TNF DFS Showdown
Buffalo @ Miami (-2.5)
O/U 48
Tonight, we have an exciting showdown as Buffalo heads to Miami. Both teams boast explosive offenses, but their defenses were shaky in Week 1, making this a closely matched contest. With the total set at 48, I believe we’ll see enough scoring to comfortably hit the Over.
Key Notes for Tonight:
- Miami’s Backfield Situation: Raheem Mostert is out, and De’Von Achane is dealing with an ankle issue that will be tested pre-game. This creates a potential opportunity for Jeff Wilson to take on a bigger role in Miami’s offense, and I expect him to be a popular choice among DFS players.
- Buffalo’s Wide Receivers: Rookie WR Keon Coleman is one to watch tonight. He led the Bills in Week 1 with the most routes run, targets, and receiving yards. At just $5,800, he’s a solid value pivot. Don’t overlook Dalton Kincaid either—after a quiet Week 1, he’ll likely go under the radar, but he still has upside.
- Miami Tight End Spotlight: Julian Hill led Miami’s TE group in snaps and routes in Week 1, though he only caught one pass. Still, at just $600, his usage makes him an intriguing option for roster flexibility, and he won’t be highly owned.
Captain Choice: Josh Allen
Josh Allen is my top captain pick for tonight. While he’ll be highly owned, sometimes you have to eat the chalk. He’s thrown for over 300 yards and 12 touchdowns across his last four games against Miami. Given the Dolphins’ struggles against the run in Week 1, Allen’s dual-threat ability as a runner makes him even more valuable.
Achane’s Status:
If De’Von Achane suits up, he’s one of the top plays of the night. Buffalo’s defense struggled against James Conner in Week 1, and Achane has the potential to match or exceed that performance. His role in Miami’s passing game also gives him added value. If Achane is inactive, consider Jaylen Wright as a dirt-cheap flyer with upside.
My Favorite Captains
Josh Allen
Jeff Wilson
Best Flex
Tyreek Hill
De’Von Achane
Tua Tagovailoa
Jaylon Waddle
Dalton Kincaid
Value Plays
Both Kickers
Jeff Wilson
Julian Hill
Keon Coleman
Sample Lineup
CPT Jeff Wilson Jr., RB $3,600
FLEX Tyreek Hill, WR $11,600
FLEX Josh Allen, QB $11,000
FLEX Tua Tagovailoa, QB $9,400
FLEX Jaylen Waddle, WR $8,600
FLEX Keon Coleman, WR $5,800