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Tipsy Picks

Tipsy Picks Week 6

Tipsy Picks Week 6

Extreme values. Miracle dependent plays. One-off shots off the beaten path!

You’ll need a few beers or a stiff pour of bourbon to stomach these picks…

Fear not, the videos will return in week 7!

Let’s crack that beer and dive right in!

 

Tipsy QBs

(I finally am quitting Daniel Jones… bring Eli back! But I was so right on Carr!)

I’m not sure I can call any QB picks tipsy this week. They simply make sense! So instead of pure price let’s look at ridiculously under-owned guys.

Gardner Minshew II $6,400 vs DET (3.3%)

Detroit is giving up the 5th most points to QBs, the 8th most points to WR, and for that matter the 3rd most points against the RB. This screams STACK to me but the ownership at 3.3% makes it seem maybe I’m on an island here? Minshew has basically hit floor value every week but 1. I feel he’s safe on that level and has a reasonable ceiling in this matchup at home against a perennially disappointing Lions team.

Ben Roethlisberger $6,700 vs CLE (2.7%)

Frankly, I am baffled by this… The Browns are bottom 5 against QB and the WORST against giving up points to WR… This is like a slam dunk! Do I really need to explain this? Load him up with JuJu, Claypool, or if you want to differentiate, I’m more than good with James Washington.

Carson Wentz $5,600 vs BAL (0.7%)

Ok I lied… this is as Tipsy as it gets! But let’s figure there will be no running game against this Ravens D, and that Baltimore should win easily and that Wentz will have to throw 40 times? I can’t be convinced to go any lower in salary, so if you want to save money, and play someone literally no one else is, lock him in!

Low Salary Favorite

Ryan Tannehill $5,900 vs HOU (15.3%) is crazy underpriced but the market recognizes that with the highest project ownership of the QB’s

 

Tipsy RBs

Gibson’s game script turned on him and with Alex “Check Down” Smith in they moved to more McKissic… BUT! Man was I right on Chase Edmonds!

Adrian Peterson/D’Andre Swift $4,700/$4,500 @ JAX (0.5%/0.5%)

This is a game script choice. If you believe in Vegas saying the Lions are 3-point road favorites then you think Peterson will be heavily involved in ball control. If you think, like me, that Jacksonville is clearly the better team and that there will be classic Lions garbage time in the 4th quarter than you need my man Swift in there! He’s practically a lock for me. I must be into the bourbon now to be recommending Lions players in any fashion…

Phillip Lindsay $4,300 @ NE (4.3%)

I hate this matchup and I am not actually a fan of this guy but when you get a lead back, due to Gordon being ruled out, for almost bare bottom pricing you have to at least consider it. He was a thousand-yard rusher in 2019 and has been competent in the lead role in the past.

Mike Boone $4,000 vs ATL (0.5%)

I want action in this game but all the pieces are going to be chalk and highly owned. Mattison was active and used even while Cook has been lighting the world on fire, so the Vikings will mix Boone in. Mattison is also not the workhorse Cook was so I think Boone will see more of the mix than Mattison saw behind Cook. At rock bottom price I like him to differentiate more than I like Kyle Rudulph or Irv Smith. Can’t forget about Boone’s DFS BOOM that one time… lol

 

Tipsy WRs

Watson was on his way before he got hurt and Preston Williams was FIRE!!!!

Damiere Byrd $3,500 vs DEN (2.9%)

I can’t quit a guy that is one of 11 players to still be averaging over 90% of snaps played and hit nearly 4x value 2 of 4 weeks played with 9 and 10 targets those weeks! He seems to be ok with Cam or whoever behind center and you won’t find a WR this low with that much usage!

Cordarrelle Paterson $3,200 @ CAR (1.0%)

If Chicago wants to win they need to get creative in the running game against the worst run D in the league. Patterson has the ability to line up in the backfield as well as gadget plays and one would think this is a week he will see more of such plays. Add in the possibility of a Punt or KO return for a TD and you have some value here.

James Washington $4,200 vs CLE (0.1%)

See above why I love the PIT passing game and consider that Diontae is out. Claypool had a magnificent week that likely will not be repeated and will garner extra attention. Look for Washington in the red zone to contribute this week; he’s the absolute best way to get a piece of this offense without overpaying.

Tim Patrick $4,500 @ NE (1.9%)

Gordon has been ruled out so the DEN passing game usage will get a tick up. Patrick is probably my favorite player on offense for the Broncos and at sub 5k and under 2% owned he will find a way onto my lineups.

 

Salary Saving TEs

Irv Smith- $2,500 high volume offense as the team’s 4th most targeted player

Trey Burton- $3,100 Doyle has been a non-factor and Mo is out

Darren Fells- $3,800 Akins may not play and this team loves the TE spot

Tipsy Defense

I’m paying up at DEF this week, but if you want to go low…

Cincinnati $2,100 – Any team against Rivers gets Pick-6 upgrade! (worked last week!)

Recent News

Jaylen Warren rushed 11 times for 37 yards in the Steelers' Week 1 win over the Jets, adding two catches for 22 yards and a touchdown on two targets.
Warren had 13 touches to Kenneth Gainwell's 10, and 25 snaps to Gainwell's 27 in what was a fairly even timesplit. It was a disappointing share of the offense given the quotes about him being the featured runner, but Warren will remain the main red zone back for Pittsburgh and neither back was all that effective against the Jets' run defense. Seattle will be another tough test in Week 2 for PIttsburgh's run game, with Warren looking like a low-end RB2 for that one.
(Sep 7 -- NBC Sports)

Tyreek Hill caught 4-of-6 targets for 40 yards in a Week 1 loss to the Colts.
The veteran was open over the middle of the field a few times, but had little room to run after the catch. Tua Tagovailoa also didn't have much time in the pocket or show much of a desire to push the ball down the field, so this Dolphins offense looked a lot like the offense that put up middling fantasy value for much of last season. Hill was obviously not happy with the team's performance as CBS announcers caught him complaining on the sideline during the first half. It's hard to see Tyreek as a WR1 in fantasy right now, and you have to wonder if the Dolphins may consider trading Hill away if the season continues like this.
(Sep 7 -- NBC Sports)

Michael Penix completed 27-of-42 attempts for 298 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' Week 1 loss against the Bucs, adding six rushes for 21 yards and a touchdown.
Penix acquitted himself well against Tampa despite missing Darnell Mooney (shoulder) and Drake London for the final couple drives of the ballgame. He made a handful of strong throws to the boundary that Kirk Cousins is simply incapable of making. Penix executed screens to Bijan Robinson early in the game, one of which went for a long score. The slow-footed quarterback somehow stretched across the goal line late in the fourth quarter on a fourth and goal after nearly connecting with London twice in the end zone.
(Sep 7 -- NBC Sports)

49ers LB Fred Warner exited Week 1 against the Seahawks after suffering an apparent injury.
Warner came down hard on the right side of his chest with his arm extended upward. It could be a shoulder injury, or something involving one of the smaller joints on either end of the collarbone. He jogged off the field under his own power and headed directly into the blue medical tent.
(Sep 7 -- NBC Sports)

Braelon Allen rushed six times for nine yards and a touchdown in the Jets' Week 1 loss to the Steelers.
It wasn't pretty and the Jets got much more traction outside, leaving Allen's inside pounder role mostly ineffective, but he managed an eight-yard score in the red zone to deliver for fantasy managers. Going forward, Allen will probably have better matchups, but with only 20 of the Jets' 60 snaps, this was a game that screamed "touchdown-reliant FLEX play" rather than "RB2." The Bills have a rebuilt defensive line and should be an interesting test case for Allen in Week 2.
(Sep 7 -- NBC Sports)

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