60 Yards & TD with 1 catch for 10 yards

I mean, those are his exact averages for the most part. This offense will be running a ton of plays and even with Edmonds eating into his time I don’t see any reason why he doesn’t hit just that. OVER

Ezekiel Elliot (22.5) 75 Yards and a TD, 5 catches 40 yards

Though Zeke hasn’t gone over 100 yards yet I can make a case for this to be his first of the year. Cardinals D has been decent against the run but it is their softest spot and without Dak the Cowboys need to get Zeke to regain the monster status he used to command. OVER

DeAndre Hopkins (21) 6 catches 90 yards and a TD

Hopkins is a pure BEAST and should be the focal point yet again. They are going to get a bunch of targets his way and I could easily see double-digits catches, triple-digit yardage and multiple TDs. OVER in a big way.

Amari Cooper (15.5) 7 catches 85 yards

Cooper is very up and down, though traditionally better at home he came up super small last week against the Giants. The strength of the Cardinals Defense is its ability to shut down the big outside receiver and the couple drives that Dalton took over he seemed to favor Gallup over Cooper. Arizona gives up the slot and the RB out of the backfield. I’m going UNDER on Amari.

Christian Kirk (9) 4 catches 50 yards

It is possible that Hopkins draws the double team all night and Kirk gets single covered. Isabella has seen nice production and Chase Edmonds has been effectively the second receiver in this offense. It’s such a low number in a fast-paced, high-scoring game, but I think I’m still UNDER but just barely. Probably avoiding this spot.

Ceedee Lamb (13) 7 catches 60 yards

Lamb has solidified himself as the perhaps the main focus of the passing game. I don’t see how he goes under those totals. His only hold up is he only has 2 TDs on the year and those came in the same game. His usage suggests positive regression on the TD front so I am on the OVER fairly confidently.

Larry Fitzgerald (7.5) 3 catches 45 yards

He just doesn’t have any juice left and when Hopkins is simply dominant he doesn’t have to be. I can’t believe I am going to under 7.5 but truth is he only has hit this number once this year. UNDER

Dalton Schultz (8.5) 3 catches 55 yards

I’m not sure if Dalton will be a guy that targets the TE as much as Dak has. I’m really down on this position for the Cowboys until I see how it shakes out. Without being as mobile, I think Andy Dalton will need more blocking and Schultz will be stuck on the line instead of running routes. UNDER

As always I don’t really play kickers though lean OVER on both and I don’t do IDP so if you want to play defensive players there are all kinds of great IDP info out there for you to find.

Good Luck!!!

-Jonny Danger

Join us now @ https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=blueprint

(Get a 100% match when you sign up and deposit!)

Get the app and use Blueprint in your referral spot to get that 100% deposit bonus!

—————————————————————–

LA Rams -2.5

SF 49ers (51.5)

You have a free-falling Niners facing off against the red-hot Rams. San Fran seems healthier than they have been all year with Mostert, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, and Jimmy Grapes all in action tonight! Their defense is still struggling and without Sherman but does get slightly healthier in the secondary.

Rams are full-powered with their three-headed monster backfield of guys that can all get it done. The trick is finding which one. I hate picking Rams players because you have so many parts that can take off as even the backup TE is worthy of consideration in DFS.

I like this score actually to go under 51.5 but I can understand if you land on the other side. The trick to choosing these over/unders is making the game narrative make sense in your head and playing accordingly.

I like both teams’ running games in a hard-fought divisional game in a grudge match for one team to prove last year wasn’t a fluke and for the other to keep pace with Seattle for the division lead. I don’t really think either team is going to be in a fast-paced pushing style tonight and could see only 3-4 TDs happening on the night. That being the case I like the running games and am not really high on either QB.

49ers were shredded last week by Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki, but so far this year they have not really been weak in those zones. Cooper Kupp is a hell of a football player when he and Goff are in sync and both TE’s for the Rams have upside. On the other side, the Niners are a top 2 or 3 rushing team and have all the horses in their stable healthy and ready to go. I expect a bunch of Mostert and play-action passes.

See their App or Page for full scoring, rules, and eligibility requirements.

The Breakdown

Jared Goff (20.5) 225 3TD

That just seems high in the match up. Goff needs well over 300 yards or 3 TDs. As I stated above I don’t like the pace of this game being that high. I just like the running game more. I’m a fairly solid UNDER here.

Jimmy Garoppolo (16.5) 200 2TD

This feels pretty achievable given the health of the players around him but Jimmy hasn’t been sharp. Add an INT possibility in there and a reliance on the run and I can see several ways he doesn’t get there. UNDER again.

Darrell Henderson Jr. (12) 60 Yards & TD

Picking the right running back that will go off is tough here as Brown has also been excellent when given the opportunity and the future star Akers is another week off the injury list. If Henderson gets the lead touches he goes over but since there are two other guys there I am going UNDER.

Raheem Mostert (15) 65 Yards, 3 catches and a TD

When healthy he seems to be a focal point of the offense. I like this as a pretty confident OVER unless they get behind fast and are forced to throw more.

Cooper Kupp (16.5) 6 catches 105 yards

I like Cupp most of all the weapons today. He could easily see double-digit short targets and always a chance to score. He is my guy I see succeeding and therefore am taking the OVER.

Deebo Samuel (12) 4 catches 80 yards

With all the weapons back I don’t see them relying on Deebo as much as they did last year. If you think he gets in the endzone this is an over but I like other parts more this week. I’m going UNDER.

Robert Woods (16) 6 catches 100 yards

I think the Niners will be able to contain Woods. There isn’t enough offense to go around to like the over on both he and Kupp so that defaults me to the UNDER here.

Brandon Aiyuk (10) 4 catches 60 yards

I like how they have used him when other guys were out but with Deebo a week healthier and the RBs all back and ready to rumble I am sadly on the UNDER on this exciting rookie.

Tyler Higbee (8) 4 catches 40 yards

Higbee and Everett seem to trade off on good weeks but I don’t really like either as the Niners have been solid versus traditional TEs. I prefer Everett this week anyway. Again I am on the UNDER.

George Kittle (16.5) 5 catches 60 yards and a TD

If you see George scoring like I do I don’t see any way he goes under. The true focal point of the offense is to force the box to tighten on the run and play-action pass to Kittle. I see this in the cards all night long and am smashing the OVER!

As always I don’t really play kickers though I lean OVER on both and I don’t do IDP so if you want to play defensive players there are all kinds of great IDP info out there for you to find.

Good Luck!!!

-Jonny Danger

Join us now @ https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=blueprint

(Get a 100% match when you sign up and deposit!)

Get the app and use Blueprint in your referral spot to get that 100% deposit bonus!

——————————————————-

10/8 NLF Showdown

Check out this new fantasy game — just picking over/under on player projections and payouts are fast and easy. You get a 25 percent match when you deposit!

Join me with the link below!

If you set up a new account tonight and make your first deposit, not only will you get that 25% bonus but if you make a minimum $10 bet on the 4 for 4 game (not the flex) and hit all 4 in tonight’s NFL Matchups, show us the screenshot and we will send you $25!

https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292

We have the current lowest point total of the week to start off our Thursday Night Game!

A couple of rules. You can’t pair up a QB with their own WR or TE. Normally that is a bummer for me during single-game slates but not tonight baby!

Scoring:

1 Pt per 25 passing yards

4 Pts per passing TD

1 Pt per 10 yards rushing

1 Pt per 10 yards receiving

1 Pt per reception

6 Pt per rushing or receiving TD

-1 Pt per Interception

-1 Pt per Fumble

Let’s Break it down!

TB (-3.5)

CHI (44.0 O/U)

I’m not crazy about this game and if was a main-slate DFS contest I would most likely avoid. That is what is great about PrizePicks though, even if you aren’t excited about any of these guys in season-long or DFS contests we can still get in on the action!

As my boy Chris Emrick says, let’s not focus on being right, instead come up with the scenarios that could happen and tell the story of how the game will go.

Some key stats to think about:

TB ranked #2 in stopping rushing yards

TB ranked #4 DVOA against the passing game

CHI ranked #5 DVOA against the passing game

CHI very good at stopping 3rd downs and minimizing TDs in the Red Zone.

CHI given up only 3 passing TDs this year and all to TEs

I’m down with Vegas in that it should be a low scoring game. I hate the matchups for both Evans (banged up and facing Jaylon Johnson) and Robinson (possibly drawing majority coverage by Carlton Davis), however, there will be no denying their volume upside. The weakness of both defenses is more likely against the run, so I like the RB’s on both sides more than the receiving options, and also like the TE’s to be the bigger story.

Let’s get into the picks!

Tom Brady (18) 250 yards 2 TD

Normally that line is pretty solid Brady output. I fear his less-than-healthy WRs will be an issue and the Bears will concede the TEs to keep Evans out of play. I’m taking the UNDER here and so are my cohosts if you listened to our live weekly show last night on our Facebook page (Draught For Upside).

Nick Foles (16) 200 Yards 2 TD

The Chicago passing game should struggle here and the game plan will be run the ball and control clock. If you think the Bears cover tonight or even have a chance to win as I do then this is the way. Firm UNDER for me but my cohosts both like the over as they think TB gets out to a lead and the Bears have to abandon their game plan.

Ronald Jones (15) 75 yards 4 catches for 35 yards

I just have this feeling that even though this game favors the RBs that TB will use TEs in the endzone, will rely on their kicking game, and will use Tom Brady at the goal line more than Jones. Not to mention some buzz about Vaughn stealing some touches. All three of us said to take the UNDER here.

David Montgomery (12) 60 yards and a TD

Coming around from last night and seeing Monty getting more involved in passing downs has me switching lanes. TD potential is high here and a couple grabs out of the backfield and this is an easy over. I’m with Chris on this and taking the OVER.

Rob Gronkowski (7) 4 catches 30 yards

I haven’t wavered on my initial thoughts of a Gronk TD tonight. Even without it that total is reachable in a game without Godwin, Watson, Howard, and banged up Evans and Miller. I’m feeling really good on the OVER here against the advice of Mark and Chris.

Jimmy Graham (7.5) 4 catches 35 yards

Though I have been touting the TE game for tonight, the one I’m least confident in is Graham. The TB Def isn’t great against the TE so this is a spot I’m not sure on. I’m avoiding this spot even though I am playing him in the DFS Showdown! Mark and Chris both said under for what it’s worth and if I’m forced to pick then I’m on the UNDER as well.

Mike Evans (13) 6 catches for 70 yards

As I said before I hate his match up and the Bears are sick against #1 WR and the passing game in general. I don’t like the injury possibility and think Chicago avoids yet another week of WR touchdowns. I’m UNDER while both my co-hosts are thinking over.

Allen Robinson (15.5) 8 catches 75 yards

I know he is in line for probably 9-12 targets… And he could have a very nice game, but I don’t see that over without a TD… I think it’s very close and will most likely avoid this in my picks. Mark and Chris both think over in this and, obviously, think there will be more offense than I expect tonight. Again, if I’m forced to, I’d go UNDER, but I prefer other plays.

Scotty Miller (12) 5 Catches 70 yards

Lots of injuries will give Miller another solid run of targets but I think you need that TD to pay off and those are so hard to rely on. He has injury concerns and a setback in-game is disastrous for over bets. I hate to be a broken record but I am going UNDER again.

Anthony Miller (10) 3 catches 70 yards

This is asking a lot from a guy who is only averaging 4.25 targets a game and 2.33 receptions for 40 yards a game. Only a TD gets him close and he could still miss that 10 if he gets 1 catches for a TD and 8 yards…

I don’t like taking Kickers or IDP guys as the Kickers are completely unreliable week to week and I just don’t follow IDP players.

Cheers and good luck!

-Jonny Danger

BONUS PICKS FOR MLB compliments of Lou Lander!

OVER – Morejon

UNDER – Greinke

OVER – Aroarena

OVER – LeMahieu

If you set up a new account tonight and make your first deposit, not only will you get that 25% bonus but if you make a minimum $10 bet on the 4 for 4 game (not the flex) and hit all 4 in tonights NFL Matchups, show us the screenshot and we will send you $25!

https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292

————————————–

10/5 NFL Showdown

Check out this new fantasy game — just picking over/under on player projections and payouts are fast and easy. You get a 25 percent match when you deposit!

Join me with the link below!

And if you set up a new account tonight and make your first deposit, not only will you get that 25% bonus but if you make a minimum $10 bet on the 4 for 4 game (not the flex) and hit all 4 in tonight’s NFL Matchups, show us the screenshot and we will send you $25!

https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292

What a Monday Night treat with a doubleheader of exciting football! Did your Seasonal league team take a loss? Would you much prefer to play against the house 1-on-1 than a field of thousands? Prize Picks is the game for you!

A couple of rules. You can’t pair up a QB with their own WR or TE. Normally that is a bummer for me during single-game slates but not tonight baby!

Scoring:

1 Pt per 25 passing yards

4 Pts per passing TD

1 Pt per 10 yards rushing

1 Pt per 10 yards receiving

1 Pt per reception

6 Pt per rushing or receiving TD

-1 Pt per Interception

-1 Pt per Fumble

Let’s Break it down!

ATL (56.5 O/U)

GB (-6)

This game should provide more fireworks than the first game on the slate. While you’re watching to see if the NE Defense can solve Mahomes, why not take a look at the late game for some action!

The Falcons can’t hold a lead and the Packers can’t keep WRs healthy. GB is going to try to run the ball 35 times and Ryan will do his best to keep them in the game and the keep the pace high enough to exploit the GB secondary.

Matt Ryan (20.5) – projection = 312 yards and 2 TDs

The Falcons know they have to score and score and score to have a chance. If you think this game hits that Vegas total that’s 25 points to the Falcons. Ryan should have all 3 top caliber WRs back in action with Jones, Ridley, and Gage and If I had to bet I would say their 3 TDs are coming through the air. I think it’s pretty clear I am on the OVER.

Aaron Rodgers (21.8) projection = 250 yards and 3 TDs

Aaron is averaging 3 TDs a game but this game plan should see them trying to run it all night long. Adams and Lazard are out and Atlanta has not stopped the run yet this year. I’m looking for a smash game out of Aaron Jones and the Pack not needing Rodgers to manufacture the win. I’m feeling confident on the UNDER.

Julio Jones (14) projection = 7 catches for 70 yards

His strength is not the red zone, but when he is in there he regularly sees double-digit targets. If he is suiting up, I trust him to be ready to play. I’m not looking for high totals from him but I would bet his floor is 10 points in this scoring system and I would think if Atlanta is in this game it will be on the shoulders of their best player. I am taking the OVER.

Calvin Ridley (16.5) projection = 5 catches for 55 yards and a TD

That seems really low for a guy that has gotten double-digit targets and over 100 yards each week this year. But that’s what I am banking on, that the streak ends tonight. Julio is more banged up than him and I would think the Packers try to keep him in check more than Jones or Gage. However, someone has to score… and the averages say its going to be Ridley. Everything in my bones says go under…. But I think I’m over… dang. Might just avoid this altogether.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (13) projection = 4 for 90.

I’m really not feeling this. MVS isn’t built to be the main guy. He relies on attention on Adams to get open behind the safeties. He can do it any random play but I just don’t have faith in his usage. I am a solid UNDER here.

Todd Gurley (13.8) projection 60 yards and a TD on the ground with 1 catch for 8 yards.

Gurley has been non-existent in the passing game and fairly inefficient on the ground but the Packers do struggle against the run. I don’t see the Falcons focusing on the running game so if you think Gurley avoids the end zone like I do it’s a safe UNDER.

Aaron Jones (23) projection = 80 yards rushing + TD and 5 catches for 40 Yards.

The Falcons are terrible against the run, Jones is a beast and all of Green Bays WRs are hurt. I’d bet on the floor being 20 points so this is a no-brainer OVER.

Hayden Hurst (8.5) projection = 4 Catches for 45 yards.

Hooper was a huge part of this offense and I really think it’s only a matter of time before Hurst has a breakout game. With Ridley and Jones nursing injuries and Gage fresh off concussion this could set up well. One TD and he’s over. I like those odds. I’m hitting the OVER.

Robert Tonyan (9) Projection = 5 Catches for 40 yards.

I like the slow-paced game script with running and short passes to the TE. This is a really good line for him and if he doesn’t score he probably hits it right on the nose. I’m probably staying clear of this one, but whether you think he scores or not is your deciding factor.

Mason Crosby (9) Projection = 2 FG and 3 Extra Points.

I really hate predicting Kickers. If they control the game at half time he gets these points but if Atlanta scores regularly I don’t see Field Goals being a big part of the game, especially with the Atlanta kicker down with an injury. Falcons will push for TDs and GB will need to score to keep the game out of reach. I’m not going to bet this guy but kinda leaning under if you are.

Sorry I don’t dabble in IDP players so betting on Tackles is up to you!

Cheers and good luck!

Jonny Danger

Reminder, if you set up a new account tonight and make your first deposit, not only will you get that 25% bonus but if you make a minimum $10 bet on the 4 for 4 game (not the flex) and hit all 4 in tonights NFL Matchups, show us the screenshot and we will send you $25!

https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292

————————

10/1 NFL Showdown

Check out this new fantasy game — just picking over/under on player projections and payouts are fast and easy. You get a 25 percent match when you deposit!

Join me with the link below!

https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292

Play against the house instead of other lineups. You just need to decipher the game flow and choose whether the guys will go over or under their projected fantasy points!

Here we go!

First thing I see is a hugely undervalued QB for the Broncos. Brett Rypien is, at the moment, a 12.5 point projection. I really think that total is more of a floor so I’m instantly smashing the over! Both teams are bad… really on both sides of the ball. So as long as they aren’t comically bad, Rypien should go over.

Remember though that you can’t attach a teams QB with his WR or TE options so before you lock him in make sure you have a good read on the other positional players.

On the other side, I don’t expect Darnold to be any worse than he has been and it appears he gets his favorite target in Crowder back, so I feel fairly safe in his over at 14, though not as confident as I am in the Denver QB.

Crowder is currently not included in the options, but if he is, I have him projected at around 13 points, so use that how you see fit if he becomes an option.

If Crowder does go, I think you move the mark down on Berrios (9.5) and that also makes Hogan’s (6.5) floor literally zero, so I’m good with under on both IF Crowder plays. No Crowder in the lineup and I think Hogan is still a safe under and Barrios becomes a coin flip.

Herndon (9) has massively disappointed this year but the Broncos struggle in air defense. Crowder probably opens the middle of the field for him more and he always has a shot at Red Zone looks but I’d be shocked if he goes over. Pretty confident under either way.

For the Kickers, I think both teams struggle to score TDs and could easily see both going over their (7) but am more interested in the over on the Jets kicker at home if I’m even playing either.

Gordon (13.5) should…. should be in a smash spot. I have his projection sitting at 16ish so the current spot they have him at is an easy over for me.

Jeudy (11.5) and Fant (11) are pretty spot on. I favor the running game of the Broncos personally, so if I’m forced to pick I’m going 55% under on both but I’m probably looking elsewhere and playing the Denver QB on an over instead.

Tim Patrick (7) is a guy I like this week. And if not playing Rypien, I could be convinced on his over more than the other two receiving options.

For the IDP guys I have to admit I’m not much of a defense guy so I don’t usually predict those guys. Look up your favorite IDP projections and read up on the scoring method for your best educated guess!

I’ve had a blast on this site and their customer service puts other DFS and Betting sites to shame… feel confident with your money here.

Good luck!

-Jonny Danger

9/23 NBA

I’m no NBA expert but I am a sucker for bonus money on bets! Tonight’s NBA game on Prize Picks features an additional 1.5x on your winnings if you include Jimmy Butler in your picks.

Join me at https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292 and get a 25% bonus on your first Deposit!

Here is your scoring chart for NBA:

Action	Points
Point:	1
Rebound:	1.2
Assist:	1.5
Block:	3
Steal:	3
Turnover:	-1

Here are the players that you can choose from for over/under:

I like Miami to take this game at home. One key too, is that in the playoffs teams tend to stick to their core 7-8 players more than usual. Boston especially…

Boston: Smart, Brown, Walker, and Tatum play basically the entire game with Theis and Gordon filling in most of the time.

Tatum 48 O/U is a tough call. He can dominate a game, but that’s a ton of points in a game I feel they lose. So I’m leaning under but don’t blame you if you think he is the man tonight or that the Celtics will win.

Brown 38.5 O/U is another one I’m on the fence about. He basically never leaves the floor, but again, I like Miami so I like the under but its closer than I want it to be.

Smart 29 O/U is my favorite over bet because of his playing time and that is basically his DraftKings average scoring and I feel Prize Picks is a bit more generous to points when you don’t consider DraftKings bonuses.

Theis 19.5 O/U is a fairly safe under on my opinion. His playing time is game flow dependent and they will need more 3pt shooting than he supplies if the game goes as I see it.

Butler 37.5 O/U is the bonus 1.5x Prize player tonight. As I like his team to win, he has a good shot at leading the scoring. I’m going over on this and even have him in my Captain slot in my DK showdown.

Adebayo 44.5 O/U is a really high score but Bam is a beast and positive gameflow is likely for him. He can absolutely abuse this Celtics team and I’m hammering the over.

Dragic 34 O/U he has under performed recently but should play well tonight. I’m torn here as I think the line is fair. I’m avoiding but might have to come to the over before game lock…

Herro 29.5 O/U is again pretty spot on. If they have to push at the end of the game to win it could haunt me, but I lean slightly under here. Mostly avoiding.

Robinson 18.9 O/U Miami spread the playing time a lot more than Boston so I like fading Robinson as he could find himself not in position to get enough time to score in relevant numbers.

Good luck, fam. Cheers!

Join me at https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292 and get a 25% bonus on your first Deposit!

9/21

(Get a 25% match when you deposit! https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292 )

Trust me when I say I got my butt kicked in Draftkings DFS yesterday. If my guys didn’t underperform (Henry, Allen Robinson) they got hurt, (Barkley, Campbell) and to pour salt in the wound, I swapped my Dak/Zeke/Lamb/Ridley/Gage with a Ryan/Julio/Ridley/Cooper and let’s just say… I lost out on 5 figures.

But the saving grace is I earned most of my entries back with my Prize Picks account! Fading the NE skill-players besides Edelman and Cam and going all-in on the SEA passing game minus the TE spot paid out handsomely.

As I have moved on from Sunday, so should you! It’s Monday Night Football time!

Normally it is super easy to pick both these teams.

Brees/Thomas/Kamara/Cook

Jacobs/Waller

However, with Thomas out and the Saints being one of the best teams at shutting down RB production, there is an added wrinkle. I like Kamara to be used in almost vintage style, to split out on occasion and the Saints to go short passes and screens and get creative. In Showdowns, I actually like Lat Murray to see more volume than usual. I really like Kamara and Cook to get more volume and redzone work. The lines on Brees and Sanders are really fair and I could argue a case to go either way. I also like Lutz to finish the game with 2 field goals and 3 extra points.

On the other side, full fade on Jacobs’ total; Saints just don’t give up big numbers to RBs. So that means Carr has to pass so I’m good with him and Waller going over. Ruggs has re-injury potential and Renfrow is only good for a big game a couple of times a year so they are safe unders for me as well, plus I like Edwards to be better than last week. I could easily see Carr’s productivity spread to 2-3 catches a piece for 8 different guys with only Waller seeing double-digit targets. As for Carlson, field goals will not be enough and I’m not seeing him hit that number so, again, a good under bet.

Good luck friends, and come join me!
– Jonny Danger

(Get a 25% match when you deposit! https://www.myprizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=0150292 )

Game Types

Pick 2 Players Flex Play pays .5x for 1 of 2 right and 2x for 2 of 2 right

Pick 2 Players Power Play pays 3x for 2 of 2 right

Pick 3 Players Flex Play pays 1.25x for 2 of 3 right and 2.25x for 3 of 3 right

Pick 3 Players Power Play pays 5x for 3 of 3 right

Pick 4 Players Flex Play pays 1.5x for 3 of 4 right and 5x for 4 of 4 right (my favorite)

Pick 4 Players Power Play pays 10x for 4 of 4 right

Scoring follows basic PPR fantasy scoring and can be looked at in detail on their site.

——————————-

I have won my first two games I locked in and have a pending entry in the US Open PGA contest and Thursday Night Football.

Check out my wins thus for!

For the PGA this course is a beast, and only one time in its history, in 1984, has any golfer finished the weekend under par. One time! Find out who isn’t a chance taker, someone who specializes in bogey avoidance and saving par and bet the over. Or look for those guys that are crazy inaccurate off the tee, are struggling with irons, or simply can’t putt to save their lives and bet the under.

Here are my picks for the US Open.

Thursday Night Football I feel like the Cleveland team will rebound and the Bengals may struggle to find their groove with Joe Burrow. So I am taking unders on the CIN passing game and overs on the Cleveland skills players.

Here are my picks for NFL Thursday Night.

Good Luck!