PGA Picks
Jonny Danger and his PGA picks.
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PGA Sanderson Farm Championship
Not the sexiest field but sometimes that is a good thing! Ownership can be nice and spread out and if you dig deep on lesser know players you can find yourself an edge.
Country Club of Jackson
Slightly raised greens with run-offs, but a fairly easy setup. Tighter off the tee than the average course so we like driving accuracy, strokes gained off the tee, approach, and par 5 scoring. I’m also looking at guys that have been hot in the last few weeks.
Running my models, a few guys pop up that may not be obvious, plus the top 5 picks it spits out.
#1 Sungjae Im
#2 Scottie Scheffler
#3 Luke List (just needs his putter to hit to line up perfectly with this course)
#4 Adam Schenk
#5 Will Zalatoris
#6 Cam Davis
#11 Bud Cauley (withdrawn)
#12 Corey Conners
#13 Keegan Bradley
#18 Sam Burns
#25 Sepp Straka (I like his 50/1 bet…)
Other guys I like that don’t necessarily pop on my model
Doc Redman
Dylan Frittelli
Cameron Tringale
Brian Stuard
Kyle Stanley
Taylor Gooch
Patton Kizzire
If you have any specific play recommendations please tweet me @TipsyPicksDFS
Cheers!
-Jonny Danger
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On to the second major of the PGA season, the US Open. Played at the most punishing bruising course in US Open history, Winged Foot in Mamaroneck, New York. At almost 5,000 yards and a nearly 600-yard hole in the mix, this course is long, the roughs are thicker than the scenery in a 70’s era French nudist beach, and the greens are not only impossibly complex but exceedingly fast. I would be shocked if the winning scores were below par. Just take a quick look at the winning scores here during an Open.
Winning Scores in the history of this event at Winged Foot:
2006 +5
1984 -4 (Won in a playoff. Every other player besides the top 2 were over par)
1974 +7
1959 +2
While length is important, accuracy will win the day this week. Look for distance but with accuracy off the tee. Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Shots Gained Around the Green and of course Ball striking are the stats I am looking at this week. I’m also looking for good form at similar courses and style of events. Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields, Shinnecock, and the recent PGA Championship are the courses I would cross reference to see how golfers fared in those fields.
Guys that hit all those Course Comparisons well:
Patrick Cantlay
Tony Finau
Dustin Johnson
Xander Schauffele
Patrick Reed
Hideki Matsuyama
Guys that mostly hit all those Course Comparisons well:
Ty Hatton
Brian Harmon
Matthew Wolff
Daniel Berger
Jordan Spieth
Phil Mickelson
Top 25 rank based on the stats I mentioned above, in order:
Daniel Berger
Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas
Webb Simpson
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Henrik Stenson
Harris English
Hideki Matsuyama
Chez Reavie
Patrick Cantlay
Corey Conners
Abraham Ancer
Rory McIlroy
Adam Scott
Tyrrell Hatton
Sergio Garcia
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sunjae Im
Tiger Woods
Paul Casey
Kevin Streelman
Adam Hadwin
Dustin Johnson
Tony Finau
Shane Lowry
Matthias Schwab
Patrick Reed
My Favorite Plays in order of salary:
Rahm
Xander
Morikawa
Simpson
Berger
Finau
Hideki
Reed
Hatton
English
Wolff
Oosthuizen
Kim
Reavie
Pieters
Palmer
Schwab
Dahmen
Harman
I think a lineup can hit in Cash Games with only 4/6 through the cut. I think the GPPs can be won by the same split if you can get 3 into the top 10 and pick the winner. I am advocating for a Stars and Scrubs approach this week.
Good Luck!
-Jonny Danger