Danger’s Chalk Board |Ownership Pivots Week 9
Starting a new article, where Jonny Danger looks at the slate through the eyes of expected ownership, letting you know what players he’s fading and what players he’s eating the chalk on.
Ownership is extremely important in DFS – we’ve talked plenty about being able to leapfrog the field if you’ve got a low-owned player that booms while a highly-owned player busts. But we also know what really matters is the uniqueness of your overall lineup, meaning you can have several chalk players as long as you structure your lineup in a unique way or have one or two low-owned pivots.
Settle in as Danger gives you his weekly analysis, with plenty of lessons along the way. He’ll be using DK as the starting point, then letting you know what’s different on FD.
Quarterbacks
Hurts, Lamar, and Dak will be the go to for the masses. I’m off Lamar as I don’t think they need him to carry the load and either of the other two are great, but if you’re looking for a pivot…
Draftkings- CJ Stroud, a disappointment last week but I’m hopping right back on. I have him as my #4 projected QB on the week at a deep ownership discount. Tipsy Pick at QB this week: Mac Jones as a deep flyer
Fanduel- if Dak actually comes in at a quarter of ownership on FD as Hurts and Lamar he is a near lock… Stroud is even better pivot value off Lamar and Hurts on FD. Not playing Mac with FD pricing but Jordan Love is flyer material…
Running Backs
Draftkings- 20% ownership guys are Chuba, Bijan, Kamara and Jacobs. I’ll pass on 3 of 4 but pay up and eat chalk for Kamara. I’m looking to save salary and dip from chalk by going Walker or White with Kamara. Both top 10 in my rankings but coming in 30-40% less owned. Tipsy Pick punt play in Devin Singletary…
Fanduel- Pollard sneaks in over Kamara in ownership but the other 3 stay as favorite targets for the masses. Still eating that Kamara ownership though and again passing on the other guys. I’m here for White and Stevenson instead with few shares of Swift if I build lineups without Hurts/Brown. Punt play Singletary sparingly as well on FD.
Wide Receivers
Draftkings- Brown, Douglas, Collins, Thielan, Lamb… all Chalk and honestly… fine to play even at the ownership, I favor Lamb at the top. Only Douglas scares me at second highest owned… I’m going down to Eli Moore or Wan’Dale for a pivot or up slightly to Michael Thomas. DJ Moore keeps popping in my models, that’s interesting. Devonta Smith just seems due… and looking at sub 5% ownership while A.J. will be at over 20%
Fanduel- Brown, Adams, Nico, and Evans make up a clear tier of top ownership. Lamb is a lock Pivot from Brown and Adams while a simple switch to Godwin could be the move from Evans. Lockett, Downs and Hollywood Brown provide excellent salary relief with low ownership and Michael Thomas is again under priced.
Tight Ends
Draftkings- Schultz, Andrews and Njoku are getting all the ownership love. I’m not finding room in my budget for Andrews so I’m lining up Ferguson or Pitts and if I need more value dropping to Logan Thomas.
Fanduel- Ferguson and Goedert come in on the high with those mentioned above, so back to well with Pitts and I actually like paying up for Hockenson…
Kmet is in play on either site as well.
Defenses
I’m rolling cheap but if you want to pay up it’s the Saints or Ravens for me. Otherwise be a bottom feeder with the Rams or Vikings.
Cheers!