NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 4
Last week I said I’d mostly be willing to let Jordan Mason beat me — and he did just that. I did work him into some builds, but not into my main lineups, where I preferred going down to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. What we saw with Mason, though, reinforces a theme we’ve talked about before. Last week with Tyler Allgeier, we noted that if he was going to have a big game, the Falcons defense almost certainly would too. The same logic could’ve applied here: with Mason thrust into the starting role alongside a backup QB, if he smashed, there was a very high likelihood the Vikings defense did as well. That classic RB/DEF pairing was sitting right there.
Now, you could have made the case both backup QBs would play similarly and Mason’s production could’ve come in a shootout, but even in that scenario the leverage would’ve leaned more to Justin Jefferson than Mason. Personally, I had several builds where I landed in the Vikings’ defensive price range and hovered over them, but without Mason in those lineups, they didn’t fit the correlation rules I was following — and I didn’t click.
Because I had Jacory Croskey-Merritt in some spots, I ran it back with Brock Bowers, who was low-owned for his talent. I also gave Tre Tucker a hard look in multiple lineups — and of course, Tucker along with the Vikings D turned out to be the week’s true difference-makers.
With Tre Tucker having the monster game that he did, this week sets up as a perfect leverage spot. If Tucker’s ownership rises after last week, that only makes Brock Bowers more attractive. Bowers was already too low-owned for his talent, and now he becomes a sharp pivot. Tucker does play that deep role in the Raiders’ offense and is capable of spike weeks, but it’s unlikely he delivers another explosion right away. That means Bowers offers us not only a ceiling in his own right, but also direct leverage against the Tucker ownership surge.
Our Stafford–Puka–Davante Adams–A.J. Brown stack played out exactly how we hoped. The Rams got out to a lead, setting up the game environment we wanted. While they didn’t hit Tre Tucker-level spike weeks, each of those players delivered solid production that made them worth rostering. Hopefully you were able to find the right complementary pieces around that core to turn it into a big day.
We also saw the Rams–Eagles game play out as the shootout we expected, while the Cowboys–Bears matchup fell flat just as we cautioned it might. CeeDee Lamb going down early certainly hurt that game environment, but even beyond that, the Cowboys looked like they were in full “Week 1 of the playoffs” mode — getting dismantled by a team most view as the weaker side.
We came into the week trying to prioritize three stud running backs. In practice, most of my builds ended up with two studs plus a value option — Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, and then either Jordan Mason or Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Taylor did his part. Bijan and the Falcons, on the other hand, were a total disappointment, getting shut out by the Panthers. And because we like to double down on correlation, that can swing both ways: when it goes right, it goes really right. But when it goes wrong, it goes really wrong — as we saw with Bijan and the Falcons’ defense.
One takeaway from that Panthers–Falcons game is how our player grids highlighted Bryce Young. He came in as the number one player in our tournament ratings — not because we expected Carolina to pitch a shutout, but because at his projected ownership, cost, and potential ceiling, he offered the best mix of value if things broke right. And this is exactly why we emphasize what could happen in the NFL. You never truly know the outcome, but when you sprinkle in those really low-owned plays that no one else is considering, they can swing tournaments and lead to huge paydays.
I also ended up with a lot of Kenneth Walker with Zach Charbonnet out. Pairing him with the Seattle defense worked out fine. Walker was probably the chalk of the day, so that wasn’t about gaining an edge as much as it was about keeping pace with the field. Sometimes you simply have to eat the chalk when a player is that heavily owned.
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET | Projected Totals: Vikings 21.5, Steelers 19.0
Ted’s Preview:
If you’re on the West Coast like me, you’re probably debating whether it’s even worth getting up at 6:30 to watch Carson Wentz vs. Aaron Rodgers. Honestly, the correct answer is probably no, even if I won’t be heeding my own advice. Both of these offenses have looked competent enough, but this game still has the second-lowest total of the entire weekend.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz didn’t have to do much in his Vikings debut, but he looked fine enough. Still, in a tougher matchup (if only because it’s hard to find a softer matchup), he’s a low-end QB2. That still lands him above Aaron Rodgers, who has scored fewer points over the last two weeks combined than he did in Week 1. Facing Brian Flores’ defense is not likely to bring another vintage performance from the 41-year-old.
Running Backs
With Aaron Jones still on IR, Jordan Mason is once again a borderline RB1. He isn’t much of a receiver, and Zavier Scott was involved last week (even before things got out of hand), but TD equity and volume on the ground boost his value. Jaylen Warren popped up on the Steelers’ injury report with a knee injury, putting his status for this one in question. If he goes, he’s been seeing good enough volume to still be a solid RB2. If he doesn’t, Kenneth Gainwell becomes a viable option … I still wouldn’t play Kaleb Johnson, who didn’t even record an offensive snap last week.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson’s range of outcomes is worse with questionable QB play (which it looks like the Vikings might have regardless of J.J. McCarthy’s health). But he’s still a locked-in WR1. In his return to the field, Jordan Addison is a boom-bust flex option. For the Steelers, DK Metcalf is a backend WR2 or high-end WR3, while Calvin Austin III runs enough routes to be a desperation flex option.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson showed signs of life last week, scoring nearly four times as many points as he did in the first two weeks combined. However, especially with Addison back, he’s only a borderline TE1. Jonnu Smith isn’t running a full complement of routes, leaving him firmly in the TE2 discussion.
DFS Thoughts:
I’m planning to largely avoid this game for DFS purposes. Both teams prefer to run the ball, both defenses are competent, and the total reflects a game that likely won’t produce the ceiling performances we’re chasing in tournaments. If I’m looking for one-off exposure, Justin Jefferson remains matchup-proof as a WR1, but even he carries some risk with Carson Wentz under center.
Pick’em Winner: Steelers
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Commanders 20.5, Falcons 23.0
Ted’s Preview:
Honestly, I’m surprised the Falcons’ offense is getting this much respect after they were shut out by the Panthers of all teams last week. Meanwhile, this is the second straight week without Jayden Daniels for the Commanders. Thankfully, Marcus Mariota looked good in Week 3, although he will be without Terry McLaurin this week.
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota provided a perfectly cromulent fantasy outing last week, thanks in large part to 10 points added with his legs (40 yards and a rushing score). That rushing ability keeps him in the high-end QB2 range for this week. Michael Penix Jr., meanwhile, has had back-to-back stinkers after a strong 2025 debut. He is more of a midrange or even backend QB2.
Running Backs
The Commanders’ backfield was an absolute mess without Austin Ekeler last week. I still think Jacory Croskey-Merritt, PFF’s highest-graded RB through three weeks, is the most startable option. But Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols will both also be involved. JCM is a risky flex play, while the other two are desperation options. Things are simpler in the Atlanta backfield, where Bijan Robinson is a certified stud and Tyler Allgeier is only playable in particularly deep formats.
Wide Receivers
With McLaurin and Noah Brown both out, the Commanders’ top WRs in this one will be Deebo Samuel and … probably Jaylin Lane. The fourth-round rookie has mostly played from the slot so far this season, but he has played outside enough to give us hope he can be the every-down WR2 alongside Samuel. He’s still only a dart throw flex option, however, while Deebo is a solid WR2. For Atlanta, both Drake London and Darnell Mooney (after missing Week 1 with a shoulder injury) have been disappointing despite decent usage. London is still near the border of WR1 conversations, while Mooney is more of a WR3/flex option.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz’s usage has been excellent (by 34-year-old TE standards) so far this season, and it should only improve with McLaurin sidelined. He is a solid backend TE1 even with Mariota under center. Kyle Pitts, meanwhile, has seen shockingly good usage but joins the Falcons’ other passcatchers in having mediocre results. He’s also a backend TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
The Commanders have some injury concerns at wide receiver, while the Falcons are coming off a blowout loss. There’s a chance Atlanta bounces back defensively — more in line with how they looked against Minnesota — and that could also set up a better game flow for Bijan Robinson. Personally, I’m more likely to stay away from this game altogether. But if I do want exposure, I can go back to our Deebo Samuel theory: when injuries hit, he’s the kind of player who soaks up extra work and could benefit in this spot.
Jayden Daniels is out again, so Marcus Mariota will draw the start. We played Mariota last week when he came at a low price. His salary has likely risen now, but I’ll check to see if he still stands out as a value option across the sites.
Pick’em Winner: Falcons
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Saints 16.25, Bills 31.75
Ted’s Preview:
This is one of the most lopsided projected games I’ve seen. The Bills have by far the highest total on the slate, while the Saints avoid being the lowest projected team thanks to just 0.25 points and the lowly Titans. The spread for this one is 15.5, over two touchdowns. In theory, there should be points to go around on the Buffalo side and garbage time targets to go around for New Orleans, but it’s genuinely hard to predict how a game this theoretically lopsided will play out.
Quarterbacks
You don’t need me to tell you that Spencer Rattler is essentially unplayable and Josh Allen is a must-start. I’m almost tempted to say that Rattler can provide QB2 value on volume alone, but he has had plenty of volume so far this season and only had one usable fantasy week.
Running Backs
As long as he doesn’t get pulled early, Alvin Kamara should rack up enough checkdowns to provide backend RB2 numbers in any PPR format. James Cook, meanwhile, is a smash start. The only potential issue is that he might get pulled by halftime for Ray Davis, who is arguably a deep-league flex play in his own right.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave leads the entire league in targets through three weeks. With the Saints playing fast and doomed to lose big, he should see plenty more weeks on Sunday, making him a borderline WR2. No other Saints WR is worth playing. On the Bills’ side, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel are all worth considering, in that order. None of them sees great usage, but the sheer amount of points Buffalo should score makes them each high-upside flex plays.
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson has seen unimpeachable usage so far this season; until that changes, he’s a TE1. Dalton Kincaid, meanwhile, is seeing the same lowkey terrible usage as last year (57% route participation rate, 16% target share), but has been running hot on touchdowns. That could certainly continue this week, so he’s a borderline TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
Game script should force New Orleans into catch-up mode. That makes Chris Olave a strong target, with the potential for heavy volume. I’ll also watch how Buffalo defends him to see if Rashid Shaheed becomes worth a dart throw, but the safer bet is Olave piling up targets. The Bills are heavy favorites over the Saints, and I don’t see any way the Saints make the game competitive. I could throw a lottery pick on someone like Alvin Kamara, who might be able to run against the Bills, and they will be behind. The problem isn’t passing volume for Kamara, but if Rattler can put together a decent game and actually connect with Kamara for volume, he could be a play this week. But it may be one I don’t really need to go to. I’ll see what I think of the rest of the slate and how the ownership works. This is also a game where Josh Allen shouldn’t need to be as dominant as he can be, which makes it less appealing for me to pay all the way up for him this week.
Pick’em Winner: Bills
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Browns 17.25, Lions 27.25
Ted’s Preview:
Coming into the season, the hope was that the Browns, with Joe Flacco under center, would be an excellent fantasy team, losing games by big amounts but chucking it around along the way. Instead, their offense has sputtered, but their defense has been dominant. Clearly, Vegas isn’t scared of Cleveland’s defense against the Lions back in the friendly confines of Ford Field … but I am, just a little.
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco has not been able to recapture that 2023 magic this season, averaging under 10 fantasy points per game. He’s not playable unless you have no other options in a 2-QB format. Jared Goff, meanwhile, is back in his dome sweet dome. Especially given that Cleveland has been more susceptible to passing than rushing, I like his chances to provide at least backend QB1 numbers.
Running Backs
Cleveland’s backfield officially belongs to Quinshon Judkins. The second-round rookie has looked good so far, and he saw 18 of the team’s 19 carries last week. He’s a borderline RB2 despite the tough matchup. Jahmyr Gibbs is a must-start. And, although it burned me last week, I’m still a bit worried about David Montgomery. Elite TD equity makes him still a viable RB3/flex play, but do we really think he can succeed where Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs failed against this Browns defense?
Wide Receivers
With Flacco’s disappointing performances comes disappointing fantasy numbers for his weapons. The WR1 debate between Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman is a lot less interesting when they are both just flex options regardless (for what it’s worth, Jeudy seems to be reasserting himself as the top option). For Detroit, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a must-start. Jameson Williams is not, but he’s certainly a more exciting play at home in a game where the Lions are projected to score plenty of points. Still, his low volume so far makes him a boom/bust WR3, albeit a luxury one.
Tight Ends
The Browns are still the only team with two tight ends really worth mentioning, but neither David Njoku or Harold Fannin Jr. (in that order) is more than a high-end TE2. Sam LaPorta’s usage is mediocre, but his offense is excellent, keeping him in the TE1 ranks.
DFS Thoughts:
The Lions and Browns set up for a tough, low-scoring game. Cleveland is the team that beat the Packers, but also the team that surrendered a big second-half total to the Ravens. Overall, it looks like their defense is legitimate, and we’ve already seen the Lions disappoint in this kind of spot before. Coming off their big win over Baltimore, I’m leaning toward this one being slower-paced and not very DFS-friendly. There is some argument that the pace could give more passing work than usual, but in practice, it’s still tough to trust. More likely, this is a game I don’t need to target heavily.
Pick’em Winner: Lions
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Titans 16.00, Texans 23.00
Ted’s Preview:
These are two of the saddest teams in the league right now. At least the Titans have the hope that Cam Ward will improve as his rookie season continues. Texans’ fans are just hoping that C.J. Stroud ever plays as well as he did as a rookie again. With that said, the Texans’ defense is much scarier than the Titans’, so there’s more hope on the Houston side of this one.
Quarterbacks
Cam Ward has shown some flashes, but he’s yet to have a quality fantasy outing. He’s arguably the least appealing starting QB for fantasy this week. Meanwhile, I’m not even sure that C.J. Stroud is a guaranteed QB2 at this point.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard hasn’t gotten much at all going this year despite excellent usage. Especially given the tough matchups, he’s a borderline RB2. Still, that’s better than can be said for any Texans RB. Woody Marks has steadily climbed Houston’s depth chart, but he (at least as of last week) is still the 1B/passing-down back to Joe Mixon’s 1A/load carrier. Mixon is an RB3, while the rookie is just a desperation flex play.
Wide Receivers
It’s hard to get excited about either Calvin Ridley or DeAndre Hopkins in this brutal matchup. Although Hopkins has had more fantasy success, Ridley’s usage has been better — the veteran is a flex, and the veteran is a dart throw. Nico Collins’ results are honestly better than they “should” be thanks to a couple of big plays. But he’s still a must-start WR1 given his elite talent and lack of competition. He did hardly anything with them, but Christian Kirk did see eight targets in his 2025 debut last week. He’s at least worth considering as a flex play in deep PPR leagues.
Tight Ends
Outside of the top-tier guys, a lot of TE fantasy production is determined by team offensive success. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Chigoziem Okonkwo and Dalton Schultz are both TE2s despite okay usage so far this season.
DFS Thoughts:
The Titans–Texans matchup looks a lot like two mediocre teams that could easily go back and forth and turn into a sneaky shootout. Both teams are mediocre at best, but that sometimes creates the perfect DFS environment: back-and-forth play where neither side pulls away, and the game total sneaks higher than expected. In that scenario, I could see Tennessee pushing to get Cam Ward going, leaning into Calvin Ridley’s speed for big chunk plays. On the Houston side, Nico Collins always has slate-breaking upside, and with Christian Kirk back, he could also pop for a big performance at low ownership. We also Brian Callahan give away play calling duties so we could see some changes and some spark this week for the Titans.
If I rolled out a Kirk—Ward—Ridley lineup this week, I might be the only person in the DFS world doing it. And that’s the point — I’m not playing for min-cashes. I’m building to win first place, and targeting games like this is exactly how I get there.
Pick’em Winner: Titans
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Panthers 18.75, Patriots 24.25
Ted’s Preview:
Once again, I’m surprised how much Vegas is willing to essentially ignore last week’s performance by Carolina. To be fair, the Panthers were thoroughly uninspiring on both sides of the ball in Weeks 1 and 2. With that said, the Patriots haven’t been that much better. This is likely to be an ugly game on both sides … maybe it will at least be fun ugly.
Quarterbacks
Even in the Panthers’ big win last week, Bryce Young failed to deliver a quality fantasy outing. He’s only a borderline QB2 despite having the Patriots’ defense being a relatively beatable unit. Drake Maye, on the other hand, seems poised to take advantage of his own good matchup, coming off back-to-back solid weeks. He’s a genuine QB1.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard technically lost work to Rico Dowdle last week, but I don’t expect that to continue in a more normal game (aka one where the Panthers are losing). He’s a backend RB2 based on pure volume. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ backfield is a mess. Mike Vrabel said they don’t plan to bench Rhamondre Stevenson for his continued fumbling problems … but can we trust him? Fantasy managers are frothing at the mouth for a breakout from TreVeyon Henderson, who saw increased work last week after both Stevenson and Antonio Gibson lost fumbles. Given Vrabel’s quotes, I still lean toward Rhamondre as the best option in this backfield. He is an RB3, while Henderson is a boom/bust flex play.
Wide Receivers
Tetairoa McMillan is already the Panthers’ clear alpha. He’s also the only Carolina receiver who is worth playing, as a WR2. In fact, he might be the only receiver worth playing in this whole game. Through three weeks, Demario Douglas leads the Patriots with just five targets per game … and he’s barely above a 50% route participation rate. Boutte is the only Patriot WR running anywhere close to a full share of routes (72%). They are both just desperation flex options.
Tight Ends
With Ja’Tavion Sanders sidelined, Tommy Tremble is at least on the radar in 2-TE leagues, but that’s about it. Coming off a massive game and easily leading New England in targets, Hunter Henry is a backend TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
Both the Patriots and Panthers are in bounce-back territory — not that they’ll suddenly improve, but rather regress toward what they’ve shown most of the season. For Carolina, that likely means they won’t be able to run as well against New England. For the Patriots, it probably means they won’t fumble the game away again.
That points me toward TreVeyon Henderson, who looks poised to earn more work. I’m always playing for what could happen, not just what everyone already expects. If I’m taking that approach, it also makes sense to lean into the Panthers’ passing game. Tetairoa McMillan is getting the volume; he just needs more playable snaps and a serviceable Bryce Young to unlock him.
Outside of that, there’s not much to like here. I could go back to Hunter Henry, but I’d rather focus on a Henderson—McMillan mini stack if I’m targeting this game.
Pick’em Winner: Patriots
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Chargers 25.0, Giants 18.5
Ted’s Preview:
Although they slowed down a little, the Chargers’ offense still ranked well above expectation in pass rate in Week 3. Justin Herbert is dealing, and LA is one of the more exciting fantasy offenses every single week. They also get a soft matchup this week against the Giants, who are officially entering the Jaxson Dart era … for better or worse.
Quarterbacks
With elite volume and efficiency, Justin Herbert is a QB1 until proven otherwise. Jaxson Dart does have the potential to bring some dual-threat upside, but he’s nothing more than a risky QB2 in his first NFL start.
Running Backs
With Najee unfortunately done for the season, the Chargers’ backfield belongs to Omarion Hampton. He’s a borderline RB1 given this excellent matchup in his first week as a likely bell-cow. The Giants also have a rookie running back stepping into bell-cow status due to injury, as it is Cam Skattebo’s time to shine with Tyrone Tracy Jr. ruled out. Skattebo’s situation is far less appealing than Hampton’s, but he’s still a solid RB2.
Wide Receivers
The debate of the week is how to rank the Chargers’ WR trio of Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey. Personally, I’m giving McConkey the benefit of the doubt for one more week, followed by Johnston and then Allen. But all three are either low-end WR2s or high-end WR3s this week. Malik Nabers’ value is slightly lowered until we see what Dart looks like, but he’s still an obvious must-start. Wan’Dale Robinson’s situation is trickier, as he was really benefitting from Russell Wilson being the first quarterback willing to target him deep; he’s a flex option.
Tight Ends
Oronde Gadsden II had a very impressive NFL debut last week, catching five of seven targets for 46 yards. With Will Dissly out again, he’s at least on the fantasy radar … but he’s not really startable yet. The same goes for Theo Johnson, who simply isn’t involved enough in New York’s offense to consider.
DFS Thoughts:
The Chargers–Giants matchup is an interesting one. The easiest way to attack New York is through the air, and that fits the Chargers’ pass-heavy approach. With Jaxson Dart starting for the Giants, the Chargers’ defense is firmly in play. Normally I’d like to pair that with Omarion Hampton for correlation, but if this game tilts toward passing volume instead of rushing, that combo may not be the sharpest angle.
One outcome is a Chargers offensive explosion through the passing game alongside a defensive shutdown. In that case, a Herbert + pass catcher + defense stack is absolutely viable. Another angle is to treat Hampton as an extension of the running game — if he gets work in the passing game through screens and open-field touches, he can still be a strong play even in a pass-first script.
Pick’em Winner: Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Eagles 24.0, Buccaneers 20.5
Ted’s Preview:
The Eagles’ offense finally came to life in the second half of last week’s game against the Rams. Will they keep that momentum going this week, or will they return to Tush Pushing their way to ugly wins? Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are dealing with injuries at WR and across the offensive line. That’s not a great place to be against Philadelphia’s excellent defense.
Quarterbacks
If the Eagles play ugly, Jalen Hurts will probably score a Tush Push TD or two. If they actually throw the ball, that helps him too. Either way, he’s an elite QB1. There are more question marks for Baker Mayfield, who is running out of targets. Especially with his increased rushing (at least 33 yards in every game so far this season), he could certainly get it done regardless. But the tough matchup makes him more of a borderline QB1 than anything else.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley hasn’t looked like his 2024 self so far this season … but he’s still a no-brainer RB1. Meanwhile, Bucky Irving is seeing absolutely elite usage, and is seemingly due for a massive game. It might happen this week against Philly, but he’s still at least a backend RB1. Rachaad White is only a flex play if you’re desperate.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown was the engine of Philadelphia’s offensive revival last week. He’s still definitely capable of disappearing for quarters at a time, but talent and upside make him a must-start. In many ways, DeVonta Smith is a mini version of his teammate, with explosive potential but a very low floor. He’s more of a boom/bust WR3. I’ve been skeptical of the Mike Evans hype train, but he’s a must-start now as the only starting WR left standing for Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin should serve as the WR2 alongside him, and he is at least worth considering as a deep-league flex option.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert had a solid fantasy day in his return to the field last week, but he did see only two targets. He’s a TE2, albeit a high-upside one. Even with all of the Buccaneers’ injuries, Cade Otton is a more of a backend TE2.
DFS Thoughts:
The Buccaneers are still dealing with injuries, and the Eagles haven’t been playing dominant football. This looks more like a lower-scoring game where Philadelphia runs as few plays as possible and just gets out with a win. That makes it a spot I’m mostly staying away from.
If everyone were healthy, there might be back-and-forth shootout potential, but as things stand, it’s thin. I could take a deeper look at Sterling Shepard — especially if Chris Godwin plays but isn’t at full volume, and with Mike Evans still a bit banged up. Emeka Egbuka or even Bucky Irving could also be dart throws. But for me, the only real one-off worth considering is A.J. Brown, and even then, I don’t think I’ll get there this week.
Pick’em Winner: Eagles
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Colts 23.0, Rams 26.5
Ted’s Preview:
At this point, we just have to accept that Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts are for real. Meanwhile, the Rams nearly took down the defending Super Bowl champs last week. This has the potential to be an excellent game, both for real-life enjoyment and fantasy production.
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones is in the perfect situation for his skill set, and he’s thriving. The Rams’ defense is arguably the toughest test he’s faced so far, but he’s still a backend QB1. Matthew Stafford is also playing excellently, but he lacks the mobility that Danny Dimes brings. He’s solidly a mid-range QB2.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor is arguably the RB1 at this point. He’s seeing bell-cow usage and playing well on a suddenly excellent offense. Kyren Williams has at least two of those same things going for him, so he’s also a must-start, even if he’s more of a borderline RB1 than a true stud.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman Jr. doesn’t get enough respect. He’s always been an excellent target-earner (the most important ability for fantasy production), and now he’s the clear WR1 in the Colts’ surging offense. Although I can’t quite justify ranking him as a legit WR2, he’s at least a solid WR3. Behind him, the big question is who will take Alec Pierce’s snaps (he is out with a concussion). Some managers will hope for Josh Downs, but I fear he will stay in his 11-personnel-only role and watch Adonai Mitchell take over for Pierce. They are both risky flex options. Puka Nacua is the best fantasy receiver in the league, and it might not even be close. Davante Adams, assuming he is good to go with his hamstring injury, is also a must-start as a WR2.
Tight Ends
Tyler Warren has already established himself as an elite, must-start fantasy TE. He leads the Colts with a 24% target share, the third-best at the position. Meanwhile, no Rams TE has a target share above even 6% (Tyler Higbee) — obviously, they aren’t playable.
DFS Thoughts:
In contrast to those other “mediocre shootout” spots, Colts–Rams feels like a game where both teams will try to slow things down, control the clock, and lean on the run. The Rams should have more success on the ground, and if they can get out to an early lead, it could push the Colts into one of their worst performances of the season. If I want to stick with correlation, a Kyren Williams + Rams defense pairing makes sense — but personally, I’ll be staying away, expecting a lower-scoring, evenly played game. The one exception would be if I wanted to take a contrarian game-stack shot: something like Kyren Williams on one side, paired with Daniel Jones and Tyler Warren on the other, hoping to finally catch Warren’s breakout.
For the Colts, with Alec Pierce out, Adonai Mitchell should see more involvement — and he comes at a very affordable price. I don’t necessarily have to run it back on the other side if he fits as a one-off, but if I do want correlation, Davante Adams is interesting. He’s carrying a questionable tag, which could help keep his ownership in check.
Pick’em Winner: Rams
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Jaguars 21.75, 49ers 24.75
Ted’s Preview:
Unfortunately for Twitter hot-take artists, we won’t get the “Is Mac Jones Actually Better Than Trevor Lawrence? Bowl,” as Brock Purdy will be back for the 49ers’ this week. San Francisco is still dealing with plenty of injuries on both sides of the ball, however. Maybe that will help provide a bounce-back spot for a Jacksonville team that desperately needs one.
Quarterbacks
With his top TE out and his top two receivers questionable (not even to mention Brandon Aiyuk), Brock Purdy is only a borderline QB1 in his first game back. If both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall suit up, starting him will become much more comfortable. Meanwhile, relying on Trevor Lawrence is anything but comfortable. The former first-overall pick’s struggles aren’t all his fault, but he certainly isn’t blameless. He’s a QB2, if not a backend one.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey is the only reason I couldn’t confidently call Taylor the RB1 overall in the previous section. He ranks fifth in the entire league in targets to go with solid usage on the ground. You don’t need me to tell you to start him. Meanwhile, Tank Bigsby is holding strong against rookie Mac Jones, maintaining solid usage both on the ground and through the air. He’s a borderline RB2, while his younger counterpart is just a flex play.
Wide Receivers
This game is full of WR injuries on both sides. If only one of Jauan Jennings (questionable, shoulder/ankle) or Ricky Pearsall (questionable, knee) is active, that player is a must-start WR2. If they both play, they are both WR3 options. If neither plays, Kendrick Bourne suddenly becomes a viable streamer. As much as it pains me to say this, Travis Hunter isn’t being used enough on the offensive end to be more than a dart-throw flex play. Brian Thomas Jr.’s usage means he should really still be started as a WR2, despite his apparent case of the yips. If Dyami Brown (questionable, shoulder) is out, Parker Washington might have some appeal as a flex option.
Tight Ends
If both WRs are out, Jake Tonges suddenly looks like a viable TE2. Brenton Strange, who leads the Jaguars in receptions this year, is already a viable TE2.
DFS Thoughts:
Pick’em Winner: 49ers
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Ravens 25.5, Chiefs 23.0
Ted’s Preview:
There was a time when this game would have been must-watch TV, an inevitable shootout between two elite quarterbacks. Both of these quarterbacks are still elite, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have an incredible ability to turn theoretically exciting matchups into ugly slog-fests. Maybe the return of Xavier Worthy will change things?
Quarterbacks
This is a bad matchup for Lamar Jackson. As a result (and because Josh Allen has an excellent matchup), I’ve considered moving him out of the QB1 overall spot in my weekly rankings for the first time all season … I still haven’t decided. Meanwhile, the one bonus of the Chiefs’ offensive ineptitude is that Patrick Mahomes is rushing more. That secures his spot as a QB1 option, especially with Worthy back.
Running Backs
It hasn’t been pretty so far this season for Derrick Henry, who has three fumbles on the year and just 73 rushing yards over his last two outings. But his big-play ability and nose for the end zone make him a must-start regardless. Speaking of not pretty backfields, the Chiefs’ backfield duo of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt is probably the worst in the league. Last week confirmed my suspicion that Hunt is the preferred goal-line back. With that in mind, I actually prefer him, although they are both uninspiring flex options.
Wide Receivers
The Zay Flowers ascension season took a step backward last week, as he caught just two of three targets for 13 yards. But he’s still Baltimore’s clear top target and a must-start fantasy option — a borderline WR1. After him, Rashod Bateman (who had a nice game last week) is the top Baltimore WR, viable as a TD-dependent flex play. The rest of the Ravens’ receivers do benefit from playing with Lamar, but not enough to be more than pure desperation punt plays. On the Chiefs’ side, the return of Xavier Worthy throws a wrench into my plans to be all in on Tyquan Thornton this week. Will Worthy be more than a decoy three weeks after dislocating his shoulder? If he does play a full role, will his routes come at the expense of Thornton, Hollywood Brown, or JuJu Smith-Schuster? The safest thing to do is wait a week and see how things shake out, but Worthy is a risky flex play while Thornton and Brown are boom/bust deep-league options.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce are always in play, even in tough matchups. Both have been somewhat disappointing relative to expectations, but they still offer elite target shares in good offenses. Andrews might be the slightly better play given the potential for Baltimore to be playing from behind.
DFS Thoughts:
In Ravens–Chiefs, I’m looking for Derrick Henry to bounce back — maybe even angry King Henry after his recent fumble issues. Kansas City’s run defense is solid but not impenetrable, and the Ravens are fully capable of putting up points. If the Chiefs can keep pace, this game has real shootout potential.
One tournament angle I’m considering is Tyquan Thornton, who plays a Tre Tucker–type role in this offense. He might end up with two targets for zero yards, or two targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns. He’s actually been getting decent target volume, and if Xavier Worthy sits, Thornton could see even more involvement.
Because Mahomes tends to spread the ball around, I’m less interested in full Chiefs stacks. Instead, I prefer mini-stacks — like Henry with Thornton — or even an unconventional full game stack of Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Thornton. It’s not out of the question for Baltimore to score four rushing TDs (two from Henry, two from Lamar), and if Lamar also adds efficient passing on top, that’s a high-upside, albeit expensive, path to the top of a tournament.
Pick’em Winner: Ravens
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bears 23.25, Raiders 25.25
Ted’s Preview:
It’s unclear to me what the Raiders have done to deserve being the favorites in this one. Their defense is terrible, and a struggling O-line is hurting their offense. To be fair, the Bears haven’t exactly been killing it on either side of the ball, either. With that said, I would argue both of these teams are better offensively than they are defensively — could we be in for a sneaky shootout?
Quarterbacks
It hasn’t always looked pretty, but Caleb Williams is the fantasy QB3 three weeks into the season. In another great matchup, he’s a solid QB1. Meanwhile, the Bears’ defense has been torn apart by opposing passers. This matchup allows Geno Smith to push for high-end QB2 status.
Running Backs
He’s questionable with a hip injury, but D’Andre Swift is a borderline RB2 if he is active. If he’s out, rookie Roschon Johnson becomes an intriguing streaming option. For the Raiders, Ashton Jeanty is passing the eye test with the ball in his hands, but seeing limited usage behind the aforementioned bad O-line. He’s also an RB2, with an electric ceiling but a surprisingly low floor.
Wide Receivers
Rome Odunze has cemented himself as Chicago’s top target and a borderline WR1. But that doesn’t spell doom for DJ Moore, who is a WR3 in his own right. Luther Burden III had the first big game of his career last week, but he’s still not involved enough to be a viable fantasy option. For the Raiders, everyone is talking about Tre “Three TDs” Tucker. Last week showed his ceiling, but we also know he has a nonexistent floor. He’s a boom/bust flex, and I’d still rather play Jakobi Meyers, who is a legit WR2 in this excellent matchup.
Tight Ends
If Colston Loveland (questionable, hip) is out, Cole Kmet has some appeal as a TE2. Otherwise, the only TE to play in this one is Brock Bowers, who is still an elite option despite his slow start.
DFS Thoughts:
The Bears–Raiders matchup looks a lot like Titans–Texans: two mediocre teams that could easily go back and forth and turn into a sneaky shootout. The public is getting sharper about not chasing points, so Tre Tucker’s ownership may not spike too much. If it does, though, this is a nice week to pivot back and take a chance on D’onte Thornton. The Bears’ defense should allow the Raiders to move the ball between the 20s and then tighten in the red zone — which could create more opportunities for a receiver like Thornton, while Tucker remains the high-variance deep threat.
On the Bears’ side, I don’t love it, but going back to Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams is viable, especially if I’m playing the shootout angle. I could even toss Cole Kmet into the mix this week. I’m not looking to force a full game stack here, but it’s definitely feasible in tournaments if I want to lean into that back-and-forth script.
Pick’em Winner: Bears
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Cowboys 20.25, Packers 26.75
Ted’s Preview:
This primetime matchup is, of course, being billed as the Micah Parsons revenge game. But it’s also a bounce-back game for the Packers as a whole, as they were embarrassed by Cleveland in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are looking like last year’s Bengals — terrible on defense but good enough on offense to provide some excellent fantasy games. The question will be whether they can keep that up without CeeDee Lamb against this Green Bay defense.
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love’s fantasy results so far this year have been uninspiring, but this is a great matchup. He’s a playable backend QB1, especially if you believe Dallas’ offense can keep things interesting. Speaking of Dallas’ offense, Dak Prescott is a lot less appealing without his top target and in a tough matchup. He’s just a QB2.
Running Backs
If the Cowboys are the new Bengals, Javonte Williams is the new Chase Brown. He’s not an elite talent, but his combination of situation and usage is enough to make him a weekly starter. With that said, he’s just an RB2 this week — the Packers’ defense is good. Josh Jacobs got nothing going on the ground last week but salvaged an okay fantasy day with plenty of targets. That versatility is nice to see, and he should find easier sledding against Dallas’ defense. He’s a solid RB1.
Wide Receivers
George Pickens is a must-start WR2 with Lamb sidelined. After him, I’ve seen some hype this week for KaVontae Turpin, who is an exciting playmaker. But it was actually Jalen Tolbert who served as the every-down WR2 after Lamb exited last week’s game. They are both just flex options, but I lean toward Tolbert if you have to choose. Even with Jayden Reed on IR, it’s hard to pin down the Packers’ WR group. Romeo Doubs seems cosmically destined to lead them in routes, but he’s not exactly an exciting fantasy option. First-round rookie Matthew Golden is, but he still has just six career catches for 68 scoreless yards. And I have a soft spot for Dontayvion “Target Per Route Run” Wicks, but he was third in this trio with a mediocre route participation rate against the Browns. They’re all flex plays thanks to this matchup, with Doubs having the safest floor, Golden the highest ceiling, and Wicks the highest swag factor (or idiot factor if you start him and he scores zero).
Tight Ends
In a huge win for mid-round TE drafters, Jake Ferguson and Tucker Kraft have both emerged as weekly TE1s. Ferguson ranks tied for fifth in the league in targets, while Kraft leads Green Bay in targets and receiving yards despite having dealt with an injury. They also both benefit from Lamb and Reed, respectively, being out.
DFS Thoughts:
Pick’em Winner: Packers
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Jets 21.25, Dolphins 23.75
Ted’s Preview:
It feels as though the NFL has decided that, because there are two of them, Monday Night Football games don’t actually have to be good matchups anymore. That’s the only explanation I can think of for this ugly AFC East duel that we will start the night with. Justin Fields is back under center for the Jets (is that even a good thing?). Meanwhile, the Dolphins are still looking for their first win, but they have at least have earned more self-respect with performances in each of the last two weeks.
Quarterbacks
In Week 1, we saw the good side of Justin Fields, as he threw one touchdown and rushed for two more en route to a near-30-point finish. In Week 2, we saw the bad side, as he completed three passes in over three quarters of action before exiting early with a concussion. That concussion caused him to miss last week, but now he is back for a juicy matchup with Miami’s awful defense. Even considering the matchup, it’s hard to have Fields as more than a QB2 now that he’s reminded us of his nonexistent floor. Tua Tagovailoa is also a QB2, but a lower-end one. He has a pretty low floor of his own and nowhere near Fields’ ceiling.
Running Backs
As a longtime Breece Hall doubter, I feel vindicated by his back-to-back duds after the preemptive victory-lapping following his big Week 1. But, especially in this good matchup, he’s still a solid RB2 this week. De’Von Achane, meanwhile, is a locked-in RB1. It’s a little concerning that he saw Ollie Gordon II steal a goal-line TD (and nine of 21 carries) last week, but his receiving workload still makes him a stud in all PPR formats. Gordon, meanwhile, is just a TD-dependent dart throw flex play.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson has a 35% target share and a 49% air yards share in this offense. The great matchup helps to cancel out the Fields effect, leaving him as a borderline WR1. Rookie Arian Smith was the Jets’ WR2 with Josh Reynolds back, but the veteran is likely to return this week. Neither of them is on the fantasy radar until we know the pecking order for sure … and maybe not even then. Tyreek Hill certainly isn’t fully back, but he’s seeing good usage and producing solid numbers — he’s a WR2. It’s much the same story with Jaylen Waddle. Given that his highs were never quite as high as Tyreek’s (and his lows were lower), he’s more of a WR3/flex option.
Tight Ends
EEven if Darren Waller returns, there isn’t a fantasy-viable TE in this matchup. Mason Taylor’s usage so far is encouraging for a rookie tight end, but that’s a low bar (he has six catches or 43 yards in three games).
DFS Thoughts:
Pick’em Winner: Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bengals 18.25, Broncos 25.75
Ted’s Preview:
Apparently, Joe Burrow was important to this Bengals offense (although they weren’t exactly firing on all cylinders with him). Combined with an already terrible defense, Cincinnati with Jake Browning under center is arguably the worst team in the league. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 1-2, with their only win coming against the actual worst team in the league (sorry, Titans). Bo Nix seems to have regressed in his sophomore season — maybe this is his chance to bounce back.
Quarterbacks
As mentioned, Jake Browning struggled massively in his first start last week. Elite weapons and a great team situation keep him at least in the QB2 conversation … but this bad matchup pushes him back out of it, at least for this week. Bo Nix, meanwhile, has not performed up to expectations so far. But this is a dream matchup at home in Denver, and he still has rushing upside — he’s a backend QB1.
Running Backs
Chase Brown (with plenty of help from Cincinnati’s O-line) is attempting to disprove the theory that any bell-cow running back is a startable fantasy option. He’s fallen to the “Tony Pollard Zone,” where he’s still seeing enough volume that I have to call him an RB2, but he’s likely to provide disappointing results unless he finds his way into the end zone. For Denver, J.K. Dobbins is still the clear RB1 and had a solid outing last week. He’s a solid RB2 in this excellent matchup, while competitive RJ Harvey is a dart throw flex play at best.
Wide Receivers
If you’ve got Ja’Marr Chase, you’ve got to start him. However, I don’t think the same applies to Tee Higgins — until we see more from Browning, he’s a boom/bust WR3 or even flex play. After posting a weirdly low 59% route participation rate in Week 2, Courtland Sutton bounced back in a huge way in Week 3. Given the matchup, he’s a high-end WR2. Even with Sutton bouncing back, Troy Franklin maintained his own high route share in this offense — the second-year WR is a flex option.
Tight Ends
Across these two teams, Mike Gesicki leads all TEs in both route participation rate and targets … at 46% and 10. There’s no viable fantasy options here.
DFS Thoughts:
Pick’em Winner: Broncos
Lineup Building
What I’m wanting coming into this week is to target the Ravens and Chiefs as my primary game. I’m planning to start with Lamar Jackson on DraftKings and Derrick Henry on FanDuel, then build toward the Mahomes side of things. I’m wanting to add Tyquan Thornton on both sides as a low-owned piece with ceiling potential. I also want to get TreVeyon Henderson on both lineups as an early breakout candidate, and I’m interested in fitting Alvin Kamara as well given his potential target volume in negative game script.
If I find myself needing salary relief and have to go cheaper at running back, I’m planning to pivot to Omarion Hampton — but only if I pair him with the Chargers defense for correlation. I think that game sets up better for the Chargers’ passing attack anyway, so I might play the Chargers defense regardless, even without Hampton.
Ownership and Pricing Review
Moving into the ownership analysis, my strategy may shift based on how the field is approaching this slate.
At quarterback on FanDuel, I’m seeing good distribution across the top options, with most QBs projecting in the 10-15% range. Josh Allen leads in the highest-projected game, while Brock Purdy and Marcus Mariota are drawing attention as cheap options at $6,600 each. Geno Smith is coming in higher than I expected, Justin Herbert looks solid, and Lamar Jackson sits in the top five or six — exactly where I want him for tournament leverage.
The pricing comparison is telling: Purdy and Mariota at $6,600 versus Jaxson Dart at $6,300 explains the ownership gap. That small difference makes the former two look like better relative values. On the low end, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Jared Goff, and Joe Flacco offer contrarian options, with Goff particularly interesting at near-zero ownership despite Cleveland’s tendency to be vulnerable through the air.
At running back, Christian McCaffrey is projecting around 25% ownership despite his elevated price — completely worth it, but I’m looking for leverage elsewhere. The rookie backs are drawing heavy attention: Ashton Jeanty around 20%, Omarion Hampton around 20%, and Cam Skattebo around 20%. Those numbers feel high given their prices and matchups. Hampton at $7,000 and Skattebo at $5,400 represent different value propositions, but both face tough run defenses.
Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook both come in around 15% — solid options but not sneaky. Kyren Williams stands out as the first player offering real leverage, making him an intriguing pivot, especially in a potential bring-back with Adonai Mitchell.
This leads me to my core strategy insight: Derrick Henry on FanDuel. While he’s projecting under 10% ownership, he’s only $2,000 more than Hampton. I’d rather bet on Henry outscoring Hampton by six points at low ownership — a bet I’ll make every time.
Other leverage backs include Quinshon Judkins at around 5%, Alvin Kamara in low single digits, and TreVeyon Henderson at near 1% ownership. If that Henderson number holds, he becomes an excellent tournament dart.
Wide receiver ownership reveals some clear patterns. Jakobi Meyers is drawing chalk attention despite Tre Tucker’s monster Week 3, with the field apparently not wanting to chase points. But game script favors Tucker again, making him the better play at much lower ownership. Puka Nacua and Rome Odunze lead the expensive tier, while Deebo Samuel hits around 15% — not surprising given the injury situation around him.
Tetairoa McMillan surprises me with high ownership, possibly due to Carolina’s shutout win or his $5,800 price. This creates a perfect correlation opportunity: if I’m playing McMillan, I should consider TreVeyon Henderson or Hunter Henry on the other side.
Other notes: Zay Flowers cracks the top 10, Nico Collins draws attention, but I prefer Christian Kirk at lower price and ownership. Amon-Ra St. Brown sits below 10%, making a Jared Goff—ARSB stack appealing for contrarian leverage.
At tight end, the field is gravitating toward the Rams–Colts game, with Tyler Warren approaching 20% ownership — nearly double everyone else. Brock Bowers sits around 15%, and while this sets up nicely for him, I remain equally inclined to pivot back to Tre Tucker. The leverage spot that jumps out is Cole Kmet at near 0% ownership and only $3,000 on DraftKings — perfect for a Caleb Williams stack.
Defense shows the familiar trend of seeking the cheapest options to make room for Christian McCaffrey. For my builds, this isn’t necessary given my leverage running backs. The Saints top the list despite facing Buffalo, but I want no part of that. The Chargers at $4,000 and around 5% ownership offer the best combination of matchup and leverage against Jaxson Dart.
Where I’m Landing
After working through the ownership dynamics, my primary approach is centering on the Ravens–Chiefs game but with strategic pivots based on ownership patterns.
My core is becoming Derrick Henry on FanDuel and Lamar Jackson on DraftKings, running it back with Tyquan Thornton for his ceiling at minimal ownership. I’m prioritizing TreVeyon Henderson across builds as an early breakout candidate at 1% ownership, and I’m finding ways to fit Alvin Kamara when possible.
The key insight I’m leveraging is ownership distribution: while the field focuses on rookie running backs and expensive quarterbacks, I can capture elite talent at discount ownership rates. Henry under 10% ownership, Lamar in the top five but not chalky, and Thornton as a complete afterthought creates the foundation for differentiated tournament lineups.
When I need salary relief, I’ll consider Omarion Hampton only with Chargers defense, but I’m finding myself more interested in paying up for proven talent at leverage ownership rates.
I’ll be going to a Goff and St. Brown lineup as my secondary. And a Williams and Kmet for my third lineup if I keep building. These lineups are built to provide maximum ownership leverage.
