Danger’s Chalk Board – Week 6

Starting a new article, where Jonny Danger looks at the slate through the eyes of expected ownership, letting you know what players he’s fading and what players he’s eating the chalk on.

Ownership is extremely important in DFS – we’ve talked plenty about being able to leapfrog the field if you’ve got a low-owned player that booms while a highly-owned player busts. But we also know what really matters is the uniqueness of your overall lineup, meaning you can have several chalk players as long as you structure your lineup in a unique way or have one or two low-owned pivots.

Settle in as Danger gives you his weekly analysis, with plenty of lessons along the way. He’ll be using DK as the starting point, then letting you know what’s different on FD.

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Highest Projected Owned QBs

Matt Stafford- $6100
Joe Burrow- $6300
Trevor Lawrence- $6500

None are over-owned necessarily and the price is right for any of them. The issue with Stafford isn’t his salary but the salary of his main 2 targets and THEIR ownership projections. Kupp at 9k and Puka at 8k tie up a lot of salary and both will be top 5-6 owned plays. It’s not impossible to build a Stafford stack with both guys but it forces some plays I don’t like to round out my lineup and if Kyren has the big game you destroy your win equity. On the other hand I don’t want to build with just 1 of them and be wrong on which one blows up.

Locking in QB value might not really be necessary but if I go value it’s Burrow of these three or punt down to Baker at home against a Lions team missing a ton of starters. I’m more inclined to take a Tua/Hurts at much lower ownership than any of these three.

FANDUEL clear pivot to Burrow off top ownership

Highest Projected Owned WR

Addison $5700
Chase $8300
Downs $4100
M Brown $5300
Kupp $9000
Lockett $5700
Nacua $8000
Collins $5600
Kirk $5400
Hill $9300

We could see Addison at over 20% owned and at under 6k he has plenty value per dollar equity, however for $200 more I’m pivoting to Thielen. He projects for more points in a higher scoring game and at half or less ownership.

With Chase I’m here for the Chalk, I don’t think anyone has a higher ceiling and if I play him on his own without Burrow he is an easy pivot off paying further up for Hill or Kupp.

I typically am fading high owned value plays like Downs. Watch the concussion news for Tank Dell and if he is out bump up a pivot play to Robert Woods or Metchie…

I’m pivoting to Adams in the high end salaries, DJ Moore is in another great matchup and the Eagles should move AJ Brown all over the place and avoid Sauce regularly. Brandon Aiyuk is in play at sub 6% with a great ceiling for his price.

Dart thrown on Curtis Samuel for salary savings is in play.

FANDUEL clear ownership advantages for Chase, Thielan, and DJ Moore

Highest Projected Owned RBs

Etienne $7100
Swift $6100
Mixon $6300
Williams $6500
Mostert $6400
Kamara $6800
Jacobs $7000
Montgomery $7300
Pierce $5100
Hall $6000

I’m eating most the Chalk in the 6k range but hear me out… avoid top ownership in WR and pay up for CMC… yes he’s expensive but so crazy under owned for a guy that has shown the ability to score every TD for the Niners in any given game. Pair him up with R Johnson and you can still fill out the WR nicely. I am starting most builds with Kyren as a pivot off the high priced WR in LA, Mostert or Kamara, or even 2 of those three.

FANDUEL locked in on Mostert and Kyren Williams to fade the chalk.

Highest Projected Owned TEs

Pitts $3500
Ertz $3600

How easy is it to avoid both of these when ownership is so locked in? Very… move all that love to Logan Thomas. Easy pivot. LaPorta and Hock are just too much for me. I’m playing with no one besides Thomas this week.

FANDUEL still points to Logan Thomas

Highest Projected Owned DST

Vikings and Patriots are the highest owned on Draftkings and I’m a full fade of both. I’m paying up for 49ers or dropping all the way to Tampa Bay.

FANDUEL leverage looks to mostly be in The Raiders camp.