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NFL DFS: Thursday Night Football Showdown Week 15

Spread: San Francisco -3.5
O/U: 43

The 9-4 Niners travel to Seattle for an NFC West showdown with the 7-6 Seahawks.  San Francisco can clinch the division with a win, while Seattle needs the win to improve their chances of playing post-season football.

In two starts with Brock Purdy under center, the 49ers have focused on the run As for Seattle, they’ve been the polar opposite in the last month of the season, ranking #2 in passing rate since Week 11. Given these tendencies, I will be focusing on the 49ers’ run game in builds where I project the Niners to play with a lead, and in that same build, give a boost to Seattle pass catchers.

Captain/MVP Picks

Christain McCaffrey

Over the last two weeks, since the Brock Purdy era began, CMC is playing 77% of the snaps and averaging 20.5 touches per game. Seattle’s defense ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush and dead last in rush yards per game allowed over the last four weeks.

Stack with: Seattle’s passing game. Geno Smith + 2 Receivers

DK Metcalf

Metcalf leads all WRs in red-zone targets (22) and has scored four TDs in Seattle’s past six games. A 49er elite run defense, should result in Geno Smith attempting a high number of passes, which is good news for Metcalf’s ability to reach 100-plus receiving yards.

Stack with: Geno Smith and Christian McCaffrey

FLEX Picks

Brandon Aiyuk

In games without Deebo in the lineup going back to 2020 when Aiyuk entered the league, he’s averaging 15.4 PPR points per game.

Geno Smith

Seattle is one of the league’s most pass-centric offenses, and Geno has been consistent all year, posting 20+ DK points in five straight games. While not a great matchup on paper, Seattle will not be able to run the ball and will have to pass to succeed.

Tyler Locket

Using the same logic as DK Metcalf in Captain, Seattle will have to throw the ball to win.  Lockett is Geno’s favorite target between the 20’s and should see a high volume pf passes. He is also a little more expensive than Metcalf on DK, so I prefer him in the flex.

Brock Purdy

Purdy is just too enticing at his discounted salary to ignore completely. I don’t see enough upside to roster him at Captain, he will dump the ball of a lot to McCaffrey, making him a good stacking partner.

Value Picks

Jason Meyers

Myers is averaging 9.4 DK points on the season in Showdown contests. If we see the Seahawks have success moving the football but stalling in the red zone, Myers has an opportunity for 2+ FGs.

Jauan Jennings

With Deebo out you can expect Jennings to start in the WR2 role for San Francisco. He is only $3600 on DK, meaning he doesn’t have to do much to pay off his salary and he provides much needed salary savings.

Good Luck and join us in Discord!

Recent News

Broncos penalty gives Colts second chance, win
The Colts snagged a 29-28 victory after kicker Spencer Shrader converted a 45-yard field goal with no time remaining, but only after badly missing a 60-yard attempt that was negated by a Denver personal foul moments earlier.
(Sep 15 -- ESPN)

Follow live: Tyler Allgeier scores first TD of game to pad Falcons' lead
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Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell said J.J. McCarthy suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 2's loss to the Falcons and is unlikely to play vs. the Bengals.
O'Connell said McCarthy came into the facilities on Monday sore with an ankle sprain and added that the team doesn't anticipate him playing in Week 3's game against the Bengals. McCarthy struggled again in his second career start on Sunday night against the Falcons, throwing for 158 yards and two interceptions while also taking six sacks and losing one of his three fumbles on the night. O'Connell has already said the team is preparing Carson Wentz to start on Sunday, suggesting McCarthy missing this week is all but a lock. We'll see if anything changes when the team's first injury report is released, but for now, we would expect to see Wentz into center into a game that is now the battle between backup QBs.
(Sep 15 -- NBC Sports)

Jake Browning: Looks set for significant run
Browning appears set to take over as Cincinnati's starting quarterback for several weeks, with Joe Burrow (toe) slated to undergo surgery and expected to be facing a three month recovery timetable, ESPN reports.
(Sep 15 -- Rotowire)

J.J. McCarthy: Week-to-week due to sprained ankle
McCarthy is considered week-to-week after he sustained a high-ankle sprain during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Falcons, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
(Sep 15 -- Rotowire)

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